What is the North up to?
As Đàng Trong slowly transformed itself under a new light, Đàng Ngoài seemed to be falling behind. This was a misconception, after all. The news of Đàng Trong crushing the forces of Siam and securing its hegemony over Khmer alarmed the Trịnh Lords, who were locked in a cold war-esque atmosphere with their Nguyễn counterparts, that the South was increasingly powerful. It’s the time for the North to up their game if they wish to continue competing with the South.
Historical Background
Đàng Ngoài was the Northern counterpart of the Nguyễn, with the head of state as the Lê Emperor and the head of government as the Trịnh Lords. While in Confucian nations, the establishment is that the emperor wields the power and those under take responsibility in implementing the emperor’s will, this was not the case for the North. In fact, the de facto power was in the hands of the Trịnh, and the Lê Emperor only acted as figurative royal. This was a wise move, for if one tried to usurp the Emperor to take the (rightful) throne, it meant total disaster - both politically and militarily. Essentially, the people could rise up to fight against the recent usurper and China would intervene, in the name of protecting the rightful Emperor. [1]
How powerful were the Trịnh Lords? The Lord was powerful enough to enforce his will on the Emperor, aside from managing major domestic/foreign affairs and leading the military. He made decisions on selecting the right Prince for the Lê’s throne, usually those that would agree with the Trịnh. In other words, the Emperor had almost no control over choosing his successor. This maintained political stability by reducing the chance of the Lê Emperor going against the wishes of the Trịnh, while broadening the Lord’s power base.
The Trịnh further distinguished themselves from the Nguyễn in terms of their ruling style. Trịnh Lords had a more back-down foreign policy, refraining from expansion and focusing their efforts on maintaining relations with Siam and the Qing, a contrast with the Nguyễn's more expansionist approach. As well, they were strongly Confucian and distant with the Westerners. By the time the Nguyễn began furthering their relations with Westerners and renewed their trades, the Trịnh barely had any more contact with their former allies - the Dutch and the Englishman, who stopped trading with the North by the late 17th century, at the time when the Trịnh-Nguyễn civil war finally died down.
Economically, the Trịnh and the North enjoyed a semi-open economy, which was still heavily agrarian-based. Trades flourished in the 17th century, with significant and frequent contacts were made with the Westerners. Craft products were also increasingly ubiquitous as part of their domestic market, which contributed to their great prosperity during most of the 17th Century. Unlike their Southern counterpart, which actively relied on both peasants and traders to populate their domain, the North saw little in encouraging trades further, as their lands were at maximum population capacity. But this was not the main reason for their failing economy later on. It was due to complicated and bloated taxation requirements - much more than that of the South - put on businesses which slowly stagnated trade flows, which further compounded by prolonged corruption and neglection.
Originally, the Trịnh Lords were wise and competent, and tended to select the most capable heir for the Lordship. By doing this, the Trịnh enjoyed great stability for more than a century, gaining great respects from the people. The Trịnh’s power base began to decline in the 18th century, when the Lords began to express disinterest in politics and drifted towards joy and pleasures more than anything else. Later historians usually referred to this as the rotting of the Trịnh, a strongly degenerate term.
The Reign of Trịnh Sâm
The Trịnh began to experience turbulence from the 1730s, when peasant rebellions became commonplace. For the next few decades, clearing the rebels was the main goal of the Trịnh, and by 1767, the Trịnh had successfully crushed most of them. When Trịnh Sâm reigned in 1767, he pushed for eliminating the last of the rebellion. By 1769, peace had returned to the North, but the lengthy turbulent eras had drained much resources from development. Furthermore, there were many famines, especially during the 1740s, [2] and another shall come soon.
Trịnh Sâm knew that he must do something to stabilize politics and improve the well-being of the people. With this, he maintained the reformist policies by his predecessor - Trịnh Doanh - which were mostly cutting down excessive ground rent, taxes reforms and fighting corruption, as well as recruiting competent mandarins for managing domestic affairs. This line of reforms was analogous to what the Nguyễn did during the years 1765-1770, but the outcomes were different. The still rigid and Confucian-grounded mindset of the North prevented meaningful economic changes that could stem from these reforms.
In OTL, around 1771 onwards, the Tây Sơn rebellion happened. But ITTL, the Tây Sơn declared loyalty to the Nguyễn Lords. Without the rebellion, the Trịnh Lord could not invade Đàng Trong and capture parts of the South, and instead the rising powers of the Nguyễn had greatly worried the North. Not wanting to fall behind the Nguyễn, Trịnh Sâm decided to expand the military that was still fresh from suppressing the rebellions. To find the budget for this project, Sâm recruited the help of Lê Quý Đôn, a mandarin well-known for his tabulating ability [3]. Unfortunately, Đôn was strict and would never let a dime slip during surveying lands for later ground rents collection. Although this sufficiently filled the coffers for the military build up, the peasants bore new grudges against the mandarin as the strict taxation rolled through. Clearly, the economy could not support military expansion without taking some tolls.
