Exactly. As he would lead a different life than his OTL one no reason for keeping his early deathThe PoD.
So "butterfly knock-on": Ernest lives another 20 or 30 years and has children.
Max can not do much than accept the status quo, but forbidding any kind of inheritance of Prussia outside the direct male line (intending for it to be restored to the Order). His nephew and successor (in Poland) will take it back for Poland and will compensate the OrderSo there is some knock-on leading to Maximilian defeating Sigismund III Vasa... This is going to be very awkward, because as Grand Master, how can he accept the alienation of Prussia from the Order and receive secular homage from the Protestant Duke of Prussia? If he does not, either he makes war on Prussia to restore the Order, or concedes the de facto independence of Prussia. If he does, the Pope and the rest of the Order will be very annoyed with him.
ISTM that depends on how he wins the succession war. If the outcome of the Battle of Byczyna is reversed, with Sigismund Vasa's army destroyed and him captured (instead of Max as OTL), then what's to stop Max from restoring the Order in Prussia?Max can not do much than accept the status quo...
Why wouldn't the Order simply claim the territory? For one thing, I would expect the Order to contribute to Max's expedition. I don't know of any military activities by the Catholic rump of the Order after the end of the Order state in 1525, but that doesn't mean there weren't any. So there could have been a contingent of knights of the Order in Max's army, with the intent of regaining Prussia for the Order.but forbidding any kind of inheritance of Prussia outside the direct male line (intending for it to be restored to the Order).
There is no battle. Here Maximilian won the election and was accepted as KingISTM that depends on how he wins the succession war. If the outcome of the Battle of Byczyna is reversed, with Sigismund Vasa's army destroyed and him captured (instead of Max as OTL), then what's to stop Max from restoring the Order in Prussia?
Why wouldn't the Order simply claim the territory? For one thing, I would expect the Order to contribute to Max's expedition. I don't know of any military activities by the Catholic rump of the Order after the end of the Order state in 1525, but that doesn't mean there weren't any. So there could have been a contingent of knights of the Order in Max's army, with the intent of regaining Prussia for the Order.
ISTR a reference to Max as a moderate Catholic, like Matthias but unlike Ferdinand. But how "moderate" could he be? He took and kept the vows of the Order, which ISTM shows strong religious feelings. Wiki sez "he proved to be a solid proponent of the Counter-Reformation." And the status quo in Prussia isn't just widespread practice of Lutheran heresy, it's usurpation of the authority of the Order by an illegitimate "Duke".
What all this means (IMO) is that with Max as King, the Polish crown will join the Counter-Reformation. and come down very hard on Prussia.
If you mean the kidney stone, I agree, but it makes him a clean slate as well. Ernst becoming King of the Romans, especially after he marries Isabella and sires children, he will be the natural heir of Rudolf II (who did have bastard children though). As for deposing Rudolf II, I quoted a subsequent post of yours, also even Matthias didn't depose Rudolf II as Emperor, he just replaced him in all his domains, making him a landless Emperor).
Hence, why I would think Ernst will be inclined to replace his brother, maybe not replacing him formally directly, but as regent in his domains and as Reichsverweser and later King of the Romans in the Empire.
Both his madness or perceived one, but also his religious policies. Religious tolerance, out of necessity is one thing for the Habsburgs, but formal religious as IOTL granted by Rudolf II was a bridge too far and infringed on the "Cuius Regio, Eius Religio" rights of the Habsburgs in their dynastic lands.
The problem by recombining Burgundy with the Austrian Habsburg Lands, is that it is a two or even threeway war. France , the Ottoman Empire, but also the Dutch Revolt. Even if the Burgundian Netherlands will be restored, the double threat of France and the Ottomans will remain. To minimize this the Austrian Habsburgs need to regain the whole kingdom of Hungary. Both threats will remain, but then the Ottoman dagger aimed at Vienna will be removed, Brussels unfortunately, will always remain within the reach of Paris.
I fully agree with you, the years of rule of Rudolf II were very harmful for the Habsburgs ( which I remember to be many since I governed from 1576 to 1612, even if from 1606 he was losing power compared to Matthias ), as they did not take advantage of France in full civil / religious war to introduce a vigorous Counter-Reformation in the archducal lands that could weaken the Protestant nobility in their domains and at the same time at the same time not to give any pretext for the Imperial princes to actively intervene in the internal Habsburg politics to the rescue of their religious counterparts ( which Otl unfortunately caused the 30YW ), if Matthias or Ernest could take Rudolf's place earlier, Austria would not she would be found in the Otl situation with Ferdinand II and Bohemia ( because after all the boy was only asserting the Cuius Regio Cuius Religio and removing the enormous privileges granted by Rudolph to the Bohemian nobility ( mainly Protestant ) which represented a serious obstacle to the royal government )