If Henry VIII doesn't split from Rome, how does Britain develop?

[Jord839]

So, there have been more than a few TL's and maps where Henry the Eighth gets that son he wants or the annulment and doesn't declare a Church of England. But I've never seen a detailed account of the differences this frankly huge POD causes. Often it seems like people assume an England very similar to OTL, just Catholic.

I want to see what you all have to say about that.

What I want to know is how England develops in that situation. Does protestantism still catch on in certain segments of the population anyway? If it does, how does the monarchy react? Without the money gained from taking church lands in England or the conflict the split created with the Catholic powers, how does the English military and such develop? Does it, and by extension the British state, still gain the prestigious political standing it did IOTL?

How does this affect Ireland? Scotland?

Have at it!

 

[Thande]

I tend to think it would be something like what happened in France in OTL. Protestantism was catching on anyway (and remember Henry VIII regarded his Anglican church as more 'independent Catholic' than Protestant - it's Edward VI who was the first declaredly Protestant) primarily among intellectuals. However the public, especially in the north and west, would mostly remain Catholic, especially since without the dissolution of the monasteries there would be Catholic infrastructure and symbolism there to keep them there. So England would end up with a sizeable Protestant minority with disproportionate political power and a Catholic majority. The question is whether they achieve a lasting settlement like the Edict of Nantes in France (and whether that stays or a Louis XIV figure gets rid of it and triggers a Protestant exodus) or whether religious warfare rips the country apart. Either way, the national image of England/Britain alone in the world and the continent as an alien and faraway place probably doesn't form, or at least not to the same extent.

 

[Desmond Hume]

This is a great topic, Jord! Henry never spliting with Rome and England staying Catholic is my personal favorite POD. I think England would probably develop incredibly differently; I doubt it would look anything like OTL. Here's my thoughts:

1. Protestantism would definitely catch on in some parts of England; it was already catching on IOTL. I think Protestantism would be most popular in the southern counties and in London, where it was strongest IOTL. If Henry never finds anti-papalism politically convenient, the monarchy's response will probably continue to be fierce, as IOTL. In the 1520's Henry was intensely hostile to Luther and other Protestants, and if he never splits with Rome I see no reason why that would change (indeed, even after the split with Rome he sometimes cracked down pretty hard when he thought the Reformation was getting too extreme, such as in the 1540's after the downfall of Cromwell). Henry (and Lord Chancellor Thomas More, who probably won't get to be a martyr ITTL) will keep on burning heretics and inveighing against Luther in printed polemics. There might be an English Protestant exile community on the continent, like the Marian exiles, but unlike the Marian exiles these Protestants will probably never return to England. On a related note, without important Marian exiles returning after being exposed to Calvinist ideas in Geneva, the brand of Protestantism prevalent in England will probably continue to be much more heavily Lutheran-influenced.

2. Henry staying Catholic might not necessarily save the monasteries, at least not all of them. Monastic dissolution was motivated by greed as much as religion, and Henry VIII is going to be a greedy SOB with delusions of grandeur no matter what religion he practices. Who knows, having a surviving son to pass his realms on to might make him even crazier about conquering France? As long as he doesn't have enough money (which he never did) and he feels the need to engage in foreign escapades (which he always did), at least the smaller English monasteries are exposed to reappropriation by the Crown.

However, the bigger monasteries would probably survive. I'm not sure how this affects economic development, but it would be very highly culturally significant. The present day world of this ATL would probably still have all kinds of medieval artwork and literature that was destroyed by the Protestants IOTL. This might radically alter their understanding of history: the idea of the Middle Ages as a Dark Age might never be tenable if more from that era survived.

3. I doubt this POD would affect Ireland all that much in the short term, honestly. Protestantism never really caught on there in the first century after the Reformation started; it only really arrived through the colonization of Ulster in the 17th century, which is probably butterflied away here. Which isn't to say peace is going to break out in Ireland: instead of Protestant vs. Catholic conflict, we might just see a continuation of the Old English Catholics vs. Gaelic Irish Catholics vs. New English Catholics/royal administrators conflict.

