France with Prussia... could possibly win. I don't believe Austria is really a concern, as frankly they were on they way out ever since the WotAS and coasted on inertia and greater powers (mainly Britain and to an extent either Russia or France) abstaining from going for the kill- with a Napoleonic-Prussia alliance, and bavaria in the alliance too, there's zero reason not to just break up the A-H Empire, give all the German bits to Bavaria, Bohemia to Saxony, and leave a rump of Hungary to stew in the Balkans.
 
France with Prussia... could possibly win. I don't believe Austria is really a concern, as frankly they were on they way out ever since the WotAS and coasted on inertia and greater powers (mainly Britain and to an extent either Russia or France) abstaining from going for the kill- with a Napoleonic-Prussia alliance, and bavaria in the alliance too, there's zero reason not to just break up the A-H Empire, give all the German bits to Bavaria, Bohemia to Saxony, and leave a rump of Hungary to stew in the Balkans.
In the next post I was actually going to mention Bohemia was made a separate kingdom, with Jerome Bonaparte as ruler. I thought Jerry deserved a kingdom to bankrupt.
 
Well Prussia with WEST Galicia mean a bunch of poles. That make something like 2/3 of germans and 1/3 of poles for Prussia population ? In the long that could mean a "Prussia-Poland" kingdom "à la" Austria-Hungary like ittl. Because it has been proved that germanize the poles wasn't a success ittl unless ... they do this in a different way (like speak german to get a social elevator , be part of the "great future" of the state etc etc).

By the way , Prussia might look like this :

 
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Prussia with as much of Poland as they had pre-Napoleon would indeed have a shot at evolving more like Austria Hungary.
As Prussia won't gain the Rhineland ITTL, Poland could turn out to be the industrial heartland of Prussia-Poland. I'm planning on having Poland being granted some degree of semi-autonomy as per Radziwiłł's plan (Polish could even have equal status as German).
 
So in that case we can see a greater germanization of the polish area (i thinks of the urban areas for exemple) . We can even see ,if things goes well, the german and the polish seeing themselves as prussians above their langage and cultural heritage.
 
IV - Ottoman Events: 1805-1809
The Ottoman Coups of 1807 and 1808

The once-mighty Ottoman Empire was in an evident state of decline by the early 19th century. Yet there were those in positions of power in the empire who hoped to end this downward spiral. Chief among them was the Sultan himself, Selim III. An accomplished composer as well as a ruler, Selim was dedicated to reforming the crumbling empire. There was plenty of opposition to this, especially among the Janissaries, the Ottoman elite troops. As Selim enacted his reforms, the Janissaries became more and more angered.

The breaking point came when the Sultan ordered the levying new regular troops, who would be trained using Western methods and loyal to him. The Janissaries and some of the conservative elements of the empire reacted by killing many of Selim’s major allies in reform. In March 1807, the Janissaries deposed Selim and replaced with his cousin, crowned Mustafa IV. Selim would imprisoned in the luxurious Ottoman palace. He would be joined by Mustafa’s own brother Mahmud. Mustafa IV pardoned the rebels and became effectively a puppet of the Janissaries.

Selim’s allies however, would not be discouraged. The powerful governor of Ruscuk, Alemdar Mustafa Pasha, gathered an army of about 15,000 the following year; they then marched for Constantinople. Reaching the city by nightfall, The rebel troops completely surrounded the palace – within its walls, the Sultan who had ascended the throne in a bloody uprising now saw the roles reversed. Panicking, he ordered both Selim and Mahmud executed. The soldiers frantically searched the palace to find the two men before the assembled troops outside burst in. They found Mahmud attempting to leap from a window to safety. They grabbed him, but Mahmud managed to kill two of his attackers with a concealed blade. He was eventually overpowered and stabbed to death as more men came in to the room.

In another part of the palace, the former Sultan found help in an unexpected place. A young Georgian slave girl, hearing the approaching soldiers, alerted Selim and led him to the chambers of Mahmud’s mother, who successfully hid him. Outside, the rebels were engaged in a tense standoff with the palace troops. Hoping to break the rebels’ morale, Mahmud’s corpse was cast down to the rebels amid the jeers of the troops. Mustafa Pasha was horrified at the sight of the heir to the Ottoman throne dead, but immediately realized that they had not shown the body of Selim. As the Sultan they were hoping to restore, surely his enemies would exhibit his body, rather than that of his heir. Turning to his soldiers, he shouted “The Sultan yet lives, we shall assault the palace!”

