Greater Ukraine

[Panhomo]

Before ethnic cleansings throughout eastern europe, especially the holodomor; ethnic ukrainians extended considerably past their modern border. With a POD around WW1 could we plausibly have a considerably larger Ukraine, encompassing almost all ethnic Ukrainians or speakers of Ukrainian as a first language?

I don't know much about this region in this period of history, so I'm mostly going off of information from wikipedia. Please correct me if I'm wrong about anything.

Rough Timeline, same as OTL in italics:

1914

One of Austria-Hungary's shells does more damage than OTL thanks to a lucky gust of wind.

1915

Britain sends an officer to Romania to attempt to bring them into the Entente. The officer, Lieutenant-Colonel Christopher Thomson, suspects that Romania will do more good as an officially neutral, entente leaning state, supplying oil and food and forcing the CPs to keep divisions guarding their borders.

The British reluctantly agree with Thomson.

1917

Tsar Nicholas II of Russia abdicates.

CPs appear on the verge of victory in the east. They foresee difficulty occupying the vast expanses of Russia they have seized, and expect to keep for some time.

The German Empire sends a delegate; a noble relative of both king Ferdinand I of Romania and Wilhelm II of Germany, to seek Romanian help. He successfully convinces the Romanians to declare war on Russia for Bessarabia. The Romanians are told that the entente is soon to collapse and won't declare on Romania. Romania is also promised that if they commit forces to other areas of the war, or in exchange for food or oil, they may receive some small Romanian majority parts of Austria-Hungary after the war.

The Entente and CPs both send feelers to minorities in Russia. Various groups in Ukraine attempt to form a legitimate independent government.

1918

Romania declares war on the Russian empire and sends troops to occupy Bessarabia.

The members of the Entente declare war on Romania.

Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, similar to OTL, but with larger Ukraine and Bessarabia to Romania.

CPs capitulate.

The newly formed Ukrainian and Lithuanian governments in particular successfully ingratiate themselves with the Entente. They form liberal, nationalist, capitalist, republics as favoured especially by France and the USA. They promise to assist the capitalist powers in defeating the bolsheviks in Russia.

As the Austro-Hungarian empire is dissolved it becomes clear that parts of Transylvania will end up in Romania one way or the other. The Entente is unhappy to see Romania benefit from the war after being on the 'wrong' side, and also don't want to see both banks of the mouth of the Danube part of one nation, so award all of Bessarabia to Ukraine. Ukraine also largely keeps its western borders as defined in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

Europe of 1922 with changed borders in Red:

In the next few decades Ukraine annexes subcarpathian ruthenia from Czechoslovakia, the Crimean peninsula, and possibly slightly more territory elsewhere.

With roughly double OTL's land area, and no Holodomor, TTL's Ukraine might have a population exceeding 100 million, with many minority groups but ethnic ukrainians probably still the majority.

Belarusian might be considered a separate language by linguists and the Belarusians themselves, but will officially be considered a dialect of Ukrainian by the Ukrainian government, and won't be thought of much at all by outside nations. Similar to how Rusyn is treated today.

TTL's Ukraine might contain the entirety of the Dniepr and Don Watersheds, which will be kind of interesting and might make the Dniepr very similar to Russia's mother Volga

Ukraine will have considerable influence over European trade by control of the Vistula-Dnieper and Volga-Don canals, as well power in the mouth of the Danube, the black sea, and oil and gas trade with the caucasus.

 

[BBadolato]

I don't think they would go for the Crimea, unless they want to have to deal with a very significant Russian minority and possibly a pissed off Russia.

 

[Histor32]

Border is to far north in Belarus
Larger Lithuania is good.. Ukraine north of the Pripyat marshes though.. Not so sure

With Belarus .. In the north it's more Lithuanian or russian .. In the east more russian.. In the west polish.. In the south Ukrainian. But most of the territory comprising today's Belarus is traditionally considered greater Lithuania. So I'm not sure how you would have that much in Ukraine.
As for Belarusian language it is similar to Ukrainian so that part might be as you plan.

You still have to overcome the two hundred years of Russian rule, the years of Lithuanian and polish rule . If you visit Belarus you can find many old polish and Lithuanian estates and castles.

What happens to Latvia in. This scenario? Just absorbed into Russia or Estonia?

Trams carpathia might be possible, though you will have considerable Hungarian influence in the area.

Honestly modern Ukraine is about as big as it gets, bringing back something the size of the kyivian Rus would require a much earlier pod or a lot of forced population movement.

