"Welcome back to "Christmas in Afghanistan" here on NBC. The Rockettes have just finished their number and the brave men and women out here were clearly pleased with the performance. If you had told me a year ago that I would be spending Christmas in Afghanistan with the fine men and women of the 133rd Infantry Regiment I would not believe you. Up next is Aretha Franklin who is going to get everyone in the holiday spirit with her rendition of "Silent Night." Wait....something is happening. There are loud pops going off all around the camp, it could very well be semi-automatic gunfire. Oh my god.......it's a truck. A truck is driving through the camp and running some personnel over. As you can see MP jeeps are being sent after the truck which is taking heavy damage from gunfire. The truck is now stopping. Could it be.......oh my God. GET DOWN!!!"- Brian Williams broadcasting from Afghanistan (12/24/2001)
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"Nuclear explosion goes off at U.S. military camp during Christmas celebration. Numerous celebrities including Brian Williams, Aretha Franklin, and General Norman H. Schwarzkopf are among those feared dead"- CNN (12/24/2001)
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George W. Bush: "What the hell happened? I thought you said that they only had enough uranium to make one nuclear bomb"
Richard A. Clarke: "That is what our intelligence led us to believe sir. We were wrong"
George W. Bush: "You are the National Security Advisor to the President of the United States. YOU DON'T GET TO BE WRONG!!! I expect your resignation on my desk first thing in the morning"
Richard A. Clarke: "But sir..."
George W. Bush: "First thing in the morning"
(Conversation overheard between President George W. Bush and National Security Advisor Richard A. Clarke) (12/24/2001)
 
Hello DEFCON 1. I think Bush is going to take a VERY hard line now. Nuclear retaliation is now a must, bust can still be focused.
 
Hello DEFCON 1. I think Bush is going to take a VERY hard line now. Nuclear retaliation is now a must, bust can still be focused.
Who do they retaliate against? They seem to have overcome the Taliban quickly and occupied much of Afghanistan. Does the US know yet where Bin Laden is hiding and where his stock of atomic weapons is? Otherwise, which countries should the US attack next?

- Saudi Arabia maybe, unless it's giving clear evidence of action against Al Qaeda. But, given the presence of Mecca and Medina, hat could still be viewed as unwise. Or, cynical me, the financial links between the Al Saud family and various US interests/families, might still prevent this option. for a while anyway.
 
Well I was going off the Tora Bora is still the mountain fortress.

Russia is the real wildcard here, as I'd imagine Putin wearing a lot of brown suits these days.

If Iran is smart, now's a great time to sell out the Sunnis.
 
I want to be clear, I really like the idea. But there are some holes. I just want to offer these as good faith critiques. Nuclear weapons, continuity of government, and national security stuff is my bugaboo, so it may come across as unfairly harsh, but I'd like to offer them to help you tighten up the plausibility of everything.

Bush: "Get Colin, Dick, Condie, and Don on the phone"
Card: (hesitates) "I'm afraid that's not possible sir"
Bush: "Are they?"
Card: "We assume so sir"

Okay, so you have Rumsfeld testifying before Congress on the 11th. That's fair. But Colin Powell is presumably in Foggy Bottom or the White House. Rice and Cheney are presumably also at the White House. As soon as that flash goes the WH is going into lock down and everyone is going to the Situation Room ala 9/11. Even using a larger, Fat Man type device the WH is outside the blast radius for physical damage, especially since it is a hardened building.

And as mentioned else where, there were radio-logical sensors in DC pre-9/11. I don't think that would rule something like this out, I do think it would have to limit the amount of fissionable material in the bomb itself, ie have to be smaller yield. It wouldn't be a high-kiloton warhead, let alone a multi-megaton weapon that could effective destroy all of the DC.

Now tens of thousands will certainly be killed, and the numbers wounded would be enough to overwhelm every single hospital in the Eastern US. So it's certainly still a really big thing. The fires that will be raging out of control will be another problem.

