Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

[GSD310]

Wow. Didnt know that the domestic immigration part was actually offered, wonder whats the ratio behind it considering tribal affiliations actually cross the border in the island

I suppose the reason is control of those coming in and out of East Timor. In the link I gave, it’s in article 18. It says there that even those without an East Timor ID card are subject to immigration.

If you read the OTL proposed autonomy for East Timor, there’s a lot of autonomy given there to the point that East Timor got quasi-independence.

Unlike other provincial police forces, The East Timor Police is responsible to the Governor of East Timor rather than to the National Police headquarters. Also, only those who have lived in East Timor for 5 years can get an East Timor ID card which sounds an awful lot like a requirement for a citizenship rather than an ID card.

That said, OTL Habibie and ITTL Try’s mindsets are different regarding East Timor.

Habibie decided to hold an independence referendum because he realized that even if his offer of autonomy was accepted, the issue of independence would not go away. He felt that it’s better to let go of East Timor sooner rather than later if the issue was not going to go away. He felt there was no point developing East Timor if the end-goal was still independence.

Try on other hand has no intention of letting go of East Timor. He’s willing to grant autonomy in the shape of a Special Administration Region status and all that that status entails but East Timor has got to turn its back on independence.

Incidentally, the idea of East Timor becoming a Special Administrations Region was floated to and rejected by Soeharto in the late 80s.

 

[GSD310]

22nd May 1999:
The Government spent the day explaining the deal that was reached between President Try Sutrisno and the governors. A press conference was held for this purpose attended by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat.

Harsudiono said that the deal the President reached with the provinces represents the President realizing his goal of keeping the central government relevant to the regions and to acknowledge the province’s contributions to the economy. He went further by saying that this shows that the Indonesia is a unitary state but it’s not a centralized state.

Ginandjar Kartasasmita predictably got questions about East Timor by foreign journalists. When asked whether the terms agreed with the Governor of East Timor represents a change in Indonesia’s policy towards East Timor, Ginandjar said that there’s been no change. East Timor will continue to be a part of Indonesia and that it will be more prosperous under the present government.

24th May 1999:
President Try breakfasted with Chairman of DPR Harmoko. Harmoko congratulated Try on reaching the agreement and said that this will strengthen his position. Try said that he’ll be sending some bills Harmoko’s way this will be the Amendment to the Regional Government Law Bill, the Fiscal Balance Between the Center and the Regions Bill and the 5 Special Administrative Regions bill. Try asked that the 5 Special Administrative Regions Bill be prioritized.

The Time Magazine with the feature article concerning the Soeharto children’s wealth begins circulation in Indonesia.

25th May 1999:
The President had a long meeting with Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi. Regarding Perta and Permindo, Djiteng informed that Pertamina now has majority shares in these two enterprises and that work will now begin towards dissolving the two oil exporting and importing Pertamina subsidiaries.

Try instructs Djiteng to get better terms for electricity contracts which had been put under review previous July. He says that this is to anticipate the economy getting better and the partners in these contracts will be more demanding of their rights.

Finally, Djiteng said that oil prices are tending to rise. Projected to be $10 per barrel at the beginning of the year, it is now floating around the $15-16 per barrel mark. This means more revenue from oil corporations but it also means more fuel subsidies to be spent. Djiteng advised that a cut to subsidies may be in order.

26th May 1999:
DPR member Hartono leads other members of the Hartono Caucus in requesting that President Try take decisive action against Time Magazine for their “slanderous” article.

From another part of the DPR building, DPR member Marzuki Darusman said that what readers can found in the Time Magazine article is common secret around Jakarta so there should not be fuss about anything.

27th May 1999:
The President attends an event at the Department of Tourism, Arts, and Culture hosted by Minister of Tourism, Arts, and Culture Soeyono to launch a campaign encouraging Indonesians to visit local tourism sites these upcoming school holidays. Try does not respond to questions regarding the Time Magazine article on his way out of the event.

Unnamed buyers begin to purchase stocks of the present edition of Time Magazine articles from outlets selling the magazine in a bid to take them from circulation.

28th May 1999:
Try chairs a National Security Committee meeting attended by Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Minister of Legal Affairs Albert Hasibuan, Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, and Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman.

On East Timor: Ginandjar said reactions to East Timor’s soon-to-be Special Administrative Region status internationally has been muted given that the world’s focus is on NATO intervention in Kosovo and the situation in Kargil at the moment. When the time comes, the UN and Portugal with others such as Australia will look to discuss the issue of East Timor with Indonesia.

Within Indonesia, Ginandjar said that he has explained to members of the diplomatic corps in Jakarta the implications of East Timor being a Special Administrative Region: Namely that the government has given this status with the expectation those within and outside of Indonesia would stop calling for East Timor’s independence. All at the table agreed that this was a reasonable expectation.

“As for me, I’ll look to go to East Timor and speak to the community leaders there”, said Try “We’ve only got a MoU with East Timor at the moment, I think regarding this case they will need to hear directly from me what I expect of them.”

On Time Magazine Article: Oka Mahendra informed the meeting that the two Indonesian journalists that had contributed to the Time Magazine Article are now out of the country and beyond the jurisdiction of the authorities. Wismoyo Arismunandar argued that some action should be taken against Time Magazine due to how close the article came to insulting President Soeharto and Mrs. Tien Soeharto. Harsudiono added that but given that the article had not actually insulted President Soeharto, the response should be proportional.

The meeting agreed that the non-Indonesian writers of the article be blacklisted and banned from coming to Indonesia and that Time Magazine be banned from publishing Indonesia for a period of a month, starting from the next week’s publication.

After the cabinet meeting, it was Ginandjar and Oka Mahendra who got the duty of speaking to the press.

As Oka Mahendra spoke of the steps which the government had taken, Harsudiono, Ari Sudewo gathered at Edi Sudrajat’s office to watch the press conference on the TV there. OCDS Sugeng Subroto joined them. The other members of Try’s inner circle had also been made aware of the Time Magazine Article before it was published.

“All things considered, Try’s taken the right decisions about the contents of that article”, said Ari Sudewo.

“Asking for slight modifications in the article in exchange for publication is a fair trade”, commented Sugeng Subroto.

“That too, but I’m not talking about that” continued Ari “I’m talking about how the article be made about Soeharto’s children rather than Soeharto himself. If the article was about Soeharto, Try would be in trouble, he’d be to easy to attack but if it was about Soeharto’s children…well, this is just making official what people already know.”

“It also sends the Soeharto children a message”, added Harsudiono “There’ll be no protection for them as long as they don’t stop undermining him.”

“Are they smart enough to get the message, though?” asked Edi.

31st May 1999:
The President today toured a Job Expo held in Jakarta accompanied by Minister of Workforce and Small Business Fahmi Idris. Fahmi reported that hotels and manufacturing factories are main participants of the job expo. Construction and property sector still underrepresented.

Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut Soeharto was surrounded by the media as she showed up for work at Golkar National Headquarters. She thanks the government for the action taken against Time Magazine but would have preferred it if the action was taken against the “offending” Time Magazine edition rather than against other editions.

Taking a microphone during a demonstration in front of the Indonesian Consulate General in New York, Jose Ramos Horta called the MoU signed between President Try and Governor of East Timor Clementino Dos Reis Amaral to be a deal “Struck in secret, in the middle of the night.”

1st June 1999:
Chief of ABRI Intelligence Agency Tyasno Sudarto cooperating with the Sulawesi Regional Military Command, the Central Sulawesi Police, and the Central Sulawesi Provincial Government conducted a mass arrest in Poso of those suspected of wanting to stir up violence. Among those arrested were Poso DPRD member and Christian militia strongmen Herman Parimo and Agfar Patanga, the latter being the writer of an anonymous letter saying that Christian officials at Poso were trying to stir up violence.

At the offices of the Department of Forestry and Environment, Try, accompanied by Minister of Forestry and Environment Barnabas Suebu presided over the inauguration of the Forest Police. This marks the first time the Forest Police will be an independent entity rather than a unit of the Police allocated to guard forests.

2nd June 1999:
President Try met with Minister of Education Wardiman Djojonegoro and Director General of Primary Education Indra Djati Sidi. The latter has been put in charge by Wardiman of reviewing and making amendments to the existing curriculum so that improvements could be put in place. Try approved of this and said that the complaints of the present curriculum is that it can prove to be stressful for the children so steps should be taken to rectify the situation.

3rd June 1999:
President Try attends the swearing in of Supreme Court judges presided by Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Sarwata. Among those sworn in were Abdul Rahman Saleh, who was a Notary, and Benjamin Mangkoedilaga, presently Chief Judge at the Jakarta High Administrative Court.

After the ceremony was over, Try spoke with Sarwata and Deputy Chief Justice of Supreme Court Ketut Suraputra. Sarwata was presenting Ketut Suraputra as someone who should succeed him. Try only smiled.

Chairman of ICMI BJ Habibie temporarily suspends Treasurer of ICMI Beddu Amang from his position. The announcement comes as Beddu, formerly Head of Bulog, was summoned by the Attorney General’s office to provide information about the landswap deal involving Tommy Soeharto.

Secretary of ICMI Adi Sasono looked none to pleased announcing this news a fact that was caught on by the press. Adi Sasono said that he agreed “in principle only” with the decision of the Chairman of ICMI.

4th June 1999:
Try had afternoon tea with JB Sumarlin while discussing the economic situation. Try talked to Sumarlin about his observations at the Job Fair and also Djiteng Marsudi’s report to him about oil prices.

“At this point the economic recovery really depends on tourism and exports”, said Sumarlin “And it can recover on the backs of those two sectors alone but plenty of people are going to be left behind in terms of economic recovery.”

Try and Sumarlin agreed that the steps Sumarlin is presently working on should be aimed towards energizing recovery across all sectos in the economy.. It was also agreed that there has to be cuts to fuel subsidies considering developments regarding oil prices. The Vice President agreed to wait until the beginning of the school holidays.

6th June 1999:
Try landed at Dili, East Timor accompanied by Edi Sudrajat, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, and Army Chief of Staff Agum Gumelar. They were welcomed by Clementino Dos Reis Amaral, Commander of the Nusa Tenggara Regional Military Command Kiki Syahnakri. Commander of Kostrad Johnny Lumintang was also there. Try inspected the troops stationed in and around Dili.

