From Iron, Blood: A Bismark Assassinated TL

[FillyofDelphi]

Only three people have ever had a workable solution to this intractable business of Schleswig-Holstien; The Duke-Claiment, who has gone mad - a German Minister, who is dead - and myself, who seems to have been forgotten in all of this
-Alleged to Christian IX, King of Denmark, during a private dinner.
​

Viewed as it is in the broader historical context of German nationalism and the Austro-Prussian rivalry, it is an often neglected fact that beneath all the scheming and grandstanding of the Confederation Crisis of 66' lay a very real political question on which the legal wrangling was based. This was the Duchy of Schleswig-Holstein; one of the handful of feudal oddities that Napoleon, in his reorganization of the continent, had neglected to sweep away. For centuries, these minor German states, while legally part of the Holy Roman Empire and its Confederation successor, had been held by the Absolutist King of Denmark in personal union; a state which both ethnically and politically was distinctly non-German. The local nobility and population were more than comfortable with this arrangement, their liberties protected under ancient treaties that guaranteed their eternal rights and autonomy, and this arrangement had remained virtually unquestioned throughout the continent’s history. Since the rise of ethnic nationalism, however, two broader regional trends had turned this previously tranquil march between the German and Scandinavian words which would serve as Europe’s power keg for virtually the entire mid-nineteenth century.

The first of these emerged from the German end, as an unintended consequence of the industrialization and re-organization of lands in Northern Germany in the post-Napoleonic years. With the large scale consolidation of agricultural estates and the rise in productivity by new farming techniques and early mechanization, the excess rural population had begun a steady migration north, settling in Holstein and Southern Schleswig. This relatively rapid introduction of so many economic migrants into the already low-populated area had produced, not surprisingly, a great deal of tension as the new arrivals shifted the ethno-linguistic demographics of the Duchies; increasingly transforming German in the sole language of business and daily life in the south and placing increasing pressure on the local Danes to conform to their neighbor’s culture. To the Danish elite; be they commercial, political, or intellectual, all viewed this trend with grave concern though for very different reasons. Merchants and the landholding class feared losing their positions of wealth as the local economy re-oriented south to the Ruhr, the nobility fretted about the liberal sentiments of the pan-Germanists who might piggy-back political reforms on the cause of “liberation”, while the bourgeois were inflamed with their own counterpart to the Pan-Germanism, a dream of unifying all Scandinavian peoples under a new, enlightened crown and Constitution which would lead to a great reform in Europe’s political system just as their early embracement of Luther had allowed the region to lead to that great reformation of Christianity.

And such a crown might very well be in in the works, for on the Danish side the growing concern about the possibility that Denmark might be a decline relative to the Germanies was embodied by the looming crisis over the Danish crown. As it became clear the last member of the male line, Fredrick VIII, wouldn’t be producing a son, Copenhagen faced a similar dilemma as had recently befallen London: namely, that Germany’s Salic Law would lead to the splitting of the Danish and Schleswig crowns. Since the later didn’t operate under the same Constitution, removing the dynastic link would make Duchies independent in both law and practice and, inevitably, lead to them drifting away from their Nordic roots and into Prussia’s sphere of dominance. To not even attempt to contest such a lose would be materially foolish, politically untenable for any government who tried, and morally repugnant as it would abandon tens of thousands of Danish subjects (And Norse-speaking peoples) to minority status under the iron fist of Whilhelm. It was in their attempt to pre-empt this that the Danish Parliament, believing it had the support of the Swedes and the international community, had taken the fateful step of compelling the newly-crowned King Christian to sign a new Constitution, a key clause of which declared the twin Duchies to be fully integrated (if autonomous) provinces of the Kingdom of Denmark.

It was this action more than any other that set the stage for the tragedy that was about to play out. By taking such an aggressive and absolute stance, the Danish legislature found the British and Russian backing and Swedish sympathies which had thusfar kept the Confederation from taking action evaporating, compelling them in 1864 into a war against the Saxon-Hanoverforce the German Diet had sent to enforce the status quo compromise hammered out in the Protocol of London twelve years previous. Following a year of humiliating defeats King Christian; who had supported a policy of peaceful co-existence and reform from the beginning, had been obliged to abandon his family's 400 year old crown to the fickle arena of international politics. A Danish-German succession crisis became an Inter-German one, with two Great Powers backing alternate futures for the provisional government of the region without any clear possibility of a mediated solution. The previous possibilities; a partition of the Duchies (despite the wishes of the locals and their guarantee of inseparability under the ancient Treaty Ribe) or a dispensation by the Confederation Diet to allow the Glucksburg branch of the Danish royal family to be appointed as heir-apparent in exchange for Denmark agreeing to join the Confederation (King Christian's proposed solution, which had been unacceptable to Bismark's government) impossible in an Austro-Prussian disagreement.

The centeral question now was not the ethnicity of the regional monarch, but weather that monarch would be an independent Duke, or the head of an already existing state (specifically Prussia). From a purely legal standpoint, virtually every government in Europe had been in agreement that according to local laws the Augustenburgs; as the closest patralinial branch of the Oldenburgs, held rightful title, the current head Fredrick VIII technically already having a court at Kiel. However, the facts on the ground were that of one man's will; the late Otto von Bismark. Having established Prussian occupation and overwhelming military superiority in the region by kicking out the Saxon-Hanover contingent and isolating\cowing the Austrian garrison through liberal use of his right of military access through Holstein, the ambitious young star had seized the opportunity to integrate the provinces into his grand Germany project by setting up a parallel administration. The process of staging an effective fait accompli of integration had already been underway, Prussian corps already surrounding the Austrian forts when he'd met with his untimely demise, which caused many of the locals to believe the incoming delegation from Berlin to be the newly-imposed civil administration.

The Prussian mission, in its sensitivity and need to carry immediate authority headed by no less a figure than Karl von Werther, arrived in the city on May 19th. Agreeing to meet with Duke Fredrick in the Rantzau Statehouse of the family's ancient local castle complex; notably after having met with the commander of the Prussian forces and not only ordering their return to the encampments but ceremonially dismissing his honor guard and entering the castle solely under the protection of an Augustenburg escort, the next two nights were spent wining and dining with his host and local notables while official talks took place behind closed doors. Papers covering the event reported how the Duke seemed to "lavish over his guest and bask in the honor and respect bestowed upon proper European royalty, reflecting the mood of the city itself as the long shadow of uncertainty finally passed over us". It was on the forth night that,after careful planning and the final assembling of witnesses from as many nation's as possible from consulates, company houses, and relatives,' houses that Karl gave the public reading of his monarch's recognition and offer of "these tokens of compensation and respect"; a ducal regalia to go along with the utilitarian golden bars and the request for "wise council" as Minister-President. Taking great care not to commit a faux paux, however, he had the local Lutheran priest present the regalia, Duke Fredrick accepting the crown with a pledge to "Bring responsible government to those God has placed under my charge, be it directly or through his servants"

That night also saw his first effective order as King; defaulting to the absolute authority the monarch of the Duchies still technically held under the unreformed local legal codes, to summon a diet of all the local noble families to "draft a Constitution for my consideration, based on the ideals of the peoples of Schleswig-Holstein"; a move the Prussian minutes of the meetings never showed they agreed to. Most historians see this as an attempt to sidestep the Great Powers using the excuse of needing to reexamine outdated laws to intervene in the reconstruction of the state into a token of power politics rather than one he truely ran. Though knowing it would disturb his King, Karl never the less used his authority to order the Prussian forces to facilitate the order, believing it necessary to deny the other German states a solid case that Berlin was not in fact honoring her recognition and thus losing what diplomatic standing she might have to obtain allies. There remained, however, the thorny legal issue of weather such a Constitution could even be called for without the formal accent of Austria, even if it was pro-forma; the Hapsburg ambassador in Holstein (as part of the local occupation), not too subtly expressing that concern to whatever French, British, or especially and most ominously any Danes or Swedes he could find...

 

[FillyofDelphi]

​

Though the events in Kiel did carry the apperance of finally untying the Gordian Knot of Schleswig-Holstien , in reality it would raise far more legal questions and political concerns then it answered, causing events to spiral further tragically towards a violent collusion. The situation set up by Bismark prior to his death, the intrigues and interests of the Austrian court, and the troubled terms of the Peace of Prague which had produced the joint Austro-Prussian administration had in the region had taken on a life of their own, leaving fresh wounds that were merely aggravated by these attempts to placate them. Most of these events were in direct response to the attempts by the newly-appointed Duke to establish his nation as a fully independent state, subject to no undue forgien controls: the situation that pre-Crisis had been the professed desire of nearly every party sans the late Minster, but who's final implementation carried with it unforseen legal consquences that, in the face of international interests, would ultimately make peace impossible.

