If Sweden Won the Great Northern War

[PoeFacedKilla]

What would the effects on eastern europe and all of europe as whole if sweden were to win the great northern war? maybe if they could win a quick victory (within 10 years) they could have won?

If they did win, could the swedish empire have lasted, and how big would it get?
Could this effect the rise of Germany, and the russian empire?

 

[herricks]

What would the effects on eastern europe and all of europe as whole if sweden were to win the great northern war? maybe if they could win a quick victory (within 10 years) they could have won?

If they did win, could the swedish empire have lasted, and how big would it get?
Could this effect the rise of Germany, and the russian empire?

man i hope someone smarter than me answers this cus i want to know also

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

I don't know much about Scandinavia (then again, I'm a jack of all trades with history anyway) but my two cents, we will see the continuation of the Swedish Empire at the expense of Russia. It may also curtail plans of any sort involving a Russian navy. Now how bad it will be depends on how bad Russia and their allies lost considering it was a war Russia started and I'm not familiar with any territorial claims the Swedes might still have.

 

[Daylight Savings]

While the effects will be significant, they will not crush Russia and as long as there is a Russia it will be pushing west. There will be a another northern war and another until the point where the Russian army can stand up to the Swedish one or Russia assembles an alliance capable of defeating Sweden.

 

[The Ubbergeek]

Who had Finland back then? Maybe they would attack the balts region then...

 

[Daylight Savings]

Who had Finland back then? Maybe they would attack the balts region then...

Finland was a Swedish possession at that point.

 

[Flocculencio]

Sweden's performance there reminds me a bit of Japan in ww2- a power punching way above its weight, doing well through sheer ferocity and momentum but getting bogged down

 

[Martinus Paduei]

With a maximal Swedish win, would it be plausible to see:

a. The Russian frontier running through Lake Onega up to the White Sea;

b. The Poles losing the territory constituting the western parts of present day Latvia and Lithuania and the area around Danzig; and

c. Denmark losing Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Bornholm, the Faeroes, St. Thomas, the Danish Gold Coast and Tranquebar?

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Russ's may be hindered fom westernization.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Russia could still be a backward, pseudo-Asiatic power though Russia's Oriental character could be entrenched a lot longer, or Peter the Great decides to shift his focus on expansion eastwards.

 

[Fabilius]

With a maximal Swedish win, would it be plausible to see:

c. Denmark losing Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Bornholm, the Faeroes, St. Thomas, the Danish Gold Coast and Tranquebar?

Some of it yeah.

I don´t think Sweden would be particularily interested in the Faeroes and Iceland but... it might be like how Canada became British. The Danish would rather keep their other possessions and be quick to offer Iceland which the Swedes would say: Meh, but alright if you insist. Guess it comes with Norway.

--

I´d expect another Great Northern war at some point after this.

 

[Arachnid]

Russia is always going to be looking at the Baltic, the structural reasons for looking West aren't going to go away and sooner or later its going to have some good Generals and Sweden's (OTL astonishing but in this TL even more astonishing) luck is going to run out.

 

[von Adler]

It depends a bit on when and how the Swedes win. If Denmark stays out after 1700, they will not lose territory.

Courland is going to be annexed into Sweden.

Danzig and the other Polish ports will be controlled by Sweden, probably for 10 yeards, to collect the custom dues, for a 10 year period or so, as a war indemnity. Sweden had done this before). 1629-1635, the Prussian ports, including Danzig, provied about 1/3 of the Swedish income.

Poland will be a Swedish puppet to be used as an ally against Russia and Brandenburg/Prussia, should they get uppity again. This will be very hard to maintain in the long run, and will probably be the reason for the next war, the question is when.

I am assuming that Brandenburg/Prussia and Hannover (with Britain) never entered the war since the Swedes were winning, so no territorial gain on either.

As for Russia, Fort Kola and with it Far Karelia and the Kola Peninsula is possible - although, no-one put any real value in that land at the time, and it was too sparsely populated and lacked the infrastructure to support any kind of army - in fact, the first time an army operated north of Lake Ladoga was 1939! Sweden might want to annex Pskov, and extend the control of the Neva a bit, and perhaps control Novgorod for the trade as indemnity.

Karl XII and his government were very clear on Sweden not being able to swallow much more land. The only larger annexation beyond Courland Sweden would like to do would be Norway, but if Denmark keeps its head down instead of re-entering the war, that will not happen.

