EnglishCanucthe wake of a: 16566208 said:
Because, like the Monroe Doctrine, it meant Jack and squat to the powers of Europe until 1914. Had Great Britain decided to annex or declare Hawaii a protectorate anytime between 1800 and 1900 the most the U.S. could have done would be grumble about it.


What he said. In the wake of a failed coup, no matter how much Washington tries to distance itself, the Hawaiian monarchy will view any subsequent American actions (private or government) with suspicion. They will withdraw from the Us and closer to the other great powers of the Pacific. Only Britain, with bases or favourable governments with bases in the Pacific has the capability of maintaing Hawaiian independence with a sufficiently hands off attitude to suit the monarchy's interest. This probably leads to a defacto co-protectorate post 1920. British protection does not have to negate US economic interests entirely. Those are still likely to exist.
 
Ie that the UK could have annexed Hawaii before the 1870s pretty easily, after that there were risks. The question is, especially in the last third of the 19th century, why piss off the USA over Hawaii.


But in this case the Us interests have damaged their position, Americans are now at the back of the pack politically speaking in Hawaii. It will take them a generation to undo the political damage. Without American direct or indirect control, British indirect control is the best case scenario to help in mitigating that negative political baggage and preserving US economic interests. Hawaii ends up late 20th century with a relationship to the US similar to Canada, Australia, New Zealand or the W. Samoas.
 
BTW, a good example of how Galapagos.ialist mind works: In the mid-1890's Henry Cabot Lodge and other expansionists said that the US had to have Hawaii to defend a future isthmian canal. About a decade later, they said that the US needed the Panama Canal to defend Hawaii...

Sounds like posturing and jingoism to me and honestly circular reasoning. Did anyone say that about the Galapagos? Okay arguably Ecuador is not a threat as long as they favour US position. Wait, so would British protection of Hawaii. The point is US political capital in Hawaii will take a damaging hit. OTL the American coup, while irritating, did not damage British strategic interests in the Pacific because of the generally favourable Anglo-British political dynamic. With a failed coup, the British will have to take a more active role not just to save guard their own interests but the Americans as well, by default. The already informal protection will likely be more formalized by the Hawaiian monarchy in the wake of these events.
 
I was talking primarily about the 1890's and 1900's. By that time, while never quite officially recognizing the Monroe Doctrine, the British did often refer to it favorably--as Dexter Perkins notes, Britain came closer to official recognition than any other power. Perhaps more important, Britain in that era made plenty of actual concessions to the US (Venezuelan border compromise, Alaskan border settlement, Hay-Pauncefote Treaty). And by that time it was clear (especially after the 1875 Reciprocity Treaty) that US interests in the Islands were far greater than Britain's ever could be. If in spite of that Britain attempted to annex or declare a protectorate over the Islands, not only would she be acting totally out of character with her general foreign policy for this era, but it is not true that the US could do nothing about it. As I noted, US steel production by 1900 was nearly equal to that of Great Britain and Germany combined--and facing a naval arms race against Germany and a hostile US is not something Great Britain would want. (Not to mention all the other reasons she would not want an unnecessary quarrel with the US.)

By 1900 yes, but British annexation of Hawaii, even in the 1870s, is not an automatic deal breaker for the US. If a Hawaiian monarch had chosen to request protectorate status from Great Britain, it would be in keeping with British policy to accept. Hawaii is patently not in the Americans, and British policy towards the United States was conciliatory in the sphere of the Americas. Though they were not hostile to American expansion in the Far East, they'd have no reason to be completely conciliatory towards it either. And Hawaii could be a sticking point Britain might see worth stepping on Washington's toes over. Especially if the Hawaiians themselves were the ones making the point.

Disputes over marginal borders in Venezuela or Alaska are not strategic concessions, but a Hawaii openly appealing for British protection and it being rejected, would be one. That is something I don't think Britain would be prepared to risk. If it was an appeal after say, 1890, then Britain would probably try and negotiate a treaty guaranteeing Hawaiian independence rather than declare protectorate status, but before then I would say Britain would be willing to force the issue if it was at the Hawaiian monarchs' insistence.
 
What he said. In the wake of a failed coup, no matter how much Washington tries to distance itself, the Hawaiian monarchy will view any subsequent American actions (private or government) with suspicion.