Fittingly enough, the first irreconcilable problem came from Fredrick's very first action; the declaration of himself as duke of Schleswig-Holstien as a single state, not Duke of Shleswig and Duke of Holstein as seperate legal entities. Such a unilateral action flew not only in the face of centuries of legal tradtition, but was also a direct infringement of two major international agreements: the London Protocols of 1852, in which all the Great Powers had declared the Duchies would be prepartually inseperable, but distinct entities, and the Organic Law of the German Confederation, which explicently declared Holstein (but not Schleswig) to be part of the union and which to amended to alter its membership nessecitated the approval of the Confederation Diet. While the distance and discresion held by the European courts kept the former from immediately triggering a crisis, later question could not be similarly put off when, on the morning of the 23rd of May, the Austrian consulate in Kiel received an messange from the palace formally requesting offucal Austrian recognition of "restored government" of the united Duchies. The poor consul, however, caught without contingencies for this unexpected situation and already struggling to keep the crisis under control, dident have the nerve to risk deviating from his previous instructions. In a move that would be followed by a majority of the other German states, the ambassador expressed his monarch's congratulations and recognition of the "Sovergein authority of the person and courts of Fredrick VIII, Duke of Holstein and Duke of Schleswig" but refused to address the comique to match the title on the request, "Duke of Schleswig-Holstien". On that matter, he stated that "The Council will present to the Bundesversammlung in its assembly on June 14th, to give time for due consideration, the question of the integration of the territories of Schleswig into the lands under the protection of the Confederation."

Under a literal reading of the Organic Law/Constiution of the Deutcherbund , the response was legally airtight. The ambassadors of the minor German states, aligning behind Austria, wrote vigerious defences of the Confederation's right to weigh in on the matter in their own responses on the grounds that the integration of Schleswig would legally obligate them to deploy troops to defend the the region as a fellow member state should it be made part of Holstein. To Duke Fredrick, who's pride was still tender from years of being left out to dry politically and paranoid of the Great Power meddling in his state building if he dident acheive recognition and a stable government fast enough, took this prudent delay as a "deep betrayal" by the Habsburgs and his German bretheren. Von Werther, seeing the opening and having far more latitude and a cooler head than his Austrian counterpart, took every opportunity to encourage this perception and ingratiate himself with the (still absolute) monarch; ordering Prussian troops to open up their depots to arm and help with the organization of an army for the new state and to assisting local mayors and Augustenburg appointees in displacing Austrian administrators. To avoid blatently violating the Gastein Convention, however, Von Werther was careful to issue countermanding orders to those given by the Bismark administration at the beginning of the occupation. Under no circumstances, with a penalty of immediate discharge for the officers involved, were Prussian military officials to take over the task of governing; all civilian affairs would have to be approved by and done under the authority of either the local nobles or an attache appointed by the court in Kiel. Over the next week, Austrian presence in the region would be driven into the walls of a handful of barracks and fortresses; stuck in a kind of house arrest where supplies were allowed in, but the men unable to leave.

The second legal question came about by accepting Prussia's handing over the administration of Schleswig, triggering terms buried in the middle of The Treaty of Vienna which had ended the Second Schleswig War. Never having been exoected to be enforced; having been negotiated by a Bismarkin administration who fully intended to annex the province to Prussia, Article V had been included as a fig-leaf to the ideal of self-determination (held legitimently by Napoleon III and the rhetoric on which Prussia's German Unification project hinged) stating that the population of northern Schleswig, who were primarily ethinic Danes, would be reunited with the Danish crown if they voted to do so in a to-be-organized plebiscite. Berlin, taking advantage of the vaguries of the language and their total military supremacy, had interpretted the clause to mean the people could chose to remain under Danish sovergeinty... but that the territory itself was German. Under that assumption, the Prussians had declared those who wished to remain Danish subjectssubjec have 6 years to leave the Duchy and proceeded to begin a campaign of intimidation against non-Germans; resulting in over a third of the population being displaced into "exile" in Jutland. These fifty thousand Danes (plus some Swedes and Norwegians) formed into refugee communities hesitant to lay down roots in the local communities; nursing the vain hope of a vote that would allow them to return to their homes and farms.

As their formal expulsion was four years away even under the Prussians terms however, and the removal of the marshal law of occupation having rendered the terms of that declaration legally moot, the Duke's call for the assembly of the local nobles and intent to legally unify the Duchy with Holstein kindled anew the dim embers of Danish/Schlewsig Nationalism among both the exiles and still-present Scandinavian population. Pointing to the London Protocol, Article V, and Fredrick VII's Feburary 18th, 1854 constitution (The last constitution the German Confederation and the local Estates of the Rigsraadet had both not disputed, which placed some limits on the authority of the monarch) the nobility who received the invitation organized a banquet in the port city of Kolding not far from the Danish-German border; an epicenter southern Jutland commerce with the Danish isles and Sweden as well as a major concentration of the exile community. They hoped to use the event to gather signatures and declarations of support for a petition of greavence against the Duke's "usurpation of their rights" and announce their intention to boycott the Constitional Assembly... thus denying it a quarium and forcing Fredrick to agree to autonomy in order to avoid an independence vote he'd inevitably lose. The timing of the event, scheduled to take place in the middle of June, had the added benefit of coming after the end of the University term; opening the event to the intelligencia and students who formed the most ardent supporters of Scandinavianism.

This iniative would prove to be too successful for it's own good, however. While not wishing union with the Germanies, the ultimate goals of the Schleswig nobility were moderate and practical: the maintaining/recovery of their upper class status and the lands which were the basis of their wealth with the continued protection from economic competition by remaining outside the Zoulverein and political competition by coming under the Conservative government now dominant in Copenhagen. The mistake they made was neglecting that the majority of the forces ready to fight for Schleswig; the refugees, veterans of the Second Schleswig War and their relatives, former National Liberal administrators and petty officers discharged from the shrunken Danish army and beuracracy, Norwegian-Swedish volunteers, and especially the students and academic Scandinavianism were men of lower economic status and higher romantic sympathies. Thus, while the toasts in the parlors might be to "tradition and autonomy", over the next few weeks the streets and quays were increasingly filled with calls for "Denmark to the Eider!", "Christian, Constiution, and Congress!" and most ominiously "Swords for one Scandinavia!" by crowds filled with the most militent type of man; without property , family, or immediate prospect of fortune in the depressed and underdeveloped economy and the idealistic worldview and sense of invincibility that came from youth alongside a familiarity with regimented life. Many arrived in already formed militias from their local communities, self-organized peacekeeping forces from the refugee villages, reformed regiments informally commanded by discharged officers or Swedish sympathizers "on leave", or in Academic Legions mirroring the student movements of 48' in the German states, adding to the militerization of the event.

In their eyes the Germans had made it very clear that the stakes were nothing less than the ethnic cleansing of Schleswig, and the destruction of it's heritage. Given archeologists from the south were already claiming ancient settlement of Jutland by the Germans and Prussia's clearly displayed appetite for expansion, demegouges cried in the streets, why should this be expected to be the end? With the Prussian navy able to base itself in the ports of it's new clients, what was to stop them from getting around the Sounds and repeating the humiliation the British had brought upon them in 1807 by bombarding the capital? What would stop the soldier-king, having broken out of his Baltic cage, from turning the industry of the Ruhr into an ironclad fleet that would hang like a sword of Damocles over the entirety of Western Europe? Ideologically, the nobles quickly saw the affair flying out of their hands and into the heady atmosphere of romantic nationalism; only encouraged as rumors of supposed Austrian support for the independence of Schleswig (though spun in a very different way than the German states saw it) spread like wildfire through the bars.

Now, they felt, was the time to strike just as Garibaldi had. They simply needed to find their King Emmanuel...

 

[Mikestone8]

With the Prussian navy able to base itself in the ports of it's new clients, what was to stop them from getting around the Sounds and repeating the humiliation the British had brought upon them in 1807 by bombarding the capital? What would stop the soldier-king, having broken out of his Baltic cage, from turning the industry of the Ruhr into an ironclad fleet that would hang like a sword of Damocles over the entirety of Western Europe?

They're getting a little wild now. The Prussian Navy was a negligible force in 1866. Two years before it couldn't stand even against the Danish fleet w/o Austrian help.

Nor was the industry of the Ruhr very far along as yet. German [1] production of steel and pig-iron was only about equal to that of France, and far behind that of Britain. Prussia was the smallest of the great powers, and in no position to dominate anyone.

[1] Excluding Austria.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

None of Duke Fredrick's actions, however, would have a greater impact than his decision to remain in Kiel to personally run his state while the Constitutional Convention was being assembled. In stark contrast to the initiative this allowed Prussia to seize abroad; leaving their rivals scrambling to find some kind of justification for their mobilization in the face of the legitimate sovereign authorizing and overseeing every action of what had previously been an illegal invasion, back in Berlin the absence of their Minister-President candidate left the Royalist faction fighting a delaying action against the increasingly-forceful initiatives of the Landtag to reassert their power. Under the Prussian Constitution (or at least as far as Bismark had asserted in his Luckentheorie policy), the executive, as agent of the Crown, held supremacy in the event the government and legislature couldn't reach an agreement, and it had been under this dubious interpretation that he'd been able to suppress the reformist tendencies of the influential German Progressive Party since his appointment to the position. Even this excuse carried less and less weight as the weeks went on and the office remained vacant, however, and it was only a matter of time before the Abgeordnetenhaus would try to pass legislation explicitly rejecting that hated principal under threat of withholding the budget. This scenario; which would give royal affirmation to the Landtag's invoidable "power of the purse" and effective equality to crown appointees, was one King Whilhelm sought to avoid by any means nessicery... which only increased his annoyance at the news his prospective client was delayed precisely to build such a government.

