Could Imperial Brazil have become a superpower? What would be the geopolitical implications of it?

[jessicajsscjs]

Maybe you could have a Brazil with Uruguay, Paraguay, Entre Rios, Mesopotamia and a northern border at the Orinoco River. Not a superpower, but much stronger than OTL.

I believe you are wrong to think the best divergence would be during the reign of Pedro II, no, the best divergence would a Brazil that absolutely crushes Argentina and Uruguay in the Cisplatine War, during the reign of Pedro I, and takes Argentinian provinces before Britain can even spell "international mediation".

If Pedro I could manage that, besides staying in Brazil and letting Portugal to his brother, he would've much more political capital for an earlier abolition of slavery. No one is more capable of making reforms pass than a leader who is victorious in battle.

 

[Sicarius]

But could it, say, form a power bloc opposing the US among the Latin American nations?

Could you see a Brazilian De Gaulle break with America over its heavyhandedness in Latin America?

I feel like super-Brazil would be a bigger concern than the USA for TTL South America.

 

[jessicajsscjs]

I feel like super-Brazil would be a bigger concern than the USA for TTL South America.

They might be THE ONES to create the term "Latin" America ITTL (the French did it OTL), or maybe something more closer like Ibero America, but I feel they would probably stick with "Latin" due to the prestige thing.

 

[Bookmark1995]

I think it's certainly possible that if Pedro Afonso lives to his adulthood, D. Pedro II could abdicate in favor of his son. Pedro II didn't have the easiest life. His mother died when he was one, his father and step-mother abandoned him when he was five out of a desire to restore Maria II (Pedro I's daughter) to the Portuguese throne. He had an incredibly lonely childhood in Brazil with like two hours a day for play, and being Emperor of Brazil from the age of 5. I think being able to relax and actually be a father, a better one than his own, will allow D. Pedro II to pass off more and more obligations to Pedro Afonso when he knows can handle the responsibilities.

And let's not forget Pedro went through the usual fairy tale of the young monarch forced to marry a stranger against his will. Hilariously, someone pointed out that this would make young Dom Pedro a "Disney Princess sitting in his gilded cage forced to marry a some random person." When he met Teresa Cristina, he could not hide his disappointment over how not-very-pretty she was, like a person who tried Internet dating and got punk'd. I mean, he didn't hate Teresa, but he saw his marriage to her as just another sign of how little control he had over his own life.

Being able to raise his son and mold him into a ruler would've definite helped Pedro emotionally.

I absolutely agree. He'd have absolutely earned a good retirement.

He should've been sipping martinis along the French Rivera, not chilling in some shabby Parisian apartment.

It was already mentioned before, but I think that Brazil could improve economically if it manages to handle the geographic limitations. If there's a push for industrialization and actually creating an interconnected network for the empire, I think it's possible. It won't be easy but I do think it's possible. As for Brazil in the World Wars, I'd say they'd probably lean Entente/Allies if not outright declare for them. I don't think the wars will be much impacted by Brazilian involvement.

If the Cold War still happens? Probably leaning towards NATO.

So you probably wouldn't see a million Brazilian soldiers invading Germany in the final year of the war?

 

[Bookmark1995]

Maybe you could have a Brazil with Uruguay, Paraguay, Entre Rios, Mesopotamia and a northern border at the Orinoco River. Not a superpower, but much stronger than OTL.

I believe you are wrong to think the best divergence would be during the reign of Pedro II, no, the best divergence would a Brazil that absolutely crushes Argentina and Uruguay in the Cisplatine War, during the reign of Pedro I, and takes Argentinian provinces before Britain can even spell "international mediation".

If Pedro I could manage that, besides staying in Brazil and letting Portugal to his brother, he would've much more political capital for an earlier abolition of slavery. No one is more capable of making reforms pass than a leader who is victorious in battle.

Uh...

Pedro II did win the war of the Triple Alliance and got a lot of presitge, and despite his best efforts, he had to gradually emancipate slaves rather than free them outright.

I feel like super-Brazil would be a bigger concern than the USA for TTL South America.

So would you see a Brazilian CIA toppling governments it doesn't like ?

 

[Diego]

Switzerland is mountains,

Switzerland is a valley between two mountain ranges, they happen to control mountains north and south, but the people live in the lower parts. They didn't solve their geographical problem because they didn't have one to begin with. They have in fact a very advantageous geography, when you take into account soil, position, transportation...

Botswana and Israel are desert

Botswana "is a desert", but their economy is built around the mining industry, what does a desert has to do with it?
Israel is not a desert, it has deserts, but a good portion of the country has been farmed since the Neolithic, also Israel is probably one of the countries that received more foreign capital in the history of mankind.

Singapore is a sweaty swamp

Swamps are easily drained, I want to see how you remove mountains.

Yet these nations have managed to prosper because they had excellent, efficient, and responsible governments.

