If Sweden Won the Great Northern War

[MarshalBraginsky]

There's also an earlier Russian penetration into Manchuria and China if Baltic and western expansion doesn't work because of Sweden. Could Lithuania be split off from Poland and have a Swedish prince rule Lithuania though?

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

Not really no. Poland and Lithuania had been united under a Personal Union for a long while, dating back to 1397 I believe. I don't think Poland, even one under a Swedish puppet would take too kindly to losing the Grand Duchy of Lithuania to independence.

 

[bellerophon]

Russia's westernization would be hindered greatly
Peter's plan to shift Russia towards the west already angered the the church and the nobles and slandered the traditional way of life.

If they lose then It would be the last straw, they would plot against him and shift back to the east.

And the westernization, It will most likely come with Napoleon, as he would easily defeat their obsolete ways of war. And Sweden would be the empire that would stand against the french conqueror

 

[Will Kürlich Kerl]

Russia's westernization would be hindered greatly
Peter's plan to shift Russia towards the west already angered the the church and the nobles and slandered the traditional way of life.

If they lose then It would be the last straw, they would plot against him and shift back to the east.

And the westernization, It will most likely come with Napoleon, as he would easily defeat their obsolete ways of war. And Sweden would be the empire that would stand against the french conqueror

If this POD doesn't butterfly Napoleon in the first place.

 

[Namayan]

Actually Sweden winning is highly doable.

All it needs to happen is for Charles XII of Sweden not to become injured and personally lead the Swedish Army at the decisive Battle of Poltava.

Besides what was already posted, an anti Russian bloc - Autonomous Ukraine Cossack, a pro-Poland, Sweden might succeed in taking Norway. Thus unifying Sweden with Norway.

If he unifies Norway with Sweden into a Scandinavian empire, along with its current winnings vs Russia, Sweden could potentially be in the same level as France and Britain by the Charles death. This could butterfly a lot of things in all of the 18 century wars replacing Russia for Sweden in all of these wars.

 

[mattep74]

Sweden winning the Great northen war means another war with Russia and/or Poland within a generation

 

[Rudi Maxer]

Sweden winning the Great northen war means another war with Russia and/or Poland within a generation

Or war of Sweden and Poland against Russia.

I think the fate of Poland will be main change in case of Swedish victory. Victorious Sweden can place their man, Stanisław Leszczyński on polish throne. Later, I see three possible scenarios:

1. Leszczyński maintains golden liberty in Poland, and undertakes no reforms. Sweden loses next war against Russia, and Poland passes into Rusian sphere of influence just like OTL but later.

2. Leszczyński manages to reform Poland, making it independent from Sweden. Perhaps even Swedes support this, seeing Poland as ally against Russia in future. Alliance of Poland and Sweden is strong enough to stand against further Russian expansion west.

3. Seeing as they can't hold control over Poland alone, Sweden agrees for Poland's other neighbours to share the prize. Effect is partitions of Poland earlier than OTL.

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

Actually Sweden winning is highly doable.

All it needs to happen is for Charles XII of Sweden not to become injured and personally lead the Swedish Army at the decisive Battle of Poltava.

Besides what was already posted, an anti Russian bloc - Autonomous Ukraine Cossack, a pro-Poland, Sweden might succeed in taking Norway. Thus unifying Sweden with Norway.

If he unifies Norway with Sweden into a Scandinavian empire, along with its current winnings vs Russia, Sweden could potentially be in the same level as France and Britain by the Charles death. This could butterfly a lot of things in all of the 18 century wars replacing Russia for Sweden in all of these wars.

There is no absolute way in which Sweden can ever be a Great Power along the same level as Britain and France, and even if it could it would not last long.

But I would see Poland more as a sattelite or buffer state against Russia, because I feel Russia is the only legitimate threat to Swedish domination of the Baltic, which had been their long term goal since 1523.

 

[katchen]

I like the Ladoga-Svir-Onega River frontier to the White Sea for Sweden. It's a border that's short and defensible. The Swedes need defensible and after the Great Northern War will want defensible.
If the Swedes get Norway, they are in a position to build a very large navy for colonial expansion overseas. The Swedes will be keen to expand overseas now. Remember, during this war, Finland (1699) had a major famine. The Swedes need a better granary than the Baltic States but they know by now that they cannot take over and hold any more territory inhabited by other Europeans.The Swedes also need an opporunity to expand the number of people in the world who speak Swedish.
Norway, if the Swedes get it, has excellent harbors and plenty of wood, even for masts, for shipbuilding. Enough to where over time, Sweden's navy can exceed the size of the UK's.
Could the Swedes get the British on side (and protect themselves against any possible Danish resurgence in the future) by offering the Brits Sjaeland, including Helsingor (Elsinore +) and Copenhagen as that would guarantee freedom of the seas for the Baltic much the same as Gibraltar guarantees the British access to the Mediteranean? And/or possiby let the British ( the Act of Union with Scotland has just passed) have the Faroes and Iceland in return for something else? That being perhaps the western side of Hudson's Bay or entre' to the tail end of the War of Spanish Succession as a British ally, from which Sweden might be able to extracrt, say the Rio de la Plata region, Chile, and title to Patagonia?

