If Bush never took his second term, would the late 90s culture have lasted past 2004?

[Deleted member 128007]

People often said "The 90s ended in 2004", and you can kinda see why. Now some would say late 90s culture ended after 9/11 but others say it was still hanging in there 2002-2003. In 2004 broadband overtook dial-up, Friends ended, Cartoon Network got rid of their 90s lineup, Web 1.0 ended, etc.

If Bush never took his second term, would the late 90s stuff have lasted past 2004? Or would a new president instead of an incumbent have made the culture shift even faster?

 

[Brady Kj]

Sorry, but few of those have to do with Bush, the "Bush is stupid" schtick was around since his election, and people got over 9/11 at really varying times. I suspect I'm pretty typical in that thinking about 9/11 still gets to me.
And if Kerry or some other president was elected, that would give one more reason to think of 2004 as a decade cultural shift. I frankly never heard of this 2004 decade cultural shift before now, but it could be more popular if there's a change of president in that year. And there'd possibly be a sharp change to how the Iraq War is played out, or there might not be. Now, I imagine Team America wouldn't exist, so that's one change that would be averted.

 

[Thomas Jefferson]

Yeah, I think all of the cultural trends you describe, with the exception of the Bush memes and to some extend Green Day and emo, are independent of politics. The impact of the election depends on the Democratic candidate. A Howard Dean or John Edwards-type candidate could have been seen as the great liberal hope somewhat like Obama was OTL, but I don't see John Kerry being particularly exciting.

 

[Historyman 14]

First off, how does Bush lose? W was still very popular at that time. His decline only really started in 05 over Hurricane Katrina , the spike of the Insurgency in 04 and 05, and so on. Plus he's a wartime president. Generally, Americans don't dump the Commander in Chief during wartime.

I also doubt Kerry would get much done. With an GOP-held Senate and House, he be hard to get anything pass them, as well as dealing with the hot burning mess that is Iraq and Afghanistan. Katrina goes much better at the very least, but the Recession of 2008 happens 99% the way it did in OTL. (The underlying systemic issues to it from a political perspective were as much based on Democratic party policies as Republican.)

So most cultural trends would take place the same, or close to it, with Kerry being lame duck who gets murder in 2008 thanks to the War on Terror and the 08 Recession.

The 1990s ended on September 11, 2001.

 

[Thomas Jefferson]

W's approval ratings were actually under 50% from May-July of 2004, and he barely cracked 50% of the popular vote. If the Iraq War had gone south a little faster or the economy had recovered a little slower, he could have ended up losing to John Kerry.

 

[marathag]

Katrina goes much better at the very least,

What makes you think having somebody other than Dubya would magically make the N.O. and Louisiana officials respond better as the winds were still blowing?

 

[Tyler Ledbetter]

I think a more interesting POD is having Gore win 2000, and then somehow cancel 9/11, however you wanna do that. I feel like it could have felt like an extension of the Clinton era and the "feel good" era of the 1990's. The early 2000's recession could derail that, but if not too much goes wrong, we could have that until it all came crashing down at the housing crisis. I think having a "longer 90's" would have helped early millennials' optimism in the beginning, similar to their Gen X parents, but then it could have been even more of a shock in 2008 or whenever the great recession is.

 

[CountDVB]

Maybe Bush suffers a heart attack or some other accident that forces him to not run in 2004. Who would then become the GOP nominee and could they beat Kerry?

 

[Don Corleone]

First off, how does Bush lose? W was still very popular at that time. His decline only really started in 05 over Hurricane Katrina , the spike of the Insurgency in 04 and 05, and so on. Plus he's a wartime president. Generally, Americans don't dump the Commander in Chief during wartime.

I also doubt Kerry would get much done. With an GOP-held Senate and House, he be hard to get anything pass them, as well as dealing with the hot burning mess that is Iraq and Afghanistan. Katrina goes much better at the very least, but the Recession of 2008 happens 99% the way it did in OTL. (The underlying systemic issues to it from a political perspective were as much based on Democratic party policies as Republican.)

So most cultural trends would take place the same, or close to it, with Kerry being lame duck who gets murder in 2008 thanks to the War on Terror and the 08 Recession.

The 1990s ended on September 11, 2001.

Better shot to beat W would be a different nominee. Ohio wasn't called until very late and if it had gone the other way, Kerry would have won.

Maybe Edwards as the nominee - he outperforms Kerry in the Rust Belt.

 

[Thomas Jefferson]

I think a more interesting POD is having Gore win 2000, and then somehow cancel 9/11, however you wanna do that. I feel like it could have felt like an extension of the Clinton era and the "feel good" era of the 1990's. The early 2000's recession could derail that, but if not too much goes wrong, we could have that until it all came crashing down at the housing crisis. I think having a "longer 90's" would have helped early millennials' optimism in the beginning, similar to their Gen X parents, but then it could have been even more of a shock in 2008 or whenever the great recession is.

A successful operation to kill Osama bin Laden in the 1990s would have averted 9/11 as well as, depending on the exact timing, the embassy and USS Cole bombings. Averting the Cole in particular, which occured less than a month before the election, could have given Gore the boost he needed to win Florida, and a widely publicized successful operation to get bin Laden would have contributed to the overall optimism of the period. You would have also had a stronger economic recovery in 2002 absent the impact of 9/11 on consumer confidence, so the 'long 1990s' could have lasted well into the mid-2000s, ending with either Gore's defeate by a socially conservative Republican in 2004 or a more serious recession starting sometime between 2007-2010.

 

[Charles James Fox]

As above, 9/11 was a far more important turning point in American popular culture than the 2004 election - the trend in major American networks from more mature to PG programming being one example (e.g. away from the shock culture of the 90s of Jerry Springer, WWF, reporting of Lewinsky).

 

[Deleted member 128007]

As above, 9/11 was a far more important turning point in American popular culture than the 2004 election - the trend in major American networks from more mature to PG programming being one example (e.g. away from the shock culture of the 90s of Jerry Springer, WWF, reporting of Lewinsky).

Idk man, 2002-2003 movies, music, and TV shows mostly seemed very similar to 1998-2001 ones despite being post-9/11.

 

[Thomas Jefferson]

Idk man, 2002-2003 movies, music, and TV shows mostly seemed very similar to 1998-2001 ones despite being post-9/11.

For most of the movies and TV shows, that's because they were written pre-9/11. Alot of cultural products conceived during the pre-9/11 period, like the movie The Sum of All Fears ended up flopping because of changes in the public appetite, and Black Hawk Down was heavily edited to be more pro-military. The apparent lag in pop culture that you're talking about is partially due to the time it takes to get a cultural product produced.

 

[Gillan1220]

I'm thinking if Kerry wins in 2004, he takes a much less military stance in the occupation of Iraq. 2008 economic recession still happens.

 

[Amadeus]

I'm thinking if Kerry wins in 2004, he takes a much less military stance in the occupation of Iraq. 2008 economic recession still happens.

You might not see a troop surge in 2007. I don't see Kerry handling Iraq very well though, by 2005 the damage had already been done. I do think he'd handle Hurricane Katrina much better Bush and world opinion of the US would improve under his tenure.

One cultural impact of a Kerry victory in 2004 is that by 2008 both parties will have been discredited to many voters, since the GOP will have taken the blame for Iraq while the Democrats will have taken the blame for the bad economy. This might give an opening for a third party candidate to do relatively well in 2008, though regardless I think the presidency would be McCain's for the taking.