Descendants of the Dragons and Fairies - Volume I: One Inch Missed, One Mile Fixed

Prologue
DESCENDANTS OF THE DRAGONS AND FAIRIES
Prologue

Vietnam as a country has quite a significant position in the history of the world, something that could be attributed to its geographic location, culture and proximity to many great powers. The South China Sea, where Vietnam is located west of, is among the most contested regions in the world, and the volume of traffic moving through its water is estimated to be valued at three trillion dollars. Southeast Asia is densely populated, and its metropolitans are among the largest in the world, though not in terms of GDP. Vietnam, in particular, has multiple deep sea ports directly in contact with the South China Sea, which means economically, it is convenient to build manufacturing centers and urban areas in such places. And its major deltas - Mekong Delta and Red River Delta - produce a significant amount of foods to sustain nearly one-hundred million people, and manage to compete with Thailand in terms of total rice output.

History has shown that the Viets, given their geopolitically decent location, have suffered from constant conflicts. In fact, the nation has experienced just slightly more than 700 years of peace, while three times as long of that was spent on conflicts, or to defend the nation as the Viets have always proudly put it. The Chinese had always wanted to annex Dai Nam ever since the Han Dynasty reached Tonkin, and for thousands of years, repeatedly invaded the Viets, more than perhaps any other of their neighbors. Even as China declined in the 19th Century, the Viet did not catch any break, when the French became interested in Indochina. French involvement in Indochina during the mid-19th century sparked an intense and bloody era of wars a century later, in which their desire to regain control for Asian colonies backfired massively in the First Indochina War. The Americans, in their geopolitical analysis about the importance in controlling Indochina, took over the French, but failed to defeat the North Vietnamese in the Vietnam War and subsequently no longer got a strong foothold on Vietnam. The country has since still had tensions, not with the West, but with China, mostly disputes over controls in the East Sea that sometimes escalate to violations.

Being somewhat of an odd one out in Southeast Asia for its strong adherence to Confucianism and a high degree of Sinicization, while its geography is rather convenient for trades, Vietnam has endured many struggles to retain its identity and independence. Yet, it does seem that Vietnam is somewhat overlooked in many alternate histories, being relegated to a role of minor importance despite the history could tell otherwise. To take this with a grain of salt, this is more of a combination of my own national bias and limited scope on AH literatures that I have read, so I apologize in advance if anyone feels awkward or uncomfortable by my poor and ignorant judgements.

I have always thought which path in history could my nation take to become an industrialized nation, much like Japan, by around the 1850s. Then, I realize that the period which I consider to play the major role in permanently establishing the fate of Vietnam in the 19th and 20th centuries was the era of late Trinh-Nguyen War, in which the downfall of the prosperous Dang Trong caused much upheavals for nearly four decades. After such period, the Nguyen returned to take back their rightful Kingdom. Unfortunately, the new Dynasty slowly sank under conservatism and continued to uphold the backward Confucian institutions, which could be partially sympathized if one were Gia Long (the first Nguyen Emperor), whose nation’s suzerainty was increasingly being challenged by the French already by the 1820s. I also realized that the cause of Dang Trong’s downfall was actually quite pin-pointed, and with my friends, I then asked the question - “What if Dang Trong had continued in peace, where subsequent chaos was prevented?”

It is also my desire to craft a timeline in which the Viets could find themselves as neither another minor country nor pawn of other Great Powers, but rather a major player in world history, where the nation could punch beyond its weight, much like Japan following its Meiji. This project will roll out the potentials of Vietnam as a rich source of PoD, and how its rise to prominence will permanently shape the world’s history. With such a notion in mind, the TL will feature careful examinations of Dai Viet as the nation unfolds over the course of history, and detailed updates for the rest of the world. Butterflies will be considered logically as I move the timeline forwards, but expect a lot of changes after several decades. After some point, when the divergences have mounted up so much, I will use randomness to decide the fates of certain swing countries. The style will mostly be encyclopedic and chronological, with some semi-narrative writings scattered over the TL to give a first-person, close up view of history, and supplementary thematic updates to cover various non-political, non-cultural topics such as science and technology.