 

[David T]

The simplest way to have the maximum conceivable Ukraine is for Stalin for some reason to take a favorable view of the boundaries of the Ukrainian SSR. In the 1920's, he insists on incorporating the Kuban into it; in 1945, he insists that Poland give it the Lemko region, and also has the Ukrainian/Belorussian border in Polesie somewhat further north than in OTL. In 1954, Ukraine is rounded out through Khrushchev's "gift" of Crimea...

Before dismissing this as impossible, recall that in the 1920's under *korenizatsiya* (which Stalin supported at the time):

"According to the 1926 census, there were already nearly a million Ukrainians registered in the Kuban Okrug alone (or 62% of the total population)[31]

"In addition to that, 700 schools with Ukrainian as the language of instruction were opened, and the Kuban Pedagogical Institute had its own Ukrainian department. Numerous Ukrainian-language newspapers such as Chornomorets and Kubanska Zoria were published. Historian A.L. Pawliczko even claims there was an attempt to have a referendum on the joining of Kuban to the Ukrainian SSR." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuban_Cossacks

 

[thezerech]

I see something similar to establish Soborna Ukraina, I do want to write a TL. I think the best way is for Russia to do worse, and the Central Rada to be overthrown as early as possible by Skoropadsky/Vasyl von Habsburg. Vasyl is so popular among the peasantry that they can keep support away from Petliura. This would allow for a very strong military, according to Subtleny's estimates around 300,000-350,000 troops on the Eastern side alone. The Central Rada disbanded them all so when the Russians invaded they only had 15,000. The "problem" is with Vasyl as King/Hetman the Sich Rifles and other K.u.K Ukrainian units will be fighting in the east, unlike OTL where they were in L'viv. Meaning the Poles will likely be the first ones to capture L'viv early on. However I am confident this strengthened Ukraine could easily wrest L'viv from the Poles.

 

[Hammurabi]

How do you prevent the Bolsheviks from defeating and annexing the Ukraine, as they did in our timeline?

 

[Halagaz]

I see something similar to establish Soborna Ukraina, I do want to write a TL. I think the best way is for Russia to do worse, and the Central Rada to be overthrown as early as possible by Skoropadsky/Vasyl von Habsburg. Vasyl is so popular among the peasantry that they can keep support away from Petliura. This would allow for a very strong military, according to Subtleny's estimates around 300,000-350,000 troops on the Eastern side alone. The Central Rada disbanded them all so when the Russians invaded they only had 15,000. The "problem" is with Vasyl as King/Hetman the Sich Rifles and other K.u.K Ukrainian units will be fighting in the east, unlike OTL where they were in L'viv. Meaning the Poles will likely be the first ones to capture L'viv early on. However I am confident this strengthened Ukraine could easily wrest L'viv from the Poles.

Interesting idea. But there would have been another big problem - the Ukrainian peasantry hated Skoropadsky and the German/Austrian troops. And with good reason, too.
Regardless of how popular Archduke Vasyl might have been, he can hardly hope to replace Petliura if these are his pillars and allies. Or to accomplish much of anything, really. If Vasyl could come to power and rule without them, it's a different story; but it's hard to imagine how he would find himself in that position...

 

[sahaidak]

How do you prevent the Bolsheviks from defeating and annexing the Ukraine, as they did in our timeline?

Well, the Poles, the Finns, and even the Estonians did it in OTL - because Soviet Russia was actually quite weak during the Civil War, and it almost always retreated when it met a well-organized army on that army's home ground. It's just that Ukraine was even weaker, because most Ukrainians (that is, peasants) wanted true freedom as they understood it - no taxation, no military draft, no police. Ukrainian peasantry was almost self-sufficient in the 1910s, they felt they had no need for the urban elites and their state, regardless of that state's ethnic color.

I see something similar to establish Soborna Ukraina, I do want to write a TL. I think the best way is for Russia to do worse, and the Central Rada to be overthrown as early as possible by Skoropadsky/Vasyl von Habsburg. Vasyl is so popular among the peasantry that they can keep support away from Petliura. This would allow for a very strong military, according to Subtleny's estimates around 300,000-350,000 troops on the Eastern side alone. The Central Rada disbanded them all so when the Russians invaded they only had 15,000. The "problem" is with Vasyl as King/Hetman the Sich Rifles and other K.u.K Ukrainian units will be fighting in the east, unlike OTL where they were in L'viv. Meaning the Poles will likely be the first ones to capture L'viv early on. However I am confident this strengthened Ukraine could easily wrest L'viv from the Poles.