Such legislation was in fact already being drafted, under the name Rechenschaft (Act of Account) by representatives rushing to clarify their powers in this gap in royal obstructionism. Having seen what lengths the reactionaries were willing to go to maintain their position despite their parliamentary minority, the Progressives and fellow liberal allies were dedicated to insuring they could never be so ignored again; a move which required declaring specific areas where they reigned supreme over the throne. In order to give the Act as much credibility as possible, the party had assigned primary authorship and sponsorship to representative Hermann Schulze-Delitzsch. Hermann, a self-made banking magnate and poster child for the rising urban middle class, was known and admired throughout the Germanies for his innovative methiod of insuring affordable credit and financial service to even those of modest means through hisVorschussvereine ; "People's Banks" that took advantage of the new ease of communications and record keeping telegraph and modern mass markets allowed to pool the deposits of thousands if not tens of thousands of clients. With the prestige of his name and the integration of his tested ideas into the national budgeting process they believed it would be politically impossible for the King to reject the bill without alienating his industrialist supporters and the commerce-dependent Rhineland; pillers of support he couldn't afford to lose. In meantime, the more conventional Liberals were putting increased pressure on the newly elected President of the Landtag's, fellow progressive Max von Forckenbeck, to use his position to introduce the question of Luckentheorie to the legislative agenda and thus remove that tool of royal absolutism.

Confident in their position and needing to drum up support among the undecided factions with the Prussian state,the Progressives diden't even try to be subtle with their intentions. Leading members of the party could be found making public speeches promoting their cause throughout the wealthiest (and thus the most enfranchised under three-tiered national sysytem) spheres of Prussian society; Johann Jacoby to the Jewish-German community, Rudolf Virchow to the academics and professionals, and Hans von Unruh to the barons of industry being of most note for establishing the longer term political phenomenon of the Burgertumbund ; the common electoral bloc formed in many countries of the financial, manufacturing, and transportation/commercial elite in opposition agrarian-landed interests. In addition to marshaling votes and financial support, these public specticals were also done to counter the media strategy of the Interior and Foreign Ministries.

Having accepted that an unjustified self-coup would only result in potentially-revolutionary backlash, Von Roon had managed to convince the King that they could still make the best out of the uncertainty Duke Fredrick's intransigence was creating to cultivate fear; the drums of war hopefully enough loud enough to drown out calls for reform until the Fredrick could be cajoled into taking his position at court. To pull this off without resorting to outright censorship, sympathetic newspapers were fed reports requested from the frontier garrisons and agents of the Interior Ministry's intelligence network, insuring the population received a steady diet of Saxon and Hannoverian military maneuvers, acts of harassment and violence against Germans in Schleswig and radical speeches by the hateful mob swelling in Kolding and, as the days went on, sporadically in other parts of Denmark and Sweden as well, and stories from Holsteiners about the abuses carried out during the Austrian occupation including, allegedly, forceful conversions to the Catholic Church carried out under Habsburg bayonets in hopes of stoking the anti-clerical paranoia not uncommon among the Enlightenment liberals. This began the "War of the Columns", as Conservative-patriotic messages fought for page space with reports on Liberal-sponsored events, soldier's stories with editorials calling for franchise reform, and advertisements for local militias and "locally produced and patriotic" products with the finest French imports and "peace societies" throughout the summer.

The results of the campaign were mixed for both sides and highly regionalized; largely decided by the main subscriber base and personal political leanings of the owner of the local media mogul. In the old domains of East Prussia and Brandenburg and the as well as the borderlands along the Baltic and in southern Silesia, the Royalist message reigned dominant; spontaneous displays of dynastic loyalty not uncommon as the locals combined celebration with drill to show their readiness to resist foreign aggression. The Liberals, in contrast, found their core of support in the urban centers of the Ruhr and Rhine as well as, ironically, the Catholic populations of the old Ecclesiastic and Polish territories; the populations supporting the idea of equal membership into Prussian society and fearing a bout of ethno-religious violence would break out if the Conservatives took total control and fearing for the fate of the Papacy if Italy exploited a "Fraternal War" to move on the Holy See. Far from rallying Prussia firmly around the flag as they'd hoped, the spat served to widen the chasm between the two sides... though, on the balance, to the Conservative's benefit as the "War Question" did come to overshadow the deeper problems of government and societal reform.

It was the events abroad, however, that provided the Royalists with the ammunition that made such a victory possible. Up in Kiel, the first weeks of June saw the arrival of a constant procession of German nobility; both Holstein vassals coming to swear reality and take their roll in writing the new Constiution and residents of other states sent to feel out the new political situation or get in on the ground floor of new commercial opportunities. Alongside the pageantry, however, there marched clear signs of German stoicism; be they cohorts of soldiers accompanying their lords to form the backbone of a Ducial army or thinly-veiled agents of the various Crowns sent to try to exploit the current crisis. The city's position also gave it an air of danger; rumors of Danish brigand sightings coming from villages no further than the opposite side of the Eider on which Fredrick's claimed capital sat. Though these stories were considered mostly baseless, the fact that the Duke insisted on holding court directly on the Ducial border showed his absolute dedication to uniting the polities; a stance with more potential to kill than any rash of banditry. Nothing was more disturbing, however, than the eerie emptiness of the north bank and lack of traffic on it's bridges; it's German residents having already come south and their Danish residents having quietly slipped away to the north... though weather it was to Kolding or simply somewhere outside the reach of a potential lynch mob nobody could be sure.

Being a major Baltic port, the city was kept well aware of the events conspiring in Kolding; Duke Fredrick openly condemning the meeting and threatening to charge the absent Schleswig nobility with high treason if they continued to entertain the radicals. By now, however, the city had reached a scale and intensity far beyond what they and their moderate retainers had any hope of controlling. With over 7,000 men at arms, the volunteers had loosely organized themselves into a self-proclaimed Frikorps under the nominal authority of a man named Ake Holmberg. A 39 year old former Major in the Swedish army, Ake had sought a transfer from his his training position at Carlsten Fortress to a command in the intervention force he'd believed King Charles was sending over at the outbreak of the 2nd Schleswig War, only to resign his commission is disgust when he learned the man he'd thought the champion of the Scandinavian cause had flinched in the face of the Prussian threat. Having spent the last two years in Copenhagen, what he lacked in direct battle experience he made up for with his sharp knowledge of effective troop organization, drill, and the cold charisma of a man who feared nothing in the pursuit of his cause. Yet, despite his stated goal of protecting the freedom of "Scandinavian Schleswig", there were no signs of him making any moves towards an invasion of the province any time soon, and in fact since his rise the appeals to the Danish and Swedish governments that had come so freely from the firebrands had all but disappeared. Nobody yet sure of his political goals, speculation swirled: did Charles's betrayal turn him to Republicanism? Could he be negotiating with the Schleswig nobility to find a Duke from among them? Perhaps there were secret connections to a foreign power who were waiting for the right moment to unleash him?

These rumors were still spiraling about when the fateful date of June 14th arrived, adding further tinder to great pile created by the hair trigger nerves created in the past month. All across the Germanies, the armies had been mobilized, the rest of Europe watching anxiously as the Confederation Diet faced it's ultimate test; one where any wrong step would break out into the first Great Power conflict in half a century...

 

[FillyofDelphi]

A Brief Primer of International Policies on the Eve of the Confederation Crisis

When a man of my name is in power,
he must do great things
-Napoleon III, Emperor of the French​

France

As the Great Power traditionally most involved in German affairs, the deteriorating situation across the Rhine caused the French government no small amount of concern. Though enjoying a rapid economic boom and an indisputable majority of support from the voting population, over the course of the 60's Emperor Napoleon's forgein policy had been increasingly ineffective and was quickly becoming a rallying point for critics from both the left and the right; Liberals assulting him on his fruitless adventuring in Mexico to prop up the Emperor Maximillian while backing down from helping democratic nationalists in Poland, while Legitimists and Catholic conservatives denounced the nation's alliance with the "Godless government in Turin" who was infringing on the sovereignty of the Holy Mother Church and his toleration of anti-clerical policies in Spain. More problematic was that these complaints were beginning to act as a proxy for airing domestic gripes, helping the opposition to his regime grow into something potentially threatening. It remained, however, still small enough that Napoleon still felt confident it could be discredited if he could demonstrate a diplomatic success.