On a final note, the title Descendants of the Dragons and Fairies is the literal translation of the proverb which Vietnamese usually refer to themselves.
 
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Yes it is! So much things come out of such a tiny country haha
Yeah, and you kind of beat me to the race of creating a Vietnamese tl. My POD is way back in the Le Dynasty though. But I'm genuinely happy about a new pre-colonial Vietnamese tl on this site. (The other is a Tay Son timeline by @Solomi, but it sadly died)
 
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Yeah, and you kind of beat me to the race of creating a Vietnamese tl. My POD is way back in the Le Dynasty though.
The Le is a great place to start as well (saving Nguyen Trai or preventing the Mac). But the Nguyen have some really interesting dynamics with the European powers that will give much ramifications, per my subjective view. Though, I would love to see such idea getting executed.
 
Prelude: The Fateful Slip
PRELUDE

Dai Viet is a hot and humid tropical country, full of biological activities. One has to be careful here, lest the pathogens would take any chance to jump at them and make them sick, and with an 18th century medicine, death was ready to swoop in. Such fate was unfortunately befalling on a Prince of the Nguyen. He was a tad bit careless that day, on a monsoonal rain of late summer, early autumn outside Phu Xuan, year 1764. He slipped and injured himself. An opened wound manifested, and the wound touched the dirty rain water contaminated with the mixture of dirt and possibly some feces of other animals. It was a perfect concoction to create an infection, which the mandarin would soon experience several days later.

The Prince was sick. He had high fever, and the wound had transformed into a gangrene. The underdeveloped medicine of Dai Viet was helpless at treating the terrible infection, one that only till the middle of 20th century could fix effectively. And the next few days saw the Prince went into septic shock, eventually giving up his life after two weeks since the fateful slip. While it would be a grievance for his families and associated officials of the Nguyen Lords, if one knows this Prince, they would say this would be a blessing for the Viet people later on. This Prince was known to the contemporary Viets as Truong Phuc Loan, a corrupt, greedy and cunning man who was known in OTL to embezzle Dang Trong throughout 1765 - 1771 so badly that the nation went bankrupt and forced the Nguyen Lords down to collapse through a violent peasant rebellion, and they emerged later by 1802 to see their country in a much worse shape, which was thought to lay the foundation for a generally conservative atmosphere of the Nguyen Dynasty.

But now, as Truong Phuc Loan was out of the picture, so were his detrimental influences. The Nguyen Lords continued with their capable successor – Nguyen Phuc Luan – a determined, visionary and intelligent Lord, as historians had written down to glorify him. In 1765, he reigned as the Ninth Nguyen Lord, at the age of 32, and would carry on his vision to bring Dang Trong towards a new era, unprecedented in Viet history.

The PoD may sound a bit fictional, but given a relatively not-so-detail accounts of Truong Phuc Loan aside from his extreme embezzlement, it could be treated like that. The point is, without Truong Phuc Loan, the Nguyen Lords might have a much better chance to survive.

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A sculpture of Truong Phuc Loan, the man who was known in OTL to take away the majority of taxes in Dang Trong for his own wealth hoarding
 
I don’t know much about Nguyễn Phúc Luân to know how competent he is. Also, what will happen to Dàng Ngoài? I get the feeling that they will slowly stagnate and drift further into China (Which is not great for a unification method, if there is one Ittl)
 
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I don’t know much about Nguyễn Phúc Luân to know how competent he is. Also, what will happen to Dàng Ngoài? I get the feeling that they will slowly stagnate and drift further into China (Which is not great for a unification method, if there is one Ittl)
AFAIK and discuss with my friends, Nguyen Phuc Luan is as competent as his father, but more open to suggestions.
On the issues of Dang Ngoai, they are still under Trinh Sam, so they will stagnate eventually. Plus, they are a whole lot more conservative than the Nguyen Lords.
 
