Update
Extract from “Days of Reckoning – the General Election of 2009” by Katherine Elliott, published London, 2011
Alastair Darling’s Budget, delivered on March 24th, contained few surprises. Darling gave as upbeat an appraisal of economic prospects as he felt able given the considerable gloom purveying the markets which had revisited their November 2008 lows in the previous fortnight. Details of bank capitalisation schemes meant little to most voters and most experts were sceptical of what appeared to be over-optimistic forecasts for growth in the latter part of 2009 and early 2010.
Indeed, the purpose of the Budget was less a pre-election giveaway which the straitened economic circumstances precluded but a re-assertion of Labour’s claim to economic management which had been severely dented by the Panic of the previous autumn. However, while Darling could point, with some degree of credit, to his participation in international actions which had done much to prevent a similar outbreak in the future, little of this had any impact on hard-pressed voters and especially savers whose incomes had been rendered worthless by the collapse in interest rates and by retailers who had endured a difficult Christmas after a disastrous autumn.
The G20 Summit, held a week or so after the Budget, was again part of the re-affirmation (as Peter Mandelson saw it) of Britain and Tony Blair’s pivotal role on the global stage but there were unmistakeable signs that, despite the well-choreographed activities, the international balance had shifted and not in Britain’s favour.
There was a distinct froideur in the relationship between President Obama and Prime Minister Blair. The incoming administration had made little secret of its wariness given Blair’s relationship with former President Bush and while Downing Street argued, with some justification, that Blair had get on famously with Bill Clinton, the dynamic of the relationship with Obama was very different. Indeed, Obama found himself more in tune with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel while the presence of the leaders of the BRIC economies as they were known (Brazil, Russia, India and China) suggested the global economic order was changing and that Europe was being marginalised in favour of the Pacific.
Nonetheless, the saturation coverage enjoyed by the Prime Minister seemed to have had the desired effect and a series of weekend polls suggested Labour had poached a small but handy lead (the leads varied from 1% in the BPIX Mail on Sunday poll to a 5% lead from ComRes in the Independent on Sunday). The poll numbers were enough to suggest Labour would be returned but with a reduced majority of 30-50 seats.
On that basis, the Prime Minister went to Altmore Junior School in East Ham on Tuesday April 7th and announced to a bemused audience of children and teachers that he would be going to the Palce that afternoon to seek a dissolution. The Prime Minister’s message was essentially “trust in Labour to see us through the crisis”. It was, as more than one observer pointed out, eerily reminiscent of John Major’s appeal in 1992.
The Conservatives had long prepared plans to fight the campaign and poster sites had been booked in advance. Party Chairman Boris Johnson sent a rallying email to his army of candidates and Chris Grayling and his Shadow Cabinet were soon taking to the airwaves. The same was true of Liberal Democrat leader Chris Huhne and his colleagues. Neither Grayling nor Huhne had been able to wholly convince the electorate of their credentials as potential Prime Ministers but both were able to gain ground by concerted attacks on the Government’s record.
With Easter at hand, there was little practical campaigning to be done during the rest of the week but behind the scenes, there were significant events developing.
Attempts to obtain details of MPs expenses had been made since early 2008 when a number of Freedom of Information Requests had been made. Initially, the House of Commons authorities had refused these claiming the requests were “unfairly intrusive” but in April 2008, the Information Commissioner had ruled that expenses claims should be published in full. The House of Commons had done nothing about this and one of the staff managed to obtain the full unedited details of expenses from 2005 and had passed them to the Daily Telegraph.
The newspaper’s Deputy Editor, Tony Gallagher, who would ironically be one of the victims of the scandal, was instrumental in getting the details published. He decided the first day of full campaigning would be the best time to start, derailing primarily the launch of the Labour campaign.
Rumours began to circulate over the Easter weekend of a “massive” story to
be in the Telegraph on Sunday but Easter Sunday passed without incident leaving many around Westminster (and most had gone away to campaign in constituencies) confused and concerned. By Monday evening, it was clear the story was going to break the next morning. One rumour, picked up by the Conservatives, was of a poll putting them in the lead but that was quickly discounted.
By the middle of Monday evening, the shape of the Expenses Scandal was starting to become clear. The Labour Campaign Launch the next morning was completely dominated by it. The Prime Minister who himself had emerged unscathed from the details, found himself having to defend Cabinet colleagues and the likes of Lord Mandelson from questions about their expenses.
