How powerful could a surviving modern day Ottoman Empire be?

[kham_coc]

If GB has the choice between the Ottomans and allowing Germany getting huge shipments of oil , it will pick going to war with the Ottomans. What are they going to lock the Red Sea with? They can't fight the RN and later the USN and win.

It's 1940 - The UK is alone (with it's empire) - The Ottomans, in this timeline a fairly powerful state with a powerful geographic position, decides that it reserves the right to sell their stuff to whomever they want. Would the UK really declare war? and if it did, would that in any shape or form be a good idea?
I'm not so sure.
And again, i wasn't the one who decided everything else happened as otl, it was a given in the question.

 

[Johnrankins]

It's 1940 - The UK is alone (with it's empire) - The Ottomans, in this timeline a fairly powerful state with a powerful geographic position, decides that it reserves the right to sell their stuff to whomever they want. Would the UK really declare war? and if it did, would that in any shape or form be a good idea?
I'm not so sure.
And again, i wasn't the one who decided everything else happened as otl, it was a given in the question.

The OE might be a decently powerful state but the British Empire is even stronger as is Nazi Germany. If the OE sells too much oil to Nazi Germany the British Empire might well see declaring war on the OE the lesser of two evils. It would try outbidding Nazi Germany for all the oil first but if it can't it might well mean war.

 

[kham_coc]

The OE might be a decently powerful state but the British Empire is even stronger as is Nazi Germany. If the OE sells too much oil to Nazi Germany the British Empire might well see declaring war on the OE the lesser of two evils. It would try outbidding Nazi Germany for all the oil first but if it can't it might well mean war.

Where is the OE capital, and where is the heer?
Something tells me the uk isnt in a stronger negotiating position.

 

[Simon Darkshade]

See preceding quote. Again, The ottomans would presumably join ww2, for about the same reasons they joined ww1.

I have examined that quote and read everything upthread from it. I can't for the life of me see how that can be read as a declaration of "Ottoman Empire survives and does not engage in WW1, but everything else proceeds as OTL." The only mention of those conditions come from you. It does seem that you might be inadvertently defining any contrary views out of the argument.

However, even in the situation you've described, and, as I've said, with massive economic benefits that put them on a level of 1950 GDP, the Ottoman Empire of the boundaries 1914 simply isn't in a position to fight a first rank power of 1940/WW2.

Technically those areas are part of the ottoman empire at this point. I don't think we ever decided what they owned in the area.

Technical does not equal actual control. Kuwait had been a British protectorate since 1899, Oman since 1862 and the Trucial States from a period beginning in 1820. As for Southern Persia, we have to go back to the 1590s. I would suggest that calling those areas 'part of the Ottoman Empire' is perhaps pushing things a little too far. Furthermore, it is before the effective point of departure established in the opening post of the thread of after the Second Balkan War.

Those are the boundaries and times we should be working with here, as they are clear and deliberate.

Looking at some of your other points, I would suggest some research into the logistical capacity of the Hejaz area, necessary aircraft support requirements and the record for anti-ship aircraft in the first half of the Second World War. It would appear that you are considerably overestimating not just the Ottoman capacity to close the Red Sea, but the capacity of anti-ship aircraft of the time altogether.

Warmaking potential in a Second World War context and period is not just a function of the size of the population and theoretical oil reserves. It includes infrastructure, heavy industry, population literacy, universities and other R&D, the raw sinews of industrial era warfare (coal, copper, iron, steel, electricity generation and oil), military experience and doctrine and numerous other factors.

For example, if you would like your nation to have a decent sized air force, it will be a bally big effort for an economy that is the size of Spain or the Netherlands. To shut down the Red Sea, a minimum requirement would be a force of 360 planes, or 150% of Fliegerkorps X. On top of this, you'd need at least 200 fighter or fighter equivalent aircraft to protect Thrace and Constantinople, 200 for the rest of Asia Minor, 300 for Syria and Palestine and 100 for Iraq, Before even counting other bombers, trainers or liasion aircraft, the putative Imperial Ottoman Air Force is pushing the size of the 1941 IJAAF!

A fair observer might think that a tad large to be sustained on $50 billion GDP and neither the Luftwaffe nor the Regia Aeronautica are so overflowing with pilots or aircraft that they can supply them on the level of the German contribution to the Middle Eastern Theatre in the First World War.

All that aside, I think the hardest point for anyone to sustain is a notion of the Ottoman Empire staying together and forging ahead while nothing changes outside. That is trying to tip the scales too far in favour of your chosen side and isn't really alternate history with a point of departure.

 

[M79]

Depends on what it controls and who controls it.

A sultan with reform and the population in mind is a must. Keeping the old plutocracy alive is a recipe for disaster.