Interesting idea. But there would have been another big problem - the Ukrainian peasantry hated Skoropadsky and the German/Austrian troops. And with good reason, too.
Regardless of how popular Archduke Vasyl might have been, he can hardly hope to replace Petliura if these are his pillars and allies. Or to accomplish much of anything, really. If Vasyl could come to power and rule without them, it's a different story; but it's hard to imagine how he would find himself in that position...

No statesman could hope to get sustained majority support in Ukraine in 1918-20, because most Ukrainians wanted to have no statesmen ruling them at all. Also, Vasyl Habsburg would likely support Ukrainian nobles trying to restore their power just like Skoropadsky did, and he would face just as much peasant resistance as a result.

 

[thezerech]

Interesting idea. But there would have been another big problem - the Ukrainian peasantry hated Skoropadsky and the German/Austrian troops. And with good reason, too.
Regardless of how popular Archduke Vasyl might have been, he can hardly hope to replace Petliura if these are his pillars and allies. Or to accomplish much of anything, really. If Vasyl could come to power and rule without them, it's a different story; but it's hard to imagine how he would find himself in that position...

In early 1917, when I proposed the "coup" to take place, the Ukrainian peasantry had little expierience with the Germans or Skoropadsky. Vasyl was called "the Red Prince" for a reason, he can rally the peasants better than anyone else in Ukraine at this time. He can also reign in the CP troops in Ukraine before they end up with such a bad reputation. The reason they got one in the first place was because there was little/no beurocracy left to collect food, and so they had to get it forcefully. Skoropadky OTL very quickly managed to set up a functional government. If he delivers Kyiv to Vasyl it wouldn't surprise me to see Vasyl and Skoropadsky do the same feat but this time much earlier and with more German and Austrian support.

 

[sahaidak]

In early 1917, when I proposed the "coup" to take place, the Ukrainian peasantry had little expierience with the Germans or Skoropadsky.

You probably meant 1918, not 1917, didn't you?

Skoropadky OTL very quickly managed to set up a functional government. If he delivers Kyiv to Vasyl it wouldn't surprise me to see Vasyl and Skoropadsky do the same feat but this time much earlier and with more German and Austrian support.

Skoropadsky was hated by most Ukrainians, and not only due to German/Austrian exactions and reprisals, but also because most people did not want to have a functional government. Any functional government needs taxes, but in Ukraine of 1918-20, people killed tax collectors on sight.

 

[Halagaz]

Skoropadsky was hated by most Ukrainians, and not only due to German/Austrian exactions and reprisals, but also because most people did not want to have a functional government. Any functional government needs taxes, but in Ukraine of 1918-20, people killed tax collectors on sight.

I was under the impression that Skoropadsky was hated (largely) not for functional government, but because of the specific kind of governance he practiced: a reactionary affair trying to bring back Empire-era land relations and restore the landlord's estates through German and Austrian bayonets. The massive abuses and massacres committed by Central Powers troops (and sometimes Hetmanate's own) couldn't have been helping matters. Nor the shades of Russian chauvinism in Skoropadsky's administration.

 

[sahaidak]

I was under the impression that Skoropadsky was hated (largely) not for functional government, but because of the specific kind of governance he practiced: a reactionary affair trying to bring back Empire-era land relations and restore the landlord's estates through German and Austrian bayonets. The massive abuses and massacres committed by Central Powers troops (and sometimes Hetmanate's own) couldn't have been helping matters. Nor the shades of Russian chauvinism in Skoropadsky's administration.

Oh, most people were indifferent about the idea of government, they just didn't want to pay anything to maintain that government (or its German/Austrian allies). You are obviously right that Skoropadsky's reactionary agrarian policies were an even greater problem than taxation, but even if he continued moderately left-wing policies of the Central Rada, he would still need to somehow get his government funded and his cities fed. Following the end of the Hetmanate, the restored Ukrainian People's Republic, led by socialists like Petliura and Vynnychenko,tried to solve this issue by printing money, but its money ended up worthless as a result. The pre-revolutionary Tsarist government maintained itself largely through indirect taxes (especially on vodka) and import tariffs on consumer goods, but Civil War-era governments tried to rule countries where most households made their own moonshine and import trade was almost dead, as was domestic trade between the city and the countryside. Therefore, the only way to get the government funded again was to impose direct taxes, which the Bolsheviks managed to do (starving and shooting a few million people in the process), while all Ukrainian politicians failed to even move in that direction.

