Could Imperial Brazil have become a superpower? What would be the geopolitical implications of it?

[Bookmark1995]

Recently, a monarchist movement in Brazil has gained a lot of steam, thinking that Brazil's problems could solved by the restoration of the old Imperial government.

I don't really know if that work or not, and this movement is more out of frustration with modern day Brazil than with any real virtue of the old Brazilian Empire.

But when you read about the kind of man Dom Pedro II was, it's not hard to see why Brazilians would be nostalgic.

Even by modern day standards, Pedro was an excellent, diligent, forward thinking, and humble guy, and under him, Brazil avoided the political and economic problems that plagued the rest of Latin America.

But, alas, years and years of being trapped by his duty to the nation left him an exhausted, tired old man resentful of the sacrifices he had to made. And due to his own sexism, he didn't think his only survivng heir was capable of governing Brazil, and so he refused to fight to get his throne back, despite the vast of majority of Brazilians being willing to die for him.

But let's say one of Pedro's sons manages to live into adulthood, and Pedro decides to preserve his throne for another successor.

Could Brazil under its imperial system have continued its economic development, welcomed millions of immigrants from Europe, and achieved some kind of superpower status once the world wars rolled around?

 

[Neal Caffrey]

I think that it would have but you are under playing a lot of the problems Brazil has, for example slavery was the biggest issue and one that wouldn't change because of Dom Pedro due to it being a society wide problem that wouldn't change and would need a change from the start of teh Republic as slavery was quite popular, there were also other problems like how corruption was common and how industrialization was not that popular, also I don't think they could have attracted millions of inmmigrants unless it did some radical land reform and started industrializing, because I doubt anyone would migrate to a nation that has very little to offer them.

Also the imperial system like it was would have probably not survive as people would at some point want more rights, it would eventually evolve to something more akin to a constitutional monarchy.

 

[Bookmark1995]

I think that it would have but you are under playing a lot of the problems Brazil has, for example slavery was the biggest issue and one that wouldn't change because of Dom Pedro due to it being a society wide problem that wouldn't change and would need a change from the start of teh Republic as slavery was quite popular, there were also other problems like how corruption was common and how industrialization was not that popular, also I don't think they could have attracted millions of inmmigrants unless it did some radical land reform and started industrializing, because I doubt anyone would migrate to a nation that has very little to offer them.

Yeah, I remember reading that Brazil was even more slavery dependent than the antebellum South.

And that Dom Pedro was possibly the only public figure at the time who was seriously devoted to abolitionism.

But having so many slaves a major reason for Brazil's slower industrialization, and that this legacy would still have continued under a surviving Brazilian monarchy?

Also the imperial system like it was would have probably not survive as people would at some point want more rights, it would eventually evolve to something more akin to a constitutional monarchy.

Obviously, but could Dom Pedro's prospective successor have managed to create a smooth transition to constitutional monarchy, or would the coffee and dairy people have tried to push a Republic because they saw the enfranchisement of everyone as a threat to their privelege?

 

[Joshua Ben Ari]

If you have one of his sons survive, you change D. Pedro II. A big part of the issues in the Imperial period was that he felt that the monarchy would die with him (coupled with D. Pedro II not thinking a woman would be a good heir and so he actively excluded Isabel from actual governing or training), and that he was just simply tired. So that when the November 1889 coup came, he just didn't do anything to stop it. With a surviving son, you have a much different imperial Brazil.

Obviously, but could Dom Pedro's prospective successor have managed to create a smooth transition to constitutional monarchy, or would the coffee and dairy people have tried to push a Republic because they saw the enfranchisement of everyone as a threat to their privelege?

I remember reading somewhere that D. Pedro II was incredibly popular with the people, most of the landowners (they didn't like him but didn't oppose him), and most of the army. It was only the (largely Positivist) officer corps that really didn't like him.

