España No Ha Muerto: If Franco brought Spain into the Second World War

[Deus_Vult]

Spain is going to get punished for heading into the war. The Allies won’t care about that.

Spain is very explicitely seen as a de facto occupied nation. And as was mentioned, Italy was permitted to keep its mandate.

The Allies do in fact care about stuff like that given that they won't be dicks just for the sake of being dicks. Establishing a stable Spain is in their best interest in the coming Cold War given that it'll let them contain communist influence, while not having to worry about a new front from the South.

And if Portugal joins the Axis they will get that same mistreatment.

Portugal is explicitely not going to join the Axis and is instead seemingly set to be invaded by them.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Spain is very explicitely seen as a de facto occupied nation. And as was mentioned, Italy was permitted to keep its mandate.

The Allies do in fact care about stuff like that given that they won't be dicks just for the sake of being dicks. Establishing a stable Spain is in their best interest in the coming Cold War given that it'll let them contain communist influence, while not having to worry about a new front from the South.

Portugal is explicitely not going to join the Axis and is instead seemingly set to be invaded by them.

Keeping a stable Spain is good for the Allies but that doesn’t mean it’ll be business as usual. The US had an interest in keeping Japan stable but its empire still got dismantled.

Ok I forgot about the Salazar thing but still after going through whatever war it’ll have to go I can’t see Portugal keeping its colonies after that.

 

[Whiteshore]

Keeping a stable Spain is good for the Allies but that doesn’t mean it’ll be business as usual. The US had an interest in keeping Japan stable but its empire still got dismantled.

Ok I forgot about the Salazar thing but still after going through whatever war it’ll have to go I can’t see Portugal keeping its colonies after that.

Especially as Spanish Morocco, as mentioned before, had both the Rif Republic and its status as a nominally independent protectorate under King Muhammad V in mind.

 

[walmart]

I can't see Spain losing anything beyond its African holdings and that town in dispute with Portugal. Both an Independent Basque Republic and Catalonia would have irredentist claims on France.

 

[ramones1986]

My guess is that Spain will be occupied by Wallies and exiled politicians (expect communists, leadership of ethnic minority groups and possible anti-Franco fascists) held national convention and decide new constitution. Probably it is just about similar as Second Republic but try to keep that more stable or parliamentary monarchy.

I agree, although I doubt if the exiled Republicans could agree on it (unless they'd suggested that the country is a "Crowned Republic"); could the country be decentralized?

PS: I thought of either Eugenio Vegas Latapiél, Afredo Kindelán Duany or José María Gil-Robles as the head of post-war Spanish government. Which of the two was more plausible?

 

[AstroRangerBeans]

I can't see Spain losing anything beyond its African holdings and that town in dispute with Portugal. Both an Independent Basque Republic and Catalonia would have irredentist claims on France.

What about the fate of Galicia?

I would theorize that Galicia might be awarded to Portugal as part of joining the Allies after WWII, given the reasons that Galicia has a similar language to the Portuguese and is more likely that Portugal will try to 'reunite' with their kin or sibling.

If Spain was defeated and occupied, would they try to pull Italy if they wanted to reinstate a monarch, albeit in a Westminster fashion in terms of governance and parliamentary system?

 

[AlexGarcia]

If Spain was defeated and occupied, would they try to pull Italy if they wanted to reinstate a monarch, albeit in a Westminster fashion in terms of governance and parliamentary system?

Why would they? There's a literal Second Republic government in exile (and the guerrillas in mainland Spain were also republican), and both the PCE and the PSOE (which by WW2 still considered itself as a marxist and republican party) are still very influential for their actions in the Civil War.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

I can't see Spain losing anything beyond its African holdings and that town in dispute with Portugal. Both an Independent Basque Republic and Catalonia would have irredentist claims on France.

This is very likely what will happen, to no one outside the Iberian Peninsula and Olivenza would care enough to insist that she should stay in Spain, so if Portugal asks for it they will give it to them. The same for the African lands.

What about the fate of Galicia?

I would theorize that Galicia might be awarded to Portugal as part of joining the Allies after WWII, given the reasons that Galicia has a similar language to the Portuguese and is more likely that Portugal will try to 'reunite' with their kin or sibling.

If Spain was defeated and occupied, would they try to pull Italy if they wanted to reinstate a monarch, albeit in a Westminster fashion in terms of governance and parliamentary system?

All of this was already discussed previously in the thread.

But to give you the TL;DR: No, Salazar wouldn't want Galicia, or anyone in Portugal for that matter, because they would see him as a burden more than anything else.

Unlike Olivenza, it is a territory that they do not want, which is much larger and difficult to assimilate than Olivenza, and will be a money pit for decades and a reason for constant disputes against whoever takes over the government of the rest of Spain.