Not exactly, and I showed why. But I think you misunderstood me, I am not saying that the government and institutions of Brazil are not problematic, what I am saying is that the main problem of Brazil is its geography. In fact as I said in my first answer, Brazil solved partially or in its entirety some of its problems (Cerrado, Mata Atlantica, and Tropical Diseases) when technology was available.

But things would be easier with a non-corrupt government in charge.

Yes, but they need to be solved, with good or bad institutions it needs to be solved.

 

[Diego]

Maybe you could have a Brazil with Uruguay, Paraguay, Entre Rios, Mesopotamia and a northern border at the Orinoco River. Not a superpower, but much stronger than OTL.

I believe you are wrong to think the best divergence would be during the reign of Pedro II, no, the best divergence would a Brazil that absolutely crushes Argentina and Uruguay in the Cisplatine War, during the reign of Pedro I, and takes Argentinian provinces before Britain can even spell "international mediation".

If Pedro I could manage that, besides staying in Brazil and letting Portugal to his brother, he would've much more political capital for an earlier abolition of slavery. No one is more capable of making reforms pass than a leader who is victorious in battle.

Exactly, that solves most of the geographical problems of Brazil. I would say that if Brazil receives the oild fields of the Orinoco Basin it would be almost impossible to not be a superpower around 1970.

 

[Bookmark1995]

-snip-

Yes, but they need to be solved, with good or bad institutions it needs to be solved.

Exactly, that solves most of the geographical problems of Brazil. I would say that if Brazil receives the oild fields of the Orinoco Basin it would be almost impossible to not be a superpower around 1970.

So regardless of having the monarchy around or not, Brazil's geographic limitations would prevent from fully exploiting its potential until late in the 20th century?

It could be a prosperous first world nation, but not a superpower rivaling America until around 1960s-1970s?

 

[Joshua Ben Ari]

So you probably wouldn't see a million Brazilian soldiers invading Germany in the final year of the war?

Probably not. That's not to say there wouldn't be a Brazilian expeditionary force, but a million Brazilian soldiers? Quite unlikely.

 

[Diego]

So regardless of having the monarchy around or not, Brazil's geographic limitations would prevent from fully exploiting its potential until late in the 20th century?

It could be a prosperous first world nation, but not a superpower rivaling America until around 1960s-1970s?

Well, yes, but I think that maintaining the monarchy would be better, without the coups and revolts of the late 19th and early 20th century, and a good electoral reform it would be better prepared to make use of the opportunities in the 20 century.

The only way to make Brazil a superpower would be annexing more land in the Platine Region.

 

[jessicajsscjs]

Uh...

Pedro II did win the war of the Triple Alliance and got a lot of presitge, and despite his best efforts, he had to gradually emancipate slaves rather than free them outright.

The situation was a lot different.

Pedro I was forming the state, Pedro II effectively (when he came of age) became Emperor of an ALREADY formed entity completely controled by the scum of the Earth (slaveowners).

 

[Aluma]

I was present when the online brazilian monarchist movement started...
Of course it has changed a lot since then and I'll avoid making a rant of how much I hate it now to not enter in modern politics, rather I'll talk about how it was when my old buddies were still the first few of them in order to help you with your question:

The main thing they had going was not that monarchism = empire's back, problems solved
It was that the brazilian monarchy had a reserve power known as "poder moderador", Moderator Power in english, that allowed the would-be-figurehead monarch to fire the parliament, senate or the deputy chamber in cases of severe mismanagement or corruption that would allow whoever who sits on the throne to (temporarily)stop the governamental corruption that plagues modern Brazil and prevents it from reaching it's true potential
Of course there's problems with this narrative:

-First a monarch is not necessarily needed to bring back the "Moderator Power", which is one of the main reasons why I'm not a monarchist, but the main argument of the monarchists(that I agree with) is that any elected president in a parliamentary republic who had this reserve power would use it to benefit their party or refrain from using it to not damage said party. And yeah a monarch is not necessarily neutral or looking for the nation's best interest, but not being part of a party is a positive thing on itself
-Second is that the Emperor's power in Imperial Brazil was waaay less restricted than monarchists believe it to be, they want a figurehead with no executive power like Queen Liz with this reserve power as a emergential prerrogative. Problem is? Pedro II could use the Moderator Power whenever he wanted, sure he didnt abuse it but he hell sure could and besides that he could also point ministers left & right, sign or veto laws and all that kind of stuff

In short, if you want the "brazilian monarchist dream" to be real(with some realism of course, we certainly arent going to beat the British Empire here) you dont necessarily need Pedro II to stay in power, the old monarchy to survive or for us to be a superpower