 

[Bookmark1995]

If you have one of his sons survive, you change D. Pedro II. A big part of the issues in the Imperial period was that he felt that the monarchy would die with him (coupled with D. Pedro II not thinking a woman would be a good heir and so he actively excluded Isabel from actual governing or training), and that he was just simply tired. So that when the November 1889 coup came, he just didn't do anything to stop it. With a surviving son, you have a much different imperial Brazil.


I remember reading somewhere that D. Pedro II was incredibly popular with the people, most of the landowners (they didn't like him but didn't oppose him), and most of the army. It was only the (largely Positivist) officer corps that really didn't like him.

So if Pedro has a surviving male heir, could the coup have been avoided entirely?

It was Pedro's increasingly obvious weakness and lack of heir that made the coup more liable, so having someone who could fill Pedro's shoes would preclude it entirely, even with the abolition of slavery?

 

[Vinization]

A superpower? No. A great power? Definitely.

As for the implications, well, it would be a great power based on the southern instead of the northern hemisphere. I doubt Brazil would intervene a lot in European affairs, but it would probably want to acquire a dominant position in the South Atlantic - meaning its navy, which was already pretty strong, would become even more powerful.

 

[Bookmark1995]

A superpower? No. A great power? Definitely.

As for the implications, well, it would be a great power based on the southern instead of the northern hemisphere. I doubt Brazil would intervene a lot in European affairs, but it would probably want to acquire a dominant position in the South Atlantic - meaning its navy, which was already pretty strong, would become even more powerful.

But could it, say, form a power bloc opposing the US among the Latin American nations?

 

[Joshua Ben Ari]

So if Pedro has a surviving male heir, could the coup have been avoided entirely?

I'd say it's very likely that it would be avoided. The reason D. Pedro II didn't really fight the coup in 1889 was because he was just tired of everything*. Having an heir alleviates a lot of the issues. Not all of the issues, mind, but a lot of them. He would feel that the monarchy would be secure, for the most part, and that his son could carry on. There's still the Paraguayan War which has a big economic effect on Brazil and then the rise of Positivism among the officer corps.

*in addition, his first overseas travel in the 1870s inspired him to want to travel more; he knew that his daughter was unpopular with the elite in Brazil; and his own health issues.

It was Pedro's increasingly obvious weakness and lack of heir that made the coup more liable, so having someone who could fill Pedro's shoes would preclude it entirely, even with the abolition of slavery?

I think so. I do think that slavery is still going to be abolished, but the coup attempt is likely butterflied away.

But could it, say, form a power bloc opposing the US among the Latin American nations?

It's possible. I could see Brazil being a regional powerhouse in South America, maybe with the rest of Latin America. Competition with the US for influence in Latin America is certainly possible.

 

[Vinization]

It's possible. I could see Brazil being a regional powerhouse in South America, maybe with the rest of Latin America. Competition with the US for influence in Latin America is certainly possible.

Agreed. Relations with Argentina would have to improve, however.

 

[Bookmark1995]

I'd say it's very likely that it would be avoided. The reason D. Pedro II didn't really fight the coup in 1889 was because he was just tired of everything*. Having an heir alleviates a lot of the issues. Not all of the issues, mind, but a lot of them. He would feel that the monarchy would be secure, for the most part, and that his son could carry on. There's still the Paraguayan War which has a big economic effect on Brazil and then the rise of Positivism among the officer corps.

*in addition, his first overseas travel in the 1870s inspired him to want to travel more; he knew that his daughter was unpopular with the elite in Brazil; and his own health issues.

But what are the ramifications of Pedro Afonso living into adulthood and getting groomed for the role, say, around his 20s?

Does Pedro get to kick back, relax, and slowly push his son into his duties before abdicating to a long and wonderful retirement? Does he remain wedded to the traditions of his throne, and works harder at building a stronger monarchy?

I think his overseas vacation was the first real time off he ever had. For someone whose entire life was duty, actually relaxing was a hell of a forbidden fruit.

