Admiral Nebogatov was surprised at the sight of his emperor. Nicholas II seemed diminished, shrunken by the strain of the last year. Times had been hard on everyone, but the contrast to their last encounter still came as a shock. Back then, when Nebogatov had been appointed to command the Kronstadt defenses, the Czar had looked lively and energetic. Now, his face was pale and the body listless. His voice was weighed down with bitterness. The admiral was worried. He hoped it would not show as he entered the room of the war council.
The introductions went quickly. Alongside Nicholas II and his commanding officer Rosjestvensky, Nebogatov was facing Dr Dubrovin, Governor Trepov and Grand Prince Nikolai. He saluted crisply and waited for the questions. Nicholas began: “Admiral, your superior has spoken highly of you. He has praised your tactical abilities and initiative. These are qualities we look for in naval leaders, and I can extend high hopes for the advancement of anyone who has audace and fortune. Today, I want you to tell me how you qwoulöd go about fighting the German navy, Admiral Nebogatov. I know you are an honest and brave Russian man. Do not be afraid to tell me the truth.”
Nebogatov stiffened. An invitation to be honest rarely was extended in earnest. Still, he decided to venture his opinion. “Your Majesty, I would prefer not to.”, he began. There was a sharp intake of breath. Dr Dubrovin looked up from his papers, ready to skewer him with his looks.
“You would not?” His voice was deceptively mild. Nebogatov wondered whether he hjad gone too gfar when Grand Prince Nikolai raised his hand and addressed the councillor: “Dr Dubrovin, please. The courage of Admiral Nebogatov has been proven to the extent it cannot be called into question.”
The rebuke stung. Dubrovin lowered his eyes and pretended to peruse the documents in front of him. If half of what you heard was true, he would be furious. Nebogatov risked a grateful glance at the Grand Prince before continuing his presentation.
“Your Majesty, I do not think it is a secret that the German navy is a dangerous and powerful adversary. It is the naturew of naval warfare in this day and age that its success depends on ships that are expensive and difficult to replace if lost. Thus, audacity on land may be forgiven if the risk is to regiments or brigades easily replaced in the coming year, but an admiral must shepherd his vessels carefully, always calculating their danger against the potential gain. It is not an easy position for a man of honour to be placed in. Facing the German navy, the risk of losing the fleet is great, and thus the demand to balance honour and prudence burdensome.”
Nicholas nodded understanding. So far, so good.
“That said, I do believe it is possible to fight the Germans successfully at sea. I have discussed the matter with several talented officers and we have developed ideas in this direction. If you would permit...”
There was a map, of course. There were diagrams detailing fleet strengths. You could never be sure how much information people had. The bare numbers looked encouraging, the opponents roughly equally matched. Nicholas's eyes lit up as he surveyed the sites of future battles unfolding in his mind.
“Tell me, Admiral; what makes the Germans so formidable, in your mind?”he asked.
Nebogatov cleared his throat nervously. “Their training, Sire.” he said. “The ships the Germnans deploy against us are good, but I do not think they are greatly superior. Some of our vessels are newer than theirs, and just as our Baltic fleet, their navy contains coastal ironclads that swell their numbers on paper, but cannot stand in the battle line with modern ships. However, I have seen their fleet operate in maneuvers, and what makes them dangerous is the level of their training. Their maneuvering is fast and accurate. German officers are trained to carry out standard tactical evolutions at different positions in battle formation much more thoroughly than us. Granted, they are less seamen than the British, but their gunnery is extremely fast and accurate. That is why the risk of massed fleet action against them is too great to contemplate.”
No storm of protest rose. The admiral continued, enncouraged by the response.
“As the unfortunate events in the Far East have shown, it is possible for even an inferior fleet to attrite the strength of a superior one. Numerically, the exercise is straightforward. At one point, the size of a fleet will become completely decisive. Until then, large fleet engagements must be avoided and auxiiliary weapons and small unit operations be applied to destroy enemy units singly, wherever possible. The Japanese did this very effectively. It is, of course, possible for the enemy to force an engagemennt by moving the fleet to our shores, but this could take place in our waters and, to a degree, on our terms. The strategy is sound, in any event. This is what I propose.”
He rolled up the map and returned it to its case. “Also, we must consider the nature of our enemy. The Japanese are treacherous, but brave. Defeating them would have required calling their bluff with a combined fleet action forcing losses on them.”
“From which we were prevented!” Nicholas pointed out bitterly. The humiliation of Vigo rankled.
“Indeed, Sire. The Germans, though, are an open and honourable foe, reliant on training and routine to unfold their full potential. Meeting them in open battle plays to their strengths. Even if we suffered comparable losses, the balance would favour them: German shipyards can replace their vessels faster than ours can. But the mental habit of training for designated scenarios is also their greatest weakness. Germans do not react well to the unexpected. The way to victory lies in striking unexpectedly, keeping them off-balance. If we can force them into a defensive stance, we can choose when and where to strike for maximal effect. The blows must be quick, hard, and surprising. The shock and humiliation will do their part in softening up the enemy. If we can achieve this, we will also demonstrate to potential allies the weakness of Germany and draw them into the war on our side.”
Nikolai nodded quietly. “You expect to be joined by the French fleet?”
Nebogatov affirmed: “Yes, Your Highness. I hope it. It will be possible for us to fight such a campaign alone, given audacity and a certain amount of luck, for a time. In the long run, though, a battle will be forced. We may win it – if the campaign is successful, we will win it. But with the French at our side, we can inflict more than moral damage. Their ships would allow a real blockade of Germany's coasts, crippling her trade and striking her port cities, even landing troops.”
“A seaborne invasion?” Trepov seemed genuinely fascinated by the thought. Nebogatov quickly stepped up to disabuse him of the nortion. “Excellency, these attacks can be no more than raids. In the long run, though, it will have to be the army that forces a decision. Germany is not vulnerable enough to naval threats, nor can we hope to permanently destroy her capacity to build and man warships. This, Sire, is the option for victory that I can give you. I believe it is possible.”
Nicholas smiled. His expression was almost dreamy. Dubrovin looked wolfish. “I am sorry, Admiral.” the civilian said. “I misjudged you earlier. Please accept my apologies. Now, will you be able to explain to us the plans you and your officers have developed?”
Nebogatov obediently unrolled the second map he had brought.
