How far could Mysore go?

[Vinization]

The Kingdom of Mysore was a powerful, wealthy and expansionist state located in southern India. At its apogee, under the reigns of Hyder Ali and his more famous son Tipu Sultan, it stretched from the Eastern Ghats to Malabar and from the Krishna River to the borders of Travancore and the Carnatic. Unfortunately for them, the kingdom's expansionism antagonized practically all of its neighbors, the Marathas, Hyderabad, Travancore and most importantly Great Britain, and Mysore was eventually carved up among the victors after the Third and Fourth Anglo-Mysore Wars.

However, what if they were luckier in one of their many wars and managed to expel the British from the Carnatic and Madras? Could they have reunified the old Vijayanagara Empire (map below for reference) and if so, what would've been their next target? Could they modernize their army further and keep an edge over their northern neighbors?

Lastly, could they have expelled the Portuguese from Goa? There was a conspiracy by native Indians that, if successful, would've basically handed the place over to Tipu Sultan.

 

[M79]

Have the Tipu Sultan definitively defeat the British in the Third or Fourth Mysore War and the door to Mysore taking Travancore, if not much of the old Vijayanagara Empire, is open. Have Tipu produce a competent heir afterward who can inherit the kingdom and the possibilities are very interesting, especially if Tipu marries into the ruling family of a larger kingdom or the Imperial Mughal bloodline.

 

[Vinization]

Have the Tipu Sultan definitively defeat the British in the Third or Fourth Mysore War and the door to Mysore taking Travancore, if not much of the old Vijayanagara Empire, is open. Have Tipu produce a competent heir afterward who can inherit the kingdom and the possibilities are very interesting, especially if Tipu marries into the ruling family of a larger kingdom or the Imperial Mughal bloodline.

That's what I was thinking about, especially since Mysore came really close to conquering Travancore IOTL and could've done it without much difficulty according to this thread.

 

[M79]

That's what I was thinking about, especially since Mysore came really close to conquering Travancore IOTL and could've done it without much difficulty according to this thread.

Tipu needs to avoid getting killed at the siege of his capital, maybe have Wellington's near-miss become fatal and leave the Tipu triumphant somehow yet poised to go after first Travancore, then the independent players in extreme SE India, then Nizam. Mysore had the economy to sustain it, if Tipu has an equally competent heir and takes advantage of the British being distracted by Napoleon then Mysore can perhaps unite southern India (if not central or more) and solidify their gains before London can intervene. Mysore was also building a modern Navy at the time, and if Tamil/Chola sailors are available to man them such a Navy might give the RN a serious fight. This might impact the War of 1812 as well.

 

[Vinization]

Tipu needs to avoid getting killed at the siege of his capital, maybe have Wellington's near-miss become fatal and leave the Tipu triumphant somehow yet poised to go after first Travancore, then the independent players in extreme SE India, then Nizam. Mysore had the economy to sustain it, if Tipu has an equally competent heir and takes advantage of the British being distracted by Napoleon then Mysore can perhaps unite southern India (if not central or more) and solidify their gains before London can intervene. Mysore was also building a modern Navy at the time, and if Tamil/Chola sailors are available to man them such a Navy might give the RN a serious fight. This might impact the War of 1812 as well.

I think that by 1799 it was already too late to salvage the situation. Even if the siege of Seringapatam was defeated Mysore had already lost half of its territory thanks to the previous war. How about having Hyder Ali capture Madras with French help in the second war? Had Suffren won a decisive victory in the sea, it might've happened.

Also, calling in @LostInNewDelhi, @Shahrasayr and @Madhav Deval to see if they can contribute to this discussion.

 

[M79]

I think that by 1799 it was already too late to salvage the situation. Even if the siege of Seringapatam was defeated Mysore had already lost half of its territory thanks to the previous war. How about having Hyder Ali capture Madras with French help in the second war? Had Suffren won a decisive victory in the sea, it might've happened.

Taking Madras and holding it might be enough to break the British East India Company under the wrong circumstances, especially because Hyder Ali is likely to keep it if he can or truly humiliate a British Empire that had also just lost the 13 colonies. It may also be enough to get the Nizam to break with the British in favor of Mysore - have this result in Tipu marrying with a daughter of the ruling family and this could lead to serious butterflies.

