How long would it have taken the British Empire and the Soviets to defeat the Nazis alone?

[Deleted member 1487]

I'm on vacation and thus going off the top of my head here.

But the 6th Panzer Division received orders to deploy from France to the east before both Uranus and Torch (iirc either 4 or 5. November) (along with two other infantry divisions).
A few days later, the division was informed that they were slated to go into Army Group B's reserve - probably behind 8th Italian Army.
When Uranus started on 19.November, the the bulk of the division was in Poland, were it had to wait for some days because of partisan attacks on the railroad.

Source of this is the 6th Panzer divisions war diary.

An interesting ATL would be if the order to redeploy the division had been given about 2 weeks earlier.
In that case, 48th PzKp would likely have had an additional full strength panzer division available to counter the northern pincer of Uranus.

That is an interesting what if, especially as the maintenance of the equipment wouldn't be a issue unlike the 22nd Panzer division and their mouse problem.

Another POD there would be transferring 17th Panzer too when requested instead of waiting 10 days to get them to Stalingrad.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

A few days later, the division was informed that they were slated to go into Army Group B's reserve - probably behind 8th Italian Army.
...
In that case, 48th PzKp would likely have had an additional full strength panzer division available to counter the northern pincer of Uranus.

Behind the Italian 8th is a bit too far to the west to affect Operation Uranus, or at least the early stages of it. Move it's deployment a bit further east, though, and I think your very much on to something. While 6th Army's fate was pretty well sealed once Uranus had succeeded, maintaining a stronger reserve behind the two Romanian armies and the 6th does have the potential to make Uranus fail.

And if that happens, the Russians are gonna be in a tough spot to say the least.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Behind the Italian 8th is a bit too far to the west to affect Operation Uranus, or at least the early stages of it. Move it's deployment a bit further east, though, and I think your very much on to something. While 6th Army's fate was pretty well sealed once Uranus had succeeded, maintaining a stronger reserve behind the two Romanian armies and the 6th does have the potential to make Uranus fail.

And if that happens, the Russians are gonna be in a tough spot to say the least.

That is an interesting question, what would constitute failure in this case. The one wing of the advance would succeed even if 6th Panzer is available and I'd imagine the damage that happens to the Romanian 3rd army would still be quite severe regardless of the intervention of 1 panzer division, even if full strength, so would the situation still end up untenable for Army Group B without the pincers being entirely closed? 6th Army might still be trapped due to the supply situation and limited retreat avenues? It seems like even if the outer wings are defeated the inner ring would still be in place, which would still encircle 6th Army. I doubt Hitler would let them fight their way out though.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

That is an interesting question, what would constitute failure in this case. The one wing of the advance would succeed even if 6th Panzer is available and I'd imagine the damage that happens to the Romanian 3rd army would still be quite severe regardless of the intervention of 1 panzer division, even if full strength, so would the situation still end up untenable for Army Group B without the pincers being entirely closed? 6th Army might still be trapped due to the supply situation and limited retreat avenues? It seems like even if the outer wings are defeated the inner ring would still be in place, which would still encircle 6th Army. I doubt Hitler would let them fight their way out though.

Well, if one wing fails then there's always the possibility that the forces committed against it can then be turned around and possibly defeat the other. So the failure of one wing could lead to the failure of the other. If we presume that the losses of beating off one wing leaves these forces too weak to defeat the other wing, which isn't inconceivable, then one should consider still consider that unidirectional pincers aren't a great way to achieve encirclements unless anchored against a geographic position like the sea or a impassable desert or something, which isn't the case with Uranus. We would probably be looking more at a partially encircled 6th Army which... well, that would be an awkward situation for both sides...

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Well, if one wing fails then there's always the possibility that the forces committed against it can then be turned around and possibly defeat the other. So the failure of one wing could lead to the failure of the other. If we presume that the losses of beating off one wing leaves these forces too weak to defeat the other wing, which isn't inconceivable, then one should consider still consider that unidirectional pincers aren't a great way to achieve encirclements unless anchored against a geographic position like the sea or a impassable desert or something, which isn't the case with Uranus. We would probably be looking more at a partially encircled 6th Army which... well, that would be an awkward situation for both sides...

That's when things be interesting, the best fodder for what ifs and wargaming. Though I'd be surprised if even 1 full strength Panzer division with air support could defeat the entire wing of forces, but could stop the exploitation that really ripped into rear area forces. Might the Soviets then pull in forces earmarked for Saturn to complete the encirclement before 6th Army could move?

Edit:
Per this map though it looks like the right pincer cut the rail supply route to 6th army, which basically cripples them if they don't pull out and the presence of Soviet troops over the Don makes truck supply difficult too, even if they can drive over the frozen river. Though again looking at the number of tanks with South West Front even a full strength panzer division is going to have their hands full trying to blunt the north wing.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Might the Soviets then pull in forces earmarked for Saturn to complete the encirclement before 6th Army could move?