It's possible. I could see Brazil being a regional powerhouse in South America, maybe with the rest of Latin America. Competition with the US for influence in Latin America is certainly possible.

Agreed. Relations with Argentina would have to improve, however.

Could we see Brazil, if he continued its economic and social growth past the 1890s, actually put effort into fighting in both World Wars and becoming a military power? How does the war play out in this scenario?

And would the Brazil alliance be pro-American or neutral in the Cold War?

 

[Vinization]

Could we see Brazil, if he continued its economic and social growth past the 1890s, actually put effort into fighting in both World Wars and becoming a military power? How does the war play out in this scenario?

I guess it's possible, but I doubt the wars will be affected much.

And would the Brazil alliance be pro-American or neutral in the Cold War?

Probably pro-NATO, maybe a little like France.

 

[Bookmark1995]

Probably pro-NATO, maybe a little like France.

Could you see a Brazilian De Gaulle break with America over its heavyhandedness in Latin America?

 

[Vinization]

Could you see a Brazilian De Gaulle break with America over its heavyhandedness in Latin America?

I'm not sure things would get that bad, a strong Brazil would generate lots of butterflies throughout the continent.

 

[Bookmark1995]

I'm not sure things would get that bad, a strong Brazil would generate lots of butterflies throughout the continent.

But how would big daddy USA feel about not spreading his "freedom" over Latin America?

 

[Vinization]

But how would big daddy USA feel about not spreading his "freedom" over Latin America?

It would intensify it in Central America, while the south is a three way struggle for influence between Washington, London and Rio de Janeiro.

 

[Diego]

This map shows the real biggest issue of Brazil, the colors show the different biomes, the red line I made and it shows more or less the mountain range that makes transportation 100 times harder. It is the main reason why it is at least 3 times more costly to transport a container in Brazil than the average in the rest of the world.

That big area of Cerrado will be productive only after the 1970s, with the advanced technology, before that you can write it off.
The other big area is the Amazon, also not very productive, only good for extraction of wood, rubber and some "spices".
The smaller areas:
Caatinga, too dry.
Mata Atlantica, tropical forest, has good soil, but has forest over most of it, after 1900 and before 1950 with trucks and tractors it was almost totally removed.
Pampa, very productive.

Brazil developed when it was able to solve at least partially its geographic problems. In the 1930s and 1940s the biggest reason why Brazil started its industrialization wasn't Vargas, it was technology helping Brazil to explore its mineral wealth and use the lands under the Atlantic Forest in São Paulo, Paraná and Santa Catarina to agriculture. The same in the 1960s and 1970s, when the economic miracle happened, it happened when Brazillian population exploded, and it exploded because of the medicine of the 1940s and 1950s. Then Brazil became an exporter of food in the late 20th century, because we finally could use the land in the Cerrado, and Brazil still have a problem of transportations that limits its production and makes what is already produced a lot more costly.

You can end slavery in the 17th century, you can put any political or economic system, or take away every Brazilian and substitute each one by a person with the same mindset of the Americans, if they don't solve the Geographic problem of Brazil they will trail the same or even a worse path than OTL.

 

[Bookmark1995]

View attachment 665422

This map shows the real biggest issue of Brazil, the colors show the different biomes, the red line I made and it shows more or less the mountain range that makes transportation 100 times harder. It is the main reason why it is at least 3 times more costly to transport a container in Brazil than the average in the rest of the world.

That big area of Cerrado will be productive only after the 1970s, with the advanced technology, before that you can write it off.
The other big area is the Amazon, also not very productive, only good for extraction of wood, rubber and some "spices".
The smaller areas:
Caatinga, too dry.
Mata Atlantica, tropical forest, has good soil, but has forest over most of it, after 1900 and before 1950 with trucks and tractors it was almost totally removed.
Pampa, very productive.

