Es Geloybte Aretz - a Germanwank

[Vingilótë]

Russia on her own, definitely.

But if the UK cannot keep France out of it - well, there might be the feeling that the Eastern front is in no danger and so avoid making a hard push there, instead concentrating the bulk of the Heer's manpower on the Western front...

TB-EI

If the UK supports Germany, as it is likely to do in this scenario, and given how Russo-German enmity seems to be overriding Franco-German enmity, I think there's a good chance, that the Eastern Front will still get the bulk of German manpower.

 

[Monty Burns]

But if the UK cannot keep France out of it - well, there might be the feeling that the Eastern front is in no danger and so avoid making a hard push there, instead concentrating the bulk of the Heer's manpower on the Western front...

The current situation requires offensive measures in the East to secure the rebellions in Poland and Finland, and maybe to stir more in the Baltics. Note also that ITTL everybody knows how weak the Russians are - them going to war is pure madness.

ITTL, Germany cannot violate Belgian neutrality either. The French-German border is however heavily fortified - and on the German side definitely favours the defender. I don't see the Germans on the offensive. As discussed before, Italy is likely to join the war. Therefore, France will have trench warfare in Lorraine, alpine warfare along the Italian frontier and a British blockade. French defeat by exhaustion.

 

[carlton_bach]

I've been following this for a long time - my compliments.

Question.

In the quote above, you implying that Germany has no further territorial expansion goals.

However, assuming that the Great War analog is coming - which seems like a reasonable assumption - and assuming that it lasts for a longish time (not necessarily as long as OTL's great war, but not on the timeline of a Austro-Prussian or Fraco-Prussian war), might the German public not demand territorial gains as retribution (especially if Germany does noes initiate the war)?

After three or more years of industrial warfare, allies / client states on Russian territory (assuming - well, it is going to be a Germanwank - that Germany wins) might not suffice to assauge the German public's desire for revenge.

Again, well done with the TL, eagerly awaiting the next updates.

TB-EI

Thanks. As to territorial claims - public opinion in Germany will clamour for those in any event, the more so the longer the war lasts. The German government knows that claiming them would be madness, though. Despite the fact that Poles and Alsatians are happier in this Germany than OTL's, they don't really feel German. Managing minority relations is a constant political headache. Wilhelm doesn't want more Poles, he certainly doesn't want any Russians, and he isn't mad enough to believve the Alldeutsche vision of German landlords ruling a contented Slavic peasant race on the boundless plains of Ostland. If poushed, I suppose he might go with annexing the Baltics, but privately, he would prefer to return Alsace-Lorraine to France and rule a German Germany (he has no intention to return Posen or West Prussia to Poland - he is Prussian, after all).

This is going to be a sore point because the conservative and bourgeois liberal parties will demand more than the government is going to get. And while a German victory is pretty much a given, it will not be as cheap or as quick as most military planners expect.

 

[carlton_bach]

If the UK supports Germany, as it is likely to do in this scenario, and given how Russo-German enmity seems to be overriding Franco-German enmity, I think there's a good chance, that the Eastern Front will still get the bulk of German manpower.

Given that Wilhelm would prefer to fight a one-front war if he has to, and has no designs on France, the plan for a two-front confrontation is to fight defensively in the West and offensively in the East. The idea is that Britain will claim the bulk of victories against France at sea and in the colonies and cut her lifelines while German troops bind the military might that would otherwise be ready to threaten British interests in the Mediterranean and Africa. Meanwhile, Britain would annoy Russia in Central Asia and the Far East, but it is Germany's job to knock it out of the war by inflicting land defeats.

If the French decide to come through Belgium, Germany has a problem, but not an insurmountable one. It would still be a hard war, though, and an expensive one.

 

[Cecil]

At this point in time OTL didnt the adopted warplan direct that very strategy? Offensive in the east and defence in the west? I tend to forget which year was what because they changed around quite a bit.

 

[The Blue-Eyed Infidel]

Thanks. As to territorial claims - public opinion in Germany will clamour for those in any event, the more so the longer the war lasts. The German government knows that claiming them would be madness, though. Despite the fact that Poles and Alsatians are happier in this Germany than OTL's, they don't really feel German. Managing minority relations is a constant political headache. Wilhelm doesn't want more Poles, he certainly doesn't want any Russians, and he isn't mad enough to believve the Alldeutsche vision of German landlords ruling a contented Slavic peasant race on the boundless plains of Ostland. If poushed, I suppose he might go with annexing the Baltics, but privately, he would prefer to return Alsace-Lorraine to France and rule a German Germany (he has no intention to return Posen or West Prussia to Poland - he is Prussian, after all).

This is going to be a sore point because the conservative and bourgeois liberal parties will demand more than the government is going to get. And while a German victory is pretty much a given, it will not be as cheap or as quick as most military planners expect.

Earlier in the TL you implied that the Baltics - or at least Estonia would be part of post-war Germany (something about SMS Reval in 1910, instead of when you had originally set it - implying that Estonia would be part of the German Empire at that time ITTL).