 

[Jord839]

I tend to think it would be something like what happened in France in OTL. Protestantism was catching on anyway (and remember Henry VIII regarded his Anglican church as more 'independent Catholic' than Protestant - it's Edward VI who was the first declaredly Protestant) primarily among intellectuals. However the public, especially in the north and west, would mostly remain Catholic, especially since without the dissolution of the monasteries there would be Catholic infrastructure and symbolism there to keep them there. So England would end up with a sizeable Protestant minority with disproportionate political power and a Catholic majority. The question is whether they achieve a lasting settlement like the Edict of Nantes in France (and whether that stays or a Louis XIV figure gets rid of it and triggers a Protestant exodus) or whether religious warfare rips the country apart. Either way, the national image of England/Britain alone in the world and the continent as an alien and faraway place probably doesn't form, or at least not to the same extent.

Interesting. I hadn't realized the original conversions were more favored on the elites and intelligentsia than the commoners. I may be a little pessimistic on this front, but I would not be surprised by at least some religious warfare. As Desmond Hume pointed out below, Henry VIII was something of a greedy bastard. If he can't touch all the church lands, well, a few rich heretics might be past time to be taught a lesson. And that could be very dangerous if said Protestants have enough supporters.

I also find it interesting how you singled out the North and West as areas that would probably remain staunchly Catholic. Was there something about those areas IOTL that lead to that idea?

This is a great topic, Jord! Henry never spliting with Rome and England staying Catholic is my personal favorite POD. I think England would probably develop incredibly differently; I doubt it would look anything like OTL. Here's my thoughts:

1. Protestantism would definitely catch on in some parts of England; it was already catching on IOTL. I think Protestantism would be most popular in the southern counties and in London, where it was strongest IOTL. If Henry never finds anti-papalism politically convenient, the monarchy's response will probably continue to be fierce, as IOTL. In the 1520's Henry was intensely hostile to Luther and other Protestants, and if he never splits with Rome I see no reason why that would change (indeed, even after the split with Rome he sometimes cracked down pretty hard when he thought the Reformation was getting too extreme, such as in the 1540's after the downfall of Cromwell). Henry (and Lord Chancellor Thomas More, who probably won't get to be a martyr ITTL) will keep on burning heretics and inveighing against Luther in printed polemics. There might be an English Protestant exile community on the continent, like the Marian exiles, but unlike the Marian exiles these Protestants will probably never return to England. On a related note, without important Marian exiles returning after being exposed to Calvinist ideas in Geneva, the brand of Protestantism prevalent in England will probably continue to be much more heavily Lutheran-influenced.

So if he doesn't split, Henry probably fits the bill as another kind of reactionary catholic monarch against the Reformation? Interesting. I also like that bit about the Marian exiles not returning and how that will change the theological development of British protestantism. Very nice detail I had no idea about.

Both you and Thande have pointed out the regional differences in how England accepted Protestantism. Would those differences in regions become more pronounced as the catholic monarch and powerful protestant minority clashes?

2. Henry staying Catholic might not necessarily save the monasteries, at least not all of them. Monastic dissolution was motivated by greed as much as religion, and Henry VIII is going to be a greedy SOB with delusions of grandeur no matter what religion he practices. Who knows, having a surviving son to pass his realms on to might make him even crazier about conquering France? As long as he doesn't have enough money (which he never did) and he feels the need to engage in foreign escapades (which he always did), at least the smaller English monasteries are exposed to reappropriation by the Crown.

True. Above I suggested he might go after some of the more powerful Protestants as well. Any thoughts on that?

However, the bigger monasteries would probably survive. I'm not sure how this affects economic development, but it would be very highly culturally significant. The present day world of this ATL would probably still have all kinds of medieval artwork and literature that was destroyed by the Protestants IOTL. This might radically alter their understanding of history: the idea of the Middle Ages as a Dark Age might never be tenable if more from that era survived.

Very interesting. I hadn't even thought of that kind of thing as an effect. Thanks!