That seems unlikely. If they were reading the News about Latin America, they should know that threatening American business in the eyes of the US government will trigger a reaction that could be fatal to them. Expropriation of American property is seen at this time a casus belli. Sanctions from Hawaii to US is likely to provoke a response too, although less likely for America to outright overthrow the monarchy. The most they could do without provoking a response is punish or expel people who obviously try to overthrow them (and since Washington is distancing itself, it can't argue that punishing people overthrowing a sosoveign is anti-American) and hope the new American businessmen care more about business than imperialisnm
 
That seems unlikely. If they were reading the News about Latin America, they should know that threatening American business in the eyes of the US government will trigger a reaction that could be fatal to them. Expropriation of American property is seen at this time a casus belli. Sanctions from Hawaii to US is likely to provoke a response too, although less likely for America to outright overthrow the monarchy. The most they could do without provoking a response is punish or expel people who obviously try to overthrow them (and since Washington is distancing itself, it can't argue that punishing people overthrowing a sosoveign is anti-American) and hope the new American businessmen care more about business than imperialisnm

Where do you get this "bull". Nobody said anything about expropriating anything, only that American influence would be looked on with disfavour and suspicion, pushing the Hawaiian monarchy towards one of the Pacific powers that would be "less overtly threatening". There still a sovereign kingdom and the government can still act in its own best interests.
 
Disputes over marginal borders in Venezuela or Alaska are not strategic concessions, but a Hawaii openly appealing for British protection and it being rejected, would be one. That is something I don't think Britain would be prepared to risk. If it was an appeal after say, 1890, then Britain would probably try and negotiate a treaty guaranteeing Hawaiian independence rather than declare protectorate status, but before then I would say Britain would be willing to force the issue if it was at the Hawaiian monarchs' insistence.

I have just been reading from Ralph S. Kuykendall, The Hawaiian Kingdom: 1874-1893, The Kalakaua Dynasty and it has an interesting discussion of some events of 1881:

***

Kalakaua's arrival in Europe and his progress from Italy to England its the early part of July furnished the occasion for numerous articles in American newspapers in regard to the Hawaiian islands, their king. and the relations between the island kingdom and the United States. One of the most important was an editorial in the New York Times of July 14, 1881, which began with the flat statement, "It is an open secret that Kalakaua, King of the Hawaiian Islands, is on a voyage around the world for the purpose of selling his kingdom." The writer referred to the extensive American interests in Hawaii and the importance of the islands to the United States, and remarked: "If annexation ever arrives, it must take the Islands to the United States, and that this step would be denounced by foreign residents who are not Americans is also true; but in any event, although our Government cannot afford to promote any policy of annexation, the other Governments of the world should be notified that any attempt on their part to acquire the Sandwich Islands, by purchase or otherwise, would be regarded by the United States as an unfriendly act." The Times article was telegraphed to Washington, San Francisco, and other parts of the United States, and to Europe. The assertion that Kalakaua was intent on selling his kingdom was promptly denied by Elisha H. Allen, Hawaiian minister to the United States, in letters to the Times, pub-lished in that paper on July 28, and to the secretary of state in Washington, In Europe, Kalakaua, when questioned, said there was "not a word of truth" in the report. "My kingdom is a constitutional monarchy, and the cession people talk of could not be effected in my absence or without a long discussion." But a report of that kind always runs faster and farther than the denial of it.

The Times editorial and other articles on the same theme were printed in San Francisco newspapers which reached Honolulu about the first of August, and were reprinted in the Hawaiian Gazette of August 3 and the Saturday Press of August 6. Those papers and the Pacific Commercial Advertiser published strong editorials denying and condemning the false reports that were being circulated in the United States and Europe. The Advertiser said in its issue of August 13, "It is well understood that the entire story about the sale of a kingdom is a mischievous hoax originating here." It suggested that some foreign residents wanted a change for the benefit of their business interests.

Queen Emma, with whom Commissioner Wodehouse had always been on the most friendly terms, was, as he stated, greatly distressed by Secretary Blaine's remarks to Sir Edward Thornton, which served to intensify her anti-American, pro-British feelings. Immediately after the New York Times editorial and other articles from American newspapers were published in Honolulu, she wrote a letter to the commissioner, from which the following excerpts are taken:

"The sudden and bold uncovering of America's long cherished wish (which they have always denied) to possess these Islands . .. has caused me great, great grief and anxiety. . . . I consider that America is now our open enemy, and that to England would be our natural course to look for strengthening, and that as we have bounden friends in England and France, America cannot carry out her high-handed policy with regard to these Hawaiian Islands....