If there is a Grand Duchy of Livonia / United Baltic Duchy / Reichsland Kurland planned in the future, and Lithuania is not part of it (say they succeed in putting Wilhelm Karl von Urach, or another ITTL candidate, on the throne instead of being annexed), then I can see annexing territory in what is OTL present day Belarus to provide a land link to Livonia (or whatever the Germans end up calling it).

Wilhelm might not want do do so, but will he be able to prevail against public opinion after a long war?

Anyway, idle speculation, the war has yet to begin; looking forward to the next update.

TB-EI

 

[The Blue-Eyed Infidel]

A thought I had over lunch - is progress on the Haber-Bosch process ahead of OTL? Otherwise, Germany will be fairly dependent on Britain if the war does stretch out over any length of time ...

TB-EI

 

[Monty Burns]

Given that Wilhelm would prefer to fight a one-front war if he has to, and has no designs on France, the plan for a two-front confrontation is to fight defensively in the West and offensively in the East. The idea is that Britain will claim the bulk of victories against France at sea and in the colonies and cut her lifelines while German troops bind the military might that would otherwise be ready to threaten British interests in the Mediterranean and Africa. Meanwhile, Britain would annoy Russia in Central Asia and the Far East, but it is Germany's job to knock it out of the war by inflicting land defeats.

That's pretty much how I'd expect that war - at least ignoring the other minor powers. Quite likely AH and the Ottomans would also attack Russia, whereas the Italians also bind French troops.

If the French decide to come through Belgium, Germany has a problem, but not an insurmountable one. It would still be a hard war, though, and an expensive one.

The Belgium option is overrated for the French IMHO. The German border to Belgium is rather small, even adding Luxemburg doesn't make that much of a difference. Furthermore, that frontier goes through the Ardennes and the Eifel - not really perfect territory. If France wants to circumvent German lines and decide the war, they'd have to go for the Ruhr and hence through the Netherlands as well - and those will know it the day French troops enter Belgium.

Furthermore, I expect that Italy joins this war as well. The French won't have enough troops to fight the Germans in Lorraine, the Italians in the Alps, the British at sea, and stage an invasion through Belgium.

 

[Athelstane]

Hello Carlton,

Is there any change in the governance of Alsace and Lorraine in this timeline yet?

Is it still ruled directly as imperial Reichsland?

 

[Obfuscated]

That's pretty much how I'd expect that war - at least ignoring the other minor powers. Quite likely AH and the Ottomans would also attack Russia, whereas the Italians also bind French troops.



The Belgium option is overrated for the French IMHO. The German border to Belgium is rather small, even adding Luxemburg doesn't make that much of a difference. Furthermore, that frontier goes through the Ardennes and the Eifel - not really perfect territory. If France wants to circumvent German lines and decide the war, they'd have to go for the Ruhr and hence through the Netherlands as well - and those will know it the day French troops enter Belgium.

Furthermore, I expect that Italy joins this war as well. The French won't have enough troops to fight the Germans in Lorraine, the Italians in the Alps, the British at sea, and stage an invasion through Belgium.

The problem for french might lie in having started with an invasion through Belgium.

 

[Monty Burns]

The problem for french might lie in having started with an invasion through Belgium.

Now that's possible - although it's a great gamble. If they fail to reach the Ruhr area (which I assume), then they end up with a frontline against Germany almost as large as IOTL but only manned by themselves. We know how trench warfare works, the Germans will bleed them dry in short time.

 

[carlton_bach]

A thought I had over lunch - is progress on the Haber-Bosch process ahead of OTL? Otherwise, Germany will be fairly dependent on Britain if the war does stretch out over any length of time ...

TB-EI

Oh yes, it will. This is going to be one of the greatest headaches of the war and the reason Britain is going to be Europe's kingmaker. Unlike in OTL, though, Wilhelm is aware of the problem.

It's Germanwank, not German-multi-tentacle-dick-hentai.

 

[carlton_bach]

Hello Carlton,

Is there any change in the governance of Alsace and Lorraine in this timeline yet?

Is it still ruled directly as imperial Reichsland?

It is still a Reichsland, though the policies are slightly better and it got Reichsrat representation already. There are plans to convert it to full federal status, creating a duchy, but they are still in their infancy. Albert, for all his fair-mindedness and diplomacy, was fundamentally a caretaker and didn't change things unless he absolutely had to. Wilhelm loves changing stuff for the sake of it, but he's not yet secure enough in his job to do such things without very extensive consultation. Things will get better soon (soon enough? ... tune in for our next episode on AH.com - where what might have been, IS!)

 

[carlton_bach]

At this point in time OTL didnt the adopted warplan direct that very strategy? Offensive in the east and defence in the west? I tend to forget which year was what because they changed around quite a bit.

I've lost count of the official war plans, but anyway, they'd be different in very short order ITTL.

