Reading in my history magazine, named ‘’Alles Over Geschiedenis’’ (Everything About History), I saw a scenario about ‘’What If Napoleon won the battle of Waterloo’’. The Point of divergence starts with the Battle of Ligny. At Ligny, the Prussians would suffer a bigger defeat in the battle with Napoleon than in our timeline. Thanks to a bigger victory at Ligny, Napoleon is able to win the battle of Waterloo shortly after. According to two historians, who made this timeline, Napoleon certainly would have taken Brussels and maybe he would have been able to reach the Rhine and the Scheldt. The historians also predicted that Napoleon would go back to Paris to defend the city from the Austrians and the Russians, after winning in Waterloo and Brussels. However, he would still be defeated in a few weeks or months (one historian said a couple weeks, the other said a few weeks or months), by the Austrians and the Russians.
Furthermore, Napoleon thought that if the Bourbons captured him, he would be executed. That is why he surrendered to the British. The British where scared that if they executed Napoleon, they would turn him into a martyr. According to the two historians, if he was executed, he would indeed become a martyr.
In this ‘’what if’’ scenario, he was sent to trial in France and executed. He became a martyr, what led to political instability and a civil war. The scenario ended with the United Kingdom still becomes the dominant world power like it was in our nineteenth century. The historians said that, besides the wars in China etcetera, their next big challenge would be the Crimean war. Between the Napoleonic wars and the Crimean war, the balance of power originated out 1815 is expected to remain the same as it was in in our timeline. I don’t know about the last part. The stories say that France ends up in a civil war, Britain steal all the French colonies and the Crimean war breaks out earlier (the last two are mentioned in the timeline). If that would have happened in our timeline, the borders of the world would look a lot different.
For all the details, I have written the timeline down as it is shown in the book:
18-19 June 1815: Napoleon defeats the Prussians and after the ground has dried he sends his troops to Waterloo. During the battle of Waterloo, Wellington loses too many lives and retreats to the British garrison in Brussels.
21 June 1815: Back in Paris, Napoleon dissolves the parliament without opposition. As dictator, he takes the power to defend Paris against further attacks. (The capturing of Brussels or that Napoleon reached the Rhine and Scheldt are not mentioned in this part of the story. I don’t think he can conquer Brussels, reach the Rhine and come back to Paris to dissolve the parliament in just four days.)
July 1815: Barclay de Tolly uses his experiences to siege Paris with his the Austrian-Russian forces.
July 1815: The allies consider Napoleon a danger for the peace in Europe and Louis the XVIII is allowed to execute him after he surrendered. This divides France and Napoleon becomes a martyr.
15 July 1815: Followers of Napoleons ideas about constitutional reformations during the hundred days are furious about his execution and protest against the Bourbons.
September 1815: Disillusioned Napoleonic leaders use the Pro-Bonaparte mood to come to power. A civil war breaks out in France.
Mid Nineteenth Century: The British take over the abandoned French colonies. A weakened France disrupts the balance of power in Europe. Therefore, it’s possible that the Crimean war takes place earlier. (The stories contradict its self at this point.)
My question is, is this timeline realistic? And what would happened afterwards, if this timeline did really take place? Would we see a France split into two or more parts? Would Prussia still form Germany? And would the Crimean war really take place earlier?
Furthermore, Napoleon thought that if the Bourbons captured him, he would be executed. That is why he surrendered to the British. The British where scared that if they executed Napoleon, they would turn him into a martyr. According to the two historians, if he was executed, he would indeed become a martyr.
In this ‘’what if’’ scenario, he was sent to trial in France and executed. He became a martyr, what led to political instability and a civil war. The scenario ended with the United Kingdom still becomes the dominant world power like it was in our nineteenth century. The historians said that, besides the wars in China etcetera, their next big challenge would be the Crimean war. Between the Napoleonic wars and the Crimean war, the balance of power originated out 1815 is expected to remain the same as it was in in our timeline. I don’t know about the last part. The stories say that France ends up in a civil war, Britain steal all the French colonies and the Crimean war breaks out earlier (the last two are mentioned in the timeline). If that would have happened in our timeline, the borders of the world would look a lot different.
For all the details, I have written the timeline down as it is shown in the book:
18-19 June 1815: Napoleon defeats the Prussians and after the ground has dried he sends his troops to Waterloo. During the battle of Waterloo, Wellington loses too many lives and retreats to the British garrison in Brussels.
21 June 1815: Back in Paris, Napoleon dissolves the parliament without opposition. As dictator, he takes the power to defend Paris against further attacks. (The capturing of Brussels or that Napoleon reached the Rhine and Scheldt are not mentioned in this part of the story. I don’t think he can conquer Brussels, reach the Rhine and come back to Paris to dissolve the parliament in just four days.)
July 1815: Barclay de Tolly uses his experiences to siege Paris with his the Austrian-Russian forces.
July 1815: The allies consider Napoleon a danger for the peace in Europe and Louis the XVIII is allowed to execute him after he surrendered. This divides France and Napoleon becomes a martyr.
15 July 1815: Followers of Napoleons ideas about constitutional reformations during the hundred days are furious about his execution and protest against the Bourbons.
September 1815: Disillusioned Napoleonic leaders use the Pro-Bonaparte mood to come to power. A civil war breaks out in France.
Mid Nineteenth Century: The British take over the abandoned French colonies. A weakened France disrupts the balance of power in Europe. Therefore, it’s possible that the Crimean war takes place earlier. (The stories contradict its self at this point.)
My question is, is this timeline realistic? And what would happened afterwards, if this timeline did really take place? Would we see a France split into two or more parts? Would Prussia still form Germany? And would the Crimean war really take place earlier?