Could France fight on from North Africa?

fasquardon

1 million French men (mostly) evacuating to Algeria for the war is going to have big impacts on the French evacuees, French settlers and Algerian Arabs and Jews.

I could imagine a statistically significant number of Algerian Arab-Evacuee marriages, for example.

It would be fun to see how post-war culture and politics evolved as a result.

fasquardon
 

Glenn239

Logan2879 said:
I have a question I estimate between 300,000 - 450,000 french troops could have evacuated from France through the Med, is this possible?
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You mean to dump 450,000 men in North Africa without equipment or supplies? Sure. Move armored and mechanized divisions to North Africa as fighting formations with stockpiles, in 30 or 60 days? Probably not - the time nor the shipping was available for that. Also, don't forget that the Luftwaffe would bomb Marsailles and other ports Italy once it was clear what was afoot.
 

Deleted member 2186

I always wonder, are only soldiers evacuated to North Africa ore also civilians.
 

Archibald

Banned
fasquardon said:
1 million French men (mostly) evacuating to Algeria for the war is going to have big impacts on the French evacuees, French settlers and Algerian Arabs and Jews.

I could imagine a statistically significant number of Algerian Arab-Evacuee marriages, for example.

It would be fun to see how post-war culture and politics evolved as a result.

fasquardon
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The immediate casualty is the OTL algerian war. Considering algeria host whatever is left of France, France reward them with far, far much human rights than OTL.

OTL V-J day saw a widescale rebelion in Algeria that was crushed in blood by the French Army , leading to the war 9 years later. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sétif_and_Guelma_massacre (even today it is unknown how many Algerian, colonists and soldiers died that day.)
 

NOMISYRRUC

lordroel said:
Women, children.
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How many people including women and children will try to escape to French North Africa via Spain?

That is while the fighting in mainland France continues? And afterwards?

Will Franco allow them to pass through Spain? Or will he have them turned back at the border?
 

NOMISYRRUC

Archibald said:
ninja'd by Carl S. :p

You are too pessimistic.

I can tell you this was hotly debated and wargamed altogether, and early August wasn't that optimistic (I've heard some scenarios had a small corner of Southern France holding until September).

It seems the key issue often underestimated is German forces slowing down mid June (around OTL armistice) because they were overstretched, just like the Wallies in the fall of 1944 (except North > South instead of West > East, but France is an pretty symetrical hegaxon).

That's overstretching and slowing down has been discussed a lot, some readers believe it could have happened, others not. Admittedly, it is a critical point in the FTL scenario.

The French government reorganize around Toulouse and Marseille. The Rhone valley is a bottleneck stuck between Massif Central and Alpes, giving a major advantage to defense.

Bordeaux isn't really relevant: it is used as long as possible but given up early July. Most of the Atlantic coast isn't really useful, the main effort is around Marseille and Toulon and the Mediterranean, so Germans are left overstretching on South-West France, the most of the defence being around Toulouse.

Having grown there, I can tell you the land stretching between Bordeaux and the Spanish border is mostly empty space, except if your panzer engines run on sand and pine trees. :p

For example, there is one squadron left to defend South-West airspace: a dozen of Bloch MB-152s, reinforced by whatever MB-155s they can get their hands on (Bloch = Dassault = Mérignac = near Bordeaux). I wrote their adventures ten years ago.

An example of a the possible German overstretch is Me-109s being limited by range, as usual, and it is not a matter from leaping to a new airstrip southward: they are deliberately destroyed by retreating French troops). From a brief moment late June and early July, escort has to go to the longer ranged Me-110s, with their usual caveats. Even a MS-406 can score against a 110.

Also, from early June French troops and aviation fought much harder, lessons had been learned the hard way, but too late.

(I made a mistake: I thought the fight stopped on August 15 but it actually stops on August 9).
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My gut feeling is still that holding out until the middle of July is more feasible than the Ninth of August. I hope that you are right and I am wrong though.

I gave the French until the end of June before I wrote Post 56. However, when I wrote it I changed my mind and altered the date to the middle of July after making allowance for the factors that you and @Carl Schwamberger have explained better than I could have.

