Italy stays with the Central Powers: Entente Victory Still Happens?

[Ahab]

Churchill stole their two battleships, so it's not happening. Also they later promised Russia the Straits in writing.
The High Cost of Two Battleships: Churchill, Turkey and a Decision that Still Effects us Today

He could decide to give them something else instead, and surly Libya and Rhodes are worth more than two ships..
What he promised to Russia is not a problem, its not the first time the British promised something that they didn't plan to keep. A Turkish strait is much preferable from British pov, so the promise to Russia would be forgotten after the war.
If Italy enters the war on the side of Germany then the British would offer anything for the ottomans and Bulgaria to join them.

 

[VoidStalker]

Bulgaria would want a slice of Serbia, I think they had some claims on Greece as well. Ottomans, well between Russian Caucus region and Egypt there is more the CP can offer than the Entente- and it is possible the CP could setup a return Rhodes in exchange Italy gets a French colony.

Plus seeing Russia who has long been the biggest threat cut down would be of interest to the Ottomans. That said depending on what route the Goben takes Ottoman entry could be delayed a bit

 

[Gar48]

Italy joining the CP between 1914-1915 means:

1. Rome still sells grain and other food to the Central Powers. This could mean no submarine blockade as Italy was one of the main grain producer in Europe at the time

2. More Austrian and German soldiers are free to be used against Serbia and Russia. So an earlier defeat of both countries and involvement of Bulgaria is very likely.

3. When Serbia collapses, no ships are going to wait for Peter I and his soldiers in Albania. OTL Italian ships were the first ones to reach the Albanian coast thanks to the short distance between the two countries

4. The French aren't going to move their troops from Nice and Savoy because Rome is attacking

 

[Clandango]

What if an early Italian entry cause the Ottomans to join the Entente?
The entente can now offer them Rhodes and Libya, maybe border corrections in the Caucasus and Arabia. Thus the straits stay open.
The ottomans choosing the Entente means that Bulgaria also join the Entente, and so does Romania. Serbia might never fall in this scenario, and the romanians will do much much better with no southern front.

Corrections in the Caucus? It means giving up Georgian and Armenian land and I don’t see the Russians wanting to give up much of anything, especially when protecting Christians from being massacred was their excuse for their influence in the Ottoman Empire for the past half a century. I also feel they would not want the the Ottomans in, at least without getting concessions for themselves. Think like how the Allies against Napoleon near the end did not want Saxony to join in as the Prussians wanted to annex them entirely.

I also feel that Bulgaria and Romania cannot be guaranteed to join, as they were up in the air during WWI in which direction they would fall. Really, where is Bulgaria going to gain land if the Serbians keep refusing to give them any of Macedonia? The Bulgarians did not trust the Entente for the promises they tried to make that they knew would not be honored. They also offered the Bulgarians part of Ottoman Thrace, but in this world they cannot even offer that. Hell, IOTL the Ottomans gave land wrapping around their old capital to the Bulgarians, but that was in order to get the Bulgarians much closer to joining their alliance, as well as to have German and Austrian munitions sent to Gallipoli to protect their current capital. Also, you are going to have issues with Young Turks and the pro-German members of the navy, army, and business class perhaps not going along with the Sublime Porte if they feel that this will simply end up with the Russians, Italians, French, and British which kept picking off parts of their edges also trying to buy up or take for cheap German funded railroads.

Hmmm, doing something with Labania might be interesting, actually. Bit of a trade to get some islands back from Greece for Turkey in exchange for South Epirus. Or if the Greeks and Italians both end up in the Central Powers, the Bulgarians and Turks now have plenty of common ground for targets.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian–Ottoman_convention_(1915)

 

[Ahab]

Corrections in the Caucus? It means giving up Georgian and Armenian land and I don’t see the Russians wanting to give up much of anything, especially when protecting Christians from being massacred was their excuse for their influence in the Ottoman Empire for the past half a century. I also feel they would not want the the Ottomans in, at least without getting concessions for themselves. Think like how the Allies against Napoleon near the end did not want Saxony to join in as the Prussians wanted to annex them entirely.

I also feel that Bulgaria and Romania cannot be guaranteed to join, as they were up in the air during WWI in which direction they would fall. Really, where is Bulgaria going to gain land if the Serbians keep refusing to give them any of Macedonia? The Bulgarians did not trust the Entente for the promises they tried to make that they knew would not be honored. They also offered the Bulgarians part of Ottoman Thrace, but in this world they cannot even offer that. Hell, IOTL the Ottomans gave land wrapping around their old capital to the Bulgarians, but that was in order to get the Bulgarians much closer to joining their alliance, as well as to have German and Austrian munitions sent to Gallipoli to protect their current capital. Also, you are going to have issues with Young Turks and the pro-German members of the navy, army, and business class perhaps not going along with the Sublime Porte if they feel that this will simply end up with the Russians, Italians, French, and British which kept picking off parts of their edges also trying to buy up or take for cheap German funded railroads.

Hmmm, doing something with Labania might be interesting, actually. Bit of a trade to get some islands back from Greece for Turkey in exchange for South Epirus. Or if the Greeks and Italians both end up in the Central Powers, the Bulgarians and Turks now have plenty of common ground for targets.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian–Ottoman_convention_(1915)

When I said border corrections in the Caucasus I meant minor ones in Kars and Batumi, not something huge, and even then the Russians could promise to hand it after the war but then to "forget" about this promise later on.
Regarding Bulgaria you are right that they don't have much to do without Greece joining the Germans, but if the ottomans join the Entente then Bulgaria would stay *at least* neutral, if not a friendly pro west neutral.
In regard to Romania, they joined OTL, the Ottomans joining the Entente and Bulgaria at least neutral means that they have a much simpler choice and a much easier fight as the would now have only one front and open supply lines.

 

[prester.john208]

Italy joining the CP between 1914-1915 means:

1. Rome still sells grain and other food to the Central Powers. This could mean no submarine blockade as Italy was one of the main grain producer in Europe at the time

2. More Austrian and German soldiers are free to be used against Serbia and Russia. So an earlier defeat of both countries and involvement of Bulgaria is very likely.

3. When Serbia collapses, no ships are going to wait for Peter I and his soldiers in Albania. OTL Italian ships were the first ones to reach the Albanian coast thanks to the short distance between the two countries

4. The French aren't going to move their troops from Nice and Savoy because Rome is attacking

Also Italy doesn't need to launch much of attack to tie down the French. Transferring three corps to Germany helps keep the right wing strong enough to at least win the race to the coast, if not win earlier. The Germans only came up a few divisions short in the otl.

6 more divisions for the German right and 6 to 7 less for the French left. That likely proves decisive. If the French African army units don't make it that's another 3 to 4 divisions missing from the French left.