Yeah I think it was because of Ukraine even though the Germans know have Ukraine do their victory in the east
Are there no fanatics like the Hitler youth or the old men like in WW2?
Germany fights to the bitter end in ww1, no ww2?
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By Nov 1918 the Germans had major problems,
The blockade was biting hard.
Infrastructure was collapsing, rail track and rolling stock for example were plain worn out. Getting things to the front and worse ,food from farm to city, was becoming increasingly difficult.
Lack of horses/petrol was becoming acute, only the widespread use of oxen on farms had stopped a disaster.
Morale was poor with both right and left groups causing increasing disorder.
Supplies of war material were very low.
So taking that forward into 1919 and the chances are ( possibly large ) bits of Germany are in civil strife even before the Entente Offensive. If the offensive was in the planned strength then once the penetration was made , Germany had very little chance of slowing it down and many troops would end up encircled as they could not retreat fast enough.
So all fighting on, past the point, as far as the Entente would be concerned, of military purpose would do, is make the terms final harsher. I'd expect the Saar to be ceded to France, more demilitarisation/deprussianisation and attempts to break Germany up ( possibly North/South with a bigger Poland)
The blockade was biting hard.
Infrastructure was collapsing, rail track and rolling stock for example were plain worn out. Getting things to the front and worse ,food from farm to city, was becoming increasingly difficult.
Lack of horses/petrol was becoming acute, only the widespread use of oxen on farms had stopped a disaster.
Morale was poor with both right and left groups causing increasing disorder.
Supplies of war material were very low.
So taking that forward into 1919 and the chances are ( possibly large ) bits of Germany are in civil strife even before the Entente Offensive. If the offensive was in the planned strength then once the penetration was made , Germany had very little chance of slowing it down and many troops would end up encircled as they could not retreat fast enough.
So all fighting on, past the point, as far as the Entente would be concerned, of military purpose would do, is make the terms final harsher. I'd expect the Saar to be ceded to France, more demilitarisation/deprussianisation and attempts to break Germany up ( possibly North/South with a bigger Poland)
There probably were, but IMHO without an organization such as the Nazi party essentially having access to much of the resources and authority of the state being able to recruit (or if necessary forcibly conscript ?), arm and organize armed forces for a last ditch resistance campaign without involving the Wehrmacht (sp ?) seems unlikely to me.
My understanding is that the Nazis in WW2 also carried out approximately several orders of magnitude (sorry I am not motivated enough to look up the exact figures so apologies in advance if I have gotten the numbers wrong) more death sentences upon members of their armed forces than the Germans did in WW1, which also might factor into the respective abilities of those two regimes to sustain a last ditch resistance campaign.
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And even if the Western Front held, the collapse of Bulgaria left Austria's southern frontier wide open. And the collapse of A/H would in turn expose Germany's south-eastern borders, creating a whole new front which she could not possibly man. They couldn't possibly have gone on more then a few more weeks.
If Germany via some PODs does a little better in 1918 and survives that year. A 1919 Allied offensive would have massive superiority in tanks, both heavy and light, major air superiority, and probably a strategic element bringing the war direct to Germany's western cities. Certainly the stab in the back is a much harder sell. Plus having large armies in the field by then means this is really an American victory and every one knows it. And America will be able to largely dictate the kind and terms of peace, so it's a whole different look and feel vs OTL.
So in this TL, the west front is holding.
But the Italian front and Salonika and Palestine fronts all collapse like OTL.
Assuming there is no naval death ride of the German navy planned and no revolution.
Germany could occupy the Brenner pass easy enough with minimal forces (they were going to do this OTL before the revolution got in the way), I could also see maybe occupying Salzburg to secure the Danube valley. I honestly think the Italians and South Slavs are going to so eager to lock down gains against each other that neither are going to waste effort against the Germans. The handful of Allied divisions are not enough at that point, especially considering the weather, German forces dribbling back from the east will be used to watch the Poles. Germans will try to prop up politically South Slavs and Ukrainians against the Italians and Poles. It is a long way from Salonika for Allied forces who will be content putting things in order, setting up the Danube for supply etc...