3. I doubt this POD would affect Ireland all that much in the short term, honestly. Protestantism never really caught on there in the first century after the Reformation started; it only really arrived through the colonization of Ulster in the 17th century, which is probably butterflied away here. Which isn't to say peace is going to break out in Ireland: instead of Protestant vs. Catholic conflict, we might just see a continuation of the Old English Catholics vs. Gaelic Irish Catholics vs. New English Catholics/royal administrators conflict.

So Ireland continues its good old fashioned feuding, I see. Would Scotland remain Catholic in this kind of scenario as well? IIRC, the original reason for the big migrations into Ulster was a bad famine back home, so it's possible that a version of them will come anyway.

Would I be correct in saying that the conflict would not be as bitter and terrible as it was at times IOTL?

 

[Thande]

I also find it interesting how you singled out the North and West as areas that would probably remain staunchly Catholic. Was there something about those areas IOTL that lead to that idea?

Firstly the north and west tend to be the most rebellious by nature, being far away from the centre of power (see here and here) and secondly they, especially the north, were the most Catholic areas in OTL, producing the most Catholic martyrs (and, of course, there's the Pilgrimage of Grace).

 

[Roberto]

If there is a Louis XIV style figure who triggers mass legal persecution of the Protestant minority, maybe English colonial expeditions begin earlier, sometime in the mid-16th century on a far more comprehensive scale than OTL?

 

[Thande]

It strikes me that it would be very easy to set up an analogous history here if you wanted to, without it becoming too Turtledovish...say, if France wholeheartedly goes over to Protestantism with Henri IV while England remains Catholic but tolerates its valued Protestant minority, with initial religious wars but these ended by royal edict. Then at the end of the 17th century, a purist English king expels the English Protestants and they all end up in Protestant France, analogous to the Huguenots from OTL. But of course you could do all sorts of other things as well.

 

[Thande]

If there is a Louis XIV style figure who triggers mass legal persecution of the Protestant minority, maybe English colonial expeditions begin earlier, sometime in the mid-16th century on a far more comprehensive scale than OTL?

As I say in my post below yours, I think it more likely they would find refuge with a Protestant nation on the continent - assuming, of course, there are any...no Protestant England might mean the Dutch never break free from the Spaniards and whether Protestantism survives in Germany, given the course of the Thirty Years' War and so on, is a bit up in the air...I suppose Scandinavia is going to go Protestant any which way though.

 

[Tyr]

Ireland could be pretty interesting here actually.
The whole reason the kingdom was formed was the lordship of Ireland was based on papal ruling- the pope said Ireland was legally subject to the king of England and that was why it was.
With the break with Rome however Henry decided to go for something more solid and had himself made king of the place...
And then a catholic England could perhaps not have such a rivalry with Spain so no Spanish support for rebels in Ireland, a lesser Tudor reconquest of Ireland....
Development in Ireland is very much slowed down really (albeit for the good of the people living there due to less war!).

What would happen with the Spanish though...I dunno...England's sailors were on the rise protestantism or not. Religion is nought but a smoke screen when it comes to making money and building your power in the world (hence the Ottoman-French alliance and France's supporting of the prods in the 30 years war....) so something could still emerge....

But then anoter thought, no break with Rome we're assuming no divorce for Henry so Mary I is all he's got....

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Ireland could be pretty interesting here actually.
The whole reason the kingdom was formed was the lordship of Ireland was based on papal ruling- the pope said Ireland was legally subject to the king of England and that was why it was.
With the break with Rome however Henry decided to go for something more solid and had himself made king of the place...
And then a catholic England could perhaps not have such a rivalry with Spain so no Spanish support for rebels in Ireland, a lesser Tudor reconquest of Ireland....
Development in Ireland is very much slowed down really (albeit for the good of the people living there due to less war!).

What would happen with the Spanish though...I dunno...England's sailors were on the rise protestantism or not. Religion is nought but a smoke screen when it comes to making money and building your power in the world (hence the Ottoman-French alliance and France's supporting of the prods in the 30 years war....) so something could still emerge....