"We are getting unconfirmed reports that some kind of emergency is going on in Washington, D.C. All of our D.C. affiliates are offline so we are unable to confirm what everyone fears. Based on what some of our colleagues in Maryland and Virginia have seen it is believed that one or more nuclear explosions have gone off in D.C. God help us all"- Brian Williams

Most of the local affiliates in DC are located well into the north-western portion of the District. CBS is on Wisconsin Ave near Tenleytown, Fox is on the same road up in Friendship Heights, NBC is on Nebraska Ave near the American University campus. They'll all be outside the blast radius, and EMP isn't really a thing for a ground burst. They will likely not have power, but they should have back-up generators on sight.

"President Bush declares temporary martial law in the following areas: Virginia, Maryland, New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago"- FOX News (October 11th, 2001)

The President needs Congressional approval to do so. But since there's no Congress or USSC to say no... nice touch!

Andrew Card: "No sir. We believe that the members of Congress, the Supreme Court, and the Cabinet all perished in the blast. Effectively you are the last remaining member of the Federal Government. You need to start thinking about reaching out to the Governors and talking about Senate appointments."

I can buy the Supreme Court. They would be in session and likely near the blast. I can buy most members of Congress, but not all. Even when the Congress is in session you can half the members out of town for various reasons. It is October, and many may be back in their districts to help with elections at the local level. I notice you have a cabinet member at a committee hearing during the attack, keep in mind that there's rarely more than 2 hearings held a day and they tend to happen at times when there isn't a major vote.

On the Cabinet- when they're not appearing before Congress, or meeting with the President they can be all over the place. They have their offices spread throughout the District of Columbia, and into Northern Virginia and Maryland. Commerce, Justice, Education, the Post Office would all be close to the blast. The FBI and the IRS would be major agencies that would be severely disrupted. Then you have things like the Defense Department, which is across the River with facilities that are specifically in place running the department in the event DC gets nuked. I can look into others if you'd like.

Keep in mind each cabinet department has its own line of succession. To use a current example when John Kelly resigned from DHS over the summer to become WH Chief of Staff a Deputy Secretary began serving as the Acting Secretary. These lines of succession are rooted through the Deputies, and through the Under Secretaries. For example the Defense Department, as of 2010, contains 29 individuals.

If Congress is dead, and so is the Supreme Court it would be more accurate to say that the Executive Branch is the only portion of the Federal Government. There's still dozens of officials who have been appointed by the Advise and Consent of the Senate. Then even with the Judiciary the lower level appeals courts will still be functioning.

"Breaking News: Osama Bin Laden claims responsibility for 10/11 nuclear attack in Washington, D.C. Bin Laden claims that more is coming"- CNN (10/14/2001)

This is fine, but it will severely mess with the Invasion of Afghanistan. OTL the Taliban refused to turn over OBL to the US government because they demanded proof that he was connected to the 9/11 attacks. If he's claiming credit the Taliban may move to kick him out of the country as fast as humanly possible. Remember, given the circumstances of the attack all options would be on the tables. Including nuclear retaliation.

"President Bush, Governor of Pennsylvania Tom Ridge, and Philadelphia Mayor John F. Street announce Philadelphia is the next home of the federal government"- The New York Times (10/22/2001)

Philly is fine, but I don't think all the Federal Departments will need to relocate to the city for now. Remember, each department has plans in case this happen and it's not post-9/11 planning. For example the Defense Department would wind down operations in the NMCC in the Pentagon, which is located safely underground, and relocate after the worse of the radiation has passed.

"The new members of the U.S. Senate were sworn in today. This represents the largest swearing in of new Senators since 1789. In a controversial move Governor of Georgia Roy Barnes appointed former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich to a seat formally held by a Democrat. In keeping with President Bush's wishes that the Senate hold the same number of Democrats and Republicans as those they are replacing, Governor Don Sundquist of Tennessee announced that he would appoint former VP Al Gore to a seat formally held by a Republican."- CNN (11/12/2001)

"The new members of the U.S. Senate were sworn in today. This represents the largest swearing in of new Senators since 1789. In a controversial move Governor of Georgia Roy Barnes appointed former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich to a seat formally held by a Democrat. In keeping with President Bush's wishes that the Senate hold the same number of Democrats and Republicans as those they are replacing, Governor Don Sundquist of Tennessee announced that he would appoint former VP Al Gore to a seat formally held by a Republican."- CNN (11/12/2001)

That's... awfully quick.