At the officers’ mess, Lumintang and Syahnakri provided updates on the situation in East Timor. They reported that larger population centers are secure and that there is an informal arrangement between ABRI and Falintil regarding cooperation to go after members of the Garda Paksi militia. Now the said militia is hiding in the mountains conducting hit and run raids.

Leaving behind Wiranto and Agum Gumelar, Try’s real meeting that Sunday had to wait until after lunch at the Dili Cathedral. The President, flanked by Edi Sudrajat on one side and Clementino on the other, met with East Timor’s most prominent figures led by Archbishop Carlos Belo and former Governor of East Timor Mario Carrascalao. Belo thanked the President for taking seriously the request.

“I want to reiterate that I approve of what you have requested, that the Governor and I’s agreement to the terms regarding East Timor has been put into the MoU agreed at the end of the Conference of Regional Autonomy, and that there will be a law regarding the Special Administrative Region of East Timor passed by the DPR to that end”, said Try.

All of the East Timorese in the room looked relieved and pleased as Try allowed what he said to sink in.

“But I want to reiterate what I told the Governor so that you can hear it directly for me”, continued Try “I want there to be no more demonstrations or protests or any disturbances perpretrated by those who wish for East Timor’s separation from Indonesia. I want the issue to be settled and to be considered as settled once and for all in this province.”

Edi Sudrajat, to whom the role of playing the Good Cop fell, began to talk. He reminded that the previous year, after the Dili Riots in June 1998, the President had made the point of wanting to improve conditions in East Timor but that he did not want to hear about breaking from Indonesia. He reminded about how 10 years prior, Carrascalao and Belo had attempted to ask the same thing of Soeharto but that Soeharto would not entertain the notion of a Special Administrative Region of East Timor. Edi concluded that certainly it’s a fair bargain if a Special Administrative Region could be established but that all notion of “separation” from Indonesia should be buried.

“We just hope that you would make good on your words 10 years ago that if a Special Administrative Region could be established, the issue of East Timor is settled and would not be disputed”, concluded Edi while looking at Carrascalao and Belo.

Carrascalao spoke next. He said that last year he and Belo would not rule out the issue of independence but that he would not get in the way of Try wanting to improve conditions in East Timor. He said he would be living in denial if he said that things had not improved since the Dili Riots. Not only that but Try is now preparing to upgrade East Timor to Special Administrative Region status.

“Yes, at one point Mr. Carrascalao and I tried to appeal to President Soeharto about Special Administrative Region Status and that we promised to never again broach the topic of independence if it was granted”, continued Belo “On the former you’ve outdone President Soeharto, Mr. President, but that leaves us with the task of fulfilling our part of the deal…”

Belo trailed off as he and Carrascalao became emotional. Clementino choked up as well.

Belo and Carrascalao had approached the Governor and lobbied for the latter to ask for East Timor to become a Special Administrative Region during the Conference on Regional Autonomy. Clementino was willing to try but believed that Try would keep the same line as Soeharto. The shock was that Try was willing to grant the status because all knew what Try would ask in return. That was the thing, they knew what Try would ask. They just didn’t realize that Try was willng to accept compromises in order to get what he wanted most.

After two decades of overt and covert campaigns for independence, it was all too much to take to contemplate what they were about to do.

“You need to make a decision and let me know”, said Try coldly as he stood up and began to leave “So I know whether the Special Administrative Region is on or off the table.”

Try spent the rest of the day looking at the conditions in Dili. The situation at the city was more conducive than when he visited last July. When the vehicle Try rode on drove over a nail, it was taken to a mechanics’ shop owned by a Javanese transmigrant but which employed locals. Try patted the owner on the back and said that job creation in Dili and East Timor was important.

Try returned to the hotel with Edi for rest and to get some paperwork done. It was dusk when Clementino arrived. Try and Edi sat down with him.

“They’ve accepted it, Mr. President”, said Clementino “Special Administrative Region Status for East Timor in exchange for the Province’s total commitment to being integrated with Indonesia and total denunciation of any notion of separation from Indonesia.”

---
Main highlights of the update are the handling of the “Suharto Inc.” Time Magazine article and the issue of East Timor.

I suppose the sight of Try getting closer to East Timor throwing away any notion of independence in exchange of Special Administrative Region Status will be unpopular to some of those dropping by this TL.

OTL, Try became Commander of ABRI in 1988, a time when the government was considering the idea of normalizing life in East Timor as opposed to running it as a giant military camp. Within the Try-led ABRI, there were two officers who adopted a more moderate approach to East Timor. These were Commander of Nusa Tenggara Regional Military Command Maj. Gen. Sintong Panjaitan and Commander of Operations in East Timor Brig. Gen. RS. Warouw. The former was the one who floated the idea of East Timor becoming a Special Administrative Region to Soeharto and had it shot down. The latter favored loosening of security restrictions for locals.

These two officers became discredited in an incident in 1991 when their men fired on demonstrators in Dili (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Cruz_massacre). In the aftermath, Soeharto decided to make the two of them fall guys. Try and Edi Sudrajat, the latter being Army Chief of Staff, failed to protect Sintong and Warouw by the simple fact that Soeharto forced his will on them while Try himself was put in a place where he had to defend what had happened in Dili, condemning the demonstrators in very strong terms. From there, control of East Timor passed to a faction of officers favoring a hardline approach on East Timor including Soeharto’s son-in-law Prabowo Subianto.

For more of the dynamics in East Timor during the late 80s, please read the following: https://books.google.co.id/books?id...nesia 1992 East Timor: the opening up&f=false

What’s happening in the ITTL is control of East Timor passing from Prabowo’s faction to Try in June 1998 during the Dili Riots (ITTL event, did not exist in OTL) and Try restoring some of that softline approach attempted in 1988 but still with the ultimate goal of East Timor still remaining part of Indonesia.

According to Sintong Panjaitan, Bishop Belo of Dili did imply that if Special Administrative Region status was granted to East Timor, the matter of East Timor would be settled. This can be found here (In Indonesian): https://books.google.co.id/books?id...atus daerah istimewa bisa diberikan,"&f=false

 

[Pilatypus]

Granting special region status to keep them in line is an acceptable compromise I think. It's really hard to root out insurgency so if the price is only some autonomy in exchange for stability and nominal control so be it. Local leaders have accepted the deal and I doubt the people still want to rebel since they got what they wanted, effectively self governance. If they continue to rebel then Indonesia will have the better face in international relations, showing the government had been willing to compromise and the locals are the ones who broke the agreement they themselves wanted. Try did good compared to OTL with this approach, not letting East Timor to secede is a good thing because it upheld the third point of Pancasila and not set any precedent.
I liked the time magazine section. Now that Soeharto is gone his family is fair game. There's opportunity here to discredit the family, then when their companies stock fell, the state can buy them for cheap

 

[GSD310]

7th June 1999:
President Try Sutrisno accompanied by State Secretary Edi Sudrajat and Governor of East Timor Clementino Dos Reis Amaral today headed west by land. When the President stopped at a foodstall to have lunch, the discussion was still about the East Timor community leaders’ commitment to turn away from independence. Edi asked if they can get the general populace to come along with this commitment. Clementiono said that they can but that the government should keep its end of the bargain.

“We will and we want those community leaders involved as pat of the advisory council we agreed on for East Timor, Mr. Governor”, said Try.

After lunch, Try and Edi farewelled Clementino. Not long after that they and their small entourage crossed over into East Nusa Tenggara arrived at Atambua. Try inspected the city’s hospital and the community health centers and noted what has gone right and what has gone not so right.

From Atambua, Try and Edi caught a short flight to Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara’s capital where they dined with Governor Herman Musakabe and discussed various matters in the province that needed solving.

8th June 1999:
After a walkabout at Kupang’s dilapidated food markets, Try, Edi, and Musakabe flew to Rote Island at Indonesia’s southern tip. The President spent most of the day on the island before flying back to Kupang and from there, to Jakarta.

While the President was on the edges of the archipelago, Gatra Magazine went to print with an interview featuring the Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut Soeharto. She was asked about the Time Magazine article and responded as follows:

“I make no excuses about the extent of my siblings’ and my own business activities. None whatsoever. I do however have a problem with listing and implying that such activities are corruptive and nepotistic. My siblings and I have worked hard at our businesses. We have provided employment for many and taking part in this nation’s economic recovery.

It’s unfortunate that there are those who are prejudiced against my siblings and myself. I guess it’s true what my father said that there will always those qho question your motives.


9th June 1999:
A slightly more tanned Try had a meeting with Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita. Ginandjar said that the international community, at least its members most concerned with East Timor, began to move after the statement from Mario Carrascalao and Carlos Belo. Now there will be a summit this upcoming 14th-15th June in Singapore to discuss the matter of East Timor and gain an agreement.

“The UN will be sending Jamsheed Marker and Portugal will be there as well”, explained Ginandjar “Australia would like to be involved as well as predicted and then of course, Singapore is the host. Lots of cables and messages being sent while you were in East Timor and East Nusa Tenggara.”

“5 days…that’s a little quick to prepare and hold a summit”, said Try.

“South Africa wants to attend”, explained Ginandjar “It’s on their account that this summit was convened at such speed. Nelson Mandela wants to do something before his term finishes on 16th June.”

10th June 1999:
Attorney General Soedjono C. Atmonegoro is seen distributing packets of cakes and snacks to staff members, receptionists, security guards, and cleaners at the Attorney General’s Office. There were even some for members of the media there. Soedjono said that since he began investigating the Bulog Land Swap Case he’s been getting a lot of anonymous gifts and envelopes. The gifts and envelopes containing cash he’s handed over to the Department of Finance and the BPKP, the cakes and snacks he’s distributing to those in the Attorney General’s Office.

“The investigation will continue and at a faster rate if I continue to get these gifts”, Soedjono said.

11th June 1999:
The President met with Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Soedradjad Djiwandono and Head of BPS Gunawan Sumodiningrat. The two reported a disturbing phenomenon. In cities people are selling their houses and either buying or renting smaller properties to pay for university tuitions, to cut on living costs, and to simply have extra money in the bank.