 

[carlton_bach]

22 January 1906, Paris

Justice to Victory!
Today, justice has taken the field in the courts of Paris to clasim voctory for the rights of man against tyranny and hubris. At issue are not the authorship of the war letters that have so greatlöy disturbed the peace and happiness of the French people. For all his protestations, this is clear as sunlight: this villainous and cowardly conspiracy against the life and property of hundreds of thousands sprung from the mind of Paul Deroulede. Nor, despite the claims of innocence, of forgery and betrayal, is it in truth how they came into the possession of this paper. No angel could have spoken clearer truth about their origins than we have, from the dasy of their first publication. No, the true object of the trial to begin today is to establish and lay out before the people of this repoublic and the eyes of the world how the current government is endangering the peace of Europe in the fading hope of riding to victory in the coming elections. Liars and tyrants, beware: The patriotic anger of the French people is an unstoppable force! At the end of this long and hard-fought battle, the truth will stand for all to see, and it will be them and their henchmen and followers that will need to fear the blows and bayonets of our great nation.

(L'Aurore)

 

[carlton_bach]

23 January 1906, Paris

The sunlight reflected on the snow outside bathed the room in brightness. Seated behind his desk, Gabriel Syveton, minister of foreign affairs, smiled ingratiatingly at his visitors. He had found another French tradition worth restoring to its former greatness.
“You understand that this may turn out an excessive liability in so dangerous a situation, of course.”, he explained. “Should the matter not be resolved in our favour – indeed, should it turn out that it adversely affects the person of the Prime Minister – it may be advantageous to consider a repositioning of the Ligue's candidates.”
Jules Guerin, seated to the left of the circle, nodded, quietly contented. He had always disliked Deroulede. The writer and journalist was a powerful man in the Ligue Patriotique's coalition, a voice the antisemitic vote would readily follow. With Deroulede's half-hearted policies and – worse – private admissions of lukewarm emotions on the matter of Jewish influence, he was increasingly becoming critical of the government. He would be worth having on board. Edouard Drumont, Depuoty for Algiers, looked more sceptical. He, too, was a veteran anti-Dreyfusard and noted orator, but politically more asture.
“Cavaignac would not have approved.” he pointed out. “The unity of the Ligue and the service of the country always came before personal ambition and ideological squabbling.”Still, he soundced more sceptical thann angry.
“Please, do not misunderstand me, Mr Drumont.” Syveton hastened to allay his worries. “I am not suggesting a coup or, God forbid, a vote of no confidence in the prime minister. I am merely concerned over our electoral prospects. as you said, the future of France must supersede any personal vanities. If Mr Deroulede can emerge from this spectacle with his reputation intact, I will be happy to support him in his second term. If not, though, we must consider how to best serbve our country, and I do not think this will be achieved by losing elections out of personal loyalty.”
Drumont nmodded cautiously. So did the others. Fully convincing them would be tough, Syveton knew, but he had them hooked.

 

[carlton_bach]

23 January 1906, Fontainebleau

“I agree, general. It is shameful in the extreme.” Albert Monniot commiserated expertly. The aspiring journalist was good at making people feel he agreed with them. He understood emotions. “Betrayed even by close friends. I can only guess what would happen if this was to create so much ill will that the Radicals do win the election.”
General Jean Roget looked dejected. “Itr is a terrible shame. Poor Paul. He is taking things well, isn't he?”
“Admirably, Sir.” Monniot reported. “He sends his warmest regards. Indeed, his very words to me were of you: 'While there are men like him in France, she cannot fail to prosper. I do not fear for her greatness, but only for her peace'. That is what he said. And he added that peace, to our nation, had often been at time of dissolution and demoralisation.”
Roget nodded thoughtfully. “It's true, young man.” he affirmed. “I do sometimes pity this generation of yours that never saw a battlefield. True, we were very far from the glories of the great Napoleon, but we fought well and manfully, and France today has a world empire that is the fruit of that school's teachings. What will the next decades bring for?”
Monniot raised his glass. “General, I can no more see the future than you, but I, for my part, believe that this generation of mine can and will learn these lessons of virtue and stand up to its enemies, foreign and domestic. While there are honourable men in France, there will be glory to be gained. To the greatest Frenchman, general: to Napoleon, and may his example guide us all.”
Roget smiled and drank.

 

[Jotun]

Pompous, arrogant fools...invoking one of the worst criminals in Europe's history that definitely isn't duffering from a lack of those They deserve whatever bad luck is in store for them.

 

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

Sorry, but I cannot agree. Napoleon was not a criminal. His only crime was, that he was no royality. His whole foreign policy was not so different from that of the other sovereigns of his time.

 

[Vingilótë]

I agree with Barbarossa in this regard, even as someone who rooted largely against him and his doings, bar domestic policy, I believe it's impossible to not have professional respect for his accomplishments in military, and in particular, for someone routinely named tyrant, he was never a particularly, well, tyrannical person, except in foreign policy. Which, as stated, leaves him no worse than any other leader at the time.