Will there be a special presidential election held in 1974? Awaiting the 1974 midterms and 1976 will be a Democratic sweep on the scale of OTL 1964.
Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72
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I don't think there'll be a special election, RB. Under these circumstances, everyone concerned is painfully anxious to cross every T and dot every I in the Constitution, and there's no provision whatever that I know of in the Constitution for a special election under these circumstances. If it was attempted, it's entirely possible that such a proceeding could be deemed unconstitutional. No, I think President Gavin is going to serve out the remainder of the term to January 20, 1977.
Agreed about '74 and '76, though. The backlash is going to make OTL '74, and '36 and '64, seem like love-taps. It could be nearly as bad as the Canadian election - was it '88? - in which the PC's were almost literally annihilated from Parliament (I remember how shocked I was when I heard about that).
I wonder what happened to Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bork. I imagine that some people must be demanding their arrest right about now.
Agreed about '74 and '76, though. The backlash is going to make OTL '74, and '36 and '64, seem like love-taps. It could be nearly as bad as the Canadian election - was it '88? - in which the PC's were almost literally annihilated from Parliament (I remember how shocked I was when I heard about that).
I wonder what happened to Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bork. I imagine that some people must be demanding their arrest right about now.
That election was 1993, but had nothing to do with illegalities. 
Here's hoping that Reagan will come in, but more likely a liberal Democrat.
Here's hoping that Reagan will come in, but more likely a liberal Democrat. If I read the 1947 Presidential Act correctly, James Gavin remains Acting President until Agnew's term would have ended on January 20, 1977. As this is uncharted water, someone could challenge it in court.
No, the operative law is the 25th Amendment, ratified already in 1967, which established the current line of Presidential succession. Please note that James Gavin has been sworn in not as acting President, but as President, period.
Thanks joea64; I intended to include "and the 25th Amendment" in my response. My point is, as you also noted, Gavin's term in office will end on 1-20-77.
Thande
Donor
Good update. So the world backs away from disaster at last.
Is Gavin considered to be a Democratic President or an independent, considering the unorthodox way he was propelled there?
The only bit I find a little bit odd is that Agnew doesn't seem to have got any public sympathy for his daughter being murdered by terrorists...
Is Gavin considered to be a Democratic President or an independent, considering the unorthodox way he was propelled there?
The only bit I find a little bit odd is that Agnew doesn't seem to have got any public sympathy for his daughter being murdered by terrorists...
I think with President Gavin, I think he identified his party as the Democrats but I don't think on Ideological grounds but rather in a Eisenhower/Powell like Fashion...He feels like since they in effect gave him his jobs(Jack appointed him French Ambassador in the 60's), he feels loyalty to them in the regard. But I imagine President Gavin as being very caretakerish in terms of Domestic Policy, leaving it up to his cabinent and congress to make major decisions.
Well his first priority after de-esclating relations with the Soviets, and getting the Israelis to pull out of Syria
, is to reinsure the Presidential line of succession. He needs a Vice President, and one rather quickly lol. I think he's best bet would be to pick 1972 Vice Presidential Nominee, Senator Birch Bayh of Indiana. Since the Democrats did technically with the popular vote, It could be seen as a way to legitmize the Gavin Legitmize as having the will of the people. Can't wait to see what you come up with next DrewI did have one of the memoirs briefly address that; Ford's I think. The idea was suggested but then they decided it would be too soon after all the political upheaval of 1973. I think they would want to allow a cooling off period after what has been a very intense year (the 1972 Presidential election didn't technically end until September 1973) and give Gavin an opportunity to act as a caretaker and allow things to become more normal. The next election will be 1974 mid-terms, which will be divisive enough in light of what has happened. The next Presidential will be 1976.
Lord Grattan said:
Technically, under the 1947 act James Gavin is an acting President; however it was considered important in light of the events to make him a full President once Agnew was removed. While this may stretch the law, and may be subject to scholarly debate, the distinction between acting President and President will not have sufficient legal weight to challenge his authority in court. (Unless someone wants to argue that an acting President can't name a Vice President under the 25th amendment, that could get messy). Either way, Gavin will be President until January 20, 1977.
James Gavin was historically identified with the Democratic Party up until 1964 because he had served as Ambassador to France from 1961-1962 and he served as an adviser to President Kennedy on the development of the Peace Corps. However, he broke with LBJ over Vietnam very early on and was largely frozen out of the party at that point. Gavin's arguments at the time included keeping ground troops out of Vietnam and building up the South Vietnamese Army and Air Force so they could do the job on their own.