Logically, yes. The Germans would also be pushing in forces they historically used in Winter Storm and elsewhere to try to push the Soviets back and prevent them from achieving the encirclement, since we both agree Hitler won't retreat. Then there's the question of how a partial encirclement affects the supply situation. Looking at the map, the main road feeding the 6th Army would still be severed if the northern wing fails but the southern wing still achieves it's objective but that doesn't prevent the Germans from hastily setting up secondary roads on the northern part of the semi-pocket. Combined with air resupply, would it be enough to sustain 6th Army in it's position? Maybe.

It's a situation where either side could still take it. Fascinating.

 

[per70]

I seem to recall Glantz writing in his Stalingrad-series that South-West Front was specifically ordered to keep the 1st Guards Army (with its tank corps) out of Uranus to preserve its strength for Saturn.
Naturally, that might change if the Soviets learn of another panzer division in the target area. If they dont learn about it, it would be interesting to see how long it would take them to realise the need for it.

I also seem to remember, but haven't really looked at the details of it yet, that the forces of South-West Front were not supplied for a long fight. And that anything beyond half a week would lead to problems.
Which is one of the reasons as to why they failed to achieve one of its objectives - namely the securing of crossings south of the Chir river.

 

[MUC]

Swap from airburst to ground burst and add a delay fuse.

First generation atomic weapons were kind of delicate. I don't think you can do that.

 

[per70]

Furthermore, while it's a longer shot given the historical deployment plan, putting the division on the other side - along with the 29th Motorized (perhaps in preperation for a strike against Astrakhan) - would probably be the best option for stopping Uranus.
Stalingrad Fronts 62nd, 64th and 28th Armies didn't achieve much initially. While 57th Army did achieve a breakthrough, but was halted by the counterattack from 29th Mot.

What really caused trouble for the Axis was the 51st Army, which broke through in the morning with the 4th MC. And the axis had nothing to put in its way.
That would not be the case if the 6th PzDiv was in the area - and would keep open a railroad supply line from the south.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Furthermore, while it's a longer shot given the historical deployment plan, putting the division on the other side - along with the 29th Motorized (perhaps in preperation for a strike against Astrakhan) - would probably be the best option for stopping Uranus.
Stalingrad Fronts 62nd, 64th and 28th Armies didn't achieve much initially. While 57th Army did achieve a breakthrough, but was halted by the counterattack from 29th Mot.

What really caused trouble for the Axis was the 51st Army, which broke through in the morning with the 4th MC. And the axis had nothing to put in its way.
That would not be the case if the 6th PzDiv was in the area - and would keep open a railroad supply line from the south.

Sure, but if the northern pincer was able to achieve it's mission then the rail line would basically have been under fire and difficult to keep operational at best.

 

[per70]

I think we're talking about two different rail lines.
While the one running along the Chir river might come under fire - the one running through Kotelnikova would not.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I think we're talking about two different rail lines.
While the one running along the Chir river might come under fire - the one running through Kotelnikova would not.

https://www.stalingrad.net/german-hq/railroads-to-stalingrad/railroads.html
Looks like that other one wasn't supplying 6th Army, it was sustaining 4th Romanian and 4th Panzer armies. It was an even lower capacity line capable of 4-5 trains daily, so unable to handle the additional burden of supplying any other forces beyond what it already was. Plus it appears that with both lines open supply was still insufficient, to the point that the 6th Army had to send off it's horses because they couldn't supply them fodder in winter.

 

[sloreck]

Hitler did not always make stupid decisions, yes it was his default mode but... Assuming that the Russians don't pocket the 6th Army completely, and an escape corridor exists because various units diverted elsewhere do show up on the eastern front. Given the weaknesses of the Italian and Romanian armies just demonstrated and therefore the threat of being flanked (again) the generals might just prevail on him to withdraw the 6th and establish a winter defensive line and "we will retake and level Stalingrad in the spring". On occasion the generals could convince Hitler to do the smart thing, especially earlier on, by 1944/45 his stand and die orders etc were firm and he was really off the rails mentally as well as the "the generals are all plotting paranoia after the bomb attempt.

 

[per70]

Looks like that other one wasn't supplying 6th Army, it was sustaining 4th Romanian and 4th Panzer armies. It was an even lower capacity line capable of 4-5 trains daily, so unable to handle the additional burden of supplying any other forces beyond what it already was. Plus it appears that with both lines open supply was still insufficient, to the point that the 6th Army had to send off it's horses because they couldn't supply them fodder in winter.

I agree that this situation would leave 6th Army++ in a very dire situation - but a daily capacity of about 2000 tons is much better than what was delivered in OTL.
As well as the other advantages of only being partially cut-off.

So it would be interesting to see how it would effect the rest of the Soviet winter offensives in the south.

 

[Aussie]

Regarding a British Tube-alloys project; where would they locate their Trinity site? Australia? Would the Canadians allow a test on their soil, especially with the uncertainty of the bombs power/secondary effects?

Ric350

No reason the Maralinga, or Monte Bello tests, of post war 1950's, couldn't be brought forward.

Or for that matter, the "Blue Streak", and other projects, at Woomera, couldn't have started a decade earlier.