But then anoter thought, no break with Rome we're assuming no divorce for Henry so Mary I is all he's got....

Or Catherine bears him a son, that's another possible POD.

 

[elkarlo]

If there is a Louis XIV style figure who triggers mass legal persecution of the Protestant minority, maybe English colonial expeditions begin earlier, sometime in the mid-16th century on a far more comprehensive scale than OTL?

Not being at war with Spain may get thme colonies earlier. Though the Brits didn't do a good job at supplying them for the most part in the early stages.

 

[Jord839]

Not being at war with Spain may get thme colonies earlier. Though the Brits didn't do a good job at supplying them for the most part in the early stages.

Maybe. A fairly large part of the reasoning behind the buildup in England that allowed decent colonization was because of the hostility with the big powers on the continent. At least that's how I always understood it. Without that hostility would they really be able to keep up as many good colonies of their own?

Obviously a good portential for Protestants still making the jump across the pond, but I wonder how things would change with a Catholic home country.

 

[Thande]

There's the argument that without the excuse of being able to do licensed piracy on Spanish ships to get American treasure, England would be more interested in founding colonies of her own to look for legendary gold. In which case they'd probably be competing with the Spaniards in OTL Latin America rather than going to the OTL USA; the logic behind the latter colonies was to try and do a sea-to-shining-sea road (North America then being thought to be much narrower than it is) and then build a port on the Pacific coast to get a Columbian route to China and the Indies.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

All you need to do is have the Hapsburg emperor throw his aunt to the wolves.

He never helped her before and had little use for her afterwards, as proven by his regular diplomatic outreaches to Henry VIII, if only out of fear as to what France might do, so let him accept that Henry's succession fears are valid(they were) and that Catholic doctrine is also on Henry's side(it was).

Poof! Henry marries Anne Boleyn in a nice ceremony.

 

[Malta]

Would th practice of sendng religious exiles over seas be?
It seems possible, that these exiled Protestants may turn themselves up in the Americas (but Maryland as a Catholic Haven Colony would cease to be).

 

[Jord839]

Anybody else have any thoughts?

 

[Faeelin]

no Protestant England might mean the Dutch never break free from the Spaniards and whether Protestantism survives in Germany, given the course of the Thirty Years' War and so on, is a bit up in the air...I suppose Scandinavia is going to go Protestant any which way though.

The role of Catholic France in supporting th Protestants suggests that Catholic England may be an effective ally.

 

[MerryPrankster]

In How the Catholic Church Built Western Civilization, there's a section describing the study of slag heaps near a particular monastery where the slag had significantly less "wasted metal" than was typical of metallurgy at the time.

The author spun this scenario about how the monks might have been on the verge of discovering some advanced process and how this could have spread throughout the monastic information network across Europe and kicked off the Industrial Revolution centuries early, were it not for Henry's greed.

This article here contains another account, claiming that the monks were about to create a modern blast furnace:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/woods/woods43.html

I think the "early industrial revolution" might be a bit optimistic, but there might be actual technological advances in TTL, in the fields of metallurgy (this particular case) or other areas where the monks were active.

Also, the monastics were the only ones providing education for girls at this time in English history, an area that suffered a whole lot due to the Dissolution.

No split with Rome and girls in Britain would be more educated overall, which could have more effects later, including the possible appearance of one or more Great (Wo)men who affect history in some way or another.

 

[MerryPrankster]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1397905/Henry-stamped-out-Industrial-Revolution.html

That's another link on the subject, complete with an attempt to build that blast furnace.

 

[King Gorilla]

In How the Catholic Church Built Western Civilization, there's a section describing the study of slag heaps near a particular monastery where the slag had significantly less "wasted metal" than was typical of metallurgy at the time.

The author spun this scenario about how the monks might have been on the verge of discovering some advanced process and how this could have spread throughout the monastic information network across Europe and kicked off the Industrial Revolution centuries early, were it not for Henry's greed.

Meh, I'd take the flood of capital that their liquidation provided to English arts, trade, and shipbuilding any day of the week.