He supported Governor John Volpe of Massachusetts and Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts (both moderate Republicans) and he supported first Romney then Nixon in 1968. He had hoped Nixon would use what he wrote in his book Crisis Now (1968) as a blueprint, and there are some parts of his theories on Vietnam and the domestic problems that loosely resemble what Nixon eventually did.
Right now, in the aftermath of the removal of Agnew, he is trying to appear as non-partisan as possible. He is the first to acknowledge that his ascendancy to the Presidency has been very unorthodox, and he doesn't want to give any fuel to the idea that he is exploiting Agnew's fall, and Richard Nixon's legal problems, for partisan advantage.
At the moment he wants to solve the crisis and move on, and restore honor to the Presidency following a President who was driven from office by the failure of his Vietnam Policy (Johnson), one who is being exposed as a criminal (Nixon) and one who arrogantly tried to sweep aside his own his own criminality (Agnew), and became the first ever in American history to be removed. The Presidency James Gavin inherits is a very troubled institution, and his job is to try and restore it, a hard enough job.
Thande said:
Yes he did back in June, and that carried him up until August, when he pardoned himself. The general public is still largely unaware of his simplistic view of foreign policy, except for what Agnew himself said in speeches (repeatedly drawing over-simplified parallels to World War II for complex Cold War situations). His cynical act of pardoning himself and his main co-conspirators, together with a worsening economy and the mess in Vietnam, is what sunk him, sympathy over the murder of his daughter notwithstanding, or fading as things got worse.
joea64 said:
They're definitely going to lie low for a while. Whether they committed any actual crimes is a subject for debate, much of what they did was provide counsel to the President. It could be that the Gavin Administration may avoid looking to closely into that because the last thing they want to do is keep the Agnew controversy alive one minute longer than is absolutely necessary. Besides, once the immediate crisis passes, Gavin is going to have enough trouble governing in a Depression, and he is going to have to wrestle with what to do about Richard Nixon's prosecution. Enough problems that he doesn't need to go looking for more.
Historico said:
Bayh is the last man standing from the 1972 election, and as such has a certain cache as a Vice Presidential candidate, not least because the manner in which Spiro Agnew re-elected himself Vice President in January 1973 (over Bayh) has been so greatly tainted by all that followed. (Bayh also played a large part in writing the 25th amendment.)
But, let's throw the floor open. Does anyone else have any candidates for the list? (Sorry RB, RFK is dead)
. The Vice President has to be someone confirmable, who is going to be charged with re-building the prestige of a damaged executive branch. Divisive or overly partisan figures are decidedly not going to fit that bill.John Farson
Banned
I did have one of the memoirs briefly address that; Ford's I think. The idea was suggested but then they decided it would be too soon after all the political upheaval of 1973. I think they would want to allow a cooling off period after what has been a very intense year (the 1972 Presidential election didn't technically end until September 1973) and give Gavin an opportunity to act as a caretaker and allow things to become more normal. The next election will be 1974 mid-terms, which will be divisive enough in light of what has happened. The next Presidential will be 1976.
Technically, under the 1947 act James Gavin is an acting President; however it was considered important in light of the events to make him a full President once Agnew was removed. While this may stretch the law, and may be subject to scholarly debate, the distinction between acting President and President will not have sufficient legal weight to challenge his authority in court. (Unless someone wants to argue that an acting President can't name a Vice President under the 25th amendment, that could get messy). Either way, Gavin will be President until January 20, 1977.
James Gavin was historically identified with the Democratic Party up until 1964 because he had served as Ambassador to France from 1961-1962 and he served as an adviser to President Kennedy on the development of the Peace Corps. However, he broke with LBJ over Vietnam very early on and was largely frozen out of the party at that point. Gavin's arguments at the time included keeping ground troops out of Vietnam and building up the South Vietnamese Army and Air Force so they could do the job on their own.
He supported Governor John Volpe of Massachusetts and Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts (both moderate Republicans) and he supported first Romney then Nixon in 1968. He had hoped Nixon would use what he wrote in his book Crisis Now (1968) as a blueprint, and there are some parts of his theories on Vietnam and the domestic problems that loosely resemble what Nixon eventually did.
Right now, in the aftermath of the removal of Agnew, he is trying to appear as non-partisan as possible. He is the first to acknowledge that his ascendancy to the Presidency has been very unorthodox, and he doesn't want to give any fuel to the idea that he is exploiting Agnew's fall, and Richard Nixon's legal problems, for partisan advantage.
At the moment he wants to solve the crisis and move on, and restore honor to the Presidency following a President who was driven from office by the failure of his Vietnam Policy (Johnson), one who is being exposed as a criminal (Nixon) and one who arrogantly tried to sweep aside his own his own criminality (Agnew), and became the first ever in American history to be removed. The Presidency James Gavin inherits is a very troubled institution, and his job is to try and restore it, a hard enough job.