“Our conclusion is this, Mr. President” explained Soedradjad “The measures that we’ve taken so far, things like the stimulus package and the social welfare measures are all targeted against those who are in poverty or at risk of falling into poverty. The richest are okay and well-protected though they may sweat a little. But then we’ve got these people who are relatively affluent but for whatever reason have lost or are unable to find employment or are trying their hand in business by investing their own money.”

“We haven’t done enough for them”, said Try.

“Well, by limiting the damage of the loss in currency value we’ve limited the damage the crisis could have done to these people’s savings”, replied Soedradjad “It’s just that eventually they will run out of savings. We worry if they’re allowed to have more of their savings eroded and if they fall into dangerous territory that there could be social unrest.”

14th June 1999:
Ginandjar Kartasasmita took final instructions from President Try in the morning before departing on the short flight to Singapore. Waiting for him at Singapore were:

*Shunmugam Jayakumar, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs
*Jamsheed Marker, the UN Secretary General’s Special Envoy for East Timor
*Jaime Gama, Portugal’s Minister of Foreign Affairs
*Alexander Downer, Australia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs
*Alfred Nzo, South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation

The Six-Nation Summit on East Timor thus begun. All sides outlined their opening positions though all eyes were on Ginandjar, Marker, and Gama; Indonesia, the UN, and Portugal having been engaged in talks since in the mid-80s on Timor in their tripartite talks:

“The Indonesian government acknowledges having received the proposal for what it calls “Wideranging Autonomy” for East Timor from the Special Envoy last September. It has been studied and when the opportunity came during our nation’s recent Conference of Regional Autonomy, it was used as the basis for the MoU between the President and the Governor of East Timor and for elements of the Special Administrative Region of East Timor Bill presently before our parliament”- Ginandjar Kartasasmita.

“The “Wideranging Autonomy” which was formulated by myself and received by President Try last September is supposed to function as a means rather than an end. The end goal is not Wideranging Autonomy or Special Administrative Region, as Indonesia prefers to call it. The end goal remains consultation with the people of East Timor in the form of a referendum”- Jamsheed Marker.

“From afar, Prime Minister Antonio Gueterres and the Government of Portugal acknowledges the improvements in economic and social conditions in East Timor since the restoration of order following the Dili Riots exactly a year ago. It would underline East Timor’s integration into Indonesia if 5 or 10 years’ time, the Government of Indonesia holds a referendum and is able to secure a direct mandate from the People of East Timor for East Timor’s integration into Indonesia”- Jaime Gama

Ginandjar held his ground, armed with Try’s instructions to not budge an inch on the matter of the referendum. The idea of having a referendum in 5 or 10 years appealed to most around the table but Ginandjar cut that down by saying that “President Try is willing to withdraw from East Timor today if he has to face a referendum in 5 or 10 years. It would be a waste of Indonesian resources to develop the province only to face the prospects of possibly letting it go in the future”. At that point, Downer balked at the idea.

By the time the day’s meeting broke for dinner, a mindset had developed that it was difficult to stop Indonesia at this point. That Try had agreed to give special status to East Timor was a surprise. A comment was heard from one of the delegations that now that “Try has compromised, we have to compromise as well” before someone responded “Even if that meant burying East Timor’s prospects for independence?”

Back in Jakarta, Try was completing the last of his paperwork when Edi walked in looking quite serious.

“What’s up?” asked Try.

“Mr. President”, said Edi “The President of South Africa is on the phone for you.”

“All right, put him through”, said Try.

15th June 1999:
Those who had favored East Timorese Independence and international affairs observers alike wondered if Try was a diplomatic genius who took advantage of the international situation to pre-empt the world on the issue of East Timor. There was NATO’s intervention in Kosovo which just ended a few days prior as well as the Kargil War, a continually developing conflict between India and Pakistan.

While Try’s genius on foreign policy is questionable, that the timing favored Indonesia could not be denied. Bill Clinton and Kofi Annan's plates were too full for them to give sufficient attention to East Timor.

At the summit, Australia and Singapore tended to side with Indonesia. These two nations, whose diplomats and analysts spent a lot of time learning the inner workings of Indonesian politics said that Try remains the best person to lead Indonesia and that it would only give “ammunition to his political enemies” if he be unable to secure the issue of East Timor.

A position paper by Australia’s Department for Foreign Affairs and Trade argued that:

“The only way a referendum on East Timor’s future could perhaps be held at the present time is with a civilian president and with a worst-case scenario as regards the Indonesian economy.”

Thus it was that the Singapore Settlement, signed by all six ministers of foreign affairs agreed that the question of East Timor being a part of Indonesia was no longer up for questioning and that it would be settled with the passing of the Special Administrative Region of East Timor Law by the Indonesian DPR.

There were a few concessions that Indonesia agreed to which Ginandjar thought was just the summit’s way of saying that Indonesia was not going to have a “perfect day”.

-By the personal intervention of Nelson Mandela, President Try Sutrisno has agreed to release Xanana Gusmao from Indonesian custody. Xanana Gusmao would now live in South Africa.

-Governments and international organizations are under no obligation to give diplomatic recognition to but will also not hinder the activities of an East Timorese Government-in-Exile. Kofi Annan, with Jose Ramos Horta lobbying in his ear, asked for this.

-Governments and international organizations may set up representative offices in East Timor but this will be of a non-diplomatic nature without the usual diplomatic immunity.

---
Things moved fast in Jakarta following developments in Singapore. After the requisite consultations with Chief Justice of Supreme Court Sarwata, Try signed off on Xanana Gusmao’s amnesty and instructed Minister of Legal Affairs Albert Hasibuan to secure his release. This Hasibuan immediately did, the Directorate General of Corrections falling under his department’s purview.

Of all the things which Xanana asked for when he stepped out of prison, it was marriage with Kirsty Sword, his English teacher with whom he had been romantically involved. With cooperation from Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Xanana and Kirsty got married a Civil Registry Office. They even got a marriage certificate within an hour of the ceremony causing Harsudiono and Hasibuan to wonder out loud why aren’t all civil registry processes this quick.

In New York City, Jose Ramos Horta tearfully condemned the Singapore Settlement, tearfully denounced community figures in East Timor for going out with a "whimper", and announced the formation of the Timor Leste State Council which will function as the Timor Leste Government-In-Exile.

While pro-East Timor activists around the world howled in horror at what had gone on, Ginandjar Kartasasmita arrived in Jakarta at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport that night from Singapore. He immediately went to the VIP Room of the Airport where Try was waiting. Try shook his hand effusively when the latter arrived and the two sat down as Ginandjar reported the results of the summit to Try.

After a short meeting with the President, Ginandjar Kartasasmita held a triumphant press conference explaining the results of the summit to the public.

At the VIP Room, Xanana and his new wife was shocked to find that the President was sitting there. Try congratulated them both on their marriage after which Xanana asked his wife if he could talk alone with Try. Both stood in front of the TV watching Ginandjar’s press conference.

“Your Minister of Foreign Affairs has won you a famous victory”, said Xanana when his wife was out of earshot “I congratulate you, Mr. President.”

“Not a victory”, said Try thoughtfully “Just an underline on an issue already settled.”

Both were silent.

“You’ve been good to me, Mr. President”, began Xanana “When your men captured me all those years ago you spared my life and I’ll always remember that.”

Try nodded his head as Xanana took a deep breath.

“If my people’s destiny is not independence, I hope that you will be good to them as you have been good to me”, said Xanana visibly holding back tears.

Try felt a lump in his throat. Regardless of everything else, he couldn't help but admit that this was a worthy opponent in front of him.

At this time Edi Sudrajat stepped into the room saying that Xanana’s plane which will take him to Singapore, from where he will fly to South Africa, was ready.

“We’ll be watching you, Mr. President, even from afar”, said Xanana offering his hand.

“You will, I'm sure of it”, replied Try as he shook Xanana’s hand “Go. Your plane is waiting.”

Xanana and Kirsty-Sword Gusmao left the VIP Room escorted by an official. Xanana cast one last look back at Try before the doors of the VIP Room was shut to him.

---
That's how East Timor ITTL. I haven't thought far enough to know whether or not it's permanent but this is it for now.

The exchange between Try and Xanana is supposed to show personal respect even though the two men's respective goals were diametrically opposed. I've pointed out earlier that when Xanana was captured in 1992, Try who was then Commander of ABRI spared his life by deciding to come to Dili to take a look at Xanana rather than let his men execute Xanana. Xanana appreciates the gesture.

Next Update: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno goes international. Will be taking a look at developments in international affairs that are starting to diverge from OTL within the period November 1997-June 1999.

 

[GSD310]

Try did good compared to OTL with this approach, not letting East Timor to secede is a good thing because it upheld the third point of Pancasila and not set any precedent.
I liked the time magazine section. Now that Soeharto is gone his family is fair game. There's opportunity here to discredit the family, then when their companies stock fell, the state can buy them for cheap

At the very least it butterflies away Aceh's call for Referendum. OTL Aceh's demands for referendum is driven in part by East Timor's.

Regarding the Soeharto family, it's a delicate dance. That Tutut is the Chairwoman of Golkar is pretty, and will be, significant.

 

[GSD310]

Significant Developments in Other Countries During The First 18 Months of the Try Presidency (November 1997-June 1999)
​

Malaysia:
Malaysia’s struggles with the Asian Financial Crisis was made even more complicated by a power struggle that erupted at the top of its government between Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad and Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Finance Anwar Ibrahim. The power struggle originated as a result of the two men’s different approach to addressing the financial crisis. Mahathir favored an approach which sought to take measures to limit capital leaving the country while Anwar thought that an approach which will regain market confidence, perhaps by inviting the IMF, was required.

Both men used Try Sutrisno to justify their positions. Mahathir said that Try did things which the IMF or the international financial sector would not approve of with stimulus packages. Anwar argued that Try’s more populist steps were always within the context of adhering to prudent fiscal policy and banking reform which the IMF requested.

The two stalemated as Malaysia’s economy veered into recession and negative economic growth. In the midst of all this, the ruling UMNO Party held a special conference which dismissed both Mahathir and Anwar Ibrahim from their leadership positions. In their place, UMNO named Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as the new President of UMNO. Consequently, Badawi becomes Malaysia’s new Prime Minister.

