Fact checking - central powers and oil 1st WW

[Miss Construction]

I'm working on an ATL where Gallipoli succeeds, the Ottomans fall, Bulgaria stays out and Romania isn't conquered. It occurred to me that this raises the issue of oil.

I checked online (my library is 500 km away) as far as I could. I found only one reference, this stated that Romania was the CPs only source of oil. Further checking indicates that while there was a pilot coal liquefaction plant under construction in Germany, it wasn't completed until 1919.

So just checking, do the CPs have any domestic sources of oil and how long could they theoretically last without it?

 

[MichaelWest]

Austro-Hungary had oil located near Drohobych and Boryslav in Galicia. From the Wikipedia: By 1909, production reached its peak at 2,076,000 tons or 4% of worldwide production. Often called the "Polish Baku", the oil fields of Borysław and nearby Tustanowice accounted for over 90% of the national oil output of the Austria-Hungary Empire. At the turn of the century, Galicia was ranked fourth in the world as an oil producer. This significant increase in oil production also caused a slump in oil prices. A very rapid decrease in oil production in Galicia occurred just before the Balkan conflicts. I believe this was overrun by Russia early and the CP had to then rely on Romania.

 

[CaliGuy]

Austro-Hungary had oil located near Drohobych and Boryslav in Galicia. From the Wikipedia: By 1909, production reached its peak at 2,076,000 tons or 4% of worldwide production. Often called the "Polish Baku", the oil fields of Borysław and nearby Tustanowice accounted for over 90% of the national oil output of the Austria-Hungary Empire. At the turn of the century, Galicia was ranked fourth in the world as an oil producer. This significant increase in oil production also caused a slump in oil prices. A very rapid decrease in oil production in Galicia occurred just before the Balkan conflicts. I believe this was overrun by Russia early and the CP had to then rely on Romania.

So, would the CPs have run out of oil had Romania not capitulated in 1917?

 

[MichaelWest]

So, would the CPs have run out of oil had Romania not capitulated in 1917?

So far I do not have good data on CP consumption but my guess is that they were running thin on oil by end of war, but luckily it was far less essential in that era but still vital. From what I can tell the Romanian fields were destroyed in 1915 and only in 1918 were the Germans were able to repair the oil fields around Ploiesti and by the end of the war had pumped a million tons of oil according to Wikipedia.

 

[Miss Construction]

So far I do not have good data on CP consumption but my guess is that they were running thin on oil by end of war, but luckily it was far less essential in that era but still vital. From what I can tell the Romanian fields were destroyed in 1915 and only in 1918 were the Germans were able to repair the oil fields around Ploiesti and by the end of the war had pumped a million tons of oil according to Wikipedia.

Yeah not as important, but still damn hard to run an airwar or U-boat campaign without it. Definitely looks like a factor that needs to be taken into account though.

 

[Miss Construction]

So, would the CPs have run out of oil had Romania not capitulated in 1917?

Wooo hoooo found this
https://firstworldwarhiddenhistory....story-of-oil-7-why-the-flow-continued-to-run/

Looks like Germany would last maybe six weeks without oil in the Great War.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Wooo hoooo found this
https://firstworldwarhiddenhistory....story-of-oil-7-why-the-flow-continued-to-run/

Looks like Germany would last maybe six weeks without oil in the Great War.

The tone of this article reads as a little bit "illuminati banking-industrialist conspiracy" to be honest.

 

[Miss Construction]

The tone of this article reads as a little bit "illuminati banking-industrialist conspiracy" to be honest.

Yeah, I did notice. I was soley interested in the quotes that gave how long the CP could last without oil. Not the conspiracy bit. Since the quotes are historical, I think they're useful lol.

 

[MichaelWest]

In the era leading to world war one, oil was predominately desired for Kerosene (used for lighting) and lubricating oils, replacing whale oil. Gasoline was used in automobiles and aircraft but was also used heavily in trucks, diesel was not yet significant, instead it was being used mostly in stationary engines for industrial uses. However it was important to the submarine arm who found diesels both compact and powerful enough. Fuel oil was just beginning to become a significant fuel source for naval engines on the eve of war, the RN leading the way, but all but a few German ships burn coal, experiments in spraying fuel oil on coal to increase its burn was in the mix. I am unaware of significant chemical uses as plastics have not yet emerged in a big way.

In this era refining was rather crude and oil yields a mix of products that are fairly set, thus you got gasoline and diesel as you refined but you could do very little to bias it for more or less. I believe refiners were limited to natural gasoline present in the oil, around 80 octane, relatively potent then but low power compared to what we see today. So you can assume that each user is not in competition with another, the Navy wants diesel and the air force wants gasoline, the refinery yields both in relatively fixed quantity per ton of oil. By WW2 this is no longer the case as technology in refining had advanced. But if you are planning for the logistics of the CP I hope this broad brushing gives you some help.

 

[Miss Construction]

In the era leading to world war one, oil was predominately desired for Kerosene (used for lighting) and lubricating oils, replacing whale oil. Gasoline was used in automobiles and aircraft but was also used heavily in trucks, diesel was not yet significant, instead it was being used mostly in stationary engines for industrial uses. However it was important to the submarine arm who found diesels both compact and powerful enough. Fuel oil was just beginning to become a significant fuel source for naval engines on the eve of war, the RN leading the way, but all but a few German ships burn coal, experiments in spraying fuel oil on coal to increase its burn was in the mix. I am unaware of significant chemical uses as plastics have not yet emerged in a big way.

In this era refining was rather crude and oil yields a mix of products that are fairly set, thus you got gasoline and diesel as you refined but you could do very little to bias it for more or less. I believe refiners were limited to natural gasoline present in the oil, around 80 octane, relatively potent then but low power compared to what we see today. So you can assume that each user is not in competition with another, the Navy wants diesel and the air force wants gasoline, the refinery yields both in relatively fixed quantity per ton of oil. By WW2 this is no longer the case as technology in refining had advanced. But if you are planning for the logistics of the CP I hope this broad brushing gives you some help.

So as I see it, the biggest issues of lack of oil are that it's firstly going to bring the U-boats to a grinding halt and ground the airforces. The lack of subs seems the biggest. The lack of aircraft means the Entente will be able to do recon and the CPs won't. Plus the bombing campaign against London stops, but that's minor.

You also lose trucks and heavy artillery tractors. That's going to affect keeping forces supplied and moving said heavy artillery. While it doesn't look instantly fatal, it is a significant negative factor for the CPs.

Oh I forgot lubricants. Probably the biggest factor actually. You can replace mineral oil with vegetable oil to an extent but it's nowhere near as good. That's going to hit, trains, ships and factories. Decreased mobility and significant production problems. Perhaps not fatal but looks quite crippling on the face of it.

 

[MichaelWest]

So as I see it, the biggest issues of lack of oil are that it's firstly going to bring the U-boats to a grinding halt and ground the airforces. The lack of subs seems the biggest. The lack of aircraft means the Entente will be able to do recon and the CPs won't. Plus the bombing campaign against London stops, but that's minor.

You also lose trucks and heavy artillery tractors. That's going to affect keeping forces supplied and moving said heavy artillery. While it doesn't look instantly fatal, it is a significant negative factor for the CPs.

Oh I forgot lubricants. Probably the biggest factor actually. You can replace mineral oil with vegetable oil to an extent but it's nowhere near as good. That's going to hit, trains, ships and factories. Decreased mobility and significant production problems. Perhaps not fatal but looks quite crippling on the face of it.

Oil is one of those critical supplies, it is used in so many ways that without it the industrial machinery stops. Modern warfare was getting dependent on oil in this era. But recall in this era the bulk of cargo moves by rail (coal fired) and then horse, only the USA and Entente were beginning to seriously use trucks, so the CP would simply slow down the tempo of operations and be at a disadvantage to tactically move troops, guns and supplies, but so long as the trenches were holding that is not a grave threat, but as the tank gets more capable the trenches are getting breached and that opens the possibilities to bigger defeats. One might see the Germans pull back into better fortified lines and thus mitigate the impact of fuel shortages. But then you are correct, the CP loses the ability to maintain air support, that is critical. Look at WW2 Luftwaffe experience for some idea on how badly the field army suffers when the air force is grounded. I am not convinced Germany needed the submarine offensive so scaling that back may not equal defeat.

 

[Miss Construction]

Oil is one of those critical supplies, it is used in so many ways that without it the industrial machinery stops. Modern warfare was getting dependent on oil in this era. But recall in this era the bulk of cargo moves by rail (coal fired) and then horse, only the USA and Entente were beginning to seriously use trucks, so the CP would simply slow down the tempo of operations and be at a disadvantage to tactically move troops, guns and supplies, but so long as the trenches were holding that is not a grave threat, but as the tank gets more capable the trenches are getting breached and that opens the possibilities to bigger defeats. One might see the Germans pull back into better fortified lines and thus mitigate the impact of fuel shortages. But then you are correct, the CP loses the ability to maintain air support, that is critical. Look at WW2 Luftwaffe experience for some idea on how badly the field army suffers when the air force is grounded. I am not convinced Germany needed the submarine offensive so scaling that back may not equal defeat.

The problem with those coal fired trains, and ships for that matter, is they need the oil for lubrication. Yes you can use vegetable oil, but it is much less effective.

However, one flow on of keeping the subs in port, is I may have stumbled across a way to keep the US out of the war.

 

[Riain]

What was German demand for oil in WW1? Was is relatively worse than Britain in this regard?

 

[Miss Construction]

What was German demand for oil in WW1? Was is relatively worse than Britain in this regard?

I haven't found any figures. Using a wide guess. German industry was more modern, so while I'd imagine they'd be pretty similar, the Germans might need more. But it is only a guess.

 

[marathag]

I believe refiners were limited to natural gasoline present in the oil, around 80 octane

Before catalytic cracking that started in the '20s, the Octane equivalent was 50-60, and varied due to base stock of the oil(California stock was better than Pennsylvania), and straight run distillation did not remove all the lighter hydrocarbons, so in some months after, the octane of stored fuel would drop as the outside temperatures would increase as they boiled out of the fuel.
At the time, you could only find how good the fuel was by checking the specific gravity of the sample, and adjust the timing on the motor to prevent pinging/knock.