In pursuit of that goal, the Emperor had been discreetly contact with both of the teutonic powers; tempting the Habsburgs the prospect of the abandoning their support of Italy in any future conflict and while holding personal talks with Bismark over allowing Prussia a free hand with the minor German states. In both cases, he'd asked only for the same modest price; minor territorial concessions in the coal and iron rich Paletunate and diplomatic support for his own Pan-nationalist project in the Francophone regions of Wallonia and Luxembourg, but had in May of 1866 had only vague, unwritten promises to show for it. So, fitting his broader indecisive attitude, Napoleon maintained a policy of staying on the sidelines; though occasionally reminding both parties that he was still open to formalizing their "gentlemen's agreement" in a treaty if they should wish it.

While this discresion had its price; obliging Paris not to show overt favor to one side or the other and so surrendering France's voice in Centeral European affairs, the impact of Von Bismark's death proved strong enough to break this deadlock in Franco-German diplomacy. As the dramatic pivot on the matter of the Augustenburgs cleared showed, the domineering attitude and style of the Minister's government had inexorablely linked his policy with his person. When he'd bleed to death on the streets of Berlin, therefore, any weight his words carried had died with him. The beuracratic and autocratic nature of Franz Joseph's court, on the other hand, insured that government policy was more deeply entrenched than any individual, and thus could be depended upon. In addition, an active policy of reconciliation with Vienna in the aftermath of the Italian Wars and similar outlooks on policy meant relations were far warmer than they were with Prussia; who's possession of the "Natural Borders" of France along the left bank of the Rhine proved a constant source of low tension.

Given this, alongside Austria's obvious advantages should the crisis break out into violence (A larger population, the support of the vast majority of the German states, a legislature that was firmly under the administration's control, ect.), Napoleon III and his forgein Minister de Luhys came to an agreement that the odds were finally sure enough to place their bet on the German question by committing to a total, if subtle, backing of Austria. As such, as the June 14th meeting approached the French ambassador to the Confederation, Edme de Reculot, was forwarded a sealed draft of a treaty to be presented to the Austrian deligate; pledging to weigh in on Austria's side in any international mediation called over the affair, to align her policy on the Eider Duchies, and gurantee against the military intervention of any extra-German state against Austrian-aligned territories in the Confederation in exchange for her diplomatic support on any matters relating to Wallonia or Luxembourg, a joint gurantee of the remaining territories of the Papal States, and in the event that a war broke out between the rivals (In which case France pressure and influence would keep Italy neutral), France would be allowed to aquire the Prussian Paletunate if Austria emerged victorious. In an effort to prove the credibility of his newly-adopted alignment, the Emperor also quietly scraped any policy plans that might appear dismissive of Habsburg interests; determining that insuring French security and prosperity by aquiring the strategic and industrially-prospective Region Vitale of the Rhinish and gaining a reliable Great Power ally would do far more to stabilize his government than any temporary cost on the periphery.

Among those actions for which records remain (Any policies which may have been entirely co-signed to the furnace are, sadly, lost to history) were the withdrawal of two Imperial Ordinances set to btongeleased within the month; one to be delivered to the King Emmanual II, the other to General Francios at the headquarters of his Expeditionary Force in Mexico City. The former had been to open negotiations on a final solution to the "Roman Question"; in which Pope Pius continued the Catholic Church's denial of the existence of the Kingdom of Italy as the Italian Nationalists fought to seize Rome as their national capital; kept apart only by the bayonets of a permanent French garrison. To smooth over relations with Italy and free her to focus on the only other "forgein occupier" of Italian soil; namely the Viennese presence in Veneto, would throw into doubt French dedication to containing Italian ambitions and thus would have to be abandoned.

Mexico, on the other hand, had been the poster child for Habsburg-Bonaparte-Catholic cooperation; Maximilian I being the Austrian Emperor's younger brother, nominated by the royal-religious Conservative establishment in Mexico who were the ideological kin of the two Emperors' main domestic support base, and installed by French guns on French forgein policy. Though their continued involvement was starting to raise diplomatic tensions with the Americans; dedicated as they were to their ideals of Republicanism and keeping colonial influence out of their Hemisphere (With perhaps a fair dose of prejudice against "Popery" thrown in for good measure), they had only recently emerged from a 4 year long civil war and were struggling to integrate not only a resentful full third of their country, but also handle wide swaths of land held by Native Americans; a people Napoleon had read were some of Maximilian's most ardent supporters. Of course, such a distant observation had failed to grasp the vast difference between the Indians of the Great Plains and those of the rainforests and highlands of southern Mexico, but from his position across the Atlantic he managed to convince himself Washington's internal difficulties meant he could at least give Maximilian a little more time to try to consolidate his position...and if withdrawal did become nessicery he'd at least be able to get Austria on board beforehand.

 

[BootOnFace]

It seems like Napoleon III might be pulling himself out of the hole he dug himself into in the '50s. The nightmare scenario for Prussia and definitely exactly what Bismark was working so hard to prevent.

 

[Mikestone8]

Does this mean that Nappy has acquiesced in Austria retaining Venetia?

That is hugely unlikely as by all accounts he was quite obsessive on the subject. For their part, the Austrians will never give it up unless they are confident of getting Prussian Silesia in return, which requires a big military victory.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

I hold that the real policy of England... is to be the champion of justice and right, pursuing that course with moderation and prudence, not becoming the Quixote of the world, but giving the weight of her moral sanction and support wherever she thinks that justice is, and whenever she thinks that wrong has been done.

It is the wish of Her Majesty's Government that the independence, the integrity, and the rights of Denmark may be maintained. We are convinced—I am convinced at least—that if any violent attempt were made to overthrow those rights and interfere with that independence, those who made the attempt would find in the result that it would not be Denmark alone with which they would have to contend
-The 3rd Viscount Lord Palmerson, before the British House of Commons, 1848 and 1863 Respectively
​

Great Britain

In what would be revealed to be an unfortunate pattern, British diplomacy during the critical June Days were more heavily influenced by internal pressures than adherence to any sensible, long-standing foreign policy. Yet in contrast to her continental counterparts, who sought to use the incidental crisis abroad to push their agenda at home, Great Britain's desires were to act abroad but were frustrated by an incidental crisis at home. The Liberal Government, under the Ministry of the 1st Lord Russel, was reeling and broken in half under the twin loses of their former leader; the recently-late Viscount Palmerson, and the defeat of the Prime Minister's controversial Reform Bill which would have widened the national franchise to all males making at least 7 pounds annually. This attempt at democratization had deeply shaken the trust of the gentry and financial elite in the Liberals at a critical moment, as that spring the nation was facing a major credit crisis with the nation's largest bank Overend, Gurney & Company having suspended payments and setting off arush of withdrawals from financial institutions across the country. By mid-June OG&C was on the verge of entering liquidation, and the sudden spike in interest rates and calling in of loans by smaller banks rushing to meet depositor's demands was rapidly eroding the job and saving security of institutions all across England. This financial blow fell particularly hard on the middle class; small merchants, professionals, and skilled labor, who were shuffled to the lowest priority by cash-strapped banks just as demand for their services crashed. This proved to be one injustice too many when representatives of the company reported to the news that they'd been obliged to close when the Bank of England refused a request for emergency credit... implementing a government policy they'd just once again been denied a voice in influencing.

The resulting agitation from all directions; broad sections of the public demanding actions that would no doubt bring about enough defections among his party's anti-reform MP's to bring down the government, the Exchequer suddenly facing the prospect of a budgetary shortfall just as the price of borrowing was going through the roof, and the American government increasingly breathing down their neck about compensation for damages incurred by British-built ships deployed by the Rebels during their recent Civil War during a critical moment of restructuring in the Canadian territories, left Prime Minister Russel deeply dismayed. Having spent most of his political career as the Colonial Secretary and in the Foreign Ministry his natural inclination was towards international affairs, where he had a clear vision of and plan to promote British interests. At this critical juncture though he suddenly found the stability of his new office balancing on a knife's edge, with any controversial action running the risk of bringing into power a Conservative administration which would no doubt further damage Britain's ability to affect world affairs by neglecting to speak up or take action to protect her interests. This maddening paradox, when added to the already great weight of his professional duties, proved highly stressful to the Prime Minister; those who met with him during the period noting how he'd become significantly more irritable and his conversation unusually curt and blunt as the two year anniversaries of his humiliations ticked by