If the Empire retains northern Iraq, then it has access to oil and has the means to begin building a mote modern state. Pushing back into Tripoli and Egypt/Sudan would be nice (but difficult) both for tourism money and more oil. Taking Bulgaria would give access to more industrial resources. Ultimately their smartest move is to play peacemaker or an early Yugoslavia - do business with everyone, stay as much out of the fighting as possible, balance the needs of the Eagle and Bear without being turned into just another pawn, and focus on building both the educational and technological infrastructure. Nobility is nice, talent is better, and maybe marrying a non-noble but talented wife into the House of Osman could help. World War II might permit unexpected growth in ways difficult to imagine - Ottoman liberation of Armenia somehow could be awkwars but interesting.

It just depends on what they control and who controls the Empire.

 

[Johnrankins]

Where is the OE capital, and where is the heer?
Something tells me the uk isnt in a stronger negotiating position.

Which is the stronger navy , the RN or the KM? The same things that stopped Turkey from selling loads to Germany OTL would stop them in TTL, Of course WW2 as we know it is almost certainly butterflied away anyway.

 

[Jürgen]

I‘m going to be clear here, having a easy access to money which doesn’t demand investment into the Ottoman population or infrastructure is unlikely to make the Ottoman Empire a well functioning state or even richer than Turkey in OTL. Oil money is far more likely to create a colonial relationship between the Turkish core and the Arabic areas with continued strife as the Arabs feel their oil is stolen from them. As the richest oil region in the Ottoman Empire would be the Shia Muslim southern Iraq, the Ottomans will likely try to play the Sunni Arabs against the Shia Arabs, and we will likely see Sunni Islam end up being the defining identity of the empire, creating continued religious strife and conflicts with Persia.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

The Ottomans will likely try to play the Sunni Arabs against the Shia Arabs, and we will likely see Sunni Islam end up being the defining identity of the empire, creating continued religious strife and conflicts with Persia.

I feel the same way that a way of uniting a disparate people would be through loyalty to the Crown & in a common religious background. While there might be some effort to create an 'Ottoman' identity, but I think that it would be secondary to emphasising a religious identity.

 

[Osman Aga]

With a POD after the Second Balkan war, in a TL where either WW1 doesn't happen or the Ottomans wisely stay out of it and keep their post 1914 borders and stabilize politically long enough to profit off the oil in their territory, how powerful could an Ottoman state become by modern day?

1914 borders?

Something between nowadays Turkey and nowadays Russia.

It would have a population between 150 and 200 million

A GDP between 1 billion and 2.5 billion

A lot of oil (22.5% of the world production: Saudi, Qatari, Kuwaiti, Iraqi oil...)

Not experiencing a catastrophic population loss in any form, be it Turkish, Kurdish, Armenian or Greek.

Industrialization starting by 1910s instead of 1930s (20 years advantage).

Compared to nowadays Turkey more involved with nations around the world or that don't have the influence of other European countries (nowadays Somalia for example).

 

[sirjackalot]

1914 borders?

Something between nowadays Turkey and nowadays Russia.

It would have a population between 150 and 200 million

A GDP between 1 billion and 2.5 billion

A lot of oil (22.5% of the world production: Saudi, Qatari, Kuwaiti, Iraqi oil...)

Not experiencing a catastrophic population loss in any form, be it Turkish, Kurdish, Armenian or Greek.

Industrialization starting by 1910s instead of 1930s (20 years advantage).

Compared to nowadays Turkey more involved with nations around the world or that don't have the influence of other European countries (nowadays Somalia for example).

Would an Ottoman state be able to conquer all of Arabia post 1914? IIRC all of Arabia at that time wasn’t part of the OE but also was not a unified state

 

[Osman Aga]

Would an Ottoman state be able to conquer all of Arabia post 1914? IIRC all of Arabia at that time wasn’t part of the OE but also was not a unified state

Non-British controlled Arabia yes. They aren't a real threat. Though they don't need to conquer them. Growing Ottoman Influence and the need for access to food, water and the seas could lead to increased Ottoman Takeover of the interior. It is pretty worthless but at least the Bedouin raids can be checked. The Bedouins there are in long term better off.

The Interior was controlled by the Sauds and Rashidis IIRC.

 

[Pelranius]

I suppose the more important question is, would the Ottomans care about any UK sanctions against the Nazis, or the Japanese? (provided they even come to power)
I sort of doubt they would care, and then the Oil flows freely.

The Nazis and Japanese can't outbid the Allies for Ottoman oil (if the Nazis pay for any meaningful amount of Ottoman oil, they'll probably have to forgo some other critical import from Spain or Sweden), not to mention that the US could Lend Lease/sell weapons to the Empire that the Nazis can't match (definitely in quantity, and likely quality as well).

 

[kham_coc]

The Nazis and Japanese can't outbid the Allies for Ottoman oil (if the Nazis pay for any meaningful amount of Ottoman oil, they'll probably have to forgo some other critical import from Spain or Sweden), not to mention that the US could Lend Lease/sell weapons to the Empire that the Nazis can't match (definitely in quantity, and likely quality as well).

If what is desired is protection from the Russians, then the Allies can't outbid the Germans. Besides, otl nazi Germany had plenty of gold left in 45.