With this, they stormed the palace. Mustafa’s troops put up a brief resistance, but found themselves heavily outnumbered. Mustafa retreated to his chambers, where he committed suicide by swallowing poison (ironically, Selim had attempted to do the same when he was deposed, only stopped by Mustafa). Mustafa Pasha’s troops secured the palace by morning, where they found Selim calmly playing a reed flute. After a year of imprisonment, Selim III once again reigned as the Ottoman sultan.

Yet the death of Mahmud had created a crisis. At 47, it seemed unlikely Selim would sire an heir, and there was no other direct descendant to take the throne. Any future sultan would have to come from outside the House of Osman. Selim discounted the House of Giray, as he suspected them of having conservative sympathies. Alemdar Mustafa Pasha, now raised to Grand Vizier and resuming Selim’s reforms, was the obvious candidate. The Sultan requested he become the heir to the throne, but the Grand Vizier refused. Selim was forced to almost order him, impressing upon him the dire need for a Sultan who would lead the empire on a path of reform and ending the centuries of decay. Mustafa Pasha having accepted, a marriage was negotiated between him and the Sultan’s widowed cousin, Esma Sultan. The House of Osman-Alemdar had been born, and the marriage would prove fruitful when she gave birth to a son, named Bayezid, in 1809.
 
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I do see a Giray+Conservative+Reactionary backed mega revolt against the new Sultans, though the Osman-Alemdars might manage to survive without much threat from there somehow.
 
V - Russian Events: 1811-1826
The Russian Revolution of 1825

In Russia, Tsar Alexander I had made several reforms of the society and politics of the empire. Count Mikhail M. Speransky was made Governor of Siberia in 1818, where he set about reforming the local government of the Russian hinterlands. That same year, Alexander made the much larger move of asking Count Nikolay N. Novosiltsev to draft a constitution based on moderate principles.

In light of these events, it is odd indeed that the Tsar would so quickly become an adversary of reforming the Russian state. The most likely cause seems to be his belief that recent unrest stemmed from his liberalizing programs. Alexander ended the reform efforts, joining Francis I of Austria as a staunch advocate of preserving the old order of Europe. Novosiltsev’s constitution, moderate though it was, was never acted upon.

Just as the Tsar’s reform efforts increased his popularity among the military, his sudden conservative stance made many soldiers look on him with disfavor. In 1817, several officers had formed the Union of Salvation, a secret society that intended for Russia to transition to a constitutional monarchy, and for serfdom to be abolished. Several more radical men, who wanted to see the monarchy overthrown and replaced with a republic, flirted with the organization, but were soon disgruntled and left [1]. As Russia become a more conservative nation, the society gained more and more members.

In 1821, Grand Duke Constantine was removed from the line of succession at his request, with his brother Nicholas becoming heir to the throne. Alexander created a secret document, not even known to his brothers, making Nicholas heir presumptive. Only he, the Archbishop of Moscow, and a few high-ranking Russian statesman knew of its existence. Unfortunately, it would be this secrecy that would create myriad troubles for Russian in a few years.

On 20 November 1825, Alexander died while on a visit to southern Ukraine. In Saint Petersburg, the royal guards swore their allegiance to Constantine. Ignorant of the secret arrangements, Nicholas himself swore his allegiance to his older brother. The supposed heir upset all this when he made his renunciation of the throne public. The three brothers of the late Tsar were in Moscow at the time, but Nicholas and his younger brother Grand Duke Michael gathered a regiment of cavalry troops and rode for the capital. There was confusion and a degree of chaos in Saint Petersburg, and the Decembrists sprang into action. Declaring that Nicholas was coming to take the throne from Constantine, the true Tsar, they had to secure the capital and prevent the usurper’s accession.

The Decembrists at Saint Petersburg had about 4,500 troops; they assembled in Saint Petersburg’s Senate Square and proclaimed their support for Constantine and the Decembrist Constitution. About 5,000 loyalist troops soon surrounded their position, and a standoff ensued. Nicholas arrived, and ordered all loyal Russian troops to prepare for battle. In the early morning hours, he and a force of cavalry charged the rebel defenses. It might have been a success, had a nervous artillery officer not been alerted by the sound of hoof beats and ordered his men to load their guns with canister. The horses drew closer, and the order to fire was given. The effect on the surprise attack was immediate. Men and horses went down, including the celebrated war hero Miloradovich, and the order to retreat soon sounded. Noticing the Tsar (at least to him and his men) slumping in the saddle, Pyotr Tolstoy took the horse’s reins and led him to safety.