 

[thezerech]

Here is how I imagine the basic TL. [X]=under consideration
1917

• Skoropadsky forces the Rada to declare an independent Ukrainian state with Vasyl as King/Hetman
• Skoropadsky and Vasyl try to organize the Armed Forces, includes as OTL Black sea fleet, but also ITTL Army, OTL 300,000 troops were dismissed by the rada ITTL they accept as many as they can

1918

• OTL Skoropadsky managed to form a functioning gov't in his short time in office, ITTL with even more time, he and Vasyl organize a stronger military ~300,000 strong, plus the Black Sea fleet
• [Soviet's invade as OTL, get beaten badly by much larger Ukrainian forces. Bolshevik uprisings are crushed.]
• [Ukraine and the Soviets sign peace]
• King Vasyl and "Marshal" Skoropadsky send a few divisions to the Kuban peninsula joining with the Kuban People's Republic
• The Central Powers collapse as OTL
• Polish forces quickly take over L'viv
• Ukraine declares war on Poland
• Ukrainians forces move to surround L'viv

1919

• Ukrainians manage to take L'viv, in Chortikiv' offensive (named so due to HQ of Ukrainian Army being based in the town of Chortkiv')
• Rumania seizes Besserabia and Bukovnya

1920

• Ukraine and Poland are still fighting when the Soviet Union launches an offensive into Ukraine and Belarus
• King Vasyl personally commands defense of Kyiv manages to stop Soviet offensive
• [Ukraine fights a war on two fronts until the League of Nations pressures Ukraine and Poland to sign a ceasefire to fight the Bolsheviks]
• Ukraine and Poland launch offensive in Belarus, Ukrainians take Minsk reestablishes Belarussian People's Republic [Or annexes south Belarus' and partitions Belarus with Lithuania]

1921

• Ukrainian Polish ceasefire breaks down, Ukraine signs peace with Soviet Union after taking Kursk surrounding Orel (remember Ukraine's much larger ITTL military and German-Austrian aid)
• Ukrainian Polish War resumes, Poles launch offensive in Belarus and Galicia. Poles almost retake L'viv, Ukrainians launch counter offensive in Volyn' threaten to cut off Poles in Belarus'
• White Army forces are on the run
• Ukrainian forces push the Poles back from L'viv
• LoN moderates peace, Ukraine keeps L'viv while Poland remains with Peremyshyl

 

[thezerech]

I was under the impression that Skoropadsky was hated (largely) not for functional government, but because of the specific kind of governance he practiced: a reactionary affair trying to bring back Empire-era land relations and restore the landlord's estates through German and Austrian bayonets. The massive abuses and massacres committed by Central Powers troops (and sometimes Hetmanate's own) couldn't have been helping matters. Nor the shades of Russian chauvinism in Skoropadsky's administration.

Yes, but with Vasyl von Habsburg in charge they don't need to resort to those tactics, beacuse the situation is much less chaotic, not to mention he won't try to give Landlords back their land or at least not even close to the scale that Skorpadsky did, there is a reason he's known as the "Red Prince".

 

[sahaidak]

Yes, but with Vasyl von Habsburg in charge they don't need to resort to those tactics, beacuse the situation is much less chaotic, not to mention he won't try to give Landlords back their land or at least not even close to the scale that Skorpadsky did, there is a reason he's known as the "Red Prince".

The Central Powers needed Ukrainian grain. How would King Vasyl persuade Ukrainian peasants to sell grain to the state, given that the state had nothing to offer in exchange apart from new paper money?

 

[thezerech]

The Central Powers needed Ukrainian grain. How would King Vasyl persuade Ukrainian peasants to sell grain to the state, given that the state had nothing to offer in exchange apart from new paper money?

Money from the Central Powers, new Ukrainian currency backed by gold, gold from the CP or gold from old Russian banks/landlords who supported the Whites. I never said everything would go perfectly, but it wouldn't be even close to as bad as OTL.

 

[KACKO]

Money from the Central Powers, new Ukrainian currency backed by gold, gold from the CP or gold from old Russian banks/landlords who supported the Whites. I never said everything would go perfectly, but it wouldn't be even close to as bad as OTL.

Russian gold was in Siberia. For a while in hands of Czechoslovak legions.

 

[thezerech]

Russian gold was in Siberia. For a while in hands of Czechoslovak legions.

