So let's say Mussolini is either neutral or Allied in WW II, whichever you prefer. The plausibility of that happening we'll leave aside. My question is how long Fascism lasts after Mussolini dies, presumably somewhere in the late 1950s or early 60s? Will he be succeeded by someone else like Balbo or his son-in-law Ciano, or does it die with him given that Fascism often was what Il Duce wanted it to be? Also, how would Fascism be viewed today in this ATL?
How long does Fascism last after Mussolini?
- Thread starter Onkel Willie
- Start date
Depends on a few things, like when Mussolini dies (lets assume simply that he pulls a Franco during the war and remains neutral), if he remains neutral from other European escapades (no invasion of Greece), and how the Italian economy is in the late 1940s and 1950s. Lets assume Mussolini dies in 1955-60, by that point Balbo, Ciano (both wouldn't be killed without war), Muti, Pavolini etc would be in their late 50s and 60s. Id predict some sort of power struggle (unless Mussolini anoints anyone specific as his successor) before someone emerging as the new Duce, whoever he was, its likely he would be in the late 50s/60s, and would be dead by 1975.
Its possible that fascism could remain beyond the 1970s, but id think it unlikely.
Its possible that fascism could remain beyond the 1970s, but id think it unlikely.
Who is Il Duce's most likely successor then? I'd go with Ciano since Balbo had been banished as early as the 1930s. After that I wonder whether fascism falls violently or dies quietly.
If Italy stays out of the war (or more likely get on board with the Wallies in 1943 or 1944) their economy will boom. In the after-war period Italy will have a good international standing and possibly even some occupation zone in Austria.
By the late 1940s-early 1950s the Lybian oil wells should be productive and this will result in additional revenues and an expansion of petro-chemical industry.
I've always been convinced that economic progress is the surest and least damaging way toward a liberal society. This will happen in Italy too: it will not be overnight, but I'm reasonably convinced that the Fascist regime will "degrade" and the internal divisions in the party will come to the front.
The death of Mussolini will also be the death of the Fascist regime as we know it.
By the late 1940s-early 1950s the Lybian oil wells should be productive and this will result in additional revenues and an expansion of petro-chemical industry.
I've always been convinced that economic progress is the surest and least damaging way toward a liberal society. This will happen in Italy too: it will not be overnight, but I'm reasonably convinced that the Fascist regime will "degrade" and the internal divisions in the party will come to the front.
The death of Mussolini will also be the death of the Fascist regime as we know it.
I don't know if I'd go that far on De Gaulle...
But postwar development is going to rapidly kill off some of the basis of fascism (that is to say, substantial agrarian backwardsness).
TFSmith121
Banned
Isn't the Spanish model the obvious one?
Isn't the Spanish model the obvious one?
Mussolini retires or dies and the monarch calls for elections, presumably with various exiles invited home, and perhaps international observers.
Best,
Isn't the Spanish model the obvious one?
Mussolini retires or dies and the monarch calls for elections, presumably with various exiles invited home, and perhaps international observers.
Best,
Not so sure about this. Franco was a military man above all, not somebody with a strong stake in fascism as an ideology. In fact, he diluted a lot of Falangism and ensured the military was always numero uno.
Il Duce was a lot more ideological (mostly for worse) and I could see a huge backlash by the party against the king calling for elections. Fascism viewed popular sovreignty as the antithesis of its existence - read "What is Fascism?" by Mussolini for reference.
It depends a lot, I'm very sure that it would last at least until the 1970s (there is indocrination in schools), and the only way to make the fascists give up would be by a military coup (like happened in Portugal) or if their leader simples give up. A surviving fascist italy could have changed a lot (if not the entire downfall of the dictatorships in europe), imagine a small block formed by Italy, Spain and Portugal. I even think that it would be possible to see them in power until the downfall of the soviet union (maybe their people would revolt wanting more liberties after seeing the soviet people being liberated from their dictatorships)
shiftygiant
Gone Fishin'
I'd put forward that Italian Fascism ends in a way similar to Estado Novo Portugal, with the leader replaced by a technocratic statesman following their death, however for it all to come crumbling down due to costly Colonial Conflicts, resulting in a coup that sees democracy restored. Having Umberto II in the mix would no doubt cock everything up though. Would the Italian people want a King who was compliment with the Fascist Regime, or would the King act as a figure for Italy's transfer into democracy? Because remember, the only reason Spain went like it did was because of how much power Carlos inherited from Franco. I doubt Mussolini would do the same for Umbeto.
Early 1970s, likely to be a gradual shift to this anyway. I agree with the speculation that it would be Ciano who takes over, and I suspect he would not have the same level of power that Mussolini had. Further, around the same time in the late 1940s (assuming Mussolini dies around that time) you also have a new energetic monarch who is likely to reassert himself quietly behind the scenes. This is the way I portrayed Italy in my TL.
The biggest change, IMO, is what happens with Libya. Given the relatively low population, the discovery of oil has a good chance of delivering a (thin) Italian majority by the 1970s.
The biggest change, IMO, is what happens with Libya. Given the relatively low population, the discovery of oil has a good chance of delivering a (thin) Italian majority by the 1970s.
The biggest change may be in Libya - not only because without the war, the whole "Fourth Shore" Program can continue unabated, but with the discovery of oil, there is a high likelihood it becomes part of the Italian terrafirma, rather than just a colony. That alone would have interesting long-term effects.
Alternate History
Banned
Who is to say that it will even end peacefully? The West would have propped up Francoism indefinitely, and would have been fine with a fascist Juan Carlos. They would not do anything to bring Mussolini down, and would want to keep him strong lest his communist opposition spearheads a revolution. Italy may have trouble with colonial insurrections on one hand; on the other hand, as long as it can keep Libya down, and has found the oil in there, it could probably survive as a petrostate. It's anyone's guess when it all comes crashing down.
There is a lot of difference between the situation on Spain (or germany or russia) and Italy.
Benny, not even at the moment of greatest influence, did have the same power of Franco, Hitler or Stalin; in the italian political life there were a lot of other important and influent actors like the King (and the army) and the big businessman.
To this add his habit of surround himself of yes-men and people who get all his legitimancy from him and without it are nothing; this will not change even in his last years, probably it will become worse...basically see the implosion of Forza Italia in Italy with Berlusconi (that in the previous years progressively sent away any possible successors like Fini and Alfano) effectively out of the picture for judicial and age reason.
Once Benny hit the bucket (or can't govern for other reason like health or...things that happen
) the number of people capable of taking control of state can be counted with a single hand...and even in that case who's in charge will have less power than Benny.It will be more or less peacefull due to the fact that the other political actors in the nation don't want any serious trouble and even the other nation (if Italy remain neutral in WWII, mean that she is still one of the big boys and nobody want that kind of trouble...naturaly an italian neutrality in the war change a lot of things and so the world political landscape will be hugely different).
Regarding colonial conflict, the only serious is in Ethiopia, the rest are widely pacified, fully on the road to have a big italian minority (Eritrea) or majority (Lybia), not counting that Abyssinian freedom fighters will not be liked in both Somalia and Eritrea (frankly between having to be part of Ethiopia or having to face it and being part of some commonwealth-like agreement with Italy they will probably choose the second).
Said that things in Abyssinia will become ugly, the Duke of Aosta unlike his predecessor tried OTL to reach the locals and build somekind of legitimancy and respect, still in 1940 the country was not fully pacified and things were much on flux
What happens to politics if fascism remains unblemished by the Holocaust, is it seen as a valid alternative to democracy and communism?