How do I drag on the Second World War?

[Genghis Kawaii]

My AT needs a realistic way for the European theatre to drag on for at least 2-3 years longer, preferably more. The United Kingdom cannot be knocked out of the war, and the Royal Air Force must remain intact, though it can be weakened if necessary. Do what you must with America, the Soviet Union, France, Japan, North Africa, the Pacific, Italy, and so on. The Luftwaffe must remain largely intact. The date of the divergence from history is unimportant, as are most of the nations involved in the war aside from the UK and Germany. What is important is an air campaign between the Royal Air Force and the Luftwaffe in 1948 or later in which either side has a fair chance to win.

I'd also prefer to find a way to forstall the invention of jet aircraft, if at all possible, but if this can't realistically be done, I can live with having my AT's characters fly Vampires instead of
Spitefuls.

 

[asupackman]

Calbear has a good timeline in the finished timelines board that stretches it into the 50's but there's a long lull in the war.

 

[BELFAST]

No battle of Britain in 1940.
Malta falls after France.
Heuy long wins 1936 election and 1940
Harry Truman elected in 1944.
Manhattan project start delayed until 1945.
No lead lease.
British must pay Americans for all supplies.
Most imports after 1941 come only from empire.
Rommel arrives in Libya after the fall of France and take Egypt and gets as far as border Iran Iraq border.
Germany does not have treaty with Japan.
American continues to sell oil to Japan.
No attack Pearl harbour before 1945.
Germany does not invade Soviets until 1942.
Germany by 1945 is in a stale mate in soviet union with big soviet partisans problem behind front lines.

 

[Genghis Kawaii]

No battle of Britain in 1940.
Malta falls after France.
Heuy long wins 1936 election and 1940
Harry Truman elected in 1944.
Manhattan project start delayed until 1945.
No lead lease.
British must pay Americans for all supplies.
Most imports after 1941 come only from empire.
Rommel arrives in Libya after the fall of France and take Egypt and gets as far as border Iran Iraq border.
Germany does not have treaty with Japan.
American continues to sell oil to Japan.
No attack Pearl harbour before 1945.
Germany does not invade Soviets until 1942.
Germany by 1945 is in a stale mate in soviet union with big soviet partisans problem behind front lines.

How plausible is each of these events?

 

[Genghis Kawaii]

If I take the above suggested timeline, would Britain be best off defending the homeland, invading France, or invading Scandinavia?

During WW2, the UK allowed women to undergo combat duty as anti-aircraft gunners, while the Soviet Union allowed them to be bomber pilots. I believe that, with a longer, more exausting war, the UK may decide to emulate the Soviets out of a shortage of competant pilots. I want to extend this to cover all combat pilot roles, revolving my TL around Britain's first female squadrons as they deploy against the Wehrmacht in the skies over Europe.

 

[Gunnarnz]

During WW2, the UK allowed women to undergo combat duty as anti-aircraft gunners, while the Soviet Union allowed them to be bomber pilots.

And fighter pilots. And snipers. And commanders of ground-attack squadrons. And no doubt a host of other combat trades as well, although those are the most well-known. Really, the USSR was quite progressive in what it allowed women to do (although being invaded by the Germans probably helped focus their minds in that regard).

 

[MerryPrankster]

I remember reading in the book The New Dealer's War, there was fear in certain quarters in America that if Chiang Kai-Shek wasn't properly supported, he'd throw up his hands in the air and submit to the Japanese.

If the Japanese could bend significant numbers of Chinese to their will, that would broaden their manpower pool considerably and possibly allow for schemes to transfer industrial base to the Asian mainland.

Or maybe if the Japanese are less grotesquely heavy-handed, they can count on more local support against the European colonial powers, reducing the costs of holding the conquered territories, gaining more local production, and more local manpower.

Also, someone suggested having Japanese submarines target merchant ships instead of warships only.

 

[hairysamarian]

D-Day could be delayed by a disruption in UK-US diplomacy. Iirc, Eisenhower spent much of his time in command smoothing troubled waters. And if Germany doesn't attack Russia in '41, that meatgrinder could easily be delayed. Between those two, that could buy you your time.

Actually, didn't the original German plan call for hostilities to begin in the mid-'40s sometime? There's your delay right there, if Hitler doesn't choose to go ahead in '39.

 

[hairysamarian]

How plausible is each of these events?

Individually or collectively? Collectively, I think some Alien Space Bat will be winning the Pulitzer prize for fiction.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

My AT needs a realistic way for the European theatre to drag on for at least 2-3 years longer, preferably more. The United Kingdom cannot be knocked out of the war, and the Royal Air Force must remain intact, though it can be weakened if necessary.

Do what you must with America, the Soviet Union, France, Japan, North Africa, the Pacific, Italy, and so on. The Luftwaffe must remain largely intact. The date of the divergence from history is unimportant, as are most of the nations involved in the war aside from the UK and Germany. What is important is an air campaign between the Royal Air Force and the Luftwaffe in 1948 or later in which either side has a fair chance to win.

