Do the Arabs develop and spread like the Vikings without Islam?

Depends. More coastal areas could raid India which is usually significantly less defended than the massive empires of the levant. The Jewish kingdoms of the Himyars could unify a lot of the surrounding tribes, or the Himyars could move into Ethiopia and become basically Jewish Swahili. However, the Byzantines and Sassanids both have a vested interest in maintaining influence as far as they can, and if one or the other cracks Arabia will fall not long after.
 
Do you really think they can assimilate the regions of Judea, Egypt and Syria-Palestina that easily? I could see what happened in the Western Europe(Romance languages) happening here too. That is the invaders would melt into the Aramaic, Greek, Coptic speakers and adopt their languages with some modifications.
Yes and no, because the spread of Arabs north was ongoing in Late Antiquity and places like Petra and modern southern Iraq were already Arab. So the fringes of the fertile parts of this area would likely be thoroughly Arab. The rest would be absorbed but they'd leave a huge linguistic legacy on Coptic and Aramaic.

And without being united, I think they will be defeated like anything by the Byzantines.
If they can consolidate their states (the two big ones would be Syria--minus most of Iraq of course even though the Arabs would try--and Egypt) maybe propped up by Persia as buffers, then they could do pretty well even if they won't be marching to gates of Constantinople like the OTL Caliphate.

I think the big question is, regardless of their own religion, do they allow religious toleration? That was a major factor in their conquest of Palestine/Syria and Egypt - they offered the local Christians (and Jews) more toleration than the Romans had.
Arabia was religiously diverse before Islam so the odds are high they would. They'd have a lot of advantage in converting to local Syriac/Coptic churches since that would give them a lot of support from the population.
 
Now, this makes me wonder if the ATL "Viking Islam" happened, with Vikings having unifying religion, while Arabs being turned into massed raiders who attacked many areas in Near East, but ultimately absorbed by the Persians/Egyptians/Romans.
Hadn't they also already been established as prominent traders ?
 
Now, this makes me wonder if the ATL "Viking Islam" happened, with Vikings having unifying religion, while Arabs being turned into massed raiders who attacked many areas in Near East, but ultimately absorbed by the Persians/Egyptians/Romans.
One of the first alternate history shared-world timelines was "Submission", created in 2001 on the old soc.history.what-if Usenet group, based on exactly that premise:
https://submission-timeline-wiki.fandom.com/wiki/Submission_Timeline_Wiki
https://submission-timeline-wiki.fandom.com/wiki/Submission_posts
 
The Arabic conquest where not out of this world
The arabs in their early years where like the many nomadic conquerors before them and after
The difference is that the arbs unlike many did not assimilate ( except in Persia )
But even then they imposed their culture


Without Islam there is really no strong cultural link to keep the arabs united
An Arab from petra is not the same as an Arab from Mecca , and Arab from palestine is not the same as one from njran
Etc
So it's safe to say the arabs would assimilate in to Roman and Persian culture
Mostly Roman since it's closer geographicly and arabian peganisim was dying out
 
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The Arabic conquest where not out of this world
The arabs in their early years where like the many nomadic conquerors before them and after
The difference is that the arbs unlike many

Without Islam there is really no strong cultural link to keep the arabs united
An Arab from petra is not the same as an Arab from Mecca , and Arab from palestine is not the same as one from njran
Etc
So it's safe to say the arabs would assimilate in to Roman and Persian culture
Mostly Roman since it's closer geographicly and arabian peganisim was dying out
Arab paganism was most certainly not dying out... It had outlasted Judaism in Yemen and dominated the entire region aside from the far northern sectors of the peninsula (which is disputed, it is not assured that the entire populaces of the Lakhmids were Nestorian or otherwise Christian, many of them remained pagan.
 
I have heard it suggested that plenty of the Eastern Roman provinces contained if not majority Arabs significant minorities of Arabs by the time of the Arab conquests
Which provinces? Do you have a source? Egypt, Syria, and North Africa were certainly not majority-Arab before the advent of Islam. Arabia Petraea is the only example I can think of, but that goes without saying.
 
Arab paganism was most certainly not dying out... It had outlasted Judaism in Yemen and dominated the entire region aside from the far northern sectors of the peninsula (which is disputed, it is not assured that the entire populaces of the Lakhmids were Nestorian or otherwise Christian, many of them remained pagan.
Peganisim by Mohamed Time was ok in the south
The north was orthodox and nestorian via the lakmids and the ghassinds
The northen tribes (at least most of them ) where nestorian by this point

One of the richest tribes where the 3 Jewish tribes of medina


But you are right in one regard it wouldn't be a simple task converting all of the pagans I say it would be like the vikings they would convert in some decades or centuries
 
Peganisim by Mohamed Time was ok in the south
The north was orthodox and nestorian via the lakmids and the ghassinds
The northen tribes (at least most of them ) where nestorian by this point

One of the richest tribes where the 3 Jewish tribes of medina


But you are right in one regard it wouldn't be a simple task converting all of the pagans I say it would be like the vikings they would convert in some decades or centuries
The religion of the Lakhmid rulers was Nestorian, not necessarily their entire host, which was heterodox and constantly gaining new members from the south. They were certainly not simply bastions of Nestorianism, there was a more diverse background to Arab religious life at this time, especially among the more traditionalist Lakhmids, than in the Ghassanids. Jewish tribes existed certainly, but these were a strong minority, which were allied to the ruling 'pagan' elites.
 
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