Actually it is easy to make history go such way, because normalcy is... well normal. Taiwan is a logical conclusion of freak accident. First of all, after the war Allies could make Taiwan stay with Japan or become independent state. They instead choose to make it a part of China, even though Chinese treated locals as bad as Japanese. Had the Japan threw a towel earlier, they would more likely be less punished and keep the Taiwan.
Secondly had the Cold War become a degree more tepid, there would be no need to install a highly militaristic state on the isle, propped by USA. Perhaps avoid Vietnam War, or keep reds away from Philippines (but perhaps not by installing fascist dictatorship?). RoC would have to develop their industry, tourism, and so on. They may not be successful but they would have to develop with accordance to real economy. RoC army consumes 25% of their GDP. Thats Nazi Germany levels during the war. Unless they are (and were) fed by aid they would most likely starve their own population, just to keep their military afloat.
Lastly had they weren't allowed to build up nuclear reactors, or otherwise had the financing from US were cut of before they gained WMD's the regime would have no other way than to modernise or become a backwater for ages. Now they are too advanced to ignore, and too poor to actually achieve something on their own.
OOC (The Red Philippines are butterfly effect, but fairly logical)