Much to Mahathir’s pleasure, Badawi enacted capital controls to ensure the value of the Ringgit stops falling. Much to Mahathir’s displeasure, Badawi went after Mahathir’s pet projects and special treatments to those close to the Mahathir government. Anwar Ibrahim left UMNO and formed the People’s Justice Party (PKR). The PKR joined forces with the opposition parties to form the Barisan Alternatif (BA) standing in opposition to UMNO’s own coalition of the Barisan Nasional (BN).

Economic growth was -9% and unemployment increased from 3% to 4.5% as Malaysia also lurched into a political crisis with NGOs and mass organizations calling for what they call Reformasi. The argument being that it was Mahathir’s cronyism which had brought them into this crisis. With such sentiments from the people fuelling the BA’s popularity, Badawi began preparations to hold early elections.

Though their unemployment rate was still good when compared to Indonesia, the Malaysian Government drew annoyance from the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Department of Workforce and Small Business for cutting the intake of Indonesian migrant workers in March 1999.

Thailand:
Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai was elected Prime Minister in November 1997, just mere weeks before Soeharto’s death. Thailand’s Baht was the first currency which fell victim to the currency and financial crisis in the middle of 1997. Much like Indonesia, it called for IMF assistance.

In the face of populist opposition provided by Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Rak Thai, Chuan had remained steadfast to the IMF reforms citing Indonesia’s commitment to it as an example that Thailand should follow.

Singapore:
“I think that if you want stability in Southeast Asia, there has to be stability in Indonesia. If you want stability in Indonesia, then it has to recover from the present crisis. If you want to Indonesia to recover from the present crisis, you have to maintain a constructive relationship with President Try Sutrisno. It’s all well and good that the IMF Reforms are implemented -and make no mistake you have to give him credit for following the IMF Reforms to the law- but if he can’t fix pot holes in roads and there’s social unrest and someone else takes over who will not commit Indonesia like that, that is a scary proposition. Scary for Singapore and scary for a region that has been affected by this crisis.” –Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew to US Ambassador to Japan Walter Mondale in January 1998 when discussing the crisis’ effect on Southeast Asia.

Australia:
Prime Minister John Howard was in the middle of an election campaign when he sent Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Downer and former Prime Minister Paul Keating to help conduct the backdoor diplomacy which helped facilitate the agreement for the repayment of the BLBI banking bailout assistance originally initiated by Soeharto. This became ammunition for the Australian Labor Party, despite the fact that Keating was a Labor legend, that Howard cared more about Indonesia than about Australians. Votes shifted their way on this account.

On 3rd October 1998, an election was held and was as follows:
Liberal/National Coalition (Led by John Howard): 76 seats (Down 18 seats from the last election)
Labor Party (Led by Opposition Leader Kim Beazley): 71 seats (Up 22 seats from the last election)
Independents: 1 seat (Down 4 seats from the last election)

This was too close for comfort for the Coalition. In the months after the election, Howard’s allies began to abandon him as the argument that Howard’s diplomatic mission to Indonesia during the campaign as well as his intention to implement a Goods and Services Tax had caused the Coalition to nearly lose government.

After being approached by his highest-ranking colleagues,Howard said that he will hand over to Treasurer Peter Costello after the GST is implemented on 1st July 2000.

United States of America:
After surviving the Monica Lewinsky scandal, President Bill Clinton also survived impeachment by the US Senate and the House of Representatives in February 1999.

Though there were 23 months left until the end of his term, attention now began to shift to who would likely be Clinton’s successor. On 14th June 1999, George W. Bush, son of Clinton’s immediate predecessor George H.W. Bush, declared his candidacy for president and his intention to look for nomination from the Republican Party.

The odds-on favorite from Clinton’s Democratic Party was incumbent Vice President Al Gore. He declared his candidacy on 16th June 1999, delivering a speech which struck a balance between associating himself with the Clinton Administration’s achievements but which also promised he would not become embroiled in scandal. This balance received a positive reaction.

Gore’s team had originally cautioned Gore against associating himself with Clinton but Gore had insisted that he would like to keep a balanced stance regarding Clinton.

Sources close to the Gore Campaign said that the Vice President made up his mind about what his stance should be to Clinton after thinking carefully about an exchange he had with a “Foreign statesman who also had a complicated relationship with his predecessor”. Gore claimed he never solicited political advice from this foreign statesman, it’s just that their conversation got him thinking about his stance towards Clinton as he conducts his presidential campaign.

Gore would not disclose who this foreign statesman that he talked to was.

---
Mahathir never saw Soeharto fell from power as he did OTL. Part of why he moved so forcefully against Anwar Ibrahim was because he saw Soeharto fell from power. The Reformasi movement in Malaysia exists but it also lacks a Soeharto to compare Mahathir with.

I thought John Howard ought to experience some consequences for playing a part in facilitating the back channel diplomacy that led to the agreement about BLBI Repayments in ITTL's September 1998.

ITTL, Try went on a state visit to the United States in February 1999 but Clinton had to go to King Hussein of Jordan's funeral. This left him with Al Gore to meet and chat with.

Everything else is still as OTL.

 

[GSD310]

“The Try Offensive? [Laughs] I don’t know how you experts come up with such names to describe events.

But yes, you could say Try was on an “offensive” at the time. He reshuffled the cabinet in April and strengthened his political alliance with Sudharmono, Habibie and Harmoko; Then in May he cut a deal with the regional governments and then in late June-early July he struck a deal with...[laughs] and it’s always funny to me that Try seemed to have a tendency to cut these deals later in the month. I guess it’s natural if people thought he deliberately planned these things.

Oh no, I don’t think Try went out of his way one day and said this month I’m making a deal with this, next month I’m making a deal with that. I think the only one he deliberately prepared for was the Conference on Regional Autonomy.

With the others, I think the opportunities presented themselves and he took full advantage of it. That Try looked like a President who was politically consolidating his position was a happy consequence of what we was doing”.

-Interview with former Operational Control of Development Secretary Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Sugeng Subroto, 2016

- - -
Got something in the pipeline. Who/what will Try be cutting a political deal with next?

 

[GSD310]

16th June 1999:
“It’s important to note that this isn’t a victory, this is an underline to a question that has been settled two decades ago”, concluded President Try Sutrisno to the press gathered at Halim Perdanakusuma after he had welcomed Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita. This was the soundbite the television networks played over and over again that morning.

While this was happening on TV, the real Try was going over the work to be done with State Secretary Edi Sudrajat.

“There are two things waiting your attention. The Vice President has said that preparations for the next policy package is entering its final stages and that it could be ready as early as the end of this week, here it is for your review”, said Edi handing over a folder. Try went over it.

“The other one is from the Commander of ABRI. There’s a round of ABRI rotations coming up. ABRI Chief of General Staff Widodo AS will be hitting retirement age in August and Commander of the Kalimantan Regional Military Command Zainuri Hasyim has been elected as Governor of Central Kalimantan” said Edi also handing over a folder. Try also looked at it.

The highlight of the day was a luncheon which Try and Ginandjar Kartasasmita held for the Diplomatic Corps in which Try and Ginandjar explained the Singapore Settlement regarding East Timor.

17th June 1999:
The President visited Soekarno-Hatta Airport accompanied by Edi Sudrajat, Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, Junior Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Bacelius Ruru, and CEO of Garuda Indonesia Rini Soewandi. Rini reported the the financial situation at Garuda Indonesia has improved and efficiencies has been made.

From there, still related to transport, the President made an appearance at the Indonesia Moto Expo at Jakarta Convention Center. Here, Try and Edi were accompanied by Minister of Industry, Research, and Technology Siswono Yudohusodo and Chairman of the Indonesian Motor Vehicle Industry Association (Gaikindo) Benny Sutrisno.

As he walked and looked around the vehicles there, Try was told that car sales reached 392,000 in 1997 before dropping to 110,000 in 1998. At present car sales are already at around 70,000 and could reach the 140,000-150,000 mark for 1999. Try took it as a positive sign of economic recovery.

18th June 1999:
Try met with Head of BPN Jusuf Kartanegara who reported that he had had to remove some of the BPN’s provincial heads. Try said that if that was what it takes to lay down the law, that is what needs to be done. Try says BPN’s most important program is land certification and says that this needs to be accelerated.

At the DPR, debate over the Special Administrative Region of East Timor is underway. Hartono said that while he welcomes the Singapore Settlement he must criticize what Special Administrative Region status entails. He said that the government might as well give independence to East Timor and be done with it.

In other news CEO of Pertamina M. Arifin announced the dissolving of Perta and Permindo. From today, Pertamina will be conducting its own exporting and importing of oils without any intermediaries and thereby saving costs.


19th June 1999:
Try had brunch with his Four Horsemen on the back porch of the Presidential Palace. Try discussed about the policy package Vice President JB Sumarlin was working on and the upcoming ABRI rotation.

“What policy steps are involved in Sumarlin’s policy package?” asked Harsudiono.

Try told him.

“Then you have to work on that ABRI rotation first, Mr. President”, said Harsudiono “You didn’t consult with Wiranto when you reshuffled the cabinet but this time, perhaps a command rotation that goes his way?”

“Actually, it’s probably shaping up to be an important rotation”, interrupted Ari Sudewo “The ABRI Chief of General Staff is the no.2 position in the ABRI Headquarters. Add the knock-on effect of appointing someone new to that post and we’re probably going to see who are the most likely candidates for Army Chief of Staff.”

“Agum Gumelar’s not due for retirement for another 18 months”, said Sugeng Subroto “But you’re right, whoever fares well in this rotation is probably in line to be Army Chief of Staff.”

“What do you hope to achieve from this rotation, Mr. President?” asked Edi bringing the focus back to Try.

“I actually would like to settle the issue of which agency is paramount in terms of its role in intelligence”, said Try while looking at Ari Sudewo “And I want to come down in BAKIN’s favor.”

21st June 1999:
The DPR today unanimously passed the Management of Hajj Law much to the delight of Minister of Religious Affairs Quraish Shihab who attended the DPR session today. The law strengthens the existing Hajj policy (which includes the fare for hajj pilgrimage as well as transport and health arrangements during the pilgrimage) by upgrading its status from a Presidential Decision to a Law. The law also discusses the Ummah’s Perpetual Fund and makes it compulsory that the fund be subjected to audit by the BPKP.