"The Native Hawaiians . . . are one with me in the love of our country, and determined not to let Hawaii become a part of the United States of America. We have yet the right to dispose of our country as we wish, and be assured that it will never be to a Republic!

"I do not wish to inveigle you into committing yourself or your Government, but for our safety, I repeat a question once put to you confidentially by a relative of mine from the Throne, Kamehameha V, whether, in case of emergency, England would take these Islands should we give ourselves up to her?"

In reply to the queen dowager's question, Wodehouse pointed out to her that such a course as she suggested would certainly involve England in a war with the United States [my emphasis--DT] and would moreover be a breach of the agreement between England and France by which they bound themselves to recognize the independence of the Hawaiian islands and not to take possession of them under any form whatever. He transmitted to the British foreign minister a copy of Queen Emma's letter and in his dispatch on the subject included a statement of his reply to her question. His action in this case received the approval of Earl Granville.

http://www.ulukau.org/elib/cgi-bin/...set-book--1-010escapewin&a=d&d=D0.11.15&toc=0

***

In other words, here is the British government in the early 1880s's--long before the 1890's when the prospect of a hostile Germany made Britain more determined to avoid conflict with the United States--specifically turning down Queen Emma's request that Great Britain take control of the Islands if necessary to protect them from the Americans. And Commissioner Wodehouse is explicitly giving the alleged certainty (not just possibility) that such an action would lead to war with the US as a reason...

So whatever else may be said about the viewpoint of you and some others here that the British need not worry about US reaction to British control of Hawaii, it does not seem to have been the viewpoint of the British government itself!
 
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I don't know. British Hawaii falls to Japan WWII, okay, let's say no major butterflies up to that point, (NOT that any specific person alive today would be around) but Japanese attacks on US trade routes or the California coast bring US into WWII for sure, but with emphasis on the Pacific, Not Europe, so...lucky for Brits we got Hawaii or they'd be speaking German at Oxford.

This is off topic, but Sealion wouldn't have happened even if the US never entered the war.
 
The idea that America would not let UK turn Hawaii into a protectorate is silly.

The British government doesn't seem to have thought so.

***
Queen Emma, with whom Commissioner Wodehouse had always been on the most friendly terms, was, as he stated, greatly distressed by Secretary Blaine's remarks to Sir Edward Thornton, which served to intensify her anti-American, pro-British feelings. Immediately after the New York Times editorial and other articles from American newspapers were published in Honolulu, she wrote a letter to the commissioner, from which the following excerpts are taken:

"The sudden and bold uncovering of America's long cherished wish (which they have always denied) to possess these Islands . . . has caused me great, great grief and anxiety. . . . I consider that America is now our open enemy, and that to England would be our natural course to look for strengthening, and that as we have bounden friends in England and France, America cannot carry out her high-handed policy with regard to these Hawaiian Islands. . . .

"The Native Hawaiians . . . are one with me in the love of our country, and determined not to let Hawaii become a part of the United States of America. We have yet the right to dispose of our country as we wish, and be assured that it will never be to a Republic!

"I do not wish to inveigle you into committing yourself or your Government, but for our safety, I repeat a question once put to you confidentially by a relative of mine from the Throne, Kamehameha V, whether, in case of emergency, England would take these Islands should we give ourselves up to her?

In reply to the queen dowager's question, Wodehouse pointed out to her that such a course as she suggested would certainly involve England in a war with the United States [my emphasis--DT] and would moreover be a breach of the agreement between England and France by which they bound themselves to recognize the independence of the Hawaiian islands and not to take possession of them under any form whatever. He transmitted to the British foreign minister a copy of Queen Emma's letter and in his dispatch on the subject included a statement of his reply to her question.41 His action in this case received the approval of Earl Granville..."