Not forgetting that that same bullshit logic of "well, they speak something that vaguely resembles German, OF COURSE THEY MUST BE PART OF GERMANY" is exactly the same bullshit logic that FUCKING HITLER used, which would be a huge NO with neon lettering for any allied commander.

If anything, I could see them cursing the stupid American bureaucrat who insisted that it would be a great idea to "reward" Portugal by putting that burden on it.

Regarding the monarchy, the fact that Franco declared the country a Kingdom, and that the country was a Republic BEFORE the SCW and Franco takeover, would in itself be more than enough reason NOT to do it.

We also adds the fact that the would-be King is kneeling before Hitler to beg him to put him on the throne, and you can see that this is considered as toxic or more toxic than trying to put a communist regime in power.

 

[AstroRangerBeans]

In the possible aftermath of the war, should Spain and the future independent nation of Catalonia and Basque Country receive extra funds needed to rebuild what remains of damaged/destroyed infrastructure, railroads, and others through the Marshall Plan?

In the OTL, Francoist Spain practiced the economic form of autarky and therefore didn't meet the obliged requirements to qualify politically to become eligible for Marshall Plan but once the Allied forces has "liberated" the country, is it possible or not for the Spain to accept Marshall Plan benefits?

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archivo.alde.es

The Marshall Plan and the Spanish postwar economy: a welfare loss analysis on JSTOR

JOSÉ A. CARRASCO-GALLEGO, The Marshall Plan and the Spanish postwar economy: a welfare loss analysis, The Economic History Review, Vol. 65, No. 1 (FEBRUARY 2012), pp. 91-119

www.jstor.org

 

[Mitridates the Great]

We don't even know if Spain is going to be divided, but yes, they would surely give them funds.

The only reason Spain not received Marshall Funds in OTL was because of the whole issue of being a dictatorship that had aligned itself with the Axis, but here they are a country liberated by the Allies that is interested in rebuilding so that it does not fall into the hands of communism (a of the main reasons for passing the Marshall Plan).

Without forgetting that, again, Germany and Italy received the Marshall Plan, so it would be curious to say the least if the main enemy was given millions of dollars while the reluctant enemy reluctantly dragged into the war was discussed to giving pennies.

 

[Santo Nombre]

I thought of either Eugenio Vegas Latapiél, Afredo Kindelán Duany or José María Gil-Robles as the head of post-war Spanish government. Which of the two was more plausible?

- Eugenio Vegas Latapié was a hardline catholic, antiliberal and highranked member of Falange. Imposible to be choosen.

- Kindelán was personally close to the United Kingdom, to such an extent that the British authorities attempted to use him to force Franco to restore the monarchy in 1942 in order to push Spain away from the Axis powers. In OTL he fall in disgrace after his opposition to Franco even if Spain never entered the war. In this scenario Kindelán was probably killed or emprisoned as a result of Franco choosing to go full fascist, so is not an avalaible option.

- Gil-Robles is the best option, but is hard to be named head of the postwar Spain by the Wallies because he was not in Spain and, again, in TTL the monarchist has been silenced so many if his contacts could been killed or emprisoned.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Also I seriously doubt the Allies are going to give Catalonia and Basque County independence. No way they're going to want to set a precedent of secessionism that could hurt themselves.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Okay I must say that I personally think that some of the proposals to punish Spain for its participation in the Second World War ITTL seem to be based more on sick fantasies of revenge for imaginary grievances than anything else.

In addition to being based on the fact that for some reason the Allied leaders decide that Spain deserves WORSE treatment than what Germany will receive (you know, the country that started the whole damn war).

If I have understood the various punitive proposals correctly, we have at least three categories: safe proposals, probable proposals, and crazy proposals.

Sure proposals/This happen for sure:
-Anyone who was part of Franco's Government will end up hanging from a noose.
-All traces of Francoist legality and governance will be eliminated.
-Confiscations and sanctions for anyone who has supported the regime or has been enriched by its actions.
-New Republican government (de-Francoised) built from scratch on the remains of the original.
-Decentralized state with broad regional autonomy (based on the fact that the Second Republic was in the process of doing this, and that is what would be done in OTL Germany).
-This government explicitly and unequivocally renounces any irredentist claim (especially Gibraltar).

Probable/reasonable proposals:
-Spain loses all territory except the Iberian Peninsula, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.
-Portugal gets Olivenza (no one cares enough to tell them no / it's seen as a way to "throw them a bone" to get them to agree to democratize their government).
-The members of the Second Republic in exile obtain participation in the new government of the new Spanish State.
-Compensation for damages to exiles.