Karl XII was determined to finnish the war victorious, and show any comer that Sweden would rip their armies to shreds and see the war to an end, but he was not out for annexations or land as such. Gaining control of rivers and ports to collect tolls as an indemnity, and controlling Poland, was more than enough.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Russia is always bursting to expand somewhere, so if we block the North-West for some time, then there is either the South-West, Central Asia or the Far East. You could count the Caucasus but probably very difficult in this period.

Sweden might try to set up Ukraine, and/or Moldavia as satellites but these won't last long-term. There's still the Crimea of course

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Iserlohn]

With a maximal Swedish win, would it be plausible to see:

c. Denmark losing Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Bornholm, the Faeroes, St. Thomas, the Danish Gold Coast and Tranquebar?

Bornholm probably never again, the last time they held it they GAVE it back to Denmark because its citizen were revolting and killing Swedes.

The Danish colonies might be interesting however for Sweden (always looking for sources of income etc.

 

[Daylight Savings]

Russia is always bursting to expand somewhere, so if we block the North-West for some time, then there is either the South-West, Central Asia or the Far East. You could count the Caucasus but probably very difficult in this period.

Sweden might try to set up Ukraine, and/or Moldavia as satellites but these won't last long-term. There's still the Crimea of course

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

It seems more likely that Charles tries to set up Poland-Lithuania as a puppet through the king he forced on them and have the two countries hold together against future Russian expansion.

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

Well that is a considerable thought. Use the Ottomans, Poland-Lithuania and Sweden as buffers to Russian aggression, that will keep Russia's head down for a while.

Though probably not Moldavia...if I remember correctly, the area of Moldavia was Ottoman controlled.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Russia is always bursting to expand somewhere, so if we block the North-West for some time, then there is either the South-West, Central Asia or the Far East. You could count the Caucasus but probably very difficult in this period.

Sweden might try to set up Ukraine, and/or Moldavia as satellites but these won't last long-term. There's still the Crimea of course

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

The Far East would be the best option for Russia to expand in the event of a Swedish victory, though I also wonder if Peter the Great might end up being captured by Charles XII in a Swedish Poltava victory. There could be plenty of successors to Peter I if he was captured, though I suspect Alexis could easily roll back his father's Westernization Petrine reforms and enact his own style of reforms. Central Asia seems to be a good choice as well, though the Russians might be in danger of getting entangled too close with the Mughals if they reached Afghanistan.

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

^ This, plus the fact that Russia being closer to Afghanistan and thus Mughalistan would lead to reprecussions of a powerful scale when the other Europeans come a knocking.

 

[Blackfox5]

My understanding was that Sweden had basically defensive goals in the Great Northern War. It wanted to keep what it gained in the 17th century, and the other powers wanted to turn back the clock. Sweden's defeat of Denmark and Poland didn't give it much except that it pushed those countries out of the war, which means Sweden's goals were very limited towards them. The real question is what it gains if Russia sues for peace.

We know in 1707 that Russia offered to return to Sweden all of Ingria it occupied except for the St Petersburg area and access to it around the Neva. So Sweden obviously wants that back - but how much more? Probably not much for Sweden itself except monetary compensation and perhaps some minor border adjustments. The real issue is whether Ivan Mazepa of the Left Bank Ukraine will become the leader of an independent Cossack Hetmanate (not ruled by Russia) afterwards. If so, combined with a puppet on the throne of Poland-Lithuania, Sweden will have a good anti-Russian bloc for the rest of the 18th century.

Russia will likely renew hostilities at some point, but it'll be difficult if it has to go against an effective Sweden-Polish-Cossack alliance. Whether Russia could achieve control of the Baltics, Ukraine, and Poland as it did by the end of the 18th century IOTL is very doubtful.

The Treaty of Warsaw in 1705 said that Poland would grant Sweden its lands in Livonia and Courland (basically Latvia) in return for getting Kiev and Smolensk from Russia. A successful conclusion to the Great Northern War would likely see only these territorial changes. Besides this, it'll have two (uncertain) allies in Poland and the Cossacks. The real question is how will Poland develop under Stanilsaw Leszczynski and Swedish tutelage. If they can assert a modicum of authority over the Polish nobles, an independent Poland may exists throughout the period. This will have a major impact on history.

The only other change is that Sweden will remain a great power in Europe. Not on the level of Britain and France, but able to play a greater role than Prussia did, and Prussia did very well in the 18th century. But that merely means it plays the great game and fritters away its troops in the 18th century struggle between Britain and France which doesn't net Sweden anything. The real consequences are in Eastern Europe where Poland is kept independent and Russia doesn't get access to the Baltic Sea. At some point, Russia will go to war again with Sweden and her allies, but who wins really depends on the quality of Russian generals and whether the international situation favors Sweden or Russia.