In his ideal world, Lord Russel would have done what he'd thought he'd persuaded Palmerson to support in 1864 and deploy the British Navy into the Sound as a show of force against Prussian aggression; using the threat of commerce warfare to compel the Prussians into actually accepting the terms of international mediation by the Great Powers as had been the European consensus following the Congress of Vienna, rather than resorting to the Napoleonic tactics of ramming through their desires by force of arms. The London Peace Conference of 1864 having been his project; hoping to be the man to finally achieve the diplomatic holy grail of mid-19th century politics by providing a definitive solution to the Schleswig-Holstien question, he'd taken Otto von Bismark's casual dismissal of calls of continued cease-fire and spoiling of any hope for peace by his attack on the Dybbol a personal insult. This desire to satisfy his honor, as well as continue Britain's long-standing policy of not allowing any one land power on the Continent to grow too powerful or to be in a position to create a naval risk in the North Sea (something Prussian hegemony in the Baltic had the potential to become, especially if they continued their project of pushing for a unified Germany), certainly tinted his perception of Prussia's intentions in the sudden shift on attitude towards Duke Fredrick. Bismark had, after all, at that very Conference stated that he was willing to acknowledge the Augustenburg claims only if they give Kiel as a concession for Prussia to build a military shipyard and surrender control over the territory needed to build a canal between the Baltic and North Seas... terms that laid bare his ambitions to make Berlin a sea power. Such an action, however, would no doubt require going to Parliament to call for war-credits at a time when there was already a critical shortage of savings and investable capital on the market; meaning floating bonds would only be viable and unusually high rates of interest. More than once, he cursed his predecessor's insistence on slowly dismantling the income tax and lowering custom's duties in an effort to stimulate free trade and industry... silently suspecting it might have something to do with the formation of the recently bursted credit bubble as well. Nor would he be able to convince them to raise the army without triggering a demand for new elections to form a suitable war-cabinet; elections in which the enfrachised elite who's political influence he'd just tried to dilute would no doubt make their displeasure known and replace him with a more conservative alternative.

Possessing the will but not the means by which to push their policy British policy on the eve of the Crisis was thus one of "soft power"; seeking allies and methods that would give her protests a sharper edge than mere idle threats. Lord Russel's agent in this affair would be Sir Henry Howard; a well-traveled diplomat currently serving as Minister Plenipotenery to the Court of Hannover; Britian's closest ally in the Germanies. His portfolio now expanded to "Envoy Extraordinary to the German Confederation", Sir Henry was sent to Frankfurt with instructions to attempt to align the policy of as many of the states of the German North-west: Hannover, Brunswick, Oldenburg, and the Hessian States in particular, into a policy of actively opposing any Prussian terms that would allow them to project power into the North Sea. Preferably, he'd also find a German catspaw to introduce Russel's preferred "Partition Plan" for formal consideration to the Diet: using the ethnic tensions and voice opposition by the Schleswig nobility as clear proof that the the Treaty of Ribe was, in terms of practical spirit, a dead document and should be discarded to allow for Schleswig and Holstein to be separated and the status quo border of the Confederation be maintained. As for the question of the throne of the northern Duchy, Russel was more than willing to concede the selection to one of the other Great Powers as a plum with which to entice them into playing the roll of "saber rattler" in convincing the Prussians to back down; either allowing Napoleon III's plebiscite request to go through and likely re-form the personal union with Denmark or, if the Emperor proved less than helpful, suggesting a member of anther cadet branch of the family be allowed to take the seat... specifically, the minor member of the House of Schleswig-Holstein-Romanov to be decided by the family head; the Russian Czar.

To convince Duke Fredrick to accept the wisdom of the action, the British government also had a special piece to play: the Duke's younger brother and university chum of the Prussian Crown Prince, Christian Augustenburg. Having now permanently settled in Britain as a term for getting Queen Victoria's permission to finalize his engagement with the Princess Helena, he held the advantage of being family without the baggage of being a potential threat to his brother's claims to Holstein (As he would be unable to reside in and thus effectively govern the Duchy), and caught in the passion of romance and naturally feeling a recent obligation to his in-laws would be naturally inclined to accept the task. Under the excuse a personal visit to congratulate his brother on his coronation and to extend an invitation to the upcoming royal wedding, Christian was asked to discreetly push his brother towards thinking that holding Schleswig would be more trouble than it's worth, as the Duchy would naturally be on the front lines of a future conflict with Denmark, which if he tried to assimilate the region was virtually guaranteed, and to promise that Britain would provide support in the event that anybody "attempted to infringe on your full sovereignty"; namely, any Prussian attempts to treat them like a mere vassal.

 

[Mikestone8]

Napoleon III's plebiscite request to go through and likely re-form the personal union with Denmark

Why would there be any such expectation?

Schleswig and Holstein had been united for centuries, and in all likelihood would want to stay tat way. Certainly the German population would be pretty well unanimous for going with Holstein rather than Denmark, ad eve some Danish-speakers might have a sentimental attachment to the old tie between the duchies.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

It is always better for a sovereign to manage his problems above, than to wait
till they manage themselves from below.
-Czar Alexander II
​

Russia



If one were to stop here, it would be easy to come to the false conclusion that Prussia, apart from a handful of petty German principalities, stood alone in the face of a pan-European concesus. Casting a long shadow over Baltic affairs a nursing a deep grudge against the Western powers was one nation's who's interests couldn't be ignored. This was the Russian Empire, who by throwing it's not inconsiderable bulk onto the Prussian side of the scale allowed her to maintain the belligerent stance that insured a peaceful solution to the Confederation Crisis would remain just out of reach. The "Gendarmie of Europe" facilitating the conflict that would ultimately destroy the Vienna System,with it's dedication to maintaining a Conservative order and international balance, is widely considered the final death of the Concert of Europe the dawn of the widespread Age of Verpolitica, Alexander II's policy in the Crisis considered the ideal example of the philosophy in action.

Russian forgein policy in the 1860's was largely about solving national security concerns and the viability of ambitions revealed by a cold analysis of the experience of the Crimean War. Having watched his father lead the empire into the disasterious conflict over a matter of religious honor and ego; the almost medieval question of who should have the keys to a few temples in the Levant, Alexander inheireted the consequences of an empty treasury and massive debt, hostile relations with the world's two greatest powers, a capital who'd been on the verge of being shelled, and forced disarmament of the nation's Black Sea fleet, putting a major stop on Russia's ambitions towards a year-round ice free port and further expansion against the Ottoman Sultans. Handling these crisies had done much to sour the young Czar to the reactionary ideals of his predicessor; instead pressing on him just how deep the rot of corruption had administrative backwardness had made it's way into the Russian state and her isolation on the fringes of Europe kept her vulnerable and contained. But like Prussia aa decad later his vision for a total restructuring of the state would be frustrated by constant resistance of the lower and administrative nobility... only in his case this was Conservative rather than liberal in nature.

To force through his reforms, the Crown waged an unrestrained attack on the political privlages and financial power base of his opposition. In Russia proper, this was done by empowering the peasentry at the expense of their traditional feudal overlords; crowned by his emancipation of the serfs and introducing the basics of representative government on a local level (notably not on any scale that could check his personal authority) through a system of village councils in 1861. This had proven a major boon for his personal reputation; earning the loving nickname "Czar Liberator", which prestige he'd leveraged to push economic reforms domestically and engratiate himself with potential allies abroad; particularly with the rapidly-rising United States, in whom he saw a highly compatible and vigerious culture and natural fellow rival to France and Great Britain.

These liberal tendencies only went so far as they didn't run up against his true primary interest; the material and security interests of the Russian State. This Verpolitica in the purist sense made him the ideological kin of those like Camillo and Otto; a similarity that had made his cooperation with the later so easy. Having a natural understanding of each other's motivations and thought processes, the Russo-Prussian relationship had a quality almost unheard of in the history of Great Power diplomacy: a lasting, consistent predictability that played out in their near identical interasts in Eastern Europe. In 1863, the two nations had cooperated to crush a Romantic uprising by Polish nationalists (assisted, fittingly enough, by the ultimate Romantic Nationalist Giuseppe Garabaldi) which allowed the Czar to justify mass land confiscations and a brutal crackdown on the Polish nobility to fund and push his reform agenda and resulting in the Alvensleben Convention treaty which lay the precident for military co-operation. In the Baltic, the two powers had mutually supported German ethnic and Romanov dynastic interests and opposing Scandinavianism; empowering the German nobility in the Baltic States to undermine Lithuanian, Latvian, and Estonian identity, pushing for the House of Schleswig-Holstein's claims on their namesake Duchies, and commercially and militarily containing Sweden to keep them from any adventurism in Finland or Denmark. The Russians also had a vested interest in Bismark's plan for a canal through Kiel a project which, when completed, would allow the Russia to escape her ancient containment behind the Danish and Bosporus Sounds and finally project power globally.

This last ambition, more than any other, is what brought Russia to sound out her support the consolidation of the Duchies, or at least their continued union under a freindly monarch. The viability of a Juttish canal was dependent on both sides of the Eidar being secure; otherwise, interdiction of leveding duties on traffic could easily be carried out by a hostile presence along the northern bank of the critical entry strech. In addition, showing that respect for legitimacy and divine - right hadent entirely been abandoned, the events in Kolding raised the spectre of a merging of ideologies: decenteralization, republicanism, Scandinavianism, and the rights of minor nobles to resist the sovergein, that ran in counter to all his own projects. To allow these ideas to gain legitimacy by not challenging them would invite his domestic critics to abuse the loosening of Russia's press restrictions to taint the minds of his loyal subjects, meaning they would have to be restricted at all costs.