Demonstrations were held today by the Independent Journalists Association (AJI) in front of the Department of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Building to commemorate the 5th anniversary of the bannings of Tempo and Editor magazines and Detik Newspapers for criticizing then-Minister of Research and Technology Habibie’s purchase of former East German naval boats.

Inside the Department of Information, Post, and Telecommunications, Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra said that the government has no intentions of overturning the bans but notes that Tempo and Detik continues to exist in the format of internet websites and that the government has no intention of banning the two sites without a legitimate reason.

22nd June 1999:
In a special ceremony at the Jakarta Fair and accompanied by Governor Sutiyoso, President Try signed the Special Capital Region of Jakarta Law passed the previous week by the DPR.

After the signing ceremony, the President toured Jakarta Fair accompanied by Vice President JB Sumarlin by his side. Sumarlin asked him about the fuel price and the policy package. Try told Sumarlin to give him some time because had “political stuff” to settle first.

23rd June 1999:
Try had lunch with Commander of ABRI Wiranto. The two discussed various ABRI matters but most notably about the upcoming ABRI rotations. Wiranto kept a poker face when Try said he was still considering his decision.

“Just to help me make my decisions, though”, began Try “How’s your relationship with Lt. Gen. Yudhoyono?”

“It’s professional”, replied Wiranto betraying some anxiety “You’re considering him for the ABRI Chief of General Staff’s position, Mr. President?”

“Speak frankly about him, General”, ordered Try “I would appreciate the input.”

“Yudhoyono is an intelligent and he has good brain on him. Probably on the cautious side of things”, began Wiranto “But I wouldn’t rate our relationship as being like the one you had with Mr. Harsudiono when the two of you were Commander of ABRI and ABRI Chief of Socio-Political Affairs Staff.”

Try drank his tea while looking at Wiranto, expecting him to continue.

“We still need him, though, Mr. President”, obliged Wiranto “Some of the officers that support him tend to sympathize with Prabowo Subianto as well. If we get rid of him and he along with those officers might go over to Prabowo as well.”

Not too close with Yudhoyono, probably sees him as a rival but still sound enough to realize Yudhoyono is still needed, thought Try.

“And what about your relationship with the Chief of ABRI Intelligence Agency?” asked Try.

“Maj. Gen. Tyasno is a good choice”, explained Wiranto “He’s immensely proud of the institution he’s now heading.”

“I can see that”, began Try “He’s kept all the intel on Central Sulawesi to himself and hasn’t shared it with the Chief of BAKIN.”

“Well, the relationship between the ABRI Intelligence Agency and BAKIN is not something that’s formally codified…”, began Wiranto.

“You recommended him to me March last year and now you’re defending him”, interrupted Try “I get that, I respect that, and I’ve been in your position before but I don’t accept the precedent that he’s setting; that the ABRI Intelligence Agency is its own independent institution and that he gets to treat the Chief of BAKIN in this disrespectful way.”

“Understood, Sir”, said Wiranto.

“Don’t take this to be a reflection on you”, Try said “You threw in your lot with me the night President Soeharto died and I’m grateful for that. You’ll see the end of this term as Commander of ABRI, that much I can be certain.”

Wiranto eased as the conversation turned to Air Force Chief of Staff Djatmiko who will also be retiring soon. A successor was quickly agreed upon.

After Wiranto bid his farewell, Try summoned Edi Sudrajat in and told him about the conversation. The State Secretary was not so keen on Try’s promise that Wiranto will be Commander of ABRI until the end of the term. Try believes that Wiranto will be loyal as long as the “Other Side” also includes Prabowo.

“I agree with Wiranto on still needing Yudhoyono some of Yudhoyono’s supporters sympathizing with Prabowo”, said Edi “I’d also add that you still need Yudhoyono to balance Wiranto’s power, Mr. President.”

“You’re lobbying for Yudhoyono?” asked Try.

“He was my speechwriter during my final few months as Army Chief of Staff”, said Edi "I know him and would vouch for him."

24th June 1999:
Try entertained some very special guests, these being his predecessors as Commanders of ABRI. Posing for pictures with Try were Maraden Panggabean, M. Jusuf, and Benny Moerdani before the cameramen left.

The three guests spoke about their experiences as commanders of ABRI. Jusuf spoke about soldiers’ welfare but it was Panggabean’s experience that caught Try’s ear. Panggabean spoke about how he was by Soeharto’s side as the two conducted a reorganization of ABRI in 1969 which created an ABRI Headquarters and centralized command and control there.

After their meeting, Try saw his predecessors off. First Panggabean left and then Jusuf and then Try got a moment alone with Benny.

“You want to make ABRI Intelligence Agency subordinate to BAKIN”, growled Benny “Your call, you’re the President.”

“You’re always good at getting this type of information”, said Try and Benny smiled a little at the compliment.

“What do you intend to achieve with this command rotation you’re working on, Mr. President?” asked Benny.

Try explained what his goals were.

“No wonder you eyes lit up at talk about reorganization, because you knew that a command rotation won’t be enough”, said Benny “Yes, a reorganization is more suitable to your needs here rather than a mere command rotation. Reorganize first then do the command rotation.”

“Perhaps”, said Try.

“The old “President keeps his card close to the chest” trick I see”, said Benny “The 1969 reorganization was necessary because command was too widely diffused but it was also about Soeharto consolidating power not only over the Army but over the other branches of ABRI. The reorganization I worked on in 1984…that was genuinely about making ABRI more efficient. Both are extensive in their own way though I think yours will be closer to the 1969 reorganization.”

25th June 1999:
Sitting beside Prof. Dr. Asman Budisantoso, the Rector of UI, Try attended a graduation ceremony at the UI Campus in Depok. Try delivered a commencement address, saying that it was his wish that all university students graduating in 1999 will be the last to graduate in a economic crisis which got a loud “Amen!” from the graduands. Furthermore, Try also said:

“Not all can be successful and not all can be privileged. Some things remain the purview of hard work and perseverance. But the opportunity to be successful and to better one’s life is something that should be readily available to all. It is this equalizing of opportunity that the government is presently working on and unveil in due course.”

After the ceremony was over, Try sat in the Presidential vehicle with First Lady Tuti Setiawati, Edi Sudrajat and Deputy State Secretary Soedibyo Rahardjo. Try spoke about the results of his meeting with the past commanders of ABRI.

“A reorganization?” asked Edi “It makes sense politically, Mr. President, but I wonder how viable that is given we need our funds and resources for economic recovery rather than for creating new units.

“I think it can work, Mr. President, but it has to be well-targeted” began Soedibyo.

27th June 1999:
Being the dutiful soldiers, sailor, airman, and policeman that they are, Wiranto, Army Chief of Staff Agum Gumelar, Navy Chief of Staff Soeratmin, Air Force Chief of Staff Djatmiko, and Chief of Police Luthfi Dahlan said goodbye to their Sundays when they were asked to bring any “Proposed organizational changes in ABRI or in their respective branches” that may be lying around in their headquarters. Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar was also summoned to the Presidential Palace.

Together with Try, Edi, and Soedibyo, they worked at a plan for a reorganization of ABRI. For the President, the State Secretary, and the Deputy State Secretary the return to discussing military matters as opposed to other areas of policy was a refreshing one.

28th June 1999:
The President had breakfast with JB Sumarlin. They agreed that the Interdepartmental Committee on East Timor will be disbanded when East Timor officially becomes a Special Administrative Region.

Sumarlin reported that based on figures from Minister of Tourism, Arts, and Culture Soeyono, domestic tourism is flourishing this year built partly as a result of the upper middle classes avoiding overseas trips and choosing instead to spend money on tourism inside the country. Sumarlin advised that it would be a blow to tourism if fuel subsidied were cut now. Try agreed.

Try informed Sumarlin of his plans to reorganize ABRI. Sumarlin said that that was Try’s prerogative, that the numbers still make sense so he would not get in the way, and that ABRI’s support would be useful for what lay ahead.

29th June 1999:
Try together with Ginandjar Kartasasmita took a phone call from Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif from Beijing. Sharif appealed for support from Indonesia as a fellow Muslim nation in the Kargil War against India. Try called upon Pakistan to retreat back into its borders and do its part for stability in South Asia and Asia as a whole.

In a press conference, Edi Sudrajat said that the President has named V. Mshl. (Ret.) Teddy Rusdi Hayuni, formerly the Assistant of Planning at ABRI Headquarters during Try’s commandership of ABRI, to conduct a review into Indonesia’s intelligence agency and the way it was to be organized.

Wiranto watched this on the television in the office he was in and then cast his eyes back to Try sitting on the other side of the desk reading the contents of a folder containing the agreed proposed changes to ABRI’s organization and giving his approval by initialing each page.

The President initialed the final page and sighed with relief. He closed the folder and handed it to Wiranto.

“There you are, General,”, said the President “I look forward to hearing you explain these changes tomorrow.”

---
ITTL Wiranto is an interesting case. He holds the same exact position as in OTL but totally different dynamics. In OTL, he was by far the second most powerful man in Indonesia after Habibie but ITTL, he would invariably be the most junior in terms of experience when placed in the same room as Try, Edi, Ari Sudewo, Hendropriyono, Soeyono etc.

At present he supports Try not so much because of personal affinity, though his respect for Try continues to grow, but because Try was Soeharto’s constitutional successor. It’s a similar mindset to the one he had with Habibie OTL.

I’ve had Try conducting all kinds of political maneuvers in the past few months especially as regards the cabinet reshuffle, the agreement with the regions, and now his agreement with ABRI. Subconsciously it’s him pushing back at Tutut for undermining and disrespecting his authority.

The comment about Yudhoyono supporters tending to be Prabowo supporters is something I observe from what's happening in Indonesian politics OTL at the moment. It's rare for a Wiranto supporter to be a Prabowo supporter but there tends to be an overlap between Yudhoyono and Prabowo supporters. The current Chairman of the Prabowo campaign (Djoko Santoso) is better known as a close Yudhoyono ally rather than as a constant Prabowo supporter.

The 392,000 in car sales for 1997 comes from this blog which claims to cite Gaikindo figures (In Indonesian) https://blognyamitra.wordpress.com/2010/07/25/sejarah-industri-mobil-di-indonesia-bagian-ii-habis/

Up next is the reorganization of ABRI itself.

