At least a good portion of them had done something other than be useless on the ground.
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There is a flip side to the increased losses; it’ll drastically reduce the likelihood of the Japanese contracting victory disease. Currently the attack on Pearl seems roughly in line with their expectations; iirc they expected to lose about two carriers’ worth of planes and crews. It’ll be interesting to see how well they think the raid has gone, given they don’t have otl to compare it to.
Right now, they are claiming 3 sure kills (Utah, Oklahoma and California) 2 probable kills (Nevada, West Virginia) and the rest of the PacFlt Battle line severely damaged and in the yard for 18-24 months. That is what the Japanese pilots will be claiming at lunchtime
As of right now, we can only count about 70 to 80 aircraft, and that is still one carrier, but below the Japanese estimates.
And more importantly, the Japanese pilot losses for each aircraft downed is gonna stick, the American losses less so. The American pilots had a better chance to survive considering home territory and their well armoured aircraft, considering the Devil Dogs had lost 11 aircraft but saved 5 of the pilots, probably meaning the American aircraft were more likely to let the pilot bail out rather than sticking them until they slam into the Hawaiian soil.
And Japanese aircraft are pretty much infamous for their habit of going up in flames even with .50 cal tracers.
The loss of valuable, slow and difficult to replace pilots begins fiir Japan. The Japanese Navy did not see losses like this until Coral Sea OTL.
Japanese losses over Hawaii are probably 100 to the loss side, considering even if a Japanese pilot is gonna bail out, which is rare, they are probably gonna face a whole firing squad of angry Americans and sent to a PoW camp. If that even happens that is.
Maybe there is a chance the pilot can be saved near the carriers, but the machine is lost.
As I understand, the Japanese are so low on fuel as it is that if they do have to accelerate to battle speed, at bare minium they are losing every destroyer in the fleet. A prolonged period and you're writting off the battleships and the carriers as well...
Realistically you'll have about 50% of the shot down American pilots surviving in good enough shape to return to the fight sooner or later from the battles over Oahu. The two Marines picked up at sea just had good luck. If there are strikes against the Japanese fleet there will be organized efforts to find downed aircrew, here was just luck. With the Japanese, don't forget that a large percentage of the lost Japanese aircraft had more than one aircrew member. Sure navigators/bombardiers/radiomen/gunners don't require as much training as pilots, but they are not simply thrown in aircraft. Just like the pilot training program, the non-pilot training programs of Japan will simply be unable to replace them in quantity. If your bombardiers are not well trained, the strike is wasted, if your navigators are not good - there are no road signs over the Pacific.
And the lost Japanese crew are primarily gonna be shot down over Oahu, Pearl Harbour, and the Pacific Ocean, and with the literal paper metal skin that the Japanese planes are made out of, it is pretty much a miracle if any of those crew can bail out without being set on fire and burning to death, or their aircraft was such a state that it crashes properly without being some movie car from an action movie.
If I read right, for pilot and aircrew losses, this will be worse than OTL Midway.
In air losses, considering at Midway the Japanese lose all their aircraft due to their carriers going to the bottom floor of the Pacific...
Well, at least Kimmel and Short (General, not Admiral) are going to have better endings to their careers than OTL; granted, Pearl was still attacked, but, while still awful, it wasn't as bad as OTL (and they weren't caught by surprise), so they'll end their careers somewhat better ITTL. They're still going to be relieved; they were in charge at Pearl Harbor, and someone has to take the fall for that, but they'll have better reputations ITTL...
I see Josh becoming one of the first Medal of Honor winners in the Pacific here; the U.S. is going to want heroes at Pearl Harbor, and someone who broke up some of the initial Japanese attacks is going to be well-liked (to say the least) by the American public...
I see Josh becoming one of the first Medal of Honor winners in the Pacific here; the U.S. is going to want heroes at Pearl Harbor, and someone who broke up some of the initial Japanese attacks is going to be well-liked (to say the least) by the American public...
According to Navweaps: Kido Butai lost 29 planes to all causes over Pearl Harbour. A total of 55 aviators were lost, including those in aircraft that returned to the carriers. An additional 111 planes were damaged of which twenty were later written off." IJN losses are obviously much greater here, with more aircraft damaged, more of those damaged not getting back to the carriers or being useless if they do, and those just shot down and lost. As to capturing an intact Zero, that's up to Fester. Two links below.
http://www.navweaps.com/index_oob/OOB_WWII_Pacific/OOB_WWII_Pearl_Harbor.php
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niihau_incident
http://www.navweaps.com/index_oob/OOB_WWII_Pacific/OOB_WWII_Pearl_Harbor.php
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niihau_incident
IIRC, Niihau had no idea that Pearl Harbour was being shredded so they just helped the Japanese pilot and his Zero out until a couple of informed realised what happened and caused a incident.
Driftless
Donor
All-American tale: Son of a coal miner, college boy, Marine hero.
(Marine Commandant to an aide: Place a call to Frank Capra or John Ford.)
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