You know I love seeing you write this ATL for Vietnam/Dai Viet, I just hope that this time that the communists don't take over my country.
 
Abroad, my parents escaped the occupation, I have tried to connect with my culture over the years with my dad's stories and such, but the history I'm just getting into now. SO where are you living at then? Abroad or in Vietnam?
 
To answer: well, I live abroad. And as well, I won’t make communism in TTL. A - too cliche and B - I take the butterfly effects seriously 😉. Also don’t drag too much current politics in this thread, since this is not a political chat. I don’t want to get kicked or thread closed by the Mods 😒
 
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One might argue that the monarchy can't become too strong if Vietnam is to successfully ride the wave of the industrial revolution when it comes. If power is too entrenched, it tends to resist adopting new technologies from overseas or allowing them to develop natively, as change can weaken their pillars of support and threaten their rule. It also goes without saying that if power is concentrated too much, then there's no shortage of powerless claimants ready to offer themselves to a European power as a potential puppet king. England and Japan industrialised because power there was not only stable, but distributed into a (relatively) wide and diverse coalition of groups that couldn't rule the nation by themselves and so had to share power with each other.
 
So how are Vietnam going to westernise as Tay Son rebellion is butterfly away? The conditions for a Meiji-esque modernization didn't exist in Vietnam back then: Dang Trong and Dang Ngoai accepted the status-quo as 300 years old civil war became a stalemate. Both sides seemed content the Le king being the puppet for Trinh/Nguyen lords if the country was unified.
In Japan, Rangaku allow the creation of the beginnings of a Japanese theoretical and technological scientific base, which in Vietnam there weren't any similar movements in OTL. In @Solomi timeline, Vietnam modernized through the creation of chinaware-based industrialization, as the creation of an international merchant class allow Western technology to spread by civilian enterprises.
 
One might argue that the monarchy can't become too strong if Vietnam is to successfully ride the wave of the industrial revolution when it comes. If power is too entrenched, it tends to resist adopting new technologies from overseas or allowing them to develop natively, as change can weaken their pillars of support and threaten their rule. It also goes without saying that if power is concentrated too much, then there's no shortage of powerless claimants ready to offer themselves to a European power as a potential puppet king. England and Japan industrialised because power there was not only stable, but distributed into a (relatively) wide and diverse coalition of groups that couldn't rule the nation by themselves and so had to share power with each other.
Indeed, and I still have to scratch my head to see how can I weaken the monarchs of Dai Viet or to at least challenge the thinking of Confucianism, possibly via wars or something else. Additionally, the nation needs to develop proto-capitalism or early forms of market economy to increase the drive towards industrialization, which could theoretically be conducted with the active merchant class Dang Trong enjoys. It should be noted that Dang Trong is somewhat less centralized as well.
 
So how are Vietnam going to westernise as Tay Son rebellion is butterfly away? The conditions for a Meiji-esque modernization didn't exist in Vietnam back then: Dang Trong and Dang Ngoai accepted the status-quo as 300 years old civil war became a stalemate. Both sides seemed content the Le king being the puppet for Trinh/Nguyen lords if the country was unified.
In Japan, Rangaku allow the creation of the beginnings of a Japanese theoretical and technological scientific base, which in Vietnam there weren't any similar movements in OTL. In @Solomi timeline, Vietnam modernized through the creation of chinaware-based industrialization, as the creation of an international merchant class allow Western technology to spread by civilian enterprises.
It would be the second option and I currently researching ways to pump up a proto-capitalism environment in Dai Viet, combined with adaptation for Western technologies. Quite difficult, but with some lucks, it is possible.
 
There are actually many attempts at modernizing Vietnam. Even Minh Mang, our most conservative but competent emperor knew the values of western technology, and try to manufacture them in Vietnam. The problem is that there were no organised movements. The French must never enter Vietnam though, Nguyen Anh basically made a deal with the devil to fight the Tay Son.
 
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