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

I like the Ladoga-Svir-Onega River frontier to the White Sea for Sweden. It's a border that's short and defensible. The Swedes need defensible and after the Great Northern War will want defensible.
If the Swedes get Norway, they are in a position to build a very large navy for colonial expansion overseas. The Swedes will be keen to expand overseas now. Remember, during this war, Finland (1699) had a major famine. The Swedes need a better granary than the Baltic States but they know by now that they cannot take over and hold any more territory inhabited by other Europeans.The Swedes also need an opporunity to expand the number of people in the world who speak Swedish.
Norway, if the Swedes get it, has excellent harbors and plenty of wood, even for masts, for shipbuilding. Enough to where over time, Sweden's navy can exceed the size of the UK's.
Could the Swedes get the British on side (and protect themselves against any possible Danish resurgence in the future) by offering the Brits Sjaeland, including Helsingor (Elsinore +) and Copenhagen as that would guarantee freedom of the seas for the Baltic much the same as Gibraltar guarantees the British access to the Mediteranean? And/or possiby let the British ( the Act of Union with Scotland has just passed) have the Faroes and Iceland in return for something else? That being perhaps the western side of Hudson's Bay or entre' to the tail end of the War of Spanish Succession as a British ally, from which Sweden might be able to extracrt, say the Rio de la Plata region, Chile, and title to Patagonia?

It's a big what if, but it depends on if Sweden does gun for Norway. Like I said, Sweden is primarily going to focus on the Baltic, (though it did have Trondelag, and it might go to regain it if anything...) so if they decide to go for land in Norway, I don't think it would be much to warrant building a fleet, especially a fleet that theoretically can and will threaten Great Britain.

 

[Namayan]

There is no absolute way in which Sweden can ever be a Great Power along the same level as Britain and France, and even if it could it would not last long.

But I would see Poland more as a sattelite or buffer state against Russia, because I feel Russia is the only legitimate threat to Swedish domination of the Baltic, which had been their long term goal since 1523.

It is a possibility especially if Sweden unifies with Norway. Poland and Cossack Ukraine becomes pro and allied to Sweden. All this can happen during the timeframe of the Great Northern war since it almost happened in OTL absent of Charles XII's bad luck.

With unification with Norway and Denmark, they can build a far larger navy than the OTL Britain.

 

[katchen]

Sweden lusted after Norway from the time Sweden became independent in the 1500s. Why should that change? And between the Little Ice Age caused famines and general lack of arable land and opportunity in both Sweden and Norway, Scandinavia is dying on the vine while much smaller England prospers. (I read a book chapter on witch trials in Norway which pointed up the fact that in the 17th Century, Norway had a large population of poor people in Norway's cities--this in a country where people were supposed to be tied to the land as serfs). It was the division of Scandinavia between Sweden, dynamic and frustrated, hemmed in by enemies to where it had to be preoccupied with the Baltic, and Denmark and Norway, a kingdom with a great deal of potential, but extremely conservative and more concerned with keeping the peasantry in it's place than with growing, economically, that hobbled Scandinavia and prevented it from growing like England and the Netherlands did. Now, with Charles XII's victory, there is a way for Sweden to emerge from it's geographic cage--if it takes Norway so that at the least it no longer needs to worry about potential enemies on the Scandinavian Peninsula. It's like England annexing Scotland.
And the War of the Spanish Succession is the perfect opportunity for Sweden to break out, since now the Western European powers that always sided with Denmark and stopped Sweden are fighting amongst themselves. A perfect opportunity after 1707 for Sweden to create a fait accompli before the War that keeps Western Europe busy ends. This is how new and emergent powers emerge. This is how Great Britain is emerging. Why not Great Scania?

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

Well maybe if they do take Norway, what's going to stop Denmark from trying to reclaim it. And did Sweden really covet just Norway, or were they trying to create the Kalmar Union under Sweden rather than Denmark? These question would determine what would change not just in a GNW-peace, but also the dynamic of Sweden and Denmark in the future.