Extract from “Days of Reckoning – the General Election of 2009” by Katherine Elliott, published London, 2011
Alastair Darling’s Budget, delivered on March 24th, contained few surprises. Darling gave as upbeat an appraisal of economic prospects as he felt able given the considerable gloom purveying the markets which had revisited their November 2008 lows in the previous fortnight. Details of bank capitalisation schemes meant little to most voters and most experts were sceptical of what appeared to be over-optimistic forecasts for growth in the latter part of 2009 and early 2010.
Indeed, the purpose of the Budget was less a pre-election giveaway which the straitened economic circumstances precluded but a re-assertion of Labour’s claim to economic management which had been severely dented by the Panic of the previous autumn. However, while Darling could point, with some degree of credit, to his participation in international actions which had done much to prevent a similar outbreak in the future, little of this had any impact on hard-pressed voters and especially savers whose incomes had been rendered worthless by the collapse in interest rates and by retailers who had endured a difficult Christmas after a disastrous autumn.
The G20 Summit, held a week or so after the Budget, was again part of the re-affirmation (as Peter Mandelson saw it) of Britain and Tony Blair’s pivotal role on the global stage but there were unmistakeable signs that, despite the well-choreographed activities, the international balance had shifted and not in Britain’s favour.
There was a distinct froideur in the relationship between President Obama and Prime Minister Blair. The incoming administration had made little secret of its wariness given Blair’s relationship with former President Bush and while Downing Street argued, with some justification, that Blair had get on famously with Bill Clinton, the dynamic of the relationship with Obama was very different. Indeed, Obama found himself more in tune with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel while the presence of the leaders of the BRIC economies as they were known (Brazil, Russia, India and China) suggested the global economic order was changing and that Europe was being marginalised in favour of the Pacific.
Nonetheless, the saturation coverage enjoyed by the Prime Minister seemed to have had the desired effect and a series of weekend polls suggested Labour had poached a small but handy lead (the leads varied from 1% in the BPIX Mail on Sunday poll to a 5% lead from ComRes in the Independent on Sunday). The poll numbers were enough to suggest Labour would be returned but with a reduced majority of 30-50 seats.
On that basis, the Prime Minister went to Altmore Junior School in East Ham on Tuesday April 7th and announced to a bemused audience of children and teachers that he would be going to the Palce that afternoon to seek a dissolution. The Prime Minister’s message was essentially “trust in Labour to see us through the crisis”. It was, as more than one observer pointed out, eerily reminiscent of John Major’s appeal in 1992.
The Conservatives had long prepared plans to fight the campaign and poster sites had been booked in advance. Party Chairman Boris Johnson sent a rallying email to his army of candidates and Chris Grayling and his Shadow Cabinet were soon taking to the airwaves. The same was true of Liberal Democrat leader Chris Huhne and his colleagues. Neither Grayling nor Huhne had been able to wholly convince the electorate of their credentials as potential Prime Ministers but both were able to gain ground by concerted attacks on the Government’s record.
With Easter at hand, there was little practical campaigning to be done during the rest of the week but behind the scenes, there were significant events developing.
Attempts to obtain details of MPs expenses had been made since early 2008 when a number of Freedom of Information Requests had been made. Initially, the House of Commons authorities had refused these claiming the requests were “unfairly intrusive” but in April 2008, the Information Commissioner had ruled that expenses claims should be published in full. The House of Commons had done nothing about this and one of the staff managed to obtain the full unedited details of expenses from 2005 and had passed them to the Daily Telegraph.
The newspaper’s Deputy Editor, Tony Gallagher, who would ironically be one of the victims of the scandal, was instrumental in getting the details published. He decided the first day of full campaigning would be the best time to start, derailing primarily the launch of the Labour campaign.
Rumours began to circulate over the Easter weekend of a “massive” story to
be in the Telegraph on Sunday but Easter Sunday passed without incident leaving many around Westminster (and most had gone away to campaign in constituencies) confused and concerned. By Monday evening, it was clear the story was going to break the next morning. One rumour, picked up by the Conservatives, was of a poll putting them in the lead but that was quickly discounted.
By the middle of Monday evening, the shape of the Expenses Scandal was starting to become clear. The Labour Campaign Launch the next morning was completely dominated by it. The Prime Minister who himself had emerged unscathed from the details, found himself having to defend Cabinet colleagues and the likes of Lord Mandelson from questions about their expenses.