Upon the assassination of Bismark, Alexander was one of the first sovergeins to denounce the killer; declaring Blind to be an anarchist and "enemy of European civilization" and promising full cooperation in hunting down any "co-conspiritors". This response is usually credited to the attempt on his own life just a month prior, bringing about suspicion that there may be a plot by factions in the Prussian state to bring down Whilhelm and usher Prince Fredrick and a more legislature-friendly government into power; a change that could only be to Russia's disadvantage. This was soon followed by a glowing endorsement of the prospect of an Augustenburg Ministry, with the end of May seeing the Czar sending a personal telegram to both Kiel and Berlin congrating both parties on "Taking this great step towards an ever closer brotherhood among the one German people" and reiterating "Our family's dedication to the absolute sovergeinity of monarchy, granted by and only subordinate to God himself, which you need not allow to be infringed upon for any reason"

To give these words weight, as well as in response to the mobalization of Austrian armies in Gallicia, orders were sent to Viceroy Friedrich von Berg in Warsaw to take the forces occupying Poland; nearly 60,000 strong, and concentrate them in positions along the border. To take their place, Gendarmes from Russia Proper were dispatched and the region declared to be in a temporary state of "partial martial law"; the extralegal measure not only a routine element of troop deployment, but also being done in response to reports of a sharp rise in anti-semetic violence in the towns along the German border and Baltic Pale. As Cohan Blind's Jewish nature became public, traditional regional suspicions against the insular people had once again flared to life; largely among the Baltic Jews and recently impoverished among the local Poles who were seeking a weak outlet for their frustration. While the Russian state had no particular love of the Hebrews; indeed, the reason they were concentrated so heavily in Poland and Lithuania was past attempts to remove them from the Motherland, the army could ill afford lawlessness just behind its lines or the enrichment of rebellious Poles at the docile community's expense. So, they were to be protected by the Czar's territorial police; pogrom mobs receiving similar punishment to horse theives and murderers if caught with evidence of their crimes under the explicent policy of "Actions against a Jew are to be treated as if they'd been committed against any other loyal subject of the Czar". The order, handed down personally from the national Gendarmes office with the signature of Cheif and former regional governor-general Pytor Shuvalov, only added to the feeling of repression among the locals despite acheiving the desired order.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Hello my Fans!

Welcome to the first real proper author announcement. We've had another solid week of updates, and from this rate I think I can offer up an expected update schedule of two "Chapters"/broader subjects a week, with perhaps the addition of a short vignette or single-entry tangent to give additional insight on the world. In that spirit, I'll start each announcement was a preview of what topics the upcoming week's chapter will cover, followed by a section where I answer your questions and comments, and finally we'll finish with a question posed to you! So, without further ado...

Next Week on From Iron, Blood...

Chapter V: Frankfurter Roast- As the critical date of June 14th arrives, the peace of Europe hangs in the balance as the German Confederation meets to discuss weather or not to aknowledge the integration of Schleswig into Confederation territory and by proxy it's relation to Holstein. Politics play out both on the open floor and behind closed doors as Prussia and Austria try to outmanuver one another for the legal high ground, and the other powers seek to manipulate events to their own advantage. Meanwhile, events in the North drift closer and closer to violence as ambitious minor parties make their moves.

Chapter VI: Abel, Cain, and Brothers Grim- The Fraternal War final breaks out, with the fate of Centeral Europe in the balance. This chapter gives a detailed synopsis of the theatures of this turning point in the history of European diplomacy, the tense negotiations that finally bring about peace, and finishes off with a breif look at how the realignment impacted the neighboring regions in ways that turn the old diplomatic model untenable, leading to the Age of Verpolitica

---

They're getting a little wild now. The Prussian Navy was a negligible force in 1866. Two years before it couldn't stand even against the Danish fleet w/o Austrian help.

Nor was the industry of the Ruhr very far along as yet. German [1] production of steel and pig-iron was only about equal to that of France, and far behind that of Britain. Prussia was the smallest of the great powers, and in no position to dominate anyone.

[1] Excluding Austria.

Never underestimate the ability of like-minded people in large groups to convince themsleves of something. The nationalists, much to the moderate elites' dismay, are psyching themselves up and slipping into the rapture of job mentality.

It seems like Napoleon III might be pulling himself out of the hole he dug himself into in the '50s. The nightmare scenario for Prussia and definitely exactly what Bismark was working so hard to prevent.

There's a distinct possibility that the situation will play out better for France than IOTL, due to the Emperor taking a stance while he's still in somewhat better health/clearee thinkingt, has less immediate and overt opposition domestically, and facing off against a less well-positioned Prussis than he would 4 years later. However, don't count on a France-wank,especially since the harder he pushes the more liable Moscow will be to push back.

Italy's prospects on the other hand...

Does this mean that Nappy has acquiesced in Austria retaining Venetia?

That is hugely unlikely as by all accounts he was quite obsessive on the subject. For their part, the Austrians will never give it up unless they are confident of getting Prussian Silesia in return, which requires a big military victory.

That's an odd claim to make, given from what I've read about France's pre-66 talks with Prussia Napoleon III was persistent on getting Prussian gurantee that they wouldn't oblige Austria to hand over Veneto to Italy in the event the two German powers came to blows. It was really after Austria's defeat and his adoption of a definitive anti-Prussian stance in the face of their meteoric rise with the NGF and exclusion of Austria from German affairs that he tried to put a damper on Vienna's revachism,and that was in no small part due to a desire to align both Italy and Austria ino his anti-Prussian cordain.

Why would there be any such expectation?

Schleswig and Holstein had been united for centuries, and in all likelihood would want to stay tat way. Certainly the German population would be pretty well unanimous for going with Holstein rather than Denmark, ad eve some Danish-speakers might have a sentimental attachment to the old tie between the duchies.

Partially a matter of ignorance/optics, partially one of politics. Remember that people don't have perfect information and depend on mental shorthands and simplifications; Schleswig has a reputation as/is perceived to be the "Danish" of the two Duchies despite the situation on the ground being more complex, and the events in Kolding (both by the opposition elite and Danish Nationalists) make the pro-autonomy sentiment appear stronger than it may be by virtue of being louder. The refugees have also made the Danish cause more visible than the more quiet, content Germans, and the fact it's the Duke Fredrick and the Prussian pushing for the change rather than King Christian and his government gives the impression the former is more pure/up from the people while the later is "Astroturf"

Second, because it's understood that France and Britain (as well as the Scandinavian counteries and other minor regional powers) don't want to see the provinces legally merged, and the magic of getting to manage the plebecite means you can get it to say pretty much whatever you want if you're deciding who gets to vote, how the question is worded, and what options are on the ballot (I analyse and gather survey data and statistics for a living, so i know how easy it is to write manipulative surveys/stack the sample to scew results and to be on the lookout for them). Also, the question isent one of separating the personal union, nessicerily; the centuries long status quo you cite is one where the two Duchies are legally distinct legislatively even if they have the same executive policy, which the prospect of Real Union under a single Constiution threatens. There's always the possibility of continued unity under separate constiution; with the Duke has more power relative to the Diet in Holstein and the Schleswig Folkating being granted greater leeway under it's legal code alongside gurantees of Danish lingustic and cultural supremacy, being floated as a compromise. Indeed, such a stance is what the origional protesting nobility is pushing for.

Think of it like a less extreme version of the Austro-Hungarian Compromise.

---

Now, the question for the audience;

Should I keep the coverage tightly focused on Germany and it's neighbors , or would you like to see enteries on events further afield? If the later, what regions?

 

[Mikestone8]

That's an odd claim to make, given from what I've read about France's pre-66 talks with Prussia Napoleon III was persistent on getting Prussian gurantee that they wouldn't oblige Austria to hand over Veneto to Italy in the event the two German powers came to blows.

Only because Austria had agreed (even before the outbreak of war) to surrender Venetia to him so that *he* could have the kudos of passing it to Italy. That being so he naturally didn't want Prussia to spoil his moment by compelling Austria to hand it over directly. From what I make out there was never any question of Austria keeping it.

Second, because it's understood that France and Britain (as well as the Scandinavian counteries and other minor regional powers) don't want to see the provinces legally merged, and the magic of getting to manage the plebecite means you can get it to say pretty much whatever you want if you're deciding who gets to vote, how the question is worded, and what options are on the ballot (I analyse and gather survey data and statistics for a living, so i know how easy it is to write manipulative surveys/stack the sample to scew results and to be on the lookout for them). Also, the question isent one of separating the personal union, nessicerily; the centuries long status quo you cite is one where the two Duchies are legally distinct legislatively even if they have the same executive policy, which the prospect of Real Union under a single Constiution threatens. There's always the possibility of continued unity under separate constiution; with the Duke has more power relative to the Diet in Holstein and the Schleswig Folkating being granted greater leeway under it's legal code alongside gurantees of Danish lingustic and cultural supremacy, being floated as a compromise. Indeed, such a stance is what the origional protesting nobility is pushing for.