Nicholas had taken several slugs to the chest, and his chances of survival were not good. With his wife, Marie Caroline of Austria, Michael, and several Russian officers at his side, the Tsar died. He had reigned for barely two and a half weeks. He had no children, as his wife suffered from seizures and was frequently ill. Constantine and Nicholas had engaged in a race to renounce the throne on the death of Alexander, but now only Michael was left to become the Tsar.

From Moscow, Constantine denounced the rebels for their murder of the Tsar. The Decembrists now saw fortunes turn decidedly against them. Whether a man supported Constantine or Nicholas, the Decembrists were an enemy. The troops massed against them now numbered 19,000 under the command of Mikhail S. Vorontsov. Realizing the hopelessness of the situation, the Decembrists’ leader Prince Sergei Trubetskoy rode out under a flag of truce to request a surrender. The new Tsar rode out to accept it personally.

The revolt thus ended, the matter of sentencing the Decembrists fell to Michael. He decided that executing the leaders could result in further resistance. Over the objections of his ministers, he decided to exile the leaders to Siberia, and the rebellious soldiers would be pardoned.

Michael had never expected to become the ruler of Russia, but he now took steps that would make him as important to the history of modern Russia as Peter I or Catherine II. At heart, he was a moderate with conservative tendencies, but he had fears (real or imagined) that if he did not make reforms, he could have to deal with another crisis like the one that had killed his brother. In 1826, he instituted a constitution for Russia. Not the Decembrist one drafted by Muraviev, but the one proposed by Novosiltsev. Russia had become a constitutional monarchy.

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[1] Rather than the UoS splitting into the more moderate Northern Society and more radical Southern Society, the UoS remains one, moderate body. As such, Pavel Pestel and his confederates are left isolated.
 
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I'm so glad to see this TL has found a few subscribers - it was much more than I expected! As I said at the beginning, this is very much a bare-bones affair. That said, I'm experimenting with adding some pictures, but please allow for my shameful lack of tech skills.

I have some vague ideas for where I'd like this to go, but I'm open to suggestions.
 
VI - Ottoman Events: 1809-1828
The War of the Ottoman Succession

The first few years after the restoration of Selim III were tense ones, as the threat the Janissaries posed remained. Problems continued to fester as the Sultan continued to build a new army and made a reformer his heir. It was almost unsurprising when a rowdy faction of the Janissaries mutinied in Constantinople in 1815. Mustafa advocated beginning a full-blown war of destruction against the entire corps, but Selim preferred taking more limited measures. The Ottoman army limited themselves to the troops currently in revolt, and the unpleasant matter was quickly snuffed out.

The trouble the Janissary corps had caused did require decisive action, and Selim did carry this out. He did all he could to remove the influence they held in Constantinople, ordering the Janissary barracks moved to Ankara. While measures such as these could only go so far, they were moderately successful. The Janissaries mostly stewed in Anatolia, but they were not idle. They formed alliances with many anti-reform elements in the Empire, especially the Girays and the various conservative forces. As Selim’s health gradually worsened, they began plans for another uprising.

On 17 June 1827, Selim III died in Constantinople. His heir was crowned Sultan Mustafa V, and his enemies sprang into action. Declaring Mustafa illegitimate, they held a coronation in Ankara for their Giray candidate [1], and readied their forces. The Ottoman government was caught unawares. Most of the army was currently engaged in the Balkans, and would require time they did not have to move them. Using a combination of Janissaries and local soldiers, they cut a wide path from Anatolia to the Mediterranean, capturing the port of Izmir. The situation was bleak for Mustafa V, but aid soon came from an unlikely place.

Russia, anxious to flex her muscles after the French Imperial Wars, had watched the ongoing revolts in the Balkans with keen interest. The young State Duma was filled with voices calling for Russia to aid these struggling Slavs. In Greece, the fight was going against the revolutionaries, as the new Ottoman armies proved their worth. After being stamped out, the Serbians were again in revolt as the famed leader Karađorđe had returned to lead another uprising. There was even talk of replacing the Ottoman sultan with a renewed Byzantine Empire ruled by a Romanov. While the Ottoman Empire was in turmoil, they said, now was the perfect time to accomplish all these goals.

