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How powerful could a surviving modern day Ottoman Empire be?

With a POD after the Second Balkan war, in a TL where either WW1 doesn't happen or the Ottomans wisely stay out of it and keep their post 1914 borders and stabilize politically long enough to profit off the oil in their territory, how powerful could an Ottoman state become by modern day?
 
Much more powerful than Turkey today.

Being in possession of tons of oil, it would be as rich as Germany or even Norway is today as they certainly manage the oil much better than Arabs do
 
Much more powerful than Turkey today.

Being in possession of tons of oil, it would be as rich as Germany or even Norway is today as they certainly manage the oil much better than Arabs do
Any particular reason beyond anti-Arab prejudice for that statement?

OT: There's way too many question marks to really know for sure, but just based on gut feeling, a solid middle power a la Canada is plausible. Maybe France or the UK if they get very lucky and manage their oil very well (but that is the absolute best case scenario I can see), but in the modern day, human capital matters a lot more then natural resources and the Ottomans are starting way behind Europe, Japan, or North America, and resource curse is likely to make that worse by disincentivizing investments in education and industry in favor of oil.
 
Any particular reason beyond anti-Arab prejudice for that statement?

OT: There's way too many question marks to really know for sure, but just based on gut feeling, a solid middle power a la Canada is plausible. Maybe France or the UK if they get very lucky and manage their oil very well (but that is the absolute best case scenario I can see), but in the modern day, human capital matters a lot more then natural resources and the Ottomans are starting way behind Europe, Japan, or North America, and resource curse is likely to make that worse by disincentivizing investments in education and industry in favor of oil.
In case of Saudis and various other kingdoms - the money goes to buying golden toilets and loyalty of population with little investment. In case of Iraq or Syria it was thrown into armament and pointless wars. The Gulf Kingdoms are utterly wasteful of all natural wealth they have and had.
 

CalBear

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Much more powerful than Turkey today.

Being in possession of tons of oil, it would be as rich as Germany or even Norway is today as they certainly manage the oil much better than Arabs do
This seems to assume that the Ottoman Empire would be good stewards and would manage resources for the public good.

That is very much NOT a fact in evidence. Dictatorships are generally very poor at the management of wealth for the public good, as are Empires. A Single Party dictatorship that survives by oppression of dissent is, well, the House of Saud.
 
This seems to assume that the Ottoman Empire would be good stewards and would manage resources for the public good.

That is very much NOT a fact in evidence. Dictatorships are generally very poor at the management of wealth for the public good, as are Empires. A Single Party dictatorship that survives by oppression of dissent is, well, the House of Saud.
Turks do manage a few things better than Arabs - they are the only Muslim nation in the region alongside Iran that has a competent army and the only non oil rich country (except Malaysia) with a functional, healthy economy.

They likely would make a better use of the oil than the Gulf Arab states (which are banana republics that use foreigners for everything, even Saudi F-15s are serviced by technicians from the US)
 
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In case of Saudis and various other kingdoms - the money goes to buying golden toilets and loyalty of population with little investment. In case of Iraq or Syria it was thrown into armament and pointless wars. The Gulf Kingdoms are utterly wasteful of all natural wealth they have and had.
This seems... incredibly moralizing, and there's absolutely 0 evidence presented that the Ottomans would handle it "better." Most countries with a huge natural resource: economy ratio that are not already developed and stable tend to get hit with the resource curse hard*, and odds are the Ottomans would be neither by the time their oil deposits are found.
*Barring exceptionally good governance and policy, as in Botswana. But this is very much the exception.
 
This seems... incredibly moralizing, and there's absolutely 0 evidence presented that the Ottomans would handle it "better." Most countries with a huge natural resource: economy ratio that are not already developed and stable tend to get hit with the resource curse hard*, and odds are the Ottomans would be neither by the time their oil deposits are found.
*Barring exceptionally good governance and policy, as in Botswana. But this is very much the exception.
Would a ''rough'' model to base a surviving Ottoman nation be something like Pakistan?

By that very dangerous weak spot with how close their land in Anatolia is in the Balkans, try to get strategic depth and support proxies against say powers like Russia and Britain and Islam holding the nation together.
 

CalBear

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Turks do manage a few things better than Arabs - they are the only Muslim nation in the region alongside Iran that has a competent army and the only non oil rich country (except Malaysia) with a functional, healthy economy.