Yes he did back in June, and that carried him up until August, when he pardoned himself. The general public is still largely unaware of his simplistic view of foreign policy, except for what Agnew himself said in speeches (repeatedly drawing over-simplified parallels to World War II for complex Cold War situations). His cynical act of pardoning himself and his main co-conspirators, together with a worsening economy and the mess in Vietnam, is what sunk him, sympathy over the murder of his daughter notwithstanding, or fading as things got worse.
They're definitely going to lie low for a while. Whether they committed any actual crimes is a subject for debate, much of what they did was provide counsel to the President. It could be that the Gavin Administration may avoid looking to closely into that because the last thing they want to do is keep the Agnew controversy alive one minute longer than is absolutely necessary. Besides, once the immediate crisis passes, Gavin is going to have enough trouble governing in a Depression, and he is going to have to wrestle with what to do about Richard Nixon's prosecution. Enough problems that he doesn't need to go looking for more.
Bayh is the last man standing from the 1972 election, and as such has a certain cache as a Vice Presidential candidate, not least because the manner in which Spiro Agnew re-elected himself Vice President in January 1973 (over Bayh) has been so greatly tainted by all that followed. (Bayh also played a large part in writing the 25th amendment.)
But, let's throw the floor open. Does anyone else have any candidates for the list? (Sorry RB, RFK is dead)
I too think that Bayh would be the best bet for the vice presidency. As you said, he's the "last man standing" and would have a kind of legitimacy in the job.
And after the mess that Agnew has made of things, and with Nixon exposed as a criminal, do you honestly see the GOP balking at Gavin's possible choice of Bayh? As it is the GOP is utterly tarnished and tainted with the events of the past year, and they must be waiting the '74 midterms with a sense of dread.
Dems: Scoop Jackson, Frank Church, Ed Muskie, Jimmy Carter, Ted Kennedy.
GOP: Reagan.
GOP: Reagan.
I have to disagree with you here RB, Ronnie won't accept the Vice Presidency for the same reasons that Rocky never did. Being a Governor of a Large State, plus already being Household names before even entering office they don't need the office. It was only after 1960, with Tricky Dick's run did the idea of using the Vice Presidency as a launching pad for the nomination become popular.
As far with Republicans...I can see a potential opening here. Drew said that Gavin was a big supporter of Volpe and Brooke's campaigns in the 1960's. What if Gavin nominates Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts as the first African American Vice President of the United States? Allthough most of the Democrats will probably be pissed that he didn't pick one of them. I doubt most of the Democratic and Republican Senators outside of the South will stand in the way of such a history-making pick. He won reelection in '72 with over 60% of the Vote, and IOTL was a vocal opponent of most of Nixon's domestic policies and was the first to call for his resignation IOTL.
With all this being said...Brooke could be simmirlary appealing to President Gavin the same way Senator Lieberman was to Vice President Gore in 2000 IOTL. And to be honest he's one of the best choices we can get to an African American into the White House untill atleast the 90's with Powell...
As far with Republicans...I can see a potential opening here. Drew said that Gavin was a big supporter of Volpe and Brooke's campaigns in the 1960's. What if Gavin nominates Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts as the first African American Vice President of the United States? Allthough most of the Democrats will probably be pissed that he didn't pick one of them. I doubt most of the Democratic and Republican Senators outside of the South will stand in the way of such a history-making pick. He won reelection in '72 with over 60% of the Vote, and IOTL was a vocal opponent of most of Nixon's domestic policies and was the first to call for his resignation IOTL.
With all this being said...Brooke could be simmirlary appealing to President Gavin the same way Senator Lieberman was to Vice President Gore in 2000 IOTL. And to be honest he's one of the best choices we can get to an African American into the White House untill atleast the 90's with Powell...
Historico: I didn't say Reagan would be Veep, but the GOP's 1976 nominee. He's their only hope.
John Farson
Banned
We're forgetting that there is one important thing that President Gavin may very well do in 1974-75: replacing Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas. OTL Douglas suffered a debilitating stroke on December 31st 1974, which eventually led to his retirement on November 12th 1975, being then replaced by John Paul Stevens. Here, even if his stroke is somehow butterflied away, the fact remains that he will have been on the bench since 1939 and was willing to retire since the unsuccessful attempt to impeach him in 1970. So Gavin might be under pressure to nominate someone who doesn't piss off either liberals or conservatives.
