Could Poland be to russia what Ireland is to UK?

I remember reading many years ago a timeline where the white wons the russian civil war, with one of the PoDs being Trotsky being captured and Kornilov not dying on his march to Moscow, the details are not so relevant, however. On this scenario after gaining full control over Russia the whites recrowned Nicholas II under a military junta under the white generals under control and being a de jure constitutional monarchy, and then as the soviets they marched into the baltics, Ukraine, Belarus, caucasus, etc.

A point of the timeline however is that they as the soviets did fails to recover the baltics, but in Poland they have way more success advancing all the way to the OTL frontline to warsaw, as the spoiler below shows, and the Polish government sued for peace creating some kind of "Polish free state" with Nicholas II being their de jure leader but being mostly independent de facto, while eastern Poland was directly integrated on Russia.

Could this be feasible, or the timeline is ASB? Could some version of "the troubles" rise on Russian held polish areas, while russified poles position themselves pro union with russia while the rest of the population considers themselves aligned with a polish unification? Could Poland declare independence as Ireland did OTL without Russia directly intervening on it, maybe due a constitutional or economic crisis?