Two divergences:


1936 - General Sanjurjo sensibly flies from Lisbon to Salamanca in the De Havilland Rapide rather than romantically taking Ansaldo's two-seater - is not killed in a crash.

1940 - Allied codebreakers re-break Enigma a month earlier.

Narrative:

Enigma decrypts alert the Allies to the German invasion of Norway. They defeat it completely.

In the gloating over the Norway victory, the break into Enigma leaks to the Germans.

Between Norway and the huge security breach, the Germans postpone the attack on France by three months.

July - with the war in Europe stalemated, FDR decides that the crisis does not require him to continue as President. The Democrats nominate Sen. Burton Wheeler of Idaho, a fiery New Dealer and also fanatic Isolationist.

August - Germany attacks in the West, but the Allies have had three additonal months to prepare. The Germans gain only a limited success by the end of 1940. France is just short of collapse but Germany isn't much better off.

In November - Wheeler narrowly wins election over novice candidate Willkie. Wheeler declares that the U.S. will not aid the Allies, nor even relax the Neutrality Act restrictions on selling arms. He will veto any such moves.

1941

Hitler persuades Mussolini and Sanjurjo to bring Italy and Spain into the war on the German side.

April - Renewed German attacks fail to break Allied forces, but then attacks from Spain and Italy drive into the Allied rear. Allied forces in France collapse. The French government flees to North Africa in June.

June - Axis forces attack French North Africa and Egypt. Allied naval superiority compensates for Axis air and land strength. However U-boats and surface raiders hurt Allied shipping. French colonial and British Empire/Commonwealth troops put up lots of resistance.

August - President Wheeler has said the U.S. will do nothing about Japan and Euro colonies in Asia. Japan now seizes Indochina, Malaya, the Indies, and the South Pacific. (Air raids by unopposed Japanese fleets force Australia and New Zealand to declare neutrality.) The Indian Congress also declares neutrality. British forces hold Ceylon, parts of southern India, what is now Pakistan, and Punjab.

September - French North Africa falls to the Axis. Fighting continues in Libya and northwest Africa.

October - Soviet forces attack west into Germany.

December - German reserves halt Soviet attacks just outside Berlin.

1942

April - Skilful German counterattacks shatter the Soviet forward echelons (still under mediocre post-purge leaders). Assisted by Romania, the Germans drive deep into Soviet territory, capturing Minsk, Riga, and Kiev, with over 1M prisoners.

The stage is now set. The Axis, including Spain, versus the USSR, Britain (minus much of the Empire), and and the French colonial empire. ISTM this war could go on a long time - easily until 1948.

The USSR is not getting any Lend-Lease aid, which OTL represented about 1/3 of its war materiel. There were many categories in which the Soviets were entirely dependent or nearly so on Lend-Lease: locomotives and freight cars, telephone cable, trucks, radios.

Britain is horribly crippled and must fight Japan alone; she can't do much except contain the Axis in Africa and try to bomb Germany.

I'd also prefer to find a way to forstall the invention of jet aircraft, if at all possible, but if this can't realistically be done,

IMO no. Multiple jet plane projects had already started before the war.

I can live with having my AT's characters fly Vampires instead of
Spitefuls.

 

[aktarian]

And fighter pilots. And snipers. And commanders of ground-attack squadrons. And no doubt a host of other combat trades as well, although those are the most well-known. Really, the USSR was quite progressive in what it allowed women to do (although being invaded by the Germans probably helped focus their minds in that regard).

It had a lot to do with manpower shortages so they had to fill those gaps with womanpower. I think in the end RA had something like 10% of women though they, to a large degree, filled non-combat roles such a communications, traffic control.... Combat roles that are most well known were not as common as people seem to think.

 

[PulkitNahata]

It did technicaly last till 1990.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_extended_by_diplomatic_irregularity

 

[von hitchofen]

Hitler will NOT delay the invasion of USSR - as far as he's concerned it is the whole point of the war - that and the destruction of European Jewry

preparation for invasion began in September 1940

you want Barbarossa delayed, or less resources devoted to the "Jewish problem" - choose another Nazi leader - not Hitler, not Himmler, not Heydrich

everything that he has done militarily up to June 1941 is to prepare for the attack on Russia to smash Bolshevism as a political force

the longer he waits the stronger the USSR becomes

many people, who don't know a great deal about Nazi ideological thought, think of the Ostfront as just another campaign in WWII

Hitler, however, did not. Defeating Bolshevism was his obssession, to the point of mania, the only thing that could delay it is France fighting much harder than it did - which might delay the planning by two months

Everything else was a sideshow to the Drang nach Osten

The length of time the second world war lasted, was pretty much as long as it could last.

