How do I drag on the Second World War?

[von hitchofen]

The long term goal was the invasion of the Soviet Union, but the timing of it in 1941 was by no means set in stone, the decision to attack in 1941 was considered as a means of bringing England to the peace table. From Halder’s diary:

it appears to be from the quotes you've selected

by late 1940 Hitler's health problems were preying on his mind, and he wanted to achieve as many of his insanely desired objectives as soon as possible

If most or all of the B.E.F. is lost but Britain remains in the war, the United States may opt to focus on the defence of the Western Hemisphere and not provide aid to Britain on the rationale that any aid sent to Britain was a waste.

were that to be the case then the contents of the opening post will never occur - a weakened Britain would never be able to manufacture Vampires/Meteors/Spitfire XIVs, except as prototypes and probably not even then

there is a reason why such aircraft could be made - excess productive capacity in the indigenous UK aircraft industry, made possible by the supply of Lend-Lease aircraft

there is no way of turning WW2 into a flight simulator, just for the amusement of creating a TL

well, I suppose there is, but it would involve fictionalising the war, or ASB

 

[Cook]

it appears to be from the quotes you've selected

I can provide quotes from Count Ciano and Goebbels as well if you would prefer; the accounts of those around him, particularly dated diaries in detail, form the basis of how we know what he was thinking and when he formed his ideas, as opposed to wild supposition and guesswork.

by late 1940 Hitler's health problems were preying on his mind, and he wanted to achieve as many of his insanely desired objectives as soon as possible

Feel free to present some basis for your theory.

 

[jmc247]

The attack on France doesn't happen until September after FDR had decided not to run. Its more successful then OTL and the BEF is lost. The new President of the U.S. doesn't squeeze Japan and doesn't go for Lend Lease. He also reduces the budget for the Manhatten Project.

Yugoslavia doesn't flip and joins the Axis camp. Spain joins the Axis camp seeing how weak and alone the UK is. The British Empire has to strip its forces down in the rest of the Empire to protect England causing revolts like the one in Iraq to go on all over the place.

Hitler is able to wage a one front war in 1941 against the Soviet Union that takes Leningrad that year freeing up huge numbers of Axis forces from the North of the country. The battle in the USSR becomes a bitter and long slogging match.

In the meanwhile in 1942 the U.S. support for getting involved is growing and the U.S. President decides Imperial Japan has gone to far and starts to squeeze them. In December of that year Japan attacks Pearl Harbor. The President then agrees to directly aid the UK and within 5 months after a number of U.S. ships are sunk the U.S. declares war on Germany.

The battle in the Soviet Union is going quite badly for the Soviets, but Hitler refuses to come to the table and the war drags on. The U.S. in mid 1943 provides lend lease to the Soviets. By early 1944 the U.S lands in the Middle East and North Africa to help the British stabilize and start to retain control of their Empire. And, one can see how things go from there with nukes not being on the table until late 1946.

 

[Cook]

were that to be the case then the contents of the opening post will never occur - a weakened Britain would never be able to manufacture Vampires/Meteors/Spitfire XIVs, except as prototypes and probably not even then...there is a reason why such aircraft could be made - excess productive capacity in the indigenous UK aircraft industry, made possible by the supply of Lend-Lease aircraft

British aircraft production exceeded Germany’s even during the Battle of Britain, well before Lend-Lease and was continually upgrading existing models and bringing new aircraft types into production. A British war effort following the loss of the B.E.F. would still put a high priority on aircraft production because that would be the principal means of defending the British Isles.

 

[von hitchofen]

Feel free to present some basis for your theory.

I'm aware that Hitler did not plan to start a European continental war until 1943 - but once he had, everything had to be achieved within in certain timeframe with the resources available, and very nearly was

which is why the LW that attacked the USSR was [roughly] the same size as the LW which attacked Belgium, Netherlands, France despite a much larger combat area

I can't find any evidence that Hitler might have delayed Barbarossa after the Fall of France

maybe you can...admittedly I'm not looking very hard, because I really don't care...

the war dragged on unnecessarily long enough as it was , largely due Allied unwillingness to commit ground troops to attack Festung Europe unless they had a massive numerical and logistical advantage, and near total air superiority

 

[von hitchofen]

British aircraft production exceeded Germany’s even during the Battle of Britain, well before Lend-Lease and was continually upgrading existing models and bringing new aircraft types into production. A British war effort following the loss of the B.E.F. would still put a high priority on aircraft production because that would be the principal means of defending the British Isles.

Yes, more of the aeroplanes that actually worked [Spitfires, Lancasters, Mosquitoes], rather than resource-intensive jet aircraft that took ages to perfect, and involved numerous expensive false starts

even the Hawker Typhoon would have been scrapped under such circumstances ending an important development line

without L-L Britain would not have that luxury

 

[HMS Warspite]

Possible delay's for the WW2 in Europe can also be political, meaning the allied coalition of the OTL, which already was seeing internal problems, would be escalating in a sort of war in a war, between the Western Allies on one side and the Communist USSR on the other, in which the West did not support the East as in the OTL, but let Stalin fight on his own against the germans in the East.