Different states are going to have different processes as specified by state law. Many states will allow the appointment of new Senators by the governor, but some states specify that a special election needs to held in X amount of days. I don't think they'd be able to throw a special election together that quickly. In that case you'd have a Senatorial quorum, but not a completely new Senate until at least the new year. Also, some of the Supreme Court, and Cabinet nominations seem anachronistic. Would Ben Carson's name show up on anyone's list at this time?

ere are the appointments to the U.S. Senate. President Bush requested that most of the new Senators have some type of Congressional/Legislative experience, if possible, in order to ensure the smooth transition from the old Senate to new Senate.

The Senate list seems even more anachronistic. Sarah Palin was the mayor of a small town in Alaska. Dan Quayle was a national embarrassment to the Republican Party, and also a resident of Arizona by this time. Al Franken didn't exhibit any political inclinations until well into the Bush Administration.

- Telephone conversation between President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon (11/25/2001)

Uh, everyone in 2001 knew that Israel had nukes. I'm not sure what a demonstration shot would actually do.

"All of President Bush's Cabinet, VP, and Supreme Court appointments confirmed by the U.S. Senate"- NBC News (11/27/2001)

That is awfully fast. But thankfully like I mentioned early the Under-Secretaries and Deputies will be filling the void. Congress may need to do something more important than force the Court through. Like authorize military action.

If you had told me a year ago that I would be spending Christmas in Afghanistan with the fine men and women of the 133rd Infantry Regiment I would not believe you.

What is an infantry battalion from the Iowa Army National Guard doing in Afghanistan 3 weeks after we've invaded? IOTL we didn't even have conventional troops in the country for a month. Why is there a USO show being put on 3 weeks after invading a country? That sort of thing doesn't happen until operations move into the stability stage of operations. IOTL we didn't have a base established in Afghanistan until 26 Nov 2001, when Camp Rhino was established by the 15th MEU. How the heck did this vehicle get so close in the middle of combat operations? Where did even more uranium come from? I have so many questions about this part.

Don't expect Bush to go completely insane. He will still not to use nuclear weapons.

It wouldn't be to insane at this point. It would be standard deterrence theory. Two nuclear weapons have been used against the United States. By the way you present things it seems like the Taliban and AQ would be retreating like they did IOTL towards remote regions with few civilians. There would be strong domestic pressure to retaliate.


Again, I really like the idea. I like how you've portrayed Bush, and I like a lot of the general feeling. It just needs some polish.
 
I want to be clear, I really like the idea. But there are some holes. I just want to offer these as good faith critiques. Nuclear weapons, continuity of government, and national security stuff is my bugaboo, so it may come across as unfairly harsh, but I'd like to offer them to help you tighten up the plausibility of everything.



Okay, so you have Rumsfeld testifying before Congress on the 11th. That's fair. But Colin Powell is presumably in Foggy Bottom or the White House. Rice and Cheney are presumably also at the White House. As soon as that flash goes the WH is going into lock down and everyone is going to the Situation Room ala 9/11. Even using a larger, Fat Man type device the WH is outside the blast radius for physical damage, especially since it is a hardened building.

And as mentioned else where, there were radio-logical sensors in DC pre-9/11. I don't think that would rule something like this out, I do think it would have to limit the amount of fissionable material in the bomb itself, ie have to be smaller yield. It wouldn't be a high-kiloton warhead, let alone a multi-megaton weapon that could effective destroy all of the DC.

Now tens of thousands will certainly be killed, and the numbers wounded would be enough to overwhelm every single hospital in the Eastern US. So it's certainly still a really big thing. The fires that will be raging out of control will be another problem.



Most of the local affiliates in DC are located well into the north-western portion of the District. CBS is on Wisconsin Ave near Tenleytown, Fox is on the same road up in Friendship Heights, NBC is on Nebraska Ave near the American University campus. They'll all be outside the blast radius, and EMP isn't really a thing for a ground burst. They will likely not have power, but they should have back-up generators on sight.