Even assuming D-Day "failing" which is massively unlikely, the Reich would be overrun by the Soviets by Autumn 1946 at the earliest.

 

[BELFAST]

If I take the above suggested timeline, would Britain be best off defending the homeland, invading France, or invading Scandinavia?

During WW2, the UK allowed women to undergo combat duty as anti-aircraft gunners, while the Soviet Union allowed them to be bomber pilots. I believe that, with a longer, more exausting war, the UK may decide to emulate the Soviets out of a shortage of competant pilots. I want to extend this to cover all combat pilot roles, revolving my TL around Britain's first female squadrons as they deploy against the Wehrmacht in the skies over Europe.

I see Britain defending the homeland and the convoys.
It does not have the resources to invade France or Scandinavia.
I see Britain taking the fight to the Germans only after America enters the war in middle to late 1945 after the election of Harry Truman.

 

[BELFAST]

Hitler will NOT delay the invasion of USSR - as far as he's concerned it is the whole point of the war - that and the destruction of European Jewry

preparation for invasion began in September 1940

you want Barbarossa delayed, or less resources devoted to the "Jewish problem" - choose another Nazi leader - not Hitler, not Himmler, not Heydrich

everything that he has done militarily up to June 1941 is to prepare for the attack on Russia to smash Bolshevism as a political force

the longer he waits the stronger the USSR becomes

many people, who don't know a great deal about Nazi ideological thought, think of the Ostfront as just another campaign in WWII

Hitler, however, did not. Defeating Bolshevism was his obssession, to the point of mania, the only thing that could delay it is France fighting much harder than it did - which might delay the planning by two months

Everything else was a sideshow to the Drang nach Osten

The length of time the second world war lasted, was pretty much as long as it could last.

Even assuming D-Day "failing" which is massively unlikely, the Reich would be overrun by the Soviets by Autumn 1946 at the earliest.

Delay in the invasion of Russia might be possible if a lot of german troops were committed to the north African and the middle east.

I agree with you the war on the eastern front war the main purpose of the war.

German will invade the USSR when they invade depends on resources and timing.

 

[Max Sinister]

A different US president definitely would help. I think not many POTUSes (POTI? ) would like to help the Soviet Union.

 

[wietze]

indeed, just no lend lease to the soviets would lengthen the war considerably.

 

[von hitchofen]

Or shorten it!

 

[von hitchofen]

I'd also prefer to find a way to forstall the invention of jet aircraft, if at all possible, but if this can't realistically be done, I can live with having my AT's characters fly Vampires instead of Spitefuls.

the only way to lengthen the war is make the Axis stronger, or the Allies weaker [or both]

the advent of Allied jet fighters/High performance piston engine aircraft like the Spiteful gets pushed further and further into the future by doing either

why put into production more powerful aircraft, when the war effort demands more Spitfire IXs, Lancasters, Mosquitoes

 

[Cook]

Actually, didn't the original German plan call for hostilities to begin in the mid-'40s sometime? There's your delay right there, if Hitler doesn't choose to go ahead in '39.

Yes, the Fuhrer conference November 10, 1937; Hitler was planning for a war commencing in the 1943-45 time period and German rearmament reflected this. One of the key requirements stipulated for the invasion of Poland was that it had to be politically isolated from the western democracies so that they would not respond; Hitler knew Germany was not ready for a wider war 1939. Ribbentrop continued to tell Hitler that the British and French would do nothing, despite mounting evidence to the contrary. Remove Ribbentrop (or never have him become Foreign Minister) and war in 1939 becomes much less likely.

Hitler will NOT delay the invasion of USSR - as far as he's concerned it is the whole point of the war.

The long term goal was the invasion of the Soviet Union, but the timing of it in 1941 was by no means set in stone, the decision to attack in 1941 was considered as a means of bringing England to the peace table. From Halder’s diary:

13 July 1940.
“The question in the forefront of the Führer's mind is why England is still unwilling to make peace; like us, he thinks that the answer is that England still has some hope of action on the part of Russia.”

31 July 1940
"[According to Hitler] Britain's hope lies in Russia and the United States. If Russia drops out of the picture America, too, is lost for Britain… Russia is the factor upon which Britain is relying most. With Russia smashed, Britain's last hope would be shattered. Decision: Russia's destruction must therefore be made a part of this struggle"

My AT needs a realistic way for the European theatre to drag on for at least 2-3 years longer, preferably more. The United Kingdom cannot be knocked out of the war...

If most or all of the B.E.F. is lost but Britain remains in the war, the United States may opt to focus on the defence of the Western Hemisphere and not provide aid to Britain on the rationale that any aid sent to Britain was a waste. If that were to occur, Britain may limp along but would Hitler would be able to afford to let her ‘wither on the vine’ while he focused on preparations for the much larger war against the Soviet Union in the time frame he had originally intended.