Besides the miss of supply out of the West, the Russians also had to miss Western intelligence, which in the OTL proved vital in some cases, such as Kursk. The British already had broken German Enigma Codes and later supplied this to their primary Allies (USA), but not the USSR, even in the OTL. Technically the USSR could still win the war in about the same time as in the OTL, but more likely would have been stalled, due to lack of Intelligence about the German millitary operations. Some more misses were likely, possibly delaying the Soviet Advance by a year, but not much more.

A second option would be the less fortunate invassion and its succeeding march to the Low countries and Berlin by the Western Allies. In the OTL, the Allies had a succesful campaign, helped a bit by the fact that the Germans focussed onm the East most of the time, leaving the Western parts of occupied Europe more or less to lesser forces. Misjudgement on the German side was a focus in the West on Norway only, rather than the French Atlantic coast. This could have been different, with just a few more German units in Fraqnce and a few less in Norway, possibly turning the Allied advance in a slow crawl, with much more opposition than in the OTL, as the Western Forces already occasionally were at their limmits in this march, being hampered by supply problems due to too long lines of communication.

 

[jmc247]

Had Germany and Italy worked together better a joint German/Italian military campaign in North Africa could have started not too long after the fall of France in exchange for Italy agreeing to put off attacking Greece until the British are out of the war. That would have certainly had long term effects, especially if Il Duce had actually planned for war against Egypt by laying down RR and upgrading his ports in Libya beforehand.

 

[Ivir Baggins]

Didn't the Soviets get a good deal of their information from their own spies in Germany, UK & USSR?

 

[Soundgarden]

Somebody actually did a post on what would happen if Hitler was less anti-semitic. Instead of genocide, he would get them Aryanized. The exception would be doctors, scientists, and other professionals. Him and the Nazis can capitalize on Jewish Intellegence. In other words, "if you can help us win the war, we'll tolerate you."

With that being said, more aircraft can be built, more soldiers would be treated for their wounds, and they would get closer to developing(or finish) their nuclear bomb.

This would still provoke the United States to build their atom bombs, and would use it either on just Germany, or Germany and Japan.

Considering how much stronger Germany would be in this alternate timelime, the war can extend another 2 or 3 years.

A question I always had was how would President Truman handle the majority(or more of) World War 2. When President Roosevelt died, the Germans were several weeks away from surrending, so he basically laid out the framework for Truman. What if he still died when he did? How would Truman handle a much stronger Third Reich?

I can still see America winning, but not sure how Truman would be able to compete with Nazi Germany (still) in full-swing. Any ideas?

 

[von hitchofen]

The exception would be doctors, scientists, and other professionals. Him and the Nazis can capitalize on Jewish Intellegence. In other words, "if you can help us win the war, we'll tolerate you."

unfortunately the Nazis disbelieved the theoretical science behind nuclear fission, which why their nuclear bomb could never work, even if they had the money and resources to produce one - they didn't

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_Physics#Effect_on_the_German_nuclear_program

choose a regime other the than Nazis - and this would be plausible

I can still see America winning, but not sure how Truman would be able to compete with Nazi Germany (still) in full-swing. Any ideas?

As long as he can force himself to be conciliatory to the British and hostile to the Soviets, Truman can easily win the war and the peace

 

[Genghis Kawaii]

Yes, more of the aeroplanes that actually worked [Spitfires, Lancasters, Mosquitoes], rather than resource-intensive jet aircraft that took ages to perfect, and involved numerous expensive false starts

even the Hawker Typhoon would have been scrapped under such circumstances ending an important development line

without L-L Britain would not have that luxury

All Britain needs to do is shoot down a couple German jets over England and reverse engineer the wrecks. In a desperate enough fight, I could see them doing just that so as to have something that can challenge Germany's jets on equal ground. Without doing so, the British disadvantage in the air around 1948 would be pretty hefty.

 

[Genghis Kawaii]

Hitler will NOT delay the invasion of USSR - as far as he's concerned it is the whole point of the war - that and the destruction of European Jewry

preparation for invasion began in September 1940

you want Barbarossa delayed, or less resources devoted to the "Jewish problem" - choose another Nazi leader - not Hitler, not Himmler, not Heydrich

everything that he has done militarily up to June 1941 is to prepare for the attack on Russia to smash Bolshevism as a political force

the longer he waits the stronger the USSR becomes

many people, who don't know a great deal about Nazi ideological thought, think of the Ostfront as just another campaign in WWII

Hitler, however, did not. Defeating Bolshevism was his obssession, to the point of mania, the only thing that could delay it is France fighting much harder than it did - which might delay the planning by two months

Everything else was a sideshow to the Drang nach Osten

The length of time the second world war lasted, was pretty much as long as it could last.

Even assuming D-Day "failing" which is massively unlikely, the Reich would be overrun by the Soviets by Autumn 1946 at the earliest.

I don't want Barbarossa delayed. I like the idea of Germany having more initial success and, once things start to get bad, performing tactical retreats instead of ridiculously holding at all cost. That alone could drag out the war immensely.

 

[Flubber]

All Britain needs to do is shoot down a couple German jets over England and reverse engineer the wrecks.