Crazy proposals/based only on punitive fantasies:
-Balkanization of the country (there is no reason for it, it was not done even with Germany, it does not obey any strategic objective in the short, medium or long term, it will compromise the legitimacy of any government that is established for accepting something like that).
-Impose a return to the monarchy at gunpoint (legitimacy close to zero, it was not even done with Germany, the would-be King was licking the boots of Hitler and Mussolini, it does not obey any short, medium and long strategic objective term).
-Deny Spain access to the Marshall Plan (the hypothetical financial savings does not compensate for all the problems that will be caused by "letting the country rot", it will make the Allies look like disgusting hypocrites because they are giving money to GERMANY while Spain is not, it does not obey to any strategic objective in the short, medium, or long term).

"Ah, but Germany was divided" someone will say.

Yes, and that was intended as a TEMPORARY fix. NO ONE seriously intended for Germany to be permanently Balkanized.

This has more in common with creating a Kingdom of Bavaria and a Kingdom of Hanover occupying the entire (western) German coast and telling the remnant of Germany that it can NEVER consider those territories as part of Germany again, and that any claim to reunify will be responded to with MILITARY FORCE.

Edit: To clarify, I think the first two groups' proposals (sure/reasonable proposals) are things that will definitely happen / there is no realistic way to avoid them from happening / I see no reason to object to them because they fit the Allies' goals and are not unreasonably punitive. It is the third group (crazy proposals) that I believe there is no reason to carry out.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

I tend to agree. If Balkanisation happens - and it's pretty damn unlikely - it will be because the facts change on the ground, with local resistance movements forming their own governments that the Allies don't want the headaches of crushing. That's not saying that they'd recognise them either, but it's the only route to a Republic of Catalonia or Euskadi that lasts.

 

[French Frog]

Also I seriously doubt the Allies are going to give Catalonia and Basque County independence. No way they're going to want to set a precedent of secessionism that could hurt themselves.

The French will definitely veto that because they have their own Basques and Catalans too.

 

[ramones1986]

@Mitridates the Great, on the first (sure) proposal, here's what I thought:

• What will happen to Madrid and its eponymous province, given its status as the capital of the country?
• Given that a republican form of government will be restored from the ashes of previous one, will the Cortes still remain unicameral, or will it become bicameral? And also the (s)election of the Head of State and its role.

 

[Whiteshore]

• Given that a republican form of government will be restored from the ashes of previous one, will the Cortes still remain unicameral, or will it become bicameral? And also the (s)election of the Head of State and its role.

And on that note, another question is the nature of the Republic and whether the semi-presidential order would be restored or a parliamentary system enacted.

 

[ramones1986]

And on that note, another question is the nature of the Republic and whether the semi-presidential order would be restored or a parliamentary system enacted.

I guess it's parliamentary this time.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

@Mitridates the Great, on the first (sure) proposal, here's what I thought:

• What will happen to Madrid and its eponymous province, given its status as the capital of the country?
• Given that a republican form of government will be restored from the ashes of previous one, will the Cortes still remain unicameral, or will it become bicameral? And also the (s)election of the Head of State and its role.

Something similar to the Community of Madrid is probably believed, because including it in either of the two Castiles would make it "Madrid and friends", while maintaining Madrid as part of a Greater Castilla would not differ at all from Franco's centralism.

As for the restoration of the Cortes, something similar to what "would be done" with Germany would probably be done and they would be given more power to the detriment of the Executive: without a doubt it would be judged that it was a too strong Executive that caused these countries They became dictatorships.

In the case of Spain, I also see that additional safeguards are added so that any hypothetical post-war Spanish army is clear that its role is to serve the nation and obey the civil government, not to assume the role of ruler of the nation.

(Hell, we might even end up with a "Spanish Self-Defense Force" if it's decided that the Spanish Army needs to be harshly toothless.)

 

[Santo Nombre]

-This government explicitly and unequivocally renounces any irredentist claim (especially Gibraltar).

Absolutly. But that doesn't mean that UK never could be interested in selling in the afterwar a piece of land that has been destroyed to the grounds...

-Spain loses all territory except the Iberian Peninsula, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.

Don't forget Ceuta and Melilla. These two cities were part of Spain before the obtention of the Rif. Melilla from 1493 and Ceuta was Portuguese from 1415 and spanish from 1668. I mean, if they keep the Canary Island, that were fully conquered on 1496...
After the signature of the Atlantic Charter every colonial territory must hold elections, even if UK and France tried to delay it. About Rif, France will be very upset if Spain gives independence to it without counting with the rest of Morocco, and France only freed Morocco on 1956, eleven years after the end of WW2.

-Portugal gets Olivenza (no one cares enough to tell them no / it's seen as a way to "throw them a bone" to get them to agree to democratize their government).

Following the Atlantic Charter no territorial gain can be claimed by the Wallies after the war. So I don't see it possible to give Olivenza to Portugal, at least not without a referendum... A very problematic stuff