Ralph S. Kuykendall, The Hawaiian Kingdom, vol. 3, 1874-1893, The Kalakaua Dynasty

http://www.ulukau.org/elib/cgi-bin/...set-book--1-010escapewin&a=d&d=D0.11.16&toc=0
 
I have just been reading from Ralph S. Kuykendall, The Hawaiian Kingdom: 1874-1893, The Kalakaua Dynasty and it has an interesting discussion of some events of 1881:

In other words, here is the British government in the early 1880s's--long before the 1890's when the prospect of a hostile Germany made Britain more determined to avoid conflict with the United States--specifically turning down Queen Emma's request that Great Britain take control of the Islands if necessary to protect them from the Americans. And Commissioner Wodehouse is explicitly giving the alleged certainty (not just possibility) that such an action would lead to war with the US as a reason...

So whatever else may be said about the viewpoint of you and some others here that the British need not worry about US reaction to British control of Hawaii, it does not seem to have been the viewpoint of the British government itself!

This is an excellent source, thank you for pointing it out. I'll concede that a direct source on the matter from the British government is a good reason, and a direct response to Queen Dowager Emma in the negative is a definite blow against the theory, in the 1880s or perhaps even the 1870s. However, I would maintain that had Kamehameha IV lived longer he may have been able to wrangle protection from Britain as it would have been state policy to turn American influence away, or at least seek foreign protection.

This might end up being a failed foreign policy, but it could go the other way.
 
This is an excellent source, thank you for pointing it out. I'll concede that a direct source on the matter from the British government is a good reason, and a direct response to Queen Dowager Emma in the negative is a definite blow against the theory, in the 1880s or perhaps even the 1870s. However, I would maintain that had Kamehameha IV lived longer he may have been able to wrangle protection from Britain as it would have been state policy to turn American influence away, or at least seek foreign protection.

This might end up being a failed foreign policy, but it could go the other way.

I guess the Hawaii isn't going to escape the American annexation for more than a generation, unless they basically throw themselves into British hands. For the short term, the British don't want to be involved. In the long term of a failed coup attempt, if they make enough overtures to the British, they can shame the Americans into going away.



Hawaiian Ambassador "So you deny that America wants to overthrow our King/Queen (depending when this happens"

Secretary of State/POTUS "Yes"

Hawaiian Ambassador "And as long as Hawaii respects American private property, the American government will not interfere"

Secretary of State/POTUS "This is correct"

Hawaiian Ambassador "And what do you say about the failed coup thirty two years ago?"

Secretary of State/POTUS "We have always pointed out Baine acted on his own. Your expelling him and fining his company were acts of a sovereign nation punishing dissenters. We have not condoned his actions nor condem your reaction"

Hawaiian Ambassador "What do you say about our proposal last year for our King/Queen to abdicate and hand over the throne to George (what's the number?)?"

SOS "America opposes this move. If you continue your proposal, in five years you will lose your independence to Britain"

Hawaiian Ambassador "Is this not Hawaiiian internal affairs?"

S "Many external powers such as Britain, France, America, and others have decades ago agreed on staying out of each other's spheres of influences"

Hawaiian Ambassador "Are you saying Hawaii belongs to America? Or are you implying the fate of Hawaii can be determined without Hawaii's say?"

SOS "No. Again, if nothing threatens American private property, we have no quarrel with your kingdom"

Hawaiian Ambassador "Do you believe the British crown would act against American property rights?"

SOS "I believe he has no interest in American interests and he is more concerned with the welfare of British subjects"

Hawaiian Ambassador "Do you believe the British would expropriate American property?"

SOS "... No"

Hawaiian Ambassador "Then Hawaii handing over the crown to George should not threaten American private property. All the issues you claim might be objectionable would be non issues on the union of the crowns"
 
Actually, there would be no need for the King/Queen of Hawaii to abdicate. There would just be a British Resident, that would control the foreign and defence policy, on behalf of the Empire.
 
Is there any way to secure Hawaii's independence by getting the competing interests to grudgingly agree that an independent Hawai'i benefits them all (kind of like the international of Shanghai) ?
 
Is there any way to secure Hawaii's independence by getting the competing interests to grudgingly agree that an independent Hawai'i benefits them all (kind of like the international of Shanghai) ?

The OTL Hawaiians felt that without British protection, they were vulnerable to American hegemony. I don't know if protection means annexation, dominion, sphere of influence, or mere words. After TTL failed coup, they must feel that they need some tie to Britain, even if it is just a treaty to keep the Americans away. So maybe a Shanghai solution would work, but the locals don't think so. Of course, in OTL, their opinion was irrlevent anyways...
 