These ambitions would have to be reined in by Russia’s ally, Britain. A powerful Russia, with a collection of Balkan allies coupled with a weak Ottoman state would not do, especially if France allied with them (a fear that proved to be unfounded, but was real in the minds of British diplomats). Something would have to be done with the Ottoman crisis, and Britain, along with Russia, France, Austria, and Prussia prepared their response. The five powers hurriedly prepared the London Pact, which offered Mustafa V military support in exchange for a conference to settle the status of the Balkan nations. With Janissary troops marching for Constantinople and Ottoman troops only just beginning a proper defense, the beleaguered sultan had little choice but to accept.

An expeditionary force, composed of soldiers of all five nations, sailed through the Dardanelles bound for Constantinople. The defenders were relieved at the sight of aid, bursting into cheers as the ships began unloading their men. Despite the two forces fighting separately, they managed to force the Janissaries back from Constantinople, while a secondary force took Izmir. As fortunes turned suddenly and starkly against the conservatives, their alliance began to crumble. The revolt had been carried along by its own momentum and glued together with the Janissaries’ enthusiasm. As the latter evaporated, the Ottoman-European coalition scored an unbroken string of victories. The revolt ended where it began, as the Janissary barracks in Ankara was nearly demolished by artillery and the forces within surrendered.

Mustafa was swift and brutal in vengeance. The Janissary leaders were executed, and hundreds exiled. With the revolt ended, the Conference of London began in March 1828. Mustafa was unable to make the journey, as the 62-year-old sultan was ill. In his place, the 18-year-old Şehzade Bayezid made the journey. He had inherited his mother’s liking for European culture, and enthusiastically took part in the balls and dinners associated with the Conference. Europe also began to like the handsome, intelligent Ottoman prince. Bayezid also displayed his knowledge of politics and diplomacy, learned from his cousin Selim III and his father.

Bayezid knew quite well that he could not hope to retain as much of the Balkans as he would like. Yet that did not mean he would allow the Empire to be ripped apart by the European powers. As the Balkan fronts were stripped of troops to combat the Janissary rebels, the Balkan rebels had attacked with renewed vigor. In Greece and Serbia Ottoman troops had to withdraw, albeit gradually. New revolts had even begun, as Wallachia erupted into revolution. Bayezid had to tread a tightrope, trying to cut his losses without being himself cut apart.

After no small amount of arguing, the following terms were reached:
- Greece was to become a fully independent kingdom.
- Serbia, with approximately the borders of 1813, was to become a fully independent kingdom.
- Wallachia and Moldavia were to become a fully independent Romania kingdom.
- Bayezid agreed to an independent Wallachia in exchange for a pact not allowing Russia, Greece, Serbia, or the United Kingdom of Romania to wage war against the Ottoman Empire for 20 years, as well as not giving vassal status to the Bulgarians.

It was felt by many in the Empire that Bayezid had allowed the Balkans to be practically surrendered, which to some extent was true. That said, it must be pointed out that the Ottoman delegation could hardly be said to be negotiating from a position of strength. Only the promise of a Balkan conference had kept the Russians back from taking Constantinople, and only Britain and France’s interest in the eastern balance of power had led them to promise the former at all. It is therefore surprising that the Ottomans did not lose more in the final treaty than they did.

In 1829, the prince Europe had been enamored with became Bayezid III. He ruled an empire that was in serious danger of losing what power it still had. He was armed with two things: an alliance with the French (he had met the 60-year-old Napoleon I, who he admired, in Paris after the conference), and a far-reaching reform plan. Whether they could save the Empire from sliding into disaster, it was difficult to say.

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[1] I admit this update seems rushed (because it is), but unfortunately proper details on the early-19th century Ottomans are hard to come by. If anyone happens to know who the heads of the House of Giray were in the 19th-century, it would be greatly appreciated.
 
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If the Ottomans are smart they do the same thing as Russia did, they set up European dynastic laws, intermarry with insignificant but prestigious European dynasties and try to integrate their empire into Europe.
 
If the Ottomans are smart they do the same thing as Russia did, they set up European dynastic laws, intermarry with insignificant but prestigious European dynasties and try to integrate their empire into Europe.
Bayezid's got plans (think Tanzimat), and with the power of the conservatives broken for good, the Porte has his back. His main problem seems likely to come from the limitations of Ottoman industry. But, as I said, he's got plans.
 
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