I disagree that 1799 was too late to salvage the situation, the British certainly had armies in the field and it would be tough to manage but not impossible. Killing Wellington will also have repercussions later, especially if incompetent social generals take his place at the head of British efforts in Spain during the Napoleonic Wars. Their post-war map might look like this (presuming Mysore builds on their victories with annexation of Travancore, taking territory to connect Madras directly, and retaking or keeping land otherwise annexed by Nizam) circa 1800...

 

[raharris1973]

I don't know. Had they remained truly independent, even in their OTL 1784 peak borders, or somewhat less, they would have been an important factor in the Indian Ocean for the whole next century.

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

I disagree that 1799 was too late to salvage the situation

Things could potentially be salvaged, sure but it won't be seeing how far could they possibly go.

I don't think they could permanently take Travancore or maintain authority in Kerala, even Vijayanagara had massive trouble maintaining authority over the area, but the rest of South India is definitely doable to keep stable authority over.

Ideally they also need recognition from Delhi to delegitimise both campaigns from Hyderabad and remnants of the Nawab's of the Carnatic from trying to take territory. It's also not unheard of in Indian history for a southern power to campaign in Bengal and it would sure help out legitimacy in the south if Tipu can match the Cholas and become a Gangaikondasultan, so to speak. The British aren't gonna accept losing Madras any time soon, so it will be a source of future conflict until they've been convinced its unfeasible.

If a mysorean navy can become established between the 70s and the 90s could this possibly have an effect on Napoleon's Egyptian campaign? It might become more viable to maintain authority in Egypt if reinforcements can come in from the red sea route and there are Muslim regiments and their commanders in Napoleon's invading force.

 

[Osman Aga]

Have the Tipu Sultan definitively defeat the British in the Third or Fourth Mysore War and the door to Mysore taking Travancore, if not much of the old Vijayanagara Empire, is open. Have Tipu produce a competent heir afterward who can inherit the kingdom and the possibilities are very interesting, especially if Tipu marries into the ruling family of a larger kingdom or the Imperial Mughal bloodline.

Fourth war was pretty much formality. Tipu has to win the Third War. If he does that, OTL war is altered but definitely happening.

 

[Osman Aga]

The Kingdom of Mysore was a powerful, wealthy and expansionist state located in southern India. At its apogee, under the reigns of Hyder Ali and his more famous son Tipu Sultan, it stretched from the Eastern Ghats to Malabar and from the Krishna River to the borders of Travancore and the Carnatic. Unfortunately for them, the kingdom's expansionism antagonized practically all of its neighbors, the Marathas, Hyderabad, Travancore and most importantly Great Britain, and Mysore was eventually carved up among the victors after the Third and Fourth Anglo-Mysore Wars.

However, what if they were luckier in one of their many wars and managed to expel the British from the Carnatic and Madras? Could they have reunified the old Vijayanagara Empire (map below for reference) and if so, what would've been their next target? Could they modernize their army further and keep an edge over their northern neighbors?

Lastly, could they have expelled the Portuguese from Goa? There was a conspiracy by native Indians that, if successful, would've basically handed the place over to Tipu Sultan.

A great help would be Ahmad Shah Abdali living longer, keeping the Afghans united or Persia reuintes faster in and at latest in 1790. As long as the Marathas have rivals in North India. A resurging Mughal Power would also do. If the Marathas are busy in North India, the Mysoris have less heath on them from them and can focus on breaking the British Power in Southern India.

Pretty much anything South of the Krishna River can be Mysori by the 1810s. If they feel ambitious they can try to cross the Sea and land in Ceylon and taking it from the Dutch. Though I don't know how the British would react on that to be honest.

 

[M79]

Fourth war was pretty much formality. Tipu has to win the Third War. If he does that, OTL war is altered but definitely happening.

If Tipu can win the Third war and start from a stronger position the Fourth War does become more interesting...

 

[xsampa]

Could Mysore get colonies?

 

[Vinization]

A great help would be Ahmad Shah Abdali living longer, keeping the Afghans united or Persia reuintes faster in and at latest in 1790. As long as the Marathas have rivals in North India. A resurging Mughal Power would also do. If the Marathas are busy in North India, the Mysoris have less heath on them from them and can focus on breaking the British Power in Southern India.