I mentioned Bordeaux not because it was about to be captured and therefore the French could not have used it as an evacuation point. It was to show that the Germans had come a long way very quickly since breaking through the Weygand Line on 4th June.
 

NOMISYRRUC

Archibald said:
Nope. This is no longer Dunkirk madness. The French government takes strong steps to get an organized move (as much as possible of course). By the way, De Gaulle isn't the imediate star of the show. Bar Paul Reynaud growing a spine, the FTL authors collected an impressive number of forgotten strong personalities (such as George Mandel, but there are a bunch of others, such as Pierre Brossolette, Jules Moch, Roland de Margerie...).

Think Jeandebueil Unwanted clairvoyant TL but transposed in 1940. I'm trying hard to get Jeandebueil enlisted in the FTL, but he is too busy :p )
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Again I hope that you are right and that I am wrong, but my gut feeling is still that it would have been very hard for the French Government to organise an orderly evacuation. E.g. its very likely that the Mediterranean ports would have been swamped with refugees.
 

Oldbill

I recall reading, sometime in the dim past, an account of the Fall of France wherein (IIRC Darlan was asked how long he could hold the southern ports. His estimate was for some months. Other factors to consider is the state of the German Army, in particular its armored component. They've suffered fairly heavy losses, their machines are badly in need of maintenance and overhaul, and the Luftwaffe is no better. How are German logistics in this period? Will they not have to stop and regroup, bring up more supplies, repair their machines, replace the losses in men and only then be able to continue driving towards the south of France? This gives a bit of a breather to the French, and another chance to form a line and delay the Germans.
 

Archibald

Banned
You nailed it perfectly, Oldbill. German logistics are bad and their machines exhausted, so the last weeks of June would have bring a short pause in their onslaught.
From memory (I'll check) they had to fuel their tanks at French gasoline stations that had been abandonned in place. In the FTL the new Reynaud government makes sure no such "gift" is make to the Germans, fuel depots are emptied and destroyed.
 

Imladrik

Gudestein said:
I know the OTL situation, its just ITTL the priority for Germany is so much higher and the available bribes as well. Certainly, german priority Will ve to eliminate this threat in the South and it Will appear much more doable than Sea lion.
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Crossing five times the distance with less air superiority (10min loiter time over Tunis for the bf 109, and worse logistics) is easier ?
 

Imladrik

Gudestein said:
From Lybia, Malta and Spain against a foe with insufficient infrastructure, Yes.
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Franco is never going to go to war, never. He never liked Hitler, his army was crap, he depended upon the US goodwill to buy food abroad, and he didn't want to lose his colonies.

Malta didn't fall in OTL and won't fall in a scenario where the Allies are stronger and where the luftwaffe is weaker given a campaing of France twice almost twice as long as OTL.

Lybia is going to fall in week as Italia had less troops, less tanks, less planes, less transports and less qartillery in Tripolitania than the French had in the Tunisian southern front alone given that they had basically zero chance of resupplying Tripoli once the RN and the MN decide to interdict it and bomb the port.

Also if you consider the infrastructure in French North Africa insufficient, how about the magnificient infrastructure of Spain (it is barely better) Lybia (two noteworthy port each smaller than Bizerte, Oran, Casablanca, Algiers and Tunis, basically one road with almost no railroads), and Malta (you seriously would plan an invasion from a small island which would probably ravaged by the fighting that you would need to do to take it and that wasn't in any logistical shape to do anything anyway ?)
 

Carl Schwamberger

Archibald said:
...
From memory (I'll check) they had to fuel their tanks at French gasoline stations that had been abandonned in place. In the FTL the new Reynaud government makes sure no such "gift" is make to the Germans, fuel depots are emptied and destroyed.
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A few were refueled from road side service stations. Those did not have a lot on hand and a German reconissance company could empty the stations tank in one refueling. Most of the captured fuel seems to have been in the commercial distribution facilities in the cities like Lille or Mons. Those were overrun before the French could evacuate or destroy the contents. Same thing with horse feed. The infantry division of 1940 required several tons of fodder daily. & grazing off the road verges was not going to do it. Draft horses require a significant amount of high energy grain & minerals/viatmins to keep up over a two month campaign. Captured stocks from the farms and more important the commