Exit the Haze: Hitler – The Master strategist who resurrected Germany as a global power

[Gudestein]

Chapter 7: Management of alliances in Easter Europe and army preparations for operation Barbarossa.
As Hitler saw a compliant Balkan’s as a key requirements for Barbarossa, the countries in the Balkan’s saw the full might of German diplomacy thrust upon them. Slovakia and Horty’s Hungary was de facto alliance partners from the onset, but the reluictant King Carol’s Romania had to be included as well. It was true that Germany had been a poor partner for Romania, having already promised Bessarabia to the Soviet Union, and Hitler and Ribbentrop proceeded with the stick. Parts of Romania was given away to Hungary and Bulgaria, while in a classical good cop-bad cop fashion, officers in Romania would be let to now that a coup against King Carol would be met with Axis support. This indeed happened in January 1941 and with the fall of Greece, Yugoslavia soon stood alone and unaligned. Fearing the same faith, as is Romania, the Yugoslav Prince Paul also aligned with the Axis, albeit an alliance which was extremely unpopular with the primarily Serbian dominated army elements. The Germans off course realized this and subsequently forced upon Prince Paul promotion of non-Serbian officers as well as the acceptance of German and Italian basing rights at the Adriatic Sea and in Belgrade. In effect, under severe pressure, Yugoslavia was made into a German puppet over the coming months*.
Strategic army decisions:
While securing a southern flank in the Balkans and in North Africa, and building up the means to interfere with Soviet supplies in the arctic and in the Indian Ocean, the main show was the preparation for operation Barbarossa. Strategically, Hitler wanted the red army destroyed as far west as possible, but also wanted to prepare for deeper strikes, to prevent a rebuild of the red army. Key changes in weaponry was the upgrade of the Panzer III with the Pak39 50 mm L60 gun, the introduction of a 75 mm L42 gun on the Panzer IV, and the introduction of the FW190 in January 1941 with a supply of the DB601 until the BMW801 was ready, even though it was in direct competition with the Bf-109. This was seen as a necessary aircraft to operate from forward air fields, clearly a requirement to maintain the strike capacity of the Ju-87 which was Luftwaffe’s most effective ground attack aircraft. A steady supply of Portuguese Tungsten also allowed the stockpiling of effective armor piercing projectiles for the German tanks, a key priority as the Germans had seen KV-I tanks captured by the Finns in the winter war.
More important changes still happened in the field of logistics. The use of 200.000 captured French lorries and strategic fuel supplies surely helped, but Hitler also insisted that engineer corps, stockpiles of railroad tracks were prepared in advance, while the prioritization of locomotives was increased.
Looking further ahead, Hitler on hand saw the urgency of breaking the Soviet Union, he also saw the danger of having the task 2/3 completed in a few years while an Anglo-American offensive started to strike at the German heart land. Additional priorities was therefore placed in securing the necessary materials for aircraft turbo and superchargers, as were the development of additional synthetic fuel plants, some dedicated to producing high octane aviation fuel.

*With the British collapse ITTL, I think the coup of OTL is butterflied away. It would be obviously suicidal.
** While this is a major butterfly for Barbarossa, I consider the additional items bought for the Germans ITTL (Graf Zeppelin, Locomotives, some more synthetic fuel plants) offset by the lack of the disrupted European transportation that happened in OTL with the assembly of Barges for operation Sea Lion.

 

[Gudestein]

Sorry for the quite short update, but time has been short this weekend as well. Please come with suggestions that might happen as a consequence of the POD and I might chose to expand the chapter.
Next follows the first Axis set-back ITTL. The British has been cornered and naturally throws everything into the defense of Egypt. The have nowhere else to fight.

 

[Gudestein]

Will there be enough He 274s to execute OP Eisenhammer against the Soviets when the time comes?
It seems Goering has finally made a good decision regard the abandonment of the fire prone He 177.

Yes, just about. Development of the aircraft and the doctrine was part of the tasks for Göring. It seems it will be the He-177B, but it sounded like it was a all round effective design from the get-go. Also, ITTL, the FW-190 goes ahead intitially with DB engines which means that the BMW801 is available for the He177B.
Alsoå, ITTL there is no pause in Fritz-X development, nor in the proximmity fuzes the Germans developed IOTL, so German aircraft technology and defense of its production will do better ITTL.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Yes, just about. Development of the aircraft and the doctrine was part of the tasks for Göring. It seems it will be the He-177B, but it sounded like it was a all round effective design from the get-go. Also, ITTL, the FW-190 goes ahead intitially with DB engines which means that the BMW801 is available for the He177B.
Alsoå, ITTL there is no pause in Fritz-X development, nor in the proximmity fuzes the Germans developed IOTL, so German aircraft technology and defense of its production will do better ITTL.

The proxy fuses should make German flak more effective overall.
Are the Germans still building flak towers?

 

[Gudestein]

The proxy fuses should make German flak more effective overall.
Are the Germans still building flak towers?

As Hitler anticipates a bomber offensive as the British response, then yes, but not quite with OTL urgency. ITTL there has been no retaliation strike against Berlin and operation Barbarossa takes first priority.

 

[Gudestein]

Chapter 8: The 1st attack on El Alamein and strategic consequences towards Barbarossa.
On the 14th of January, Rommels Afrika Korps and Italian allies attacked the entrenched British forces at El Alamein, but unlike previous engagements, the British Line were defended by numerous troops that had received all the British could ship them following the abandonment of the aerial battle of Britain. The line held, and Rommel who had been told not to become engaged in a battle of attrition abrogated the offense. Rommel flew back to Berlin to discuss the consequences with Hitler:
Rommel: As it turns out, on this occasion we were outnumbered and outgunned. The British have massively reinforced the theater, and much getter resupply is needed to break them.
Hitler: Can you even get them there considering there is but a single highway from Libya to Mirsa Matruh?
Rommel: That is true, a greater than normal complement of trucks would be needed.
Hitler: Would the harbors be adequate to supply these truck?
Rommel: What are you getting at?
Hitler: I want us to go on the defensive in North Africa. Attacks will have to be resumed after we finish a railroad to Mirsa Matruh and the harbor there can be expanded. We will dig in at El Alamein and construct further defensive positions at Mirsa Matruh. We will make sure there are enough supplies for the divisions already there, but don’t intend to reinforce them further. The Italians will have to build their strength here. This should be possible with complete control of the sea.
Rommel: But, but what about the offensive? You want me to just sit and wait in North Africa?
Hitler: No, you will given command of the 1st Panzer Corps. Von Reichenau will replace you. Offensive operations might be concluded later.
On this note, Hitler would later reveal that he could not afford to let Africa develop into an army and Luftwaffe sinkhole, while preparing for operation Barbarossa. The Italian with two German divisions backing them could take the defensive positions and the attack could resume when the German submarines where let loose in the Indian Ocean – And the back of the Soviets had been broken. Only then. Hitler intended this to be the winter of 1941/42 were offensive operations would be impossible in Russia anyways.
Strategic outlook:
With the focus on strategically important targets that followed the capitulation of France and the sacking of Dr. Morell, the German Wehrmacht received a readiness level for the upcoming operation Barbarossa it had never achieved before.
Investments in infrastructure trippled the output of locomotives, achieved by increasing priority, using simplersteel allocations and by selecting simpler types as the new type 42 and 52 locomotives. Some bottlenecks in internal German railroad transport were thus ameliorated and in the conquered territories the completion of the conversion of the Polish railroad systems and a Northern and southern railroad bridge over the Vistula river dramatically improved transport capacity on the future Easter front. By adding 100000 workers from the Landewehr divisons that would be trained by the 50000 professionels available for this job, a large railroad expansion force was prepared in advance for Barbarossa. Additionally, Railroad tracks had already been assembled, German signals equipment stockpiled and a plan had been made for connecting railroad centers in 300 KM's stages along the main lines of advance.
Fuel supply was a concern, but all possible efforts were now being invested in the building of additional synthetic fuel plants and optimizing the yield of existing oil fields.
For the Luftwaffe, the limited scale of the aerial Battle of Britain and the inability to support more than a fraction of the force on forward bases in the Mediterranean meant that pilot training had soared and veteran pilot instructors had really improved the quality of Fresh pilots.
In aircraft production, the Ju-87 numbers had continued to increase and the dirt-cheap Hs-123C model had been put back in production. With a more powerful engine, the Hs-123 could carry the MK103 underneath or an improved bomb load. In a rather cynical scheme, the Hs123 would be the aircraft in which newly trained pilots would earn their laurels before moving on to the JU-87’s. In addition to the Hs-123 and JU-87, the Fieseler-167 was quite the curiosity. It had been put in limited production as a carrier based torpedo bomber, but was also clearly a capable ground attack aircraft.
To support the vulnerable ground attack aircraft there was off course the Bf109’s, but the expectation was that the attack aircraft would operate from forward improvised air fields and and the FW-190 fighter had been introduced to follow them. Powered with a DB601E engine it was an excellent medium altitude fighter, although the later introduction of the BMW801 improved low altitude performance.
The other fighter cover provided came from the Bf109’s that were now fighting with the FW190’s for the latest engines, and the FW-187 Falke. Originally made with Jumo-210 engines, it transitioned seamlessly into the Jumo-211 and with this engines achieved excellent performance. With extensive range and loiter time, this would be the Hawk, praying on the soviet aircraft.
For medium bombers the job was taken up by He-111’s and JU-88’s and some of the remaining Do17’s whereas the heavy bombers were the Do-217’s and He-177B models of which only a squadron of each would be ready at the beginning of Barbarossa, but with rapidly increasing numbers as the BMW-801 became available.
The most dramatic change perhaps were in the Transportverband. Here, JU-52 numbers had sky-rocketed and the Ar-232 and giant Messerchmidt 323 transport had been introduced together with the Me-321 glider. An He-111z version had been produced the tow the giant aircraft. This had been coupled with a thorough paratrooper doctrine were the paratroopers could drop carrying submachine guns, with additional improved light weight 50 mm anti-tank guns and 75 mm recoilless guns and much better radio’s for coordination with air support.
The Kriegsmarine was likewise well prepared for many of the tasks at hand. 4 Battleships and an aircraft carrier were ready to bottle up the Soviet Baltic fleet and operate from Northern Norway with land based fighter and strike support, while the Italians were controlling the Mediterranean. In the Black sea, a force of 20 type II submarines had been assembled and the majority of the Italian submarine force was scheduled to operate there as no more targets were present in the Mediterranean. The Soviet black sea fleet was stronger than the Romanian and Bulgarian fleets and only submarines and small ships could be transported to the Black sea to combat the Soviet fleet. This had been done to the widest extent possible, and a combined attack with midget submarines and torpedo bombers had been planned in an attempt to knock-out the heavy ships and wrestle control of the black sea shores from the soviets. If this could be achieved, the Germans could use the waterways for transport and army group south could progress much faster than otherwise possible.
Similar airborne attacks would also be made against the Soviet Baltic fleet in hope that it would become sufficiently weakened to allow more German units to be transferred to Norway.
Army preparations: The early introduction of Finland and Romania into the axis alliance also meant that sufficient time were available to prepare the build-up of four different army group (Artic, North, Center, South), each intended to carry sufficient armor support to conduct individual encirclement operations. The strategic considerations for these army groups were in principle to encircle as many soviet troops as possible as far west as possible. However, following initial encirclements, the strategy going forward was not set in stone. Hitler and the general staff imagined the range of an armored spear head to be around 300 km’s which enabled 3 cauldrons on the way to Moscow, with Moscow itself being the 4th. Two of these could be imagined in succession with a basis in truck transport, but moving further required diminishing resistance and/or an improved supply situation. This could be guaranteed in the North and was possible in the South if the Germans could dominate the black sea.
Hence, the Germans adopted a strategy of performing two large scale encirclements from AGN, AGC and AGS, then a Leningrad first, and if resupply was available by waterways a thrust towards Rostov, with Moscow then being approachable from the North, West and South. If the going got tough in the South, resources would be shifted to AGC and Moscow would be the next priority after Leningrad.
As each outcome depended on the rapid capture of Leningrad, this front would also initially see the support of sea and land based transport as well as paratroopers to reap confusion behind enemy lines.
[Summary of selected changes as compared to OTL:
On every front, the Luftwaffe has more fighters and more CAS aircraft available than OTL, and these are better suited to the conditions in Russia.
ThePanzer III’s have the Pak39 50 mm L/60 with Tungsten shells, the Panzer IV’s started to use the 75mm L42. Thus, the German panzers are much better capable of dealing with the Russian tanks than OTL (where training, optics, handling and tactics already game them the edge despite deficiency in armor and firepower).
A force of 3-4 battleships and a carrier as well as land-based fighters are in position in Northern Norway. Artic convoys are practically impossible ITTL.
Army group Artic has a German air group and a joint command intended to pursue the Soviets beyond Leningrad and into Karelia.
AGN will get more sea and land based supply than OTL
AGC is as OTL, but the better aircraft protection and CAS will be an important factor and reduce attrition as Soviet counterattacks will be weaker.
AGS has Rommel as the new commander of 1st Panzer corps and IOTL they missed the units that were involved in Yugoslavia and Greece. The units that are not send to North Africa ITTL are placed on this front as well. Eg. all things being equal, AGS should experience the early progression rates that AGN and AGC experienced IOTL.
Black sea: Midget submarine attack on Sevastopol and not Alexandria ITTL. An attempt to pull a Pearl Harbor and subsequently dominate the waters with smaller ships and air power.
Indian Ocean: Milchkühe established and type IX submarine ready to wreak havoc upon the Britsih shipping lanes and cut the resupply to both the Soviets and the British in Egypt
Strategic bombing: ITTL the Germans are not committed to a 6 week victory, so they prepare systematically for the weakening of the Soviet Union. From the onset, the He-111’s will attack railroads and strategic targets within range and the Do-217’s and He-177B’s will develop the tactics for other targets. Floating bombs are being developed for targeting Soviet dams and turbine installations and will be targeted when a few more planes are ready that can reach them.]

Edit: This section has been substantially edited post comments from Ferdi:
Investments in infrastructure trippled the output of locomotives, achieved by increasing priority, using simplersteel allocations and by selecting simpler types as the new type 42 and 52 locomotives. Some bottlenecks in internal German railroad transport were thus ameliorated and in the conquered territories the completion of the conversion of the Polish railroad systems and a Northern and southern railroad bridge over the Vistula river dramatically improved transport capacity on the future Easter front. Additionally, Railroad tracks had already been assembled, German signals equipment stockpiled and a plan had been made for connecting railroad centers in 300 KM's stages along the main lines of advance.


Edit based on post 82:

So,

By adding 100000 workers from the Landewehr divisons that would be trained by the 50000 professionels available for this job, a large railroad expansion force was prepared in advance for Barbarossa. ​

​

 

[Gudestein]

Chapter 9: Prelude for Barbarossa.
The Wehrmacht was ready for operation Barbarossa in early May, but he information on the planned attack was leaked from the German embassy in Tokyo and fell into Soviet hands. Yet no attack came. Soviet preparation for a forward defense was undoubtedly observed by high flying reconnaissance planes and as the attack date passed uneventful, Stalin became paranoid that his own forces would trigger war. He ordered absolute passivity to prevent accidental fires from triggering a war. Stalin had good reasons to think German ambitions lay elsewhere as events in the spring of 1941 seemed to hint at an offensive in the Middle East. The French Atlantic coast near Spain was given back to the Vichy regime (with German patrol and basing rights), and it was hinted that Paris might soon follow. Meanwhile, spies in the Levant could observe the build-up of French colonial forces and a submarine offensive, supplemented by AMC’s, kicked in in the Indian Ocean from May 1941 with remarkable efficiency. Stalin was sure that the French had been bribed and that the hammer would strike in Egypt and Palestine, but it was but a ruse. The Hammer fell on the morning of June 8th with staggering brutality from the Arctic to the black sea.

 

[Gudestein]

Just a miniature update to set the scene for what is to come. Also the right moment to ask for questions so I could change something that doesnt seem right.

 

[ferdi254]

Building two bridges over the Vistula, greatly increasing the number of locomotives, more readiness for changing tracks and eliminating choke points in the German system, me thinketh you have just run out of a) engineers and planners b) drivers for locomotives (not a 3 weeks education at the time) and c) the capacity to build the locomotives. And the choke points, many of them would require serious and long term commitment as the Rhine valley, Bielefeld etc all are not easily avoided/widened. So I would reduce that all in numbers.

Oh and btw, I also agree that getting the Fins to advance into Karelia... the fleet should be enough to at least reduce the number of possible convoys.

 

[Gudestein]

Building two bridges over the Vistula, greatly increasing the number of locomotives, more readiness for changing tracks and eliminating choke points in the German system, me thinketh you have just run out of a) engineers and planners b) drivers for locomotives (not a 3 weeks education at the time) and c) the capacity to build the locomotives. And the choke points, many of them would require serious and long term commitment as the Rhine valley, Bielefeld etc all are not easily avoided/widened. So I would reduce that all in numbers.

Oh and btw, I also agree that getting the Fins to advance into Karelia... the fleet should be enough to at least reduce the number of possible convoys.

Thanks for the update. I remember from Tooze that the strains of war (Poland/France) basically collapsed internal Railroad transportation iotl, but little was done until Barbarossa made the problems chronic.
I will need to check up on what was done to solve/reduce the problems iotl.
Compared to OTL not losing a lot of Barges help, as they free up locomotives elsewhere.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Bullshit. They can make the USSR crumble, maybe even before the USA enters the war. This Hitler will probably contact the Japanese about helping the Germans by attacking the Russian Far East, delaying or even avoiding Pearl Harbor entirely.

This healthy Hitler can be smart enough to delay the Final Solution in the Eastern Front til after the war is over, this would also help a lot.

The Japanese had no interest in invading the Soviet Union from the east and even if they did, the poor infrastructure, limited reserves and poor logistical support is likely to keep them from making any big gains against the Russians.

 

[Femto]

The Japanese had no interest in invading the Soviet Union from the east and even if they did, the poor infrastructure, limited reserves and poor logistical support is likely to keep them from making any big gains against the Russians.

They are interested in oil and the Axis can squeeze the USSR for oil in a peace deal. And Japan doesn't need to conquer Siberia by force of arms or even make any deep penetration into USSR territory, they just need to cause havoc around Vladivostok and tie some russian troops there.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

They are interested in oil and the Axis can squeeze the USSR for oil in a peace deal. And Japan doesn't need to conquer Siberia by force of arms or even make any deep penetration into USSR territory, they just need to cause havoc around Vladivostok and tie some russian troops there.

Russia’s oil reserves were largely in the West, well beyond Japans reach.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Russia’s oil reserves were largely in the West, well beyond Japans reach.

Caucasus area.
Unless Japan has a crazy fucking teleporter, it's out of their reach.
And Siberian oil hasn't been found yet.

 

[Femto]

Caucasus area.
Unless Japan has a crazy fucking teleporter, it's out of their reach.
And Siberian oil hasn't been found yet.

Have you ever heard about the Trans-Siberian railway?

 

[BlackDragon98]

Have you ever heard about the Trans-Siberian railway?

Soviets are going to blow it up as they retreat if they have to.
And it's a longggg way to the Caucasus from Siberia.

 

[Femto]

Soviets are going to blow it up as they retreat if they have to.
And it's a longggg way to the Caucasus from Siberia.

Who is talking about the Japanese taking the railway? I'm talking about a German victory with Japanese help leading to the Soviet rump-state being obligated to supply Japan with oil in the peace deal. The Japanese don't need to get anywhere near the Caucasus.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Who is talking about the Japanese taking the railway? I'm talking about a German victory with Japanese help leading to the Soviet rump-state being obligated to supply Japan with oil in the peace deal. The Japanese don't need to get anywhere near the Caucasus.

oh.
I thought you were talking about a massive Japanese offensive at the Soviet Far East.

 

[ferdi254]

That would only make sense if Germany can crush the USSR until December 41 and force the oil to go to Japan (which Germany needs as well) and the transsib can handle the amount Japan needs. Japan was running on fumes in December 41.

 

[Femto]

oh.
I thought you were talking about a massive Japanese offensive at the Soviet Far East.

No. That would be crazy.