The President needs Congressional approval to do so. But since there's no Congress or USSC to say no... nice touch!



I can buy the Supreme Court. They would be in session and likely near the blast. I can buy most members of Congress, but not all. Even when the Congress is in session you can half the members out of town for various reasons. It is October, and many may be back in their districts to help with elections at the local level. I notice you have a cabinet member at a committee hearing during the attack, keep in mind that there's rarely more than 2 hearings held a day and they tend to happen at times when there isn't a major vote.

On the Cabinet- when they're not appearing before Congress, or meeting with the President they can be all over the place. They have their offices spread throughout the District of Columbia, and into Northern Virginia and Maryland. Commerce, Justice, Education, the Post Office would all be close to the blast. The FBI and the IRS would be major agencies that would be severely disrupted. Then you have things like the Defense Department, which is across the River with facilities that are specifically in place running the department in the event DC gets nuked. I can look into others if you'd like.

Keep in mind each cabinet department has its own line of succession. To use a current example when John Kelly resigned from DHS over the summer to become WH Chief of Staff a Deputy Secretary began serving as the Acting Secretary. These lines of succession are rooted through the Deputies, and through the Under Secretaries. For example the Defense Department, as of 2010, contains 29 individuals.

If Congress is dead, and so is the Supreme Court it would be more accurate to say that the Executive Branch is the only portion of the Federal Government. There's still dozens of officials who have been appointed by the Advise and Consent of the Senate. Then even with the Judiciary the lower level appeals courts will still be functioning.



This is fine, but it will severely mess with the Invasion of Afghanistan. OTL the Taliban refused to turn over OBL to the US government because they demanded proof that he was connected to the 9/11 attacks. If he's claiming credit the Taliban may move to kick him out of the country as fast as humanly possible. Remember, given the circumstances of the attack all options would be on the tables. Including nuclear retaliation.



Philly is fine, but I don't think all the Federal Departments will need to relocate to the city for now. Remember, each department has plans in case this happen and it's not post-9/11 planning. For example the Defense Department would wind down operations in the NMCC in the Pentagon, which is located safely underground, and relocate after the worse of the radiation has passed.





That's... awfully quick.

Different states are going to have different processes as specified by state law. Many states will allow the appointment of new Senators by the governor, but some states specify that a special election needs to held in X amount of days. I don't think they'd be able to throw a special election together that quickly. In that case you'd have a Senatorial quorum, but not a completely new Senate until at least the new year. Also, some of the Supreme Court, and Cabinet nominations seem anachronistic. Would Ben Carson's name show up on anyone's list at this time?



The Senate list seems even more anachronistic. Sarah Palin was the mayor of a small town in Alaska. Dan Quayle was a national embarrassment to the Republican Party, and also a resident of Arizona by this time. Al Franken didn't exhibit any political inclinations until well into the Bush Administration.



Uh, everyone in 2001 knew that Israel had nukes. I'm not sure what a demonstration shot would actually do.



That is awfully fast. But thankfully like I mentioned early the Under-Secretaries and Deputies will be filling the void. Congress may need to do something more important than force the Court through. Like authorize military action.



What is an infantry battalion from the Iowa Army National Guard doing in Afghanistan 3 weeks after we've invaded? IOTL we didn't even have conventional troops in the country for a month. Why is there a USO show being put on 3 weeks after invading a country? That sort of thing doesn't happen until operations move into the stability stage of operations. IOTL we didn't have a base established in Afghanistan until 26 Nov 2001, when Camp Rhino was established by the 15th MEU. How the heck did this vehicle get so close in the middle of combat operations? Where did even more uranium come from? I have so many questions about this part.



It wouldn't be to insane at this point. It would be standard deterrence theory. Two nuclear weapons have been used against the United States. By the way you present things it seems like the Taliban and AQ would be retreating like they did IOTL towards remote regions with few civilians. There would be strong domestic pressure to retaliate.


Again, I really like the idea. I like how you've portrayed Bush, and I like a lot of the general feeling. It just needs some polish.

I appreciate the feedback. I'm not the greatest expert in how DC would be impacted by a nuclear blast. I will take these into consideration in future posts.
 
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