Disaster struck again in 1776. A new wave of drought was brought to the North, causing widespread crop failure and subsequent famines. The North-Central region, also known as Nghệ-Thanh provinces, suffered greatly from the catastrophe. Compounded by the tax burden, destabilization started to set in, with trusts for the Trịnh waned day by day. The prolonged famine dragged into 1777, forcing the Lord to open rice reserves for the dying people. Trịnh Sâm still had more troubles to come.
The Northern Political Chaos - by Records of the Imperial Lê
The Trịnh’s political chaos was a multifactor issue. Trịnh Sâm was notorious for chasing beautiful women and turning them into consorts, something that greatly distracted him from more pressing problems. His favorite consort - Đặng Thị Huệ - was a woman of perfect beauty and powerful personality, and henceforth procuring a persuasive sway on the Lord. Trịnh Sâm, for his love of Huệ, could hardly say no to her. Sâm became even more entrenched with Huệ when the consort gave birth to a healthy [4] son, named Trịnh Cán in 1777. Meanwhile, Sâm’s older son, the supposed to be in line Trịnh Công, was estranged further. The seed of schism, sowed by the favorite consort, now grew to permanently split the Trịnh forever. By the time Prince Công was eighteen, factions formed.
Consort Huệ, using her intelligence, began scheming with her loyal Duke to guarantee her son could become the next Trịnh Lord. Trịnh Công, not wanting to be taken away from his supposedly rightful throne, worked with his mother to build their faction. The game of thrones started, even if Lord Trịnh Sâm was still ruling. By 1780, when Trịnh Sâm’s health deteriorated considerably under the combination of stress and pressure from governing, the dispute for Lordship reached a new height. The two factions now wished to destroy one another when the chance was right. That opportunity came when Lord Trịnh Sâm passed away in 1783 [5], due to illness, leaving the throne wide open. While officially, his son Trịnh Cán would be the next Lord, this was unfortunately against the wishes of many.
In the next few months, political disputes erupted. Trịnh Công, with the backing of the Tri-Palace Royal [6] soldiers, some mandarins, and his status as the oldest son of Trịnh Sâm, decided to make a coup against the young Trịnh lord so that he could take the throne. It was a success, as Cán’s side were significantly disadvantaged, allowing Trịnh Công to defeat and kill many of Cán’s supporters. The year 1783 had seen the rise of two Lords, and now Công had finally taken the Lord’s position. Trịnh Cán was forced to abdicate and reduced to mere prince, while his mother Thị Huệ was reduced back to peasant. The coup was, however, a detrimental blow to the North’s stability.
The Royal soldiers, filled with haughty and pride, and being disproportionately privileged, began abusing their powers [7]. It was commonly said that these soldiers, if taken their privileges away, would immediately rebel and due to their sheer powers in their hands, pose a national security threat. So, upon taking the Lordship, Trịnh Công - now Trịnh Khải - had to reward these soldiers. Consequently, these soldiers, already lacking in moral and sense of duty, grew to be further degenerate. This vicious cycle continued, and the balance was pushed to the breaking point, beyond which chaos shall engulf the Northern political landscape.
The unbalanced economy was also stretched, with the Trịnh still wished to keep the large military in the face of the growing Nguyễn’s power, but economic growth was severely limited. On the other hand, power abuses from Royal soldiers continued, leading to them trying to back the Lê Princes and threatening Trịnh Khải’s power base. These compounded problems effectively nullified the Trịnh’s power to bring order back, even with the help of some excellent mandarins. From 1784, the fragile economy took hard hits and caused more famines, conflicts, chaos. By 1786, Đàng Ngoài’s days were numbered, and the Nguyễn Lords were preparing to end their enemies once and for all, uniting the Viet nation under the banner of Lê and the leadership of Nguyễn.
[1] - The Chinese dynasties required that the smaller neighboring countries should be obeying its hegemony and sphere of influence. This means, if one seeked to become a legitimate King of one such country, one should ask for “permission” from the Chinese emperors.
[2] - Famines were common in Northern Vietnam, especially in the North-Central provinces due to geographic conditions conducive to Fohn wind and extreme weather (typhoons).
[3] - Also called the great scientist/great scholar. Just a small detail that I like to annotate.
[4] - Due to butterflies, this Trịnh Cán is different from OTL one. Just slightly so.
[5] - Trịnh Sâm was recorded to have health problems when he turned 40, including hemorrhoids, a certain illness which made him afraid of going outside, and those arose out of unrestrained sexual life.
[6] - Rough translation of a special Royal regiment utilized by the Trịnh Lords, who were lavishly rewarded.
[7] - Happened in OTL, and was one of the main reasons why the Trịnh finally collapsed.
[8] - General comment: No, I am not actively screwing up the Trịnh. All the historical elements were there and still existed in this TL, as most of them happened before the POD (1764).