If the republicans were to put a woman as a candidate for POTUS what will be the earliest that they can do it and who will it be?
Earliest Republican female POTUS candidate
- Thread starter Vishnustarlord
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If GWB loses in 2000, then a slight chance for Elizabeth Dole in 2004, otherwise Nikki Haley in 2024.
Not sure if this goes in the political section or not, but a more successful tea party could lead to Sarah Palin running for President on the Republican ticket?
- Clare Boothe Luce served in the House IOTL from 1943-1947. 1946 was a very good year for Republicans. It's possible that she could have run for and won that Senate election. It was an open seat. In addition to her political acumen, she was a socialite married to the powerful Henry Luce. It could have prompted a Sec. of State nomination from Eisenhower (again, this is unlikely but theoretically possible) or a VP nomination from Nixon, leading to election or ascension.
- Margaret Chase Smith ran in 1960. It's theoretically possible Nixon could have chosen her for Vice President in 1960, or, if he won, as Secretary of State. Both are unlikely, but they could have raised her profile enough to make her a viable presidential contender in 1968. (Or, if she ascended into the presidency 1963ish)
- Shirley Temple Black is always a go-to favorite. She ran in a special election for Congress in 1967. It's possible that if she had won that, you could see her waging a presidential campaign in the 1980s depending on butterflies. She would only be 52 in 1980, meaning she could potentially be nominated anywhere in the 1980-1996 range.
- Millicent Fenwick was the front runner for the Senate in 1982 in New Jersey. Unfortunately, her age at the time complicates a presidential ascension. It's definitely possible to tinker with her career earlier to get her to a place where she could be a 1980-1984 frontrunner (again, difficult but not impossible).
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Margaret Chase Smith seems like the easiest potentially-probable one. She'd be a good running mate to Reagan in 68, I think, given his efforts to present himself as a more palatable Goldwater.
Maybe Jill Rucklshaus if Ford chooses her husband to be VP in 76.
@Vidal Clare Boothe Luce is a good idea, if unlikely.
Maybe Jill Rucklshaus if Ford chooses her husband to be VP in 76.
@Vidal Clare Boothe Luce is a good idea, if unlikely.
Anne Armstrong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne_Armstrong is Gerald Ford's running mate in 1976. (There was considerable talk about her.) Thanks to her (rather than the divisive and partisan Bob Dole) being on the ticket, Ford carries a few more states (including Armstrong's Texas) and wins. In 1980 Armstrong is nominated for president by the GOP. Or of course she could even become president earlier if Ford is assassinated or dies in some accident.
People have mentioned Margaret Chase Smith (she ran in 1964). There's also Elizabeth Dole, Christine Todd Whitman, Clare Booth Luce, Millicent Fenwick who have been mentioned above as well. Always a possibility is Condi Rice.
But Margaret Chase Smith* is probably the best bet. She was seriously considered as Eisenhower's VP in 1952, made an impressive run in 1964, and kept up even after she lost in 1972 for the Senate seat (the first election she ever lost). Bernard Baruch said, after her Declaration of Conscience speech in the House, that if she were a man and gave that speech that she'd be President. The easiest answer would be for her be Eisenhower's VP in 1952, have her run in 1960, and serve two terms.
* She was Representative from Maine 1940-49, US Senator for Maine 1949-73, and had solid civil rights credentials, as well as a vehement anti-Communist. Member of the House Naval Affairs Committee, the House Armed Services Committee, and the Senate Armed Services Committee. She was a strong supporter of the space program (James Webb, administrator for NASA, said that they would never have been able to land on the moon had it not been for Smith), Medicare, and educational funding. She was even commissioned as a Lt. Colonel in the Air Force Reserve in 1950, a big supporter of the US Navy, and is considered the Mother of the WAVES (Women Accepted for Volunteer Emergency Service; the Women's branch of the US Naval Reserve).
But Margaret Chase Smith* is probably the best bet. She was seriously considered as Eisenhower's VP in 1952, made an impressive run in 1964, and kept up even after she lost in 1972 for the Senate seat (the first election she ever lost). Bernard Baruch said, after her Declaration of Conscience speech in the House, that if she were a man and gave that speech that she'd be President. The easiest answer would be for her be Eisenhower's VP in 1952, have her run in 1960, and serve two terms.
* She was Representative from Maine 1940-49, US Senator for Maine 1949-73, and had solid civil rights credentials, as well as a vehement anti-Communist. Member of the House Naval Affairs Committee, the House Armed Services Committee, and the Senate Armed Services Committee. She was a strong supporter of the space program (James Webb, administrator for NASA, said that they would never have been able to land on the moon had it not been for Smith), Medicare, and educational funding. She was even commissioned as a Lt. Colonel in the Air Force Reserve in 1950, a big supporter of the US Navy, and is considered the Mother of the WAVES (Women Accepted for Volunteer Emergency Service; the Women's branch of the US Naval Reserve).