They likely would make a better use of the oil than the Gulf Arab states (which are banana republics that use foreigners for everything, even Saudi F-15s are serviced by technicians from the US)
That is Turkey, The Ottoman Empire leadership was a VERY different thing; the modern Turkish state is the direct result of the revolt that overthrew the Ottoman State.
 
This seems... incredibly moralizing, and there's absolutely 0 evidence presented that the Ottomans would handle it "better." Most countries with a huge natural resource: economy ratio that are not already developed and stable tend to get hit with the resource curse hard*, and odds are the Ottomans would be neither by the time their oil deposits are found.
*Barring exceptionally good governance and policy, as in Botswana. But this is very much the exception.
Are you arguing the existence of corruption in current Arab states and use of resources or are you making a different point?
 
If the ottoman state is a proxy for Turkey, (and its worth noting that its a fair argument it isnt), then otto would be one of the more powerful states of today.

Going against that is the fact that it would have to be an imperial state where lots of Arabs (and others obvi) would want to be independent, so wheter a stable functional state us what they would be or, Russia on steroids is another question.

On the other hand a ottoman state that gets cut down a bit but not to bad and focuses on the bits that matter with the least viable minorities, Northern Syria, Northern Iraq, parts of the caucuses should be able to form a stable Turkish state, where minorities should be containable in a democratic framework.
Although there is still the kurds.
 
Going against that is the fact that it would have to be an imperial state where lots of Arabs (and others obvi) would want to be independent, so wheter a stable functional state us what they would be or, Russia on steroids is another question.
Arab nationalism without foreign interference and without WWI was negligible.
So its not a guarantee that they would want independence.
 
Arab nationalism without foreign interference and without WWI was negligible.
So its not a guarantee that they would want independence.
I just dont think an ottoman imperial national identity could be forged. Independence would be fanned by the local oil bonanza if nothing else.
 
Are you arguing the existence of corruption in current Arab states and use of resources or are you making a different point?
I'm arguing that this statement "it would be as rich as Germany or even Norway is today as they certainly manage the oil much better than Arabs do" is unjustified since (a) there's no reason to believe that the Ottomans would "certainly" manage the oil "much" better then the Arabs do and (b) that even if they did, natural resources by themselves are not a route to the sort of wealth that Germany or Norway have.
 
Turks do manage a few things better than Arabs
I of course assume you are merely talking about institutions which circumstance has granted to this or that nationality and whatnot, but an ungenerous person could, reading this kind of language, make the assumption that you believe in some kind of bioessentialist nonsense.
 
In case of Saudis and various other kingdoms - the money goes to buying golden toilets and loyalty of population with little investment. In case of Iraq or Syria it was thrown into armament and pointless wars. The Gulf Kingdoms are utterly wasteful of all natural wealth they have and had.
The UAE has been diversifying and investing their oil wealth for decades now. Their human rights record is absolutely horrid, but it's just false to suggest that Dubai as a city and capital of tourism and finance is just a big golden toilet. I wouldn't even bother saying this if your statement wasn't as strong as "The Gulf Kingdoms are utterly wasteful of all natural wealth they have".
 
I'm arguing that this statement "it would be as rich as Germany or even Norway is today as they certainly manage the oil much better than Arabs do" is unjustified since (a) there's no reason to believe that the Ottomans would "certainly" manage the oil "much" better then the Arabs do and (b) that even if they did, natural resources by themselves are not a route to the sort of wealth that Germany or Norway have.

I wasn’t the one making that argument. You are confusing me with other poster. They wouldn’t be on level of Germany or Norway.

The UAE has been diversifying and investing their oil wealth for decades now. Their human rights record is absolutely horrid, but it's just false to suggest that Dubai as a city and capital of tourism and finance is just a big golden toilet. I wouldn't even bother saying this if your statement wasn't as strong as "The Gulf Kingdoms are utterly wasteful of all natural wealth they have".
Dubai is not going to be anywhere near capable of supplanting the oil revenue. It is questionable if it will even exist when oil collapses since the wealth that allows attractions and stores to function is based on it. And even if it were Dubai can’t carry entirety of Arabia. There needs to be more. Importing slave labor and using the money to buy off your people as they spend lives of leisure is not a recipe for success.
 
I just dont think an ottoman imperial national identity could be forged. Independence would be fanned by the local oil bonanza if nothing else.
The Turks, Arabs, and Kurds could easily be bounded to a national identity based on Islam and the Caliph
 
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