Agreed. RR is about the only realistic GOP candidate out there. I don't think anyone else is really going to run against him more than symbolically. The question is, will Reagan want to run in a year in which he's very likely to lose, not so much because of any fault in himself but because the electorate is in such an anti-GOP mood in general? Then again, I may be underestimating the forgiving mood of the American public; less than two and a half years after Nixon resigned OTL, Ford came within an ace of being elected in his own right (I wonder if he might have squeaked through if he hadn't bobbled that Poland answer in the debates).
I like the idea of Brooke as Gavin's VP, if Brooke is willing to leave his seat in Massachusetts. For that matter, I wonder if the prospects for the Rockefeller wing of the GOP will be better in the long run in this TL; with Rumsfeld and Cheney in disgrace, and a shadow over George Bush the elder because of his service under Agnew, the neoconservative movement might never really get off the ground TTL (questionable whether GWB will even enter politics).
SCOTUS, replacing Douglas: I'm not sure myself. It'd probably have to be a centrist jurist.
Colin Powell and "Gunfighter" Emerson (one of my favorite figures in Powell's OTL bio, a genuine character!) will certainly have a future ahead of them in the military. Possibly Emerson may end up Army COS or even CJCS, if he can help extricate us from the Vietnam mess - that's going to be a highly urgent priority for Gavin. Gavin, BTW, as an illustrious WWII hero, will have a lot of street cred with the armed forces. I should think he's going to schedule an urgent meeting with Emerson (with Powell in tow) to discuss what to do next in Vietnam.
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I think Reagan will win, by a middling margin as well. None of the Democrats can beat Reagan.
Not even Scoop Jackson? He's probably the most conservative Democrat available in '76.
I personally think that for Reagan to maximize his '76 chances, he's going to have to differentiate himself as sharply from the Nixon-Agnew era as possible. Then again, every Republican who has any hopes of having a future national political career will be shoving away the whole Nixon/Agnew (well, more Agnew than Nixon) mess as far as possible from themselves. Rumsfeld and Cheney are so done that calling them "toast" ain't even in it. Haig's through as well.
(R) Ronald W. Reagan/ Richard S. Schweiker: 341 EV, 54.7%
(D) Henry M. Jackson/ Ernest F. Hollings: 197 EV, 45.3%
Incumbent President: James Gavin (I)
President-elect: Ronald Reagan (R)
John Farson said:
No question their goose is cooked right now. They are in for a rebuilding period, which could lead to some more in-fighting within the party.
Historico said:
Brooke was on my short list as well, however given the nature of Gavin's caretaker Presidency, and with all that is going on, he may not be in a position to be that historic with his VP choice, although Brooke could make the Administration truly bi-partisan (if Gavin is seen as a Democrat). Keep in mind Gavin's main criteria is competence, not politics. He's looking to rebuild the Presidency first and foremost. Picking Brooke might be a gamble and a time when he doesn't want a political fight, on the other hand it could be a symbol of national progress at a time when so much that is unpleasant has happened.
But there's a big skeleton in his closet too:
wikipedia said:
Brooke and Bayh are on the short list. Ted Kennedy and Ronald Reagan are too closely associated with the liberal and conservative wings of their respective parties, they go against the bi-partisan approach Gavin is trying to fashion. I don't either would take the job; both will be looking toward 1976 as an opportunity, though Reagan's party has a big challenge in front of it.
John Frason said:
Trust me, I haven't forgotten. Gavin will have to thread the needle between the two, but this will also give him a chance to do something historic with the Court. But that comes at the end of 1975.
joea64 said:
Depends upon how his service under Gavin goes. IOTL Bush 41 served as UN Ambassador and RNC Chair under Nixon, but survived the fall of Nixon. In this TL he's got Gavin's confidence, which will give him the chance to redeem any questions about his service under Agnew. GHW Bush ITTL is not finished yet.
Question is will Reagan run? IOTL Ford just barely defeated Reagan for the nomination in 1976, in part because of a tactical mistake Reagan made at the convention. Ford went on to lose against Carter by a whisker because his pardoning of Nixon tied him to Watergate. But ITTL there are two disgraced Republican Presidents, which the Democrats will have a field day with. Plus the economy is doing much worse than OTL 1973-76. And there's a new Vietnam mess to be sorted out that wears Agnew's name. I'm not sure a resurrected Lincoln or Eisenhower would have a favorable chance.
Reagan may use a straw man like Phillip Crane or Jack Kemp to pull the party to the right, even if the 1976 ticket looses. This gives him a base for a run in 1980. Reagan may instead seek a third term as Governor of California (then still possible) or sit out 1976 as a party elder statesman.
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