What you need is:
A) Butterfly away the military dictatorships in order for Brazil to have a ininterrupt democratic tradition, since that was what made the early republics so traumatic
B) A system with a figurehead that doesnt belong to any political party
C) Said figurehead to be able to call for new elections and fire the government under emergencies(such as Mensalão, the Lava Jato operation and the Covid pandemic) but not arbitrarily

In short, make brazilian politics as good as Norway's and Brazil a developed first world country

Could be done? I dunno, maybe its ASB, I think it's possible tho
Either way I hope that helps with your scenario
If I broke any rules here in regard to not bringing up politics I apologise in advance to the admins

 

[Aluma]

The best divergence would a Brazil that absolutely crushes Argentina and Uruguay in the Cisplatine War, during the reign of Pedro I
If Pedro I could manage that, besides staying in Brazil, he would've much more political capital for an earlier abolition of slavery. No one is more capable of making reforms pass than a leader who is victorious in battle.

I believe this is the best POD as well
You get rid of slavery early and if you want a reform where the brazilian monarch can fire politicians but has no executive power this is the best opportunity, plus the gain in land making Brazil much more powerful
Good luck trying to convince Pedro I to do that though

 

[jessicajsscjs]

Good luck trying to convince Pedro I to do that though

Give up Portugal?

 

[Aluma]

And limiting his powers, yeah
Also not ruin his popularity with affairs and following your military strategy instead of whatever he had in mind, he was very difficult to deal with
The only thing I see him listening to is about the need to end slavery before it's too late

 

[jessicajsscjs]

And limiting his powers, yeah
Also not ruin his popularity with affairs and following your military strategy instead of whatever he had in mind, he was very difficult to deal with
The only thing I see him listening to is about the need to end slavery before it's too late

I don't think limiting his powers is more important than winning the war decisively and abolishing slavery early, if your objective is to turn Brazil into a superpower.

 

[Aluma]

Agreed, to be a superpower like OP asked your suggestion is the best bet I think
I'm just saying if OP wants a Brazil any similar to what people asking for a imperial restoration want, in which case limiting the monarch's power is a must

 

[Bookmark1995]

I was present when the online brazilian monarchist movement started...
Of course it has changed a lot since then and I'll avoid making a rant of how much I hate it now to not enter in modern politics, rather I'll talk about how it was when my old buddies were still the first few of them in order to help you with your question:

It is full of ideological jerks who don't know anything?

-First a monarch is not necessarily needed to bring back the "Moderator Power", which is one of the main reasons why I'm not a monarchist, but the main argument of the monarchists(that I agree with) is that any elected president in a parliamentary republic who had this reserve power would use it to benefit their party or refrain from using it to not damage said party. And yeah a monarch is not necessarily neutral or looking for the nation's best interest, but not being part of a party is a positive thing on itself
-Second is that the Emperor's power in Imperial Brazil was waaay less restricted than monarchists believe it to be, they want a figurehead with no executive power like Queen Liz with this reserve power as a emergential prerrogative. Problem is? Pedro II could use the Moderator Power whenever he wanted, sure he didnt abuse it but he hell sure could and besides that he could also point ministers left & right, sign or veto laws and all that kind of stuff

In other words, Brazil's old system only worked when the man wearing the crown was a good guy.

Even if Pedro could raise Afonso into being a man worthy of rule, he could've easily abused his powers and been very partial to whatever faction was in power, potentially running Imperial Brazil into the ground and leading to be overthrown anyways?

What you need is:
A) Butterfly away the military dictatorships in order for Brazil to have a ininterrupt democratic tradition, since that was what made the early republics so traumatic
B) A system with a figurehead that doesnt belong to any political party
C) Said figurehead to be able to call for new elections and fire the government under emergencies(such as Mensalão, the Lava Jato operation and the Covid pandemic) but not arbitrarily

In short, make brazilian politics as good as Norway's and Brazil a developed first world country

Could be done? I dunno, maybe its ASB, I think it's possible tho
Either way I hope that helps with your scenario
If I broke any rules here in regard to not bringing up politics I apologise in advance to the admins

Are there any scenarios where Brazil could've been like Costa Rica, and had a long tradition of democracy?

Agreed, to be a superpower like OP asked your suggestion is the best bet I think
I'm just saying if OP wants a Brazil any similar to what people asking for a imperial restoration want, in which case limiting the monarch's power is a must

Considering Pedro wasn't a guy who liked to rule, I can definitely picture him doing that on his own if he can the monarchy outliving him.

He was a very enlightened man who wanted to take it easy. I can picture him preparing his son to be a more figurehead constitutional monarch.

 

[Bookmark1995]

And limiting his powers, yeah
Also not ruin his popularity with affairs and following your military strategy instead of whatever he had in mind, he was very difficult to deal with
The only thing I see him listening to is about the need to end slavery before it's too late

So Brazil could've ended slavery in the 1830s? I thought Brazil was so entwined with slavery, even freed slaves would buy slaves if they could?

 

[Vinization]

@Gukpard