Condi wouldn't be able to shake the stench of the Bush administration.
Palin would work if McCain had beaten Obama (although that almost requires an ASB). Then she apprentices under McCain and eventually runs herself. Might also work if she hadn't been rushed to the majors.
Kristi Noem, Joni Ernst, and Nikki Haley are all possibilities for 2024.
Palin would work if McCain had beaten Obama (although that almost requires an ASB). Then she apprentices under McCain and eventually runs herself. Might also work if she hadn't been rushed to the majors.
Kristi Noem, Joni Ernst, and Nikki Haley are all possibilities for 2024.
A Palin idea is if Murkowski appoints her instead of his daughter, Lisa, to the Senate. In theory, it's possible that a Senate role (maybe an armed services appointment) places important briefing information in front of her for at least a few years (if she returns to primary Murkowski in 06/the strain of being in Washington is too much on the Palin family) or for 6-18 years if she does multiple terms.
Claire Booth Luce and Shirley Temple Black were both famous and wealthy women but essentially were political amateurs without the critical gravitas necessary to overcome the barriers against a woman candidacy in their times. Margaret Chase Smith was an impressive politician and fully qualified for the Presidency, but from a small state and clearly too liberal for even the more ideological diverse GOP of the 50's and 60's. Even more so for Millicent, far too liberal for the 80's GOP even if she had won the Senate seat in '82. I'll still stand by Dole as the earliest qualified and party-acceptable candidate. Vidal's comment about Palin is interesting. Given what happened in 2016, she could have been a contender despite her family issues and other baggage. Getting picked by McCain was the worst thing that could have happened her, a combination of both 'too much too soon' and 'the wrong place and time'.
Make a POD in the 1930s/40s and wait a few decades, then someone born after the POD can fit the role
IMO there is no way the GOP is going to nominate Margaret Chase Smith in 1964--or indeed any woman before the 1970's (and even in the 1970's I think the only way to get a woman president would be by getting Anne Armstrong elected vice-president first). Why do I say that? Well, Gallup has for decades questioned voters on whether if their party nominated a (hypothetically well-qualified and ideologically acceptable) member of Group X for president, they would vote for him or her. https://news.gallup.com/poll/4729/presidency.aspx Here is the result for a hypothetical woman nominee:
As late as 1969, 40 percent of the voters said outright that they would not vote for a woman (though hypothetically well-qualified) if their party nominated one! Remember these are people openly saying they won't vote for a woman--and to that you have to add an indeterminate number of voters who don't want to say so, but in fact would reject a woman candidate. There is just no way a party is going to nominate a candidate that at least 40 percent of the party's voters would automatically rule out voting for!
As late as 1969, 40 percent of the voters said outright that they would not vote for a woman (though hypothetically well-qualified) if their party nominated one! Remember these are people openly saying they won't vote for a woman--and to that you have to add an indeterminate number of voters who don't want to say so, but in fact would reject a woman candidate. There is just no way a party is going to nominate a candidate that at least 40 percent of the party's voters would automatically rule out voting for!
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Here's an idea: Shirley Temple Black wins a House seat in 1967. Nine years later, running for the Senate, she helps convince fellow Republican leaders to nominate Ronald Reagan over Gerald Ford. Although Reagan loses the election to Carter, Black is elected to the Senate. In 1980, after three years in the Senate, Black wins the Republican nomination and defeats President Carter.
I actually disagree with this. I think that Smith could have managed a win in the 1960s, especially if she's served as Eisenhower's VP. She could have easily made in-roads with the liberal and moderate wings (the Rockefeller Republicans were still strong in that era, though they were in decline) and agree to certain conservative Republican points. Eisenhower himself was a moderate Republican, along with Rockefeller, Dewey, Nixon, Hatfield, Percy, Javits, and Brooke.
I will agree the small state angle will hurt her, but (especially) if she's a former VP it'll help that she can paint herself as the heir to Eisenhower's legacy. A Smith/Dirksen ticket would be interesting and I think a good pairing.
What about Ellen Sauerbrey? She almost became governor of Maryland in 1994, losing by only 6.000 votes. If she won that race, she could run for president in 2000 or 2004, in the latter year challenging Gore's reelection if he defeats Bush.
sprite
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The problem with this data, is that these numbers would be different after seeing a woman in a semi-presidential role in an earlier timeframe. It might not make a huge difference, but a Secretary of State Booth Luce in the sixties might shift things.
It would have to be a lot more sucessful She was pretty much a nobody when picked for VP.
At a minimum that requires her staying in office as governor and being reelected in 2010, really working on policy issues, and keeping her family's life under control. Also helps if Tina Fey is butterflied away. She was very popular among cultural conservatives despite (or maybe because) of the reaction to her. I recall seeing her in the Sarah Fisher pits at the Indy 500 (I think it was 2013) and the response to her was enthusiastic.