Winter is setting in and I honestly think it will be April 1919 before the Allies resume a major offensive in the south, the Allies consolidating their gains, and then the 1919 victory on all fronts will be crushing of course.
Smart Germany would use the time to negotiate minimally better armistice conditions or what a final peace might look like (i.e. what areas are going to be subject to "self determination" plebiscites and what will the elections be like and who is eligible to vote. What will reparations be like and how much.
Perhaps a potential POD for something like this is that the 1916 Hindenburg Economic program is just not done in this TL, which was probably counterproductive, and certainly hurt food and fuel for the home front, so in this TL the home front holds up better, and the Germans have a bit better equipment on the western front in 1918, so survive.
But this does nothing to help their Central Powers Allies which fall apart just the same.
The stab in the back myth is already proven false in real life. Germany's allies militaries were collapsing and the Entente was rapidly advancing by the end of the war.
Especially as the Entente would be likely to listen to French proposals to turn back the clock to All the Little Germanies, so to speak.
(East Germany)
If Germany is destroyed the new Prussian or (Brandenburgian if they decide to destroy prussia or spin off east prussia) state that would make up the tarritory your asking about would be larger then otl east Germany. Even after ww2 poland only got pomerania and silesia due to heavy pressure from the soviats as componsation for them annexing eastern poland and the Rosevelt and Churchill plans did not call for the regions being spun off as a independent region so they are likley to stay a part of this state. Saxony was made independent under the rosevelt plan though so I could see east germany being anywhere between 1 to 3 states (1 state is the most likly but up to 3 may be possible 3 if Saxony and east prussia are made thier own states)
Roosevelt Plan
The Roosevelt Plan was a plan for the occupation of Germany after World War II. Proposed by Franklin D. Roosevelt, the proposal was for Germany (as defined according to its border immediately prior to the Munich Agreement) to be partitioned. East Prussia would be divided between Poland and the...
Hanover will likly be spun off as a independent pro British protectorate
(West germany)
The greater Rhine/Ruhr area may be split into possibly as meny as half a dozen states but probably would be 1 and exist as a French protectorate.
(South Germany)
Bavaria or Austria would likly form the centerpiece of a reorganized south german confederation to consolidate the remaining catholic south
(Part 2 Unification contingency.)
In order to deter unification and ensure Germany stays weak even if it does I would suggest the following stipulations to make the idea of unification intentionaly painful and thus less likely to happen.
(Prussian state) if the prussian state is to join in union with any other german state silesia and Lusatia are to be withdrawn from prussia administration and partitioned between poland and czechoslovokia
Lusatia - Wikipedia
Silesia - Wikipedia
Sorbs - Wikipedia
Lands of the Bohemian Crown - Wikipedia
Schleswig–Holstein question - Wikipedia
East Frisia - Wikipedia
Frisia - Wikipedia
Dutch annexation of German territory after the Second World War - Wikipedia
If the Rhine state is to join in union with any other german state the west bank of the rhine is to be separated from rhinish administration and partitioned between France, Belgum and Luxamborg
Left Bank of the Rhine - Wikipedia
Luxembourg annexation plans after the Second World War - Wikipedia
Belgian annexation plans after the Second World War - Wikipedia
Rhine crisis - Wikipedia
Natural borders of France - Wikipedia
If the south german confederation should join in union with any other german state the south austrian lands making up United Slovinia and north Tyrol are to be withdrawn from south german administration and partitioned between Italy and Yugoslavia.
United Slovenia - Wikipedia
Carinthia - Wikipedia
1920 Carinthian plebiscite - Wikipedia
North Tyrol - Wikipedia
Central Eastern Alps - Wikipedia
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