Pretty much anything South of the Krishna River can be Mysori by the 1810s. If they feel ambitious they can try to cross the Sea and land in Ceylon and taking it from the Dutch. Though I don't know how the British would react on that to be honest.

Do you think a modernized Ottoman Empire would be willing to help Mysore once the French Revolution basically destroys France's navy and, with it, their capability to interfere in Indian affairs? The idea of helping a fellow Muslim state with weapons and money could be quite appealing.

Ideally they also need recognition from Delhi to delegitimise both campaigns from Hyderabad and remnants of the Nawab's of the Carnatic from trying to take territory. It's also not unheard of in Indian history for a southern power to campaign in Bengal and it would sure help out legitimacy in the south if Tipu can match the Cholas and become a Gangaikondasultan, so to speak. The British aren't gonna accept losing Madras any time soon, so it will be a source of future conflict until they've been convinced its unfeasible.

Do you think its possible for an extremely successful Mysore to basically control whatever's left of the Mughal Empire through a puppet emperor?

 

[Osman Aga]

Do you think a modernized Ottoman Empire would be willing to help Mysore once the French Revolution basically destroys France's navy and, with it, their capability to interfere in Indian affairs? The idea of helping a fellow Muslim state with weapons and money could be quite appealing.


Do you think its possible for an extremely successful Mysore to basically control whatever's left of the Mughal Empire through a puppet emperor?

The Ottoman Navy was basically non existent in the Arabian Sea. My TL TGR 2.0 is basically about a modernizing Ottoman Empire in the 1750s and kinda shows about the relationship between Muslim Indian Rulers and the Ottomans.

OTL Ottoman aid in the 1790s is impossible. The Ottomans are just starting to modernize the Army. While sending an army to India is not really the biggest issue, to secure naval supremacy in the Arabian Sea is, which again is without a proper Navy there. The Navy sailing around Africa is unrealistic and too dangerous. Maybe if the Ottomans avoided the war in 1768 yet kept reforming the Army. A navy operating in Basra/Kuwait/Bahrain is necessary and strong ties is a must. In OTL Mysore asked aid but Selim III was unable to help in both wars due to a war with Russia first and France second. He also did not have the means to do so but it isn't too unrealistic.

 

[Vinization]

A navy operating in Basra/Kuwait/Bahrain

That's basically what I was thinking of. And not really a strong military presence (Mysore has that covered) but rather a reliable trading partner if things get ugly.

 

[Osman Aga]

That's basically what I was thinking of. And not really a strong military presence (Mysore has that covered) but rather a reliable trading partner if things get ugly.

Military might work out in terms of reinforcements. The Marathas were keeping the pressure as well.

 

[M79]

Supposing the Tipu Sultan won the Third war, would a British loss in the follow-up war be enough to break up the East India Company?

 

[Vinization]

Supposing the Tipu Sultan won the Third war, would a British loss in the follow-up war be enough to break up the East India Company?

Probably not since they'd still have Bombay and (especially) Bengal.

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

Do you think its possible for an extremely successful Mysore to basically control whatever's left of the Mughal Empire through a puppet emperor?

Delhi is too far to permanently puppet, but what they could definitely do, especially if they can get Hyderabad to agree with them is stabilise the north a bit, and get a northern hegemon who's solidified control over the gangetic plain apart from maybe Bengal- that would possibly even be the Nawab's of Awadh instead of the Mughals because the Nawab's are an equal, as they're all theoretically mughal officials. Empowering the imperial dynasty itself could come back to bite you later if they decide now they've got control over the north again, they want to get their provincial governors back in the fold.

A Hyder Ali POD could also have ripples in Oman and Persia- Hyder Ali set up trading posts in Oman and almost Bandar Abbas, so instead of trying to fight through the mess of the north, Mysore might think it's a better idea to vassalise Oman and thus their east African territory. Possibly they could prevent the rise of the Qajars in Persia as well if the Zand alliance is maintained.

 

[Osman Aga]

Supposing the Tipu Sultan won the Third war, would a British loss in the follow-up war be enough to break up the East India Company?

Break up? No. If the EIC loses Bengal as well for some reason as well as trading there, the company may risk bankruptcy within one, two decades. Now I don't know how much of the revenue of the EIC came from India but I can imagine the loss of those revenues being good enough to harm the EIC permanently.