The Ukrainian State had currency, I don't see it going fiat, I imagine that Vasyl will get the CP to give some money, ostensibly so he can reform an Army/Navy allowing them to bring their troops back to the Western Front. He'd use that gold to pay for as much wheat as possible, I'm not saying I'd be perfect, but that'd it be better than OTL. I'm sure he could take a loan from Austria or Germany. A-H should be easy to squeeze money out of, considering he's a Habsburg himself.

EDIT: I'm not saying the peasents wouldn't be pressured to sell their wheat. It would likely be similar to what happened during the American war of independence, essentially giving them IOU notes, they wouldn't be happy but it was better than the Germans showing up and machine gunning anyone who wouldn't hand them food.

 

[sahaidak]

The Ukrainian State had currency, I don't see it going fiat, I imagine that Vasyl will get the CP to give some money[...]

EDIT: I'm not saying the peasents wouldn't be pressured to sell their wheat. It would likely be similar to what happened during the American war of independence, essentially giving them IOU notes, they wouldn't be happy but it was better than the Germans showing up and machine gunning anyone who wouldn't hand them food.

All Central Powers had fiat currencies since 1914, so why would they lend some of their fairly limited gold reserves to Ukraine to allow it to have a gold-backed currency? Yes, it could have been done, since Ukraine's gold requirements were fairly low and probably could have been covered with German gold even as late as 1918, but why would the Germans do so, when they were confident they could obtain grain from Ukraine at gunpoint?

Paying people with paper money (including IOU notes) is what was done OTL by Ukrainian governments and White Russians, and it failed because people did not trust fiat money (well, they trusted Russian Imperial fiat money in 1914-16, but hyperinflation was already setting in by mid-1917 as a result of unlimited money printing, so people increasingly stopped accepting fiat money at face value, and then (by early 1919 or so) they stopped accepting it altogether, forcing the Ukrainian armies to take food at gunpoint or barter it for the armies' dwindling stocks of salt, lamp oil etc.). During the American Revolution, people accepted paper dollars either because they were afraid of soldiers taking food anyway (if they were Loyalists at heart), or because they hoped that the Continental Army would win and paper money would be converted to gold (if the farmers in question were Patriots). However, Civil War-era Ukrainian peasants were not that afraid of Ukrainian soldiers (after all, local peasant militias were more numerous than government troops, and just as well-armed), and they did not think that a Ukrainian state would some day repay them in gold.

 

[thezerech]

All Central Powers had fiat currencies since 1914, so why would they lend some of their fairly limited gold reserves to Ukraine to allow it to have a gold-backed currency? Yes, it could have been done, since Ukraine's gold requirements were fairly low and probably could have been covered with German gold even as late as 1918, but why would the Germans do so, when they were confident they could obtain grain from Ukraine at gunpoint?

Paying people with paper money (including IOU notes) is what was done OTL by Ukrainian governments and White Russians, and it failed because people did not trust fiat money (well, they trusted Russian Imperial fiat money in 1914-16, but hyperinflation was already setting in by mid-1917 as a result of unlimited money printing, so people increasingly stopped accepting fiat money at face value, and then (by early 1919 or so) they stopped accepting it altogether, forcing the Ukrainian armies to take food at gunpoint or barter it for the armies' dwindling stocks of salt, lamp oil etc.). During the American Revolution, people accepted paper dollars either because they were afraid of soldiers taking food anyway (if they were Loyalists at heart), or because they hoped that the Continental Army would win and paper money would be converted to gold (if the farmers in question were Patriots). However, Civil War-era Ukrainian peasants were not that afraid of Ukrainian soldiers (after all, local peasant militias were more numerous than government troops, and just as well-armed), and they did not think that a Ukrainian state would some day repay them in gold.

Ukraine only needs to be able to supply the CP with grain for about a year. While Vasyl was in control of parts of Central/South Ukraine he still supplied the Germans with grain, but he returned grain that had been stolen. Clearly it was possible. Of course the Germans weren't happy, but at that point it is already to late, as they've withdrawn the majority of their forces to the Western Front. I could see Austria loaning Ukraine the money, or perhaps a neutral pro CP nation, like Sweden through a deal with Germany. With no Central Rada the Ukrainian troops would out number German and Austrian troops in Ukraine, assuming Ukraine could organize all the former Russian troops that swore loyalty OTL, some 300,000-350,000 including Skoropadsky's 50,000 troops. Peasents would be encouraged to sell their grain.

EDIT: I'm not suggesting the peasents will go along with everything, but I think things could have or would have gone alot better, espeically considering the chaos of the Central Rada is averted by Skoropadsky's and Vasyl von Habsburgs coup.