If both duchies are to be ruled by the same man, why would GB or France give a hoot whether they had one legislature or two?

 

[BootOnFace]

The control of wording in plebiscites is incredibly important. Just take a look at the recent referendum on statehood in Puerto Rico. The ruling party wants statehood and the opposition party wants a semi-independent commonwealth with America. So when the referendum came out, the options were:

A. Statehood
B. Status Quo
C. Independence

Notice that the opposition's stance wasn't even on the ballot. Furthermore, the statehood option could win even if over 60% of the population opposed statehood thanks to splitting the anti-statehood vote. Say only 38% voted for statehood. Statehood would still win if the vote ended up 38/36/26.

Most Puerto Rican voters boycotted the vote, but pro-statehood folks still use it as evidence that Puerto Ricans want statehood.


The organizers of a plebiscite in Schleswig-Holstein could do something along the same lines.

 

[Bastiram]

Enjoyed it so far (just noticed it yesterday) I have a few comments on some minor issues (I believe) but I feel like needs correction:

You changed the events that resulted in the 2nd Schleswig-war.

1) You wrote that the Danish king wanted to annex both Schleswig and Holstein (if I remember correctly) while historically it was just Schleswig, it was this that breached the London protocol.

2) Your use of Kolding, Kolding is located in Denmark proper, just on the border, I wonder if the Danish king is okay with this gathering of now armed men.

Suggestions, use either of these cities:

The most likely (IMO):
Slesvig, (Schleswig is the germanised name, the use of Slesvig on Danish site makes sense) Located at the historical Dannevirke, you can have the Slesvigers fortify the position further.
Sønderborg, former ducal seat, prominent city.
Flensborg, the premier city in Slesvig.
The less likely (IMO):
Rendsborg: Rendsborg is now considered part of Holstein, likely also at this time, nonetheless it was once considered a part of Slesvig, furthermore, it is located along the Eider, it is a bold position to take for the "rebels" with it being so close to Kiel, but powerful symbolic.
Ribe, as the map, shows it is part of Denmark proper, but if the Kolding part is intended, Ribe might be a better choice. Once a part of Slesvig, it is the oldest Danish city, so again a powerful symbolic position. it is, however, less ideally situated than the cities lying along the eastern coast of Slesvig (talking communication with the rest of Scandinavia)

Personally, I think Slesvig or Flensborg is the most likely options, being either the biggest(Flensborg) or most symbolic (Slesvig) with both the Dannevirke located there and being the city which the duchy takes it name from.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

@Bastiram

As this is a well thought out point and its so early in the week, I felt it deserved a response now rather than waiting until next Thursday.

While your suggestions are certainly very much appreciated and rational for the government/command of the Slesvig government/rebellion, the conference in Kolding is more of a convention/mass demonstration; the "offical" nobility trying to make a statement of protest and wring concessions of autonomy out of the Duke peacefully, and the nationalist masses organizing/trying to muster domestic and international support, rather than having openly declared themselves in revolt/rebellion. Assembling at a militaristic location and foritifying it, especially within the Duchy proper, would mean throwing into doubt the peaceful nature of their intentions and their actual willingness to compromise to say nothing of drawing the attention of the Prussian army that had, until recently, been running the region under an offical military occupation and still have a strong presence with which to enforce their ally's legitimate authority of the region is seen as resist violently. Indeed, that's the main reason the event is taking place in Denmark; the Prussian authorities would never be willing to tolerate such a hotbed of dissent forming without trying for a crackdown if they could find even a wiff of justification.

Now, when/if the civil disobedience/political protests transform into a rebellion, or the Duchy retains is seperate status via peaceful means, Sonderborg is likely going to be the capital both for its security (being off the mainland) and to present the most legitiment front possible by placing its seat at the Ducial seat (Even a potential republican movement would appreciate the former). But we're not at the stage in events as of yet. As for the Danish perception/reaction to the event... well, that will be covered in the next chapter. Suffice to say though the cause isen't exactly unpopular among either the government or population at large.

 

[Mikestone8]

Incidentally, while on the subject of plebiscites, has anyone yet suggested the Northern (Danish speaking) part of Schleswig getting a vote on return to Denmark?

Nap III is likely to favour this, as he favoured both plebiscites in general and the principle of nationality.

This also impinges on the "one legislature or two" matter, since if Schleswig is reduced to half its former size, there may seem little point in keeping it separate.

 

[Augenis]

It is always better for a sovereign to manage his problems above, than to wait
till they manage themselves from below.
-Czar Alexander II
​

Russia

Strong Russo-Prussian frienship could have some important knock-off effects in Eastern Europe.

For example, do Prussia and Russia cooperate on combating Lithuanian book smugglers, or does Prussia tolerate them like in OTL?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

When this affair is over, the Emperor may do with my head as he pleases. I ask only that, in the meantime, he considers how I made use of it in his service
- Baron Ludwig von Gablenz, on the "Convention Conspiracy" ​

To the many visitors who came to the city during those sweltering, tense days of mid-June it was a small miracle just how well Frankfurt, in stark contrast to the militancy filling the streets of the other German capitals, maintained an air of calm and respectability. Aside from the red-black-gold banner of the Confederation and the number of coaches gathered at the front of the Turn and Taxis Palace, it was difficult to find a sign of the critical business taking place within. For the locals, on the other hand, this was only to be expected: proud of its position as the cradle and continued heart of liberal Pan-Germanism, the Free City saw patriotism as fundamentally Nationalist rather than dynastic in character. Thus, its trust lay with the judgement of the Confederation rather than any loyalty to the Habsburgs or Hohenzollern causes: confident that the spirit of national brotherhood would prevail and lead to a mutually agreeable settlement. Even if the princes were so bone-headed as to pick a fight over some antiquated feudal dispute, they reasoned, the great masses would never go along with it: what better proof was there of that fact than last month's killing of the great warrior-noble warmonger at the hands of a modern German intellectual?

This faith in the unliklyhood of war was shared by many of the Bundestag envoys, though not exactly for the same reasons. The community of delegates was a small, tight knit one; sharing many personal as well as professional connections, and had been receiving constant circulars from their governments updating them on the steps being taken at home to strengthen their negotiating positions. In fact, in their information bubbles most were breathing a sigh of relief from earlier in the year when tensions had seemed much higher. Prussian requests to fundimentally restructure the Confederation and annex the territory of a fellow members state, which had previously been the scheduled matters, were far more serious than the revised question on the status of the Eidar Duchies where on most important details (Primarily the question of rulership, constitutional nature, and the rights of the Estates) there already existed a broad consensus. So, as the assembly was called to order that morning, it was assumed there would be little more to the matter than officially inducting the Holstein appointee, listening to his and Prussia's argument and a briefing of the situation by the Austrian delegation from the occupation administration, and still have more than enough time before lunch to give the official stamp via vote. Based on the balance of faction and the casual conversations of the past week, it was taken as a foregone conclusion that vote would break in favor of the Austrian status quo: recognizing Holstein but not Slesvig as part of the Confederation and smoothly sliding Fredrick into an identical position to that recently vacated by the Danish King.

Only three men came into the assembly pessimistic of that ease. First among them was Karl Friedrich von Savnigy, official representative of the Prussians. A highly experienced ambassador from a family of state servants, he'd been hand-picked by Bismark's foreign ministry (an office he held in addition to his presidency) to replace the former envoy specifically to push the new annexation agenda in the afternoon of the war with Denmark. With that policy still at the heart of his portfolio and having not received new instructions (In the mess of appointing a new Minister-President, the need to fill the other gaps left by Bismark's death seemed to have been lost in the shuffle), von Savnigy couldn't deviate from implementing every tactic he could in pursuit of that goal without technically conducting treason... even if he'd been inclined to.

On this stance he was backed by the provisional envoy of Duke Frederick, Theodor "von" Mommsen. Though having only been appointed and ennobled by his Sovereign via telegram a week before (thus the legal questionability of applying the von honorific) few would dispute his qualifications for the office. Perhaps the most famous native son of Schleswig of his age, Theodor had been a long time advocate of his homeland's German identity and earned great prestige in the literary, academic, and political community: having been a serving member of the Prussian Landtag until renouncing his citizenship in order to repatriate himself to the "redeemed" Duchy. He was also in the perfect position to coordinate the conflicting positions of the parties within the Prussian faction; his connections with his former Liberal party-mates, fellow alumni and academic corespondents from the University of Kiel who were rapidly filling up the ranks of the Holstein administration, and receiving a steady stream of instructions from Berlin which he managed to spin into an internally coherent statement of intentions.