 

[Corax]

Ah such an interesting thing to see Indonesia doing relatively well compared to OTL in '98-'99. I have a question, what is the status of the University Student's movement? I would imagine that they would still protest though not as intense as OTL.

 

[GSD310]

Ah such an interesting thing to see Indonesia doing relatively well compared to OTL in '98-'99. I have a question, what is the status of the University Student's movement? I would imagine that they would still protest though not as intense as OTL.

You've just given me a chance to post some notes I have on this issue:

Student Movement:
Left Wing Oriented Group:
This group of student activists tend towards such issues as human rights, freedom of the press, environmentalism, legal assistance to the poor (LBH) and labor issues (ie. working conditions in factories). They are left wing in their orientation and some are known supporters of Budiman Sudjatmiko, the Chairman of the People’s Democratic Party (PRD), who still languishes in prison.

The celebrations at Soeharto’s death were replaced with a grim determination that the struggle must continue against Try. They were able to stage demonstrations in front of the Department of Home Affairs in late 1997 and early 1998 calling for political reform but found their numbers dwindling after Try revoked the National Car status from Tommy Soeharto’s Timor Business venture and stabilized the decline in Rupiah’s value.

Idealistically and not wishing to compromise, they sat out the 1998 MPR Session, claiming that any demonstration is susceptible to being taken advantage of by one of the four Presidential candidates.

After Try’s re-election, they continued to struggle. In meetings and discussions they increasingly found that it was difficult to mobilize. “If we look ridiculous demonstrating against the value of the Rupiah stabilizing, just imagine how much of a joke we will be if we demonstrate against the economy actually recovering”, commented an anonymous letter circulating in activist newspapers during this time.

It was thought that the activists and demonstrators kidnapped by Kopassus’ Team Rose would provide this section of the student movement with a cause with which to attack the government. While those who had been confirmed to die were commemorated, there were questions within this circle about the wisdom of demonstrating against someone (Try) who had uncovered the kidnappings and released those who could be released. It was pointed out that Try has bloodied his hands in the past at Tanjung Priok but Nezar Patria, who began developing a reputation as Try’s advocate in these circles, said that “The people who kidnapped us are as much Try’s enemies as they are ours”.

By late 1998-early 1999, they began to wonder about how they could stay relevant. From prison, Budiman Sudjatmiko advised that they should flock to Megawati Soekarnoputri. The argument made sense especially when they heard that Megawati was mobilizing her supporters so that she could take back the chairmanship of the PDI at its next congress scheduled for 2001. Budiman said that Megawati should be supported and then when she becomes the Chairwoman of the PDI, the activists could become legislative candidates in the next elections in 2002.

Mainstream Student Movements:
The more moderate and mainstream student movements, contained in the Student Senates of the respective universities and the Jakarta Student Senate Communications Forum (FKMSJ) realized quicker that the student movement was losing steam. In January 1998 the FKMSJ held a conference in Jakarta where they drew the conclusion that a combination of Soeharto’s death along with Try’s handling of the economy was giving less enthusiastic activists, not to mention non-activists, less and less reason to demonstrate. “The guy in the driver’s seat is no longer Soeharto and goodness me he’s actually working through the problems”, commented Heru Cokro a prominent FKMSJ member “If we take to the streets, what are we demonstrating against?”

It was agreed that whether or not there would be “regime change” it was better to play a constructive role with Try. This constructive role involved shifting the focus from political change to the issue of unemployment, something that was of more relevance for those graduating in 1998. On this issue the FKMSJ were able to get a decent demonstration (ie. large enough to begin blocking traffic) going at the Department of Youth, Female Empowerment, and Sports as well as the Department of Manpower and Small Business. The demonstrations got them meetings with Minister of Youth, Female Empowerment, and Sports Khofifah Indar Parawansa and the then Minister of Manpower and Small Business Oetojo Oesman.

In February 1999, University of Indonesia students demonstrated on the issue of unemployment but tight security meant they missed getting close to the Presidential car leaving the palace en route to Halim Perdanakusumah Airport for President Try’s visits to Canada and the US. They then came to the Vice Presidential Palace where the Chairman of the Student Senate Bachtiar Firdaus got a meeting with Vice President JB Sumarlin. Bachtiar read out a statement calling for the government to focus on the real economy and create employment for all especially for fresh graduates. Sumarlin said that their concerns are well-noted and that the government asks for more time.

In June 1999, Bachtiar Firdaus got to meet with President Try before a University of Indonesia graduation ceremony in which Try was due to attend and make a speech in. Bachtiar repeated his statement. Try said that he “Continues to work on the economy and will take nothing for granted.”

The Student Activist Who Managed To Get Into The Political System:
Fahri Hamzah, a Master of Economics Student at the University of Indonesia, saw the effects of Soeharto’s death using a more strategic scope. He believed that Soeharto had become more “friendly” towards political Islam in the last years of his life as evident by the establishment of ICMI but that Try would not necessarily be so friendly.

To his fortune, Fahri counted ICMI Secretary Adi Sasono as a close acquaintance. Adi agreed with Fahri’s analysis and thought it was part of the reason why Try could not be re-elected. During the 1998 MPR Session, Fahri frequented the hotels where MPR delegates stayed, would meet MPR delegates, and lobby on Habibie’s behalf. Fahri failed in this venture but got an ICMI membership and a position as Adi Sasono’s staff for his troubles.

---
To answer @Corax, yes the student movement is there but so far away from the point where they want to occupy the DPR/MPR building.

 

[Pilatypus]

So basically they don't have the casus belli like IOTL for the most part and for those they do have the government are willing to listen, causing the stance change for the cooler heads.

 

[Corax]

Ugh Fahri Hamzah that goddamn snake.

 

[Unknown]

I wonder, when this TL gets there and assuming Try is still in charge, how he'll react to the 9/11 attacks (the first word of the attack on the North Tower (1) will reach Indonesia between 7:50 and 8:00 p.m., Jakarta time on September 11 (2))…

(1) It will be seen as an accident, initially, until the South Tower crash, IMO...
(2) I'm going by the Time Zone Converter website; normally, it's a 12-hour difference, but 9/11 occurred during the Daylight Savings Time period, so add an extra hour...

 

[GSD310]

So basically they don't have the casus belli like IOTL for the most part and for those they do have the government are willing to listen, causing the stance change for the cooler heads.

There are also other pressures on the students as well. The rectors of the universities pretty much fell solidly in line behind Try once he got through the 1998 MPR Session and when it became clear that he was serious about handling the economy.

At home the parents are also influential. Lots of “Budi, the prices of items at Supermarket just stopped going all over the place. So don’t go cause any trouble that can cause the prices to go crazy again”.

Ugh Fahri Hamzah that goddamn snake.

Fadli Zon is also around as a Special Staff to the Governor of Central Java.

I wonder, when this TL gets there and assuming Try is still in charge, how he'll react to the 9/11 attacks (the first word of the attack on the North Tower (1) will reach Indonesia between 7:50 and 8:00 p.m., Jakarta time on September 11 (2))…

(1) It will be seen as an accident, initially, until the South Tower crash, IMO...
(2) I'm going by the Time Zone Converter website; normally, it's a 12-hour difference, but 9/11 occurred during the Daylight Savings Time period, so add an extra hour...

It’ll be a spoiler to tell you. Only thing I’m willing to say is that I’ll only know for sure how he’ll react as he gets closer.

 

[deepoceanblue]

Iirc it was around 5 or 6pm when 9/11 News started to air in indo. I remember having dinner when the news broke out and then switched channels to CNN to watch it unfold

 

[GSD310]

30th June 1999:

Report to the Department for Foreign Affairs and Trade, Canberra
From the Political Affairs Section, Australian Embassy in Jakarta​

The big event in Indonesian politics today was a joint press conference held at ABRI Headquarters this morning by Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Army Chief of Staff Agum Gumelar, Navy Chief of Staff Soeratmin, Air Force Chief of Staff Djatmiko, and Chief of Police Luthfi Dahlan. In it, it was announced that President Try Sutrisno has approved of “Amendments to ABRI’s present organizational structure”.

It became clear by the end of the press conference that the President had, after the cabinet reshuffle in April and the Conference on Regional Autonomy in May, come to a political agreement wih ABRI. That a reorganization had occurred was unexpected. Our sources in ABRI Headquarters indicate that the only ABRI-related matter due for attention from the President was an impending command rotation on account of the ABRI Chief of General Staff’s retirement and the Commander of the Kalimantan Regional Command’s election as Governor of Central Kalimantan.

The components of the reorganization are as follows:
ABRI Headquarters:
The position of the Deputy Commander of ABRI will be resurrected. The Deputy Commander of ABRI will also double as Commander of the Joint Operations Command (Koopsgab). The job description of the Deputy Commander include:
*Conducting joint operations, exercises, and other joint branches activities.
*Coordinate the activities of ABRI’s special units on behalf of ABRI Headquarters (The Army’s Kostrad and Kopassus, the Navy’s Marine Corps, Anti-Terror Detachment, and the Frogmen, the Air Force’s Special Troops (Paskhas), and the Police’s Mobile Brigade (Brimob).
*Hold command authority over the Fast Reaction Strike Force (PRRC), a unit containing Army, Navy, and Air Force units which has capability to strike anywhere in the archipelago within 24 hours of an order being given.
*Upon death or incapacity of the Commander of ABRI, be the Acting Commander of ABRI until the President chooses definitively to retain or remove him.
*This is a three star position and will be seconded by a Koopsgab Chief of Staff (two star position) and a staff.

Army:
In addition to the 10 Regional Military Commands, 3 Operations Command will be established to be commanded by a one star general:
*The Aceh Operations Command. Headquartered in Banda Aceh.
*The Maluku Operations Command. Headquartered in Ambon.
*The East Timor Operations Command. Headquartered in Dili

Upgrade the Army’s Education and Development Command commander slot to a three star position.

Expand the Army from 235,000 to 255,000 personnel

Navy:
Grant First Class Naval Base status to the following Naval bases which are presently commanded by Navy colonels but which will now be commanded by a one star admiral:
*The Tanjungpinang Naval Base headquartered in Riau
*The Pontianak Naval Base headqartered in West Kalimantan
*The Tarakan Naval Base headquartered in northeastern Kalimantan near the border with Malaysia.
*The Kupang Naval Base headquartered in East Nusa Tenggara

Integrate non-infantry units into the two Marine Corps Infantry Brigades to form two Marine Forces.