In my TL, I plan to make Hawai'i independent through the U.S acquiring Pearl Harbour, which will spook the Hawai'i royals into seeking an independence guarantee (with firepower attached) with some of the major Powers and middling nations in the Pacific Rim.

I must note though that this plan is mostly a tangential sideline to the TL's main plot, and that it mostly hinges around a POD waaaay in the 1840's. I also have at least one sensible Hawai'ian monarch surviving past this OTL death, and the monarchy itself having close relations with the royalties of Malaya, and particularly Sultan Abu Bakar of Johor, who had close contact with Queen Victoria and the British monarchy IOTL.

In my view, an independent Hawai'i is plausible, but it requires some sleuthing and back-door diplomacy to make it work, as well as making unexpected connections.
 

Deleted member 2186

I guess the Hawaii isn't going to escape the American annexation for more than a generation, unless they basically throw themselves into British hands. For the short term, the British don't want to be involved. In the long term of a failed coup attempt, if they make enough overtures to the British, they can shame the Americans into going away.



Hawaiian Ambassador "So you deny that America wants to overthrow our King/Queen (depending when this happens"

Secretary of State/POTUS "Yes"

Hawaiian Ambassador "And as long as Hawaii respects American private property, the American government will not interfere"

Secretary of State/POTUS "This is correct"

Hawaiian Ambassador "And what do you say about the failed coup thirty two years ago?"

Secretary of State/POTUS "We have always pointed out Baine acted on his own. Your expelling him and fining his company were acts of a sovereign nation punishing dissenters. We have not condoned his actions nor condem your reaction"

Hawaiian Ambassador "What do you say about our proposal last year for our King/Queen to abdicate and hand over the throne to George (what's the number?)?"

SOS "America opposes this move. If you continue your proposal, in five years you will lose your independence to Britain"

Hawaiian Ambassador "Is this not Hawaiiian internal affairs?"

S "Many external powers such as Britain, France, America, and others have decades ago agreed on staying out of each other's spheres of influences"

Hawaiian Ambassador "Are you saying Hawaii belongs to America? Or are you implying the fate of Hawaii can be determined without Hawaii's say?"

SOS "No. Again, if nothing threatens American private property, we have no quarrel with your kingdom"

Hawaiian Ambassador "Do you believe the British crown would act against American property rights?"

SOS "I believe he has no interest in American interests and he is more concerned with the welfare of British subjects"

Hawaiian Ambassador "Do you believe the British would expropriate American property?"

SOS "... No"

Hawaiian Ambassador "Then Hawaii handing over the crown to George should not threaten American private property. All the issues you claim might be objectionable would be non issues on the union of the crowns"
That is a short but nice discussion.
 
I'm convinced that Hawaiian independence can only be sustained by becoming a British protectorate. For that to happen, it would have had to happen in the 1840's. (As others have pointed out, by 1880's it's far too late.) I don't think the U.S. was sufficiently certain of its own priorities to protest a British protectorate that was advocated by the Hawaiian government and approved by the population. Critical differences from OTL would most probably need to include (a) reduced influence of American missionaries, (b) Liholiho survives measles in London and develops good relationships with George IV and the government, and (c) Richard Charlton is not appointed consul. The last would reasonably follow from (b). To achieve (a), I have a very early POD, whereby Hawaiians invent writing sometime in the 15th/16th century, well before contact with the West. As a result, missionaries do not get the immense advantage they gained by introducing Hawaiians to writing. Without being the source of literacy, missionaries are only offering religion, which although they lucked out on timing (coming right after the destruction of the traditional religious establishment) was never as popular as literacy among Hawaiians.
 

Kaze

Banned
Liliʻuokalani was invited to Queen Victoria's Golden Jubilee. However, by her attendance at the Golden Jubilee, it was too little too late. Yet, I could see timeline where Hawaii becomes like the British Raj in the Pacific. At least until World War Two - then all bets are off.

At the same time Liliʻuokalani tried to make a military alliance with Japan - it was a miserable attempt on her part. However, by that time, it was too little too late. So Japanese annexing it making it the Manchugo of the Pacific is a possible time-line. It would work at least until World War Two - then all bets are off.
 
Here’s a scenerio, what if the Hawaiian Monarchy never fell, but the Americans annexed the island of Oahu.

To me, Oahu would be the Hong Kong to the Hawaiians: territory that was yours before, only to be stolen by another power
 
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