Sure, that's all they would need to do...

 

[Genghis Kawaii]

Two divergences:


1936 - General Sanjurjo sensibly flies from Lisbon to Salamanca in the De Havilland Rapide rather than romantically taking Ansaldo's two-seater - is not killed in a crash.

1940 - Allied codebreakers re-break Enigma a month earlier.

Narrative:

Enigma decrypts alert the Allies to the German invasion of Norway. They defeat it completely.

In the gloating over the Norway victory, the break into Enigma leaks to the Germans.

Between Norway and the huge security breach, the Germans postpone the attack on France by three months.

July - with the war in Europe stalemated, FDR decides that the crisis does not require him to continue as President. The Democrats nominate Sen. Burton Wheeler of Idaho, a fiery New Dealer and also fanatic Isolationist.

August - Germany attacks in the West, but the Allies have had three additonal months to prepare. The Germans gain only a limited success by the end of 1940. France is just short of collapse but Germany isn't much better off.

In November - Wheeler narrowly wins election over novice candidate Willkie. Wheeler declares that the U.S. will not aid the Allies, nor even relax the Neutrality Act restrictions on selling arms. He will veto any such moves.

1941

Hitler persuades Mussolini and Sanjurjo to bring Italy and Spain into the war on the German side.

April - Renewed German attacks fail to break Allied forces, but then attacks from Spain and Italy drive into the Allied rear. Allied forces in France collapse. The French government flees to North Africa in June.

June - Axis forces attack French North Africa and Egypt. Allied naval superiority compensates for Axis air and land strength. However U-boats and surface raiders hurt Allied shipping. French colonial and British Empire/Commonwealth troops put up lots of resistance.

August - President Wheeler has said the U.S. will do nothing about Japan and Euro colonies in Asia. Japan now seizes Indochina, Malaya, the Indies, and the South Pacific. (Air raids by unopposed Japanese fleets force Australia and New Zealand to declare neutrality.) The Indian Congress also declares neutrality. British forces hold Ceylon, parts of southern India, what is now Pakistan, and Punjab.

September - French North Africa falls to the Axis. Fighting continues in Libya and northwest Africa.

October - Soviet forces attack west into Germany.

December - German reserves halt Soviet attacks just outside Berlin.

1942

April - Skilful German counterattacks shatter the Soviet forward echelons (still under mediocre post-purge leaders). Assisted by Romania, the Germans drive deep into Soviet territory, capturing Minsk, Riga, and Kiev, with over 1M prisoners.

The stage is now set. The Axis, including Spain, versus the USSR, Britain (minus much of the Empire), and and the French colonial empire. ISTM this war could go on a long time - easily until 1948.

The USSR is not getting any Lend-Lease aid, which OTL represented about 1/3 of its war materiel. There were many categories in which the Soviets were entirely dependent or nearly so on Lend-Lease: locomotives and freight cars, telephone cable, trucks, radios.

Britain is horribly crippled and must fight Japan alone; she can't do much except contain the Axis in Africa and try to bomb Germany.


IMO no. Multiple jet plane projects had already started before the war.

I think I like this idea best of all. I didn't want to postpone Barbarossa, but this specific timeline works, being plausible and workable.

 

[Genghis Kawaii]

Sure, that's all they would need to do...

Tremendous superiority or not, some German jets will get downed. It happened IRL, and it will happen here. Once they get some engineers to have a close look at some intact wrecks, they can get a design drawn and an assembly line built within around 12-18 months.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

Tremendous superiority or not, some German jets will get downed. It happened IRL, and it will happen here. Once they get some engineers to have a close look at some intact wrecks, they can get a design drawn and an assembly line built within around 12-18 months.

You seriously underestimate the difficulty of "reverse engineering", especially of a complex new technology which is pushing the limits of materials and manufacturing ability. The Me-262 barely worked for the Germans. British engineers trying to copy it would have immense difficulties, even if they had an intact example. Something that's crashed? Fuggedaboudit.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

I think I like this idea best of all. I didn't want to postpone Barbarossa, but this specific timeline works, being plausible and workable.

Thanks! Some of it is connected. The delayed victory over France is required to get FDR out and Wheeler in, which is required to keep the U.S. out. The delay in the west and ongoing action in Spain/Africa prevents Germany from launching BARBAROSSA in 1941. With the Allies near collapse, Stalin would intervene. That was his plan - for the Allies and Germany to fight as long as possible, then jump in when they were weakened. While the Soviet Army would do some damage, this is also the army that has been gutted in the purges and just started to recover. Once the Germans checked the initial surprise, they would slice'n'dice the Soviets - though not as badly as OTL 1941. Thus the Eastern Front becomes a stalemate.

 

[von hitchofen]

I don't want Barbarossa delayed. I like the idea of Germany having more initial success and, once things start to get bad, performing tactical retreats instead of ridiculously holding at all cost. That alone could drag out the war immensely.

ahh yes, more Jews for the Final Solution, Moscow turned into a lake.

<sarcasm>How marvellous, do carry on</sarcasm>

 

[Smaug]

German industry listens to ford on assembly lines, instead of craftlike, non interchangeable parts