For both these men, nothing short of total unification of the Duchies would do. In von Savigny's case this was for accomplishing his government's goals in getting the most influence over the region as possible and concessions for a Eidar canal as a vital step on the road to German unification. Von Mommsen's motivation was more personal, knowing that autonomy for Schleswig would result in a privlaged position for the Danes in his home country and scuttle the possibility for introducing an enlightened Constiution in either region by strengthening the power of the Conservative landowners in both. The third dissenting voice, however, would prove the most disruptive and unusual: standing out not for his willingness to accept war but rather a desire to makemake peace last by establishing a settlement that insured a balance between Prussian and Austrian power.

Baron Ludwig von Gablenz, acting governor of the Austrian administration in Holstein, had been working in tandem with his brother Anton to separately convince Berlin and Vienna to adopt their plan for ending the occupation and settling the question of command authority over Confederation troops the 2nd Schleswig-Holstein war had brought to light. By getting both nations to come to negotiations with similar proposals he'd intended to get them to order the armies to stand down before the inevitable nervous private in a standoff lead to bloodshed and escalation into a shooting war. Bismark's refusal to gurantee Vienna's territories in Veneto, on the grounds the legally-distinct Kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia wasn't part of the Confederation, had frustrated his initiative and left the proposal on the verge of total rejection when he'd been gunned down. Since then, however, his fortunes had completely turned. Prussian troops in Holstein had taken a much less confrontational stance under Von Werther, allowing Ludwig to manage a more less peaceful withdrawal of his men into the fortess of Altona after getting over the initial shock. Prussian recognition of the Augustenburg claimants removed the dynastic element from the equation and aligned with the Gablenz proposal of the region as a separate, unified state. Most important, however, was there was now something Prussia was asking for that Austria was in a position to provide. Coming to Frankfurt to give a report on the regional military situation (on the grounds the occupation had been a Confederation mandate), he informed Anton of his intentions to leverage the authority of Austria, as the presiding executive and thus in charge of organizing the agenda schedule, to start the session with a proposal to integrate Venetia as a member kingdom of the Confederation. The Baron insured his brother that if he could convince the Prussian ambassador to provide the support needed to pass that measure, Franz Joseph's government could be made to believe that he'd convinced King Whilhelm to accept a straight tit-for-tat: security and integration for Venice in exchange for a similar settlement in Schleswig. There was the small problem that neither side had directly agreed to any such thing, or their proposal at large, but with the peace in Europe on the line and the result being one that gave everybody what they wanted: a window to the Baltic and satisfied client for Berlin, security in the south and the groundwork to further centeralize Imperial society for Vienna, a united nation for Kiel, and an international order in which neither German great power had the decisive advantage to force it's domination over them for the Trias states such minor transgressions could surely be forgiven...

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[FillyofDelphi]

Incidentally, while on the subject of plebiscites, has anyone yet suggested the Northern (Danish speaking) part of Schleswig getting a vote on return to Denmark?

Nap III is likely to favour this, as he favoured both plebiscites in general and the principle of nationality.

This also impinges on the "one legislature or two" matter, since if Schleswig is reduced to half its former size, there may seem little point in keeping it separate.

Among the German states? No; while there may be disagreement as to weather or not Schleswig ought to be made a member of the Confederation or not, or if it should legally be merged with Holstein, there isen't a one among them who at this point dosen't recognize the rights of the Augustenborgs as the Danish royal house offically renouced their rights in the peace treaty of 64. That's not to say they'd oppose the idea if it were introduced, though.

Strong Russo-Prussian frienship could have some important knock-off effects in Eastern Europe.

For example, do Prussia and Russia cooperate on combating Lithuanian book smugglers, or does Prussia tolerate them like in OTL?

Detailed coverage of evolving Russo-Prussian relations, of course, is a continuing subject of the thread and will be revealed over time. Suffice to say, though, life won't be good for those opposing the conservative order in Eastern Europe.
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[FillyofDelphi]

Austria: In the name and authority of his Imperial and Royal Apastolic Majesty Franz Joseph I, Head of the Presiding Power, I hereby call this meeting of the Deligates of these Confederated States to order. May God bless these proceedings

All: Here here.

Austria: The first item on the Agenda, the chair moves to recognize the deligation from the Duchy of Holstein, and to cede the floor to the party so he may present his credentions. Are there any objections

*Suitable period of silence*

Austria: Let the record reflect that the Confederation universally recognizes the authority of the Holstein delegate. On those grounds, the honorable envoy has the floor.

Von Mommsen (Holstein): My government expresses its most heartfelt thanks to the members of this confederation for their invaluable assistance in restoring to its rightful authority ancient Germanic estates of Holstein and Schleswig. May that which has joined never again be separated.

Hamburg: I wish to address the floor.

Austria: The chair recognizes the representative of the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg

Hamburg: We wish to inquire if, as a matter of course, the new government of Holstein would formally swear an oath to uphold the Federative Constiution before participating in official business?

Holstein: I would be only too happy.

Hamburg: Would the preciding minister administer the oath?

Austria: Does his Majesty, the Duke of Holstein, pledge to recognize the solum compact of the Federative Constiution of Germany; to abide by it's terms and the legitimate dictates of this consul, to provide for the common defense of and gurantee the perpetual peace between it's members ?

Holstein: By the power vested in me, I swear in the name of my Sovergein, Duke Fredrick of Schleswig-Holstein.

Saxony: Point of Order! The Confederation recognises the existence of no such nation.

Austria: Point taken. Von Mommsen, your oath cant be registered unless it's done under a recognized name. I ask for you compliance.

Holstein: ... Im only empowered to act under my government's official title.

Von Savigny (Prussia): The Kingdom of Prussia would like to make a motion for the recognition of the Duchy of Schleswig-Holstien, as legitimate successor to the Duchies of Holstein and Schleswig in their entirety.

Oldenburgs: I second that motion

Bavaria: Objection on grounds of redudecy. A motion to recognize these territories as part of the Confederation is already on the agenda.

*Disorderly speech from multiple parties*

Austria: Objection sustained and motion denied. Prussia's concerns will be addressed when we come to that point in the schedule. In that case, we'll move to the second item: the statement on the military situation on the Baltic. Commander of Confederate forces Ludwig von Gablenz has the floor.

Von Gablenz: I regret to inform you of a sharp uptick in activity among the northern military districts over the past month, much of it to our disadvantage. Apart from the Austrian contribution under my own command, the concentration of German troops throughout the region has dropped as they strategically redeploy over the countryside of Prussia, the Occupied Regions, and Hannover even as more paramilitaries assemble in Jutland with the stated intention of moving into Schleswig if their demands are not met.

Mecklenberg-Schwerin: Has the Danish government responded to our petition to extradite or disperse the conspiring nobility?

von Gablenz: Copanhegan has yet to issue a response, though there are reports of army troops being moved into the region for the purpose of maintaining order.

Holstein: These rebels have made it clear they intend to attack my country. Surely you intend to respond?

Von Gablenz: The Confederation is under no obligation to defend lands outside her mandate and borders, Von Mommsen. I won't suggest such a course of action without the approval the Diet

Bavaria: I believe I speak for the broader spirit of this assembly when I say we don't intend anything of that nature.

*Broad acclamation*

Austria: Speaking of which, the next item on the agenda is a motion to expand the mandate of the Confederation to include the possessions of the Austrian Empire in the Kingdom of Lombardy-Veneto...

Prussia: My King denounces this vote on the grounds it is unprecedented and almost certainly a violation of Confederate law!

von Gablenz: Is the record to reflect that it is the official stance of the Confederation that the assembly doesn't have the legal authority to expand it's borders?

Prussia: ... the Kingdom of Prussia withdraws its denunction.

Austria: Then in my role as representative of the Austrian Empire, allow me to present my government's case. As the economies of the Germanies have grown both in size and connectiveness and the breath of our commerce expands,it's become painfully obvious that in order to insure the security of the ships flying Germanic flags and carrying their goods. Under commonly recognized laws of the sea, a ship is considered Sovergein territory of it's state of origin and so a legitimate subject for collective security. For this purpose, and with the precident established in the Reichsflotte and the oppritunities provided by Kiel, my government hopes to lay the groundwork for Confederate joint naval assets to protect our commerce just as the common fortresses protect our exterior borders.

While the territories of the Augustenburgs provide the suitable sites on the Baltic and North Seas, especially if incorperated under a common legal framework, the project can't be considered without a suitable matching port on the Mediterranean. I'm sure I don't need to detail how history and geography make Venice the most efficent and defendable choice, and could also regain it's former role as a great center of trade if given security and entered into the broader German economy. Our members who lack a coastline will also gain the oppritunuty to real their share of the influence and markets of Africa and the East through being granted this window to the outside world. Certainly, such advantages are worth the modest cost of common defense.

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Voting Results

For the motion: 13 votes
Against the motion: 3 votes
Abstained: 1 vote

The motion passes: The Kingdom of Veneta, consisting of the crownlands territories of Habsburgs Lombardy-Veneto, are henceforth to be considered a member of the German Confederation