Brazil developed when it was able to solve at least partially its geographic problems. In the 1930s and 1940s the biggest reason why Brazil started its industrialization wasn't Vargas, it was technology helping Brazil to explore its mineral wealth and use the lands under the Atlantic Forest in São Paulo, Paraná and Santa Catarina to agriculture. The same in the 1960s and 1970s, when the economic miracle happened, it happened when Brazillian population exploded, and it exploded because of the medicine of the 1940s and 1950s. Then Brazil became an exporter of food in the late 20th century, because we finally could use the land in the Cerrado, and Brazil still have a problem of transportations that limits its production and makes what is already produced a lot more costly.

You can end slavery in the 17th century, you can put any political or economic system, or take away every Brazilian and substitute each one by a person with the same mindset of the Americans, if they don't solve the Geographic problem of Brazil they will trail the same or even a worse path than OTL.

Uh....

I know, as the saying goes, that geography determines destiny.

But history proves it is possible for many nations to defy destiny and be prosperous.

Switzerland is mountains, Botswana and Israel are desert, and Singapore is a sweaty swamp.

Yet these nations have managed to prosper because they had excellent, efficient, and responsible governments.

A Brazil that is democratic, non-corrupt, and where business can be done without being damaged by a kleptocratic ruler or a corrupt bureaucracy could easily solve these challenges.

 

[Cymry-Korean]

Uh....

I know, as the saying goes, that geography determines destiny.

But history proves it is possible for many nations to defy destiny and be prosperous.

Switzerland is mountains, Botswana and Israel are desert, and Singapore is a sweaty swamp.

Yet these nations have managed to prosper because they had excellent, efficient, and responsible governments.

A Brazil that is democratic, non-corrupt, and where business can be done without being damaged by a kleptocratic ruler or a corrupt bureaucracy could easily solve these challenges.

The issue with the examples you chose is scale. What's possible or likely in Singapore or Israel can't be carried over to a large continental state like Brazil. Could Brazil have done better post independence? Surely. Would this be done easily? No.

 

[Bookmark1995]

The issue with the examples you chose is scale. What's possible or likely in Singapore or Israel can't be carried over to a large continental state like Brazil. Could Brazil have done better post independence? Surely. Would this be done easily? No.

But things would be easier with a non-corrupt government in charge.

 

[Joshua Ben Ari]

But what are the ramifications of Pedro Afonso living into adulthood and getting groomed for the role, say, around his 20s?

Does Pedro get to kick back, relax, and slowly push his son into his duties before abdicating to a long and wonderful retirement? Does he remain wedded to the traditions of his throne, and works harder at building a stronger monarchy?

I think it's certainly possible that if Pedro Afonso lives to his adulthood, D. Pedro II could abdicate in favor of his son. Pedro II didn't have the easiest life. His mother died when he was one, his father and step-mother abandoned him when he was five out of a desire to restore Maria II (Pedro I's daughter) to the Portuguese throne. He had an incredibly lonely childhood in Brazil with like two hours a day for play, and being Emperor of Brazil from the age of 5. I think being able to relax and actually be a father, a better one than his own, will allow D. Pedro II to pass off more and more obligations to Pedro Afonso when he knows can handle the responsibilities.

I think his overseas vacation was the first real time off he ever had. For someone whose entire life was duty, actually relaxing was a hell of a forbidden fruit.

I absolutely agree. He'd have absolutely earned a good retirement.

Could we see Brazil, if he continued its economic and social growth past the 1890s, actually put effort into fighting in both World Wars and becoming a military power? How does the war play out in this scenario?

And would the Brazil alliance be pro-American or neutral in the Cold War?

It was already mentioned before, but I think that Brazil could improve economically if it manages to handle the geographic limitations. If there's a push for industrialization and actually creating an interconnected network for the empire, I think it's possible. It won't be easy but I do think it's possible. As for Brazil in the World Wars, I'd say they'd probably lean Entente/Allies if not outright declare for them. I don't think the wars will be much impacted by Brazilian involvement.

If the Cold War still happens? Probably leaning towards NATO.