Agreed that its not all that realistic. This is just my opinion, but the only way that you could really stop baseball from being exported is to prevent it from becoming as overwhelmingly popular as it was OTL in the late 19th/early 20th century. Pulling that off would probably require butterflying the Civil War from happening entirely. Baseball isn't really comparable to American Football in that way; for a few different reasons, the circumstances that lead to it becoming an almost exclusively US phenomenon don't apply.I could see an argument that baseball would be more peculiarly American ITTL, what without the hegemon there to export it across the Caribbean from the Gulf Coast (sort of like gridiron football). With rugby, football, and ice hockey being big internationally-influenced sports in the US ITTL, I could see baseball filling the niche of being the sport that only really gets played in the US. This is probably not hugely realistic though; a lot East Asia played baseball because it was brought by American missionaries as early as the 19th century (British missionaries brought football), and if it took off in, say, China it could be huge in Asia. Since part of the thought exercise here is swapping around certain countries in East Asia's trajectory with certain countries in Latin America's (and vice versa... more to come!), the idea of a football-obsessed and baseball-obsessed East Asia could be really interesting, where baseball players with names like Kim, Chang and Nguyen are just as common if not more as the Suzukis and Ohtanis of the world, and the MLB has far fewer Ramirezes and Gonzalezes.
You make a good point about Haiti probably having a decent baseball culture for the reasons you describe, as would Nicaragua probably; Cuba/PR/SD may be a different story. I guess it could be a thing where baseball makes an impact, but football is also big in those countries due to sustained Spanish influence, but the further south you go the "Baseball Belt" erodes a bit (and Mexico may have more of a baseball culture as spring training there rather than Florida may be preferable for parts of the MLB), though with more American influence maybe Peru and Argentina have a culture too. IDK! Too many options, can't decide! I like both ideas a lot.
I love the idea of China as a baseball power. If they have a less chaotic mid 20th century (The first decade and a half has certainly been much more so than OTL!), and better relations with the US/Japan as a result, its certainly not out of the question. The "Baseball Belt" makes a lot of sense too, at least in a Caribbean context. I'd imagine the Cuba/PR/SD trio would be similar to modern OTL Venezuela where baseball is #1, but soccer is a close 2nd. Then TTL's Venezuela could be somewhat akin to OTL Colombia: baseball is somewhat popular in certain regions, but soccer is the clear king. RE:Mexico, the more I think about it, the more I agree, especially with it being much richer and part of Spring Training being held there (great idea btw!). As for the South American nations, the idea of Argentina specifically being a baseball country has really appealed to me ever since I thought about it being a possibility; it could really help set the post-war narratives about the cultural similarities of the victorious alliance.
I should've been more clear; I was talking about WBC/World Cup style international tournaments here, not the minors. Although a different minor league structure is very interesting to think about in its own right. A question though: wouldn't US-Confederate relations preclude any direct minor league affiliate relationships being established across the Ohio? I could very well imagine that Dixie's nationalist impulse demands the establishment of a separate "major" league (in name only) of its ownAnd I do like your point about the minors maybe being bigger and more organic. I sort of tipped my hand on this in the 2022 World Series update but the PCL gets absorbed into the MLB rather than teams getting deported to the West Coast by greedy owners, so the minor league culture would probably be a fair bit different, and you'd probably have affiliates studded across the CSA, Canada and Texas as well as smaller American metropolitan areas.
A more Anglophile Japan might have football just be the dominant sport that everybody cares about; it was sort of heading that way before baseball nipped that in the bud. Ichiro Suzuki as a star striker taking the Samurai Blue deep into the World Cup, anyone?
It's a bit of a misconception that the US occupation pushed baseball to #1 status in Japan (although it certainly didn't hurt its standing there); it was already that way before the war. By the turn of the 20th century, it had already established itself as a very popular sport at the high school level. Fast forward a bit to the 1930s and you have Babe Ruth's famous barnstorming tour (which hundreds of thousands of Japanese fans flocked to) followed shortly thereafter by the establishment of the NPB, which as far as I can tell was Japan's first professional team sports league. This all happened at a time of rapidly deteriorating U.S.-Japanese relations! The NPB even continued to stage games throughout the war, much like its American counterpart. All of that is pretty remarkable stuff that surprised me when I first learned about it, and shows just how deeply the sport had ingrained itself in Japan's culture/society pre-WW2. That's why I made an exception for Japan in my first post; while the lack of an occupation might leave more space for soccer to popularize faster than OTL, it should be the likeliest non-North American OTL baseball power to remain one ITTL. That being said, Ichiro as a soccer superstar is kind of badass; he was certainly a good enough athlete to be able to pull it off.You can also make the argument that, while it was established in Japan well before 1945, part of the reason baseball grew in popularity in Japan was the US occupation in the late 1940s. That's obviously butterflied here. Baseball was still popular before 1945 but that occupation might have made an impact in growing the sport post-war.