Increase personnel from 43,000 to 50,000

Air Force:
Give Type A Air Force Base status to the following Air Bases which are presently commanded by Air Force colonels but which will now be commanded by a one star officer:
*Ranai Air Force Base headquartered in Natuna Island
*Manado Air Force Base headquartered in Manado
*Merauke Air Force Base headquartered in Merauke

Create the 4th National Air Defense Sector Command within the National Air Defense Command based in Biak, Irian Jaya to be commanded by a one star officer.

Increase personnel from 21,000 to 25,000


Police:
Begin recruitment to increase Police personnel from 183,000 to 260,000

All Regional Police forces outside of Java to now be commanded by a one star officer.

The Irian Jaya Regional Police to be commanded by a two star officer to account for Irian Jaya's size.


The following initial analysis can be made from these developments:
-The theme of the reorganization is the creation of career opportunities rather than centralization or streamlining. The natural consequence of designating higher ranks to presently existing command slots or creating new positions is that more officers are required whether as commanders or staff members. This phenomenon is the real political deal in this reorganization; namely that Try is offering better career prospects in exchange for support for his government.”

-The President has been careful not to antagonize Wiranto or in take any steps which can be seen as undermining the latter’s position. The previous incarnation of the Deputy Commander of ABRI’s position is held by a four star officer which may create the strong possibility of tension and discord.

-We note with a wry smile that the Deputy Commander of ABRI’s other position as Commander of the Koopsgab is similar to the arrangements we have in the Australian Defence Force with our own Vice Chief of the Defence Force where he also doubles as Commander of the Joint command.

-The Naval and Air Bases which has had its designation upgraded are situated strategically facing to the north (Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, South China Sea) and towards the southeast (Australia).

-From a budgetary and economic perspective, this reorganization is still a responsible one. Most of the reorganization only involved shuffling around existing units to new commands. The only real new unit created will be the 4th National Air Defense Sector Command with the financial cost of forming the unit to be borne over multiple budgets.

- The cost of expanding the sizes of the four branches of ABRI would be born over multiple budgets. The Navy and Air Force’s expansion was cautious to avoid the impression that the government intended to buy the weapons to justify a larger personnel size.

-This is probably the first policy step Try has taken since taking office to have a slightly negative effect on the exchange rate, dropping below Rp. 4,600 to the dollar for the first time in five months. On a first impression basis, there is a perception that Try is directing funds towards ABRI rather than the economy within the market which he now has to counter.

---

The joint press conference held by the Minister of Defense and Security, the Commander of ABRI, the Chiefs of Staff, and the Chief of Police was followed after lunch with a press statement issued by ABRI Headquarters announcing the much anticipated ABRI command rotation. The highlights were as follows:

-Mshl. Hanafie Asnan was promoted to air chief marshal and becomes the new Air Force Chief of Staff.

-Lt. Gen. Johnny Lumintang was appointed to the newly resurrected position of Deputy Commander of ABRI/Commander of Koopsgab, leaving behind his position as Commander of Kostrad.

-After dealing with Team Rose and ridding the Kopassus of any pro-Prabowo remnants, Luhut Panjaitan was promoted to lieutenant general and becomes the ABRI Chief of General Staff, leaving behind his position as Commander of Kopassus.

-Tyasno Sudarto was promoted to lieutenant general and appointed Deputy Army Chief of Staff though this widely seen to be a consolation for him being removed as Chief of ABRI Intelligence Agency.

-Kostrad was handed over to Wiranto ally Djaja Suparman who was promoted to lieutenant general. Kopassus was handed over to newly promoted Maj. Gen. Srijanto who was Luhut’s deputy over the past year. As a captain, Srijanto was an officer involved with the Tanjung Priok Incident and an indirect subordinate of then-Commander of the Jakarta Regional Military Command Try Sutrisno.

-6 out of 10 Regional Military Commands changed hands. The most notable new commander was Maj. Gen. Agus Wirahadikusumah who becomes Commander of the West Java Regional Military Command.

---
I got the information for the ABRI reorganization by surfing through the Indonesian Wikipedia pages of the TNI and the Police and deciding what units will be expanded/created etc.

Yes, I ripped off the Deputy Commander of ABRI’s dual position role from pre-September 2007 Australian Vice Chief of the Defence Force job description.

The Naval Bases and Air Bases were given the designations ITTL at different times OTL.

Figures regarding personnel sizes comes from Realpolitik Ideology: Indonesia’s Use of Military Force by Leonard C. Sebastian p.228. Available on google books (https://books.google.co.id/books?id...age&q=leonard c sebastian realpolitik&f=false)

I thought I’d posted the ABRI-related stuff but I hadn’t. Have a great week ahead of you, folks!

 

[GSD310]

1st July 1999:
At the Presidential Palace, President Try Sutrisno swore in Air Chief Marshal Hanafie Asnan as Air Force Chief of Staff. Try also swore in Prof. Sjahruddin Rasul as Head of the BPKP, this second appointee will now function as the government’s internal auditor.

Appearing at daytime television, Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais had some choice words for the political consolidation that Try has been conducting over the last 3 months. He said that the cabinet reshuffle was only relevant for the likes of Harmoko and Ginandjar Kartasasmita, the deal struck with the regions was only relevant for the governors, and the reorganization of ABRI only relevant for the officers who had new spots opened for them.

“There is nothing relevant for the Indonesian people whatsoever”, said Amien.

2nd July 1999:
Accompanied by Governor of Jakarta Sutiyoso, Junior Minister of Urban Development Giri Suseno places the first brick for a new sidewalk at Jakarta’s Sudirman Road. Giri Suseno said that Jakarta, Surabaya, Bandung, and major cities’ sidewalks will be revamped to be friendly towards walkers and the handicapped.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita today resigned from his various positions with former President Soeharto’s foundations. Ginandjar said that he wanted to focus on his duties as minister of foreign affairs.

3rd July 1999:
Try had lunch with what he jokingly calls as his “shareholders”, those people whose cadres did well in the reshuffle. These were Chairman of DPR Harmoko, former Vice President Sudharmono, and former Chairman of Golkar Wahono. Chairman of ICMI BJ Habibie was invited but said he had other engagements. The others laughed at Habibie wanting to continue maintaining pretence of neutrality.

The three men agreed that Try stood on stronger ground now but agreed that the Chairwoman of Golkar remained a problem point.

5th July 1999:
Try attended a special event at Megawati Soekarnoputri’s house in the morning. There were a lot of important guests in the house, most notably Gen. (Ret.) AH Nasution and his wife. As President, Try sat in the seat of honor. Flanked on one side by Megawati and on the other by Nasution. To his surprise, Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut was also invited. She shook hands with Try and then sat in the front row next to Megawati.

It had been 40 years since Soekarno decreed the 1945 Constitution to be in effect and dissolved Parliamentary Democracy and it was this event that Megawati was commemorating. In her speech, Megawati said that the 1945 Constitution is the “common thread” that ties together Presidents Soekarno, Soeharto, and Try Sutrisno.

“I’d like to thank your Mr. President for coming to this event”, Megawati said as she concluded her speech “And I’d like to especially thank Mbak Tutut for giving this idea of holding this event to me in our meetings together and encouraging me when I doubt myself and ask if there’s any point of holding this event.”

Try perked up at Megawati’s mention of this and found that he didn’t like the idea of Megawati and Tutut having meetings with each other. He delivered a speech as the honored guest but spent more time distracted by Megawati and Tutut talking to each other.

As the official event ended and the buffet lunch began, Megawati and Tutut crowded around Nasution and Mrs. Nasution to chat with the two of them, leaving Try by himself. Try was saved by Chairman of Nahdlatul Ulama Abdurrahman Wahid who was having his hand held and was talking to by Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais. The three chatted together though Try and Amien was awkward. Wahid said that Amien Rais could be an asset to Try and calling on Try to put a Muhammadiyah man in the cabinet or on in one of the agencies. Try laughed while looking warily at Megawati and Tutut on the other side of the room.

When Try was leaving, he was seen off by Megawati’s husband Taufiq Kiemas because Megawati was still entertaining Tutut. Taufiq apologized that Sutjipto had resigned from the cabinet. Try told him calmly that “What’s done is done.”

6th July 1999:
A morning flight took Try to Samarinda, East Kalimantan. Once there, Try and his entourage were joined by Governor of East Kalimantan Awang Faroe Ishak. Together they took a small plane to the city of Bontang. Try went to inaugurate a granular urea fertilizer plant belonging to Pupuk Kaltim, a state-owned fertilizer company. The new factory had a capacity of 570,000 tonnes of urea fertilizer per annum and 660,000 tonnes of ammoniac per annum. After a speech, there was the requisite tour of the factory to go through.

After the factory, Try had a look around Bontang to look at the people and what life was like at the city. Awang Faroe Ishak was beside him throughout the day, profusely thanking Try for the agreement he had struck with the provinces.

From Bontang, Try rode his aircraft to Balikpapan, which was East Kalimantan’s commercial center. Before they reached Balikpapan, the President and his entourage stopped at the Balikpapan Agrotourism Center to inaugurate it. Try said that he was supposed to open the center as Vice President all the way back in December 1997 but circumstances intervened. After the Agrotourism Center it was off to Balikpapan where Try was to spend the night.

Try’s delegation for the trip included State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, Minister of Agriculture, Food, and Cooperatives Sarwono Kusumaatmadja and Minister of Industry, Research, and Technology Siswono Yudohusodo. The four had a meeting in Try’s room. Siswono said that the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), the nation's association of cement companies are appealing once again for the government to raise the price of cement given that cement is considered to be a strategic commodity.

“That again?” asked Try “The construction sector’s still recovering and they still want to raise prices?”

“Yes, Mr. President”, said Siswono “They’ve even sent your son to come and see me.”

“Don’t, even if they send Isfan”, said Try remembering that his son had an interest in one of the cement companies “This just makes the step we are about to take all the more justified.”

Siswono nodded while Sarwono butted in.

“In any case, those from the business community are glad that you’ll be giving them an audience next week, at least from the agricultural sector anyway”, said Sarwono.

“Speaking as someone who used to be a businessman, I agree”, said Siswono “It’ll be a chance for them to hear about what you think from your own mouth.”

7th July 1999:
Jakarta Post today carried as its headline a picture from the event held at Megawati’s house two days prior. It’s a picture of Try chatting with Abdurrahman Wahid and Amien Rais and then not far from that there was Tutut talking to Megawati, Nasution, and Mrs. Nasution. The picture shows Try and Tutut with their backs to each other. The Headline above the picture read: The Constitutional vs. The Biological Successor.

Meanwhile the President landed in Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan. He was welcomed by outgoing Governor of Central Kalimantan Warsito Rasman. With Minister of Public Works, Housing, and Urban Development Rachmat Witoelar now joining the delegation besides him, Try inaugurated Kahayan Bridge, a brige which spanned the Kahayan River which splits the city.

From Palangkaraya, Try hopped on a helicopter and toured the 1 million hectare of peatlands which Soeharto had wanted to convert into land that could be used for agriculture and transmigration. Of the 1 million hectares of peatland, 30,000 had been converted into cultivable land. Try wondered how this venture was going to end.

From there, it was back to Palangkaraya and a flight back home to Jakarta.

8th July 1999:
In a press conference Deputy State Secretary Soedibyo Rahardjo tried to dispel any notions that there was something wrong in Try and Tutut’s relationship. He brought with him a photograph of Try and Tutut shaking hands from Megawati Soekarnoputri’s event on 5th July and said this shows that the President and the Chairwoman of Golkar are getting along just fine.

Elsewhere, Secretary of Golkar ZA Maulani was able to pinpoint April 1999 as the last time that the President and the Chairwoman of Golkar met and that was to discuss the cabinet reshuffle. He was however unable to answer when asked if Tutut’s recommendation for the reshuffle was listened to by the President.

9th July 1999:
In a meeting attended by Try, Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Soedradjad Djiwandono, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, and Edi Sudrajat, Soedradjad produced a letter that had arrived the previous day from the IMF.

In the letter, IMF Director Michel Camdessus wrote that while the government’s performance in handling the now 2-year old crisis is extremely satisfactory, it warns against the government making commitments such as creating new military units as this will divert funds away from economic recovery.

“That was to be expected”, said Try “But there’s another reason why we should work towards getting this nation out of the crisis as soon as possible; so we can shake off the IMF.”

12th July 1999:
The DPR today passed the Special Administrative Region of East Timor Law 369 votes to 129 votes. There were jeers from members of the Hartono caucus as the law was passed. Hartono continues to claim that the government is “pretty much” giving East Timor its independence. He points to the provision of the law which calls or the appointment of an official who will reside in Dili and represents the central government. Hartono said that this is just another version of the governor general’s provision to which Marzuki Darusman, speaking on behalf of the government, responded that such arrangement along with many others are reflective of the unique status of East Timor.

13th July 1999:
Try had a three-way meeting with Minister of Legal Affairs Albert Hasibuan and Attorney General Soedjono C. Atmonegoro. The latter said that the case against Tommy has been prepared and that he could have his status changed from suspect to accused. Try gave his approval to the prepared case but said that he did not want to change Tommy’s status as yet. The two were disappointed but said they trust the President’s timing.

“Well, they’re a bit disappointed, Mr. President”, said Edi after Hasibuan and Soedjono left.

“They have a case, that’s for sure”, Try said “But I’m waiting for the right time.”

14th July 1999:
Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas announced that he has given approval for the PPP National Congress to be held on 29th August-1st September 1999.

Ginandjar Kartasasmita announced that the President has conveyed his congratulations to Prime Minister Ahmad Badawi on Barisan Nasional’s re-election, albeit with a reduced majority.

15th July 1999:
The President and Vice President JB Sumarlin today hosted 70 of Indonesia’s most prominent businessmen and businesswomen at the Presidential Palace. Try and Sumarlin mingled with the businesspeople over a buffet lunch and then the official proceedings began. Try and Sumarlin sat in front of the room facing the businesspeople whose seats faced them.

Try looked at the faces in the crowd. He saw Liem Sioe Liong, William Soeryadjaya, Eka Tjipta Widjaja who were well-established and are institutions in their own right. There were the likes of Aburizal Bakrie and Jusuf Kalla who were Ginandjar’s allies. The Soeharto family were represented by Bambang Trihatmodjo, Sudwikatmono, and Hashim Djojohadikusumo. Earlier he gave a slight nod to Tomy Winata, who was close to Edi Sudrajat and who the latter kept under strict watch so that he did not get preferential treatment from the bureaucracy. There was Setya Novanto who Try knew went to high school with Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman.

There was a microphone stand next to where the businesspeople sat and as Edi explained, they could ask whatever questions they wanted to the President. The first question came from Sofjan Wanandi who asked Try if he liked businesspeople and why was it so difficult to get a 1-on-1 meeting with him?

“It’s difficult to get a 1-on-1 meeting with me because I prefer meetings like this…and I prefer meetings like this because then you’re more reluctant to ask special favors from me”, said Try to a roar of laughter “But I think very highly of people from the business world. You create jobs, you help move the economy and there’s a lot to be admired. I think that people from the business world, the people in this room included, need a more predictable environment to do business in rather than special privileges.”

Try presented the friendly and charming face that those in Jakarta knew that he had as he answered all kinds of questions. If there were more technical issues, he passed the question to Sumarlin but the President most of the questions himself.

Then bearded Surya Paloh stepped to the microphone and asked the following question: “Mr. President, there are those of us in this room who have, how to put this, agreements and contracts with the government of President Soeharto. I was wondering if you could talk to us about how secure these past agreements and contracts would be during your presidency?”

Try smiled and spoke into the microphone.

“First of all, I just want to say that whatever agreements, whatever contracts that has been signed whether by those in this room or outside of it, with the previous government will be honored by the present government”, began Try.

“That said, if there are agreements or contracts that are not beneficial for the nation and if these agreements or contracts are reported to me, then I reserve the right to take action about it whether it be suspending, renegotiating, or even revoking the contract.

One of the things the government is currently working on are the electricity contracts. For the last few years, electricity contracts have been agreed to and development of electricity power plants. I think at present there are projects that are underway though there projects are delayed or suspended as per President Soeharto’s decision at the beginning ot the crisis.

But the terms of these contracts are not beneficial at all to the government. We’ve got the PLN buying electricity from these plants at exceedingly high prices. Exceedingly high prices. The PLN’s not in the best of shapes financially as it is so any losses on their end will have to be eventually taken on by the state.

If this is the case, I would be remiss in my duties if I don’t take any action. I don’t want to take your contracts from you but I don’t want something less than fair deal to go ahead.”

“Those contracts are legally binding, Mr. President, and our foreign partners are upset as it is that some those projects are delayed”, came the voice of Hashim Djojohadikusumo.

“I agree those contracts are legally binding...I think after renegotiations and with its renegotiated terms it will also be legally binding”, replied Try.

“And also why were those contracts originally signed when you now are saying that there are things that are wrong about the contract, Mr. President?” asked Hashim again.

“I think we shouldn’t apportion blame”, Try said not rising to the bait of blaming Soeharto “I think we should work our way through the problem and be on our way to economic recovery.”

When the meeting ended, it was said that these businessmen and women continued their conversation at some of Jakarta’s most expensive restaurant. Three groups emerged.

The first group genuinely felt that Try will be good for their businesses and for the nation (which in turn will be good for their businesses).

The second group felt that they should try to remain on Try’s good side because he’s the one in charge now though they will see if there are better choices around and make the switch should that other choice prove to be a good bet against Try.

The third group felt that their interests has been and would only continue to be damaged under Try. They promised each other that there would be another who would sit in Try’s chair after 11th March 2003.

---
The fertilizer factory Try inaugurated is actually inaugurated around the same time OTL. https://www.pupukkaltim.com/pabrik-profil-unit-produksi (It's in Indonesian under the title Factory 1A). The agrotourism park was inaugurated by Vice President Try Sutrisno OTL in December 1997. https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kota_Balikpapan#Tempat_Wisata.

The Kahayan Bridge was inaugurated OTL in 2002 (https://www.indonesia-tourism.com/f...888-Kahayan-Bridge-The-Palangkaraya-City-Icon). This will be something that will happen regularly ITTL. Because the crisis is not as bad, there are projects that become slowed down or stopped OTL but which continues on and is completed faster ITTL than in OTL.

For the sake of detail, I do a bit of research when it comes to the kunjungan daerah (regional visits) and I try to find out if there are anything for Try ITTL to inaugurate (bridges, factories, etc.)

Finally got a moment with Try with members of the Indonesian business community. Essentially his stance is "I will honor your contracts and your dealings with Soeharto but I have to do something if I see that it's an unfair deal"

Try's advantage over Soeharto is that out of his 7 children there's only one who got into business so I think he can be more impartial when dealing with the business world.

 

[Corax]

Ooh, business meetings eh. It's definitely an interesting dynamic.

 

[Pilatypus]

Well, businessmen have some of the greediest streak known to humanity so not surprising there are those who feels threatened. Rather than cooperate and contribute with the government to get out of crisis quickly to return to normalcy, they refuse to help even just a little bit and try to have short term profit.
How's the difference at this point regarding IMF's stance to OTL? What's the projection until Indonesia paid back the debt?

 

[GSD310]

At this point in time in OTL, Indonesian government and IMF’s relationship is a lot better than during Soeharto’s presidency. Habibie, With Ginandjar Kartasasmita as his Minister of Economics, is a lot better at fulfilling his commitments to the IMF than Soeharto.

The IMF ITTL continues to be very lenient on Indonesia. Try’s commitment to economic recovery and his willingness to go after special economic privileges given to cronies means he’s regarded sympathetically by the west. When Singapore and Australia lobbies the IMF and the US to be lenient, it is taken seriously. In OTL Singapore and Australia tried to lobby the IMF and the US to be more lenient on Soeharto but no leniency was given because Soeharto was still protecting Tommy’s car and clove monopolies.

When will ITTL Indonesia get out of the IMF program will depend on how the economy performs in 1999. My feeling when I imagine how the economy is doing at this time is that 1999 is doing better than 1998. Still plenty of time left in the year for Try and co to drive the economy out of crisis.

Just as a comparison OTL Indonesia got out of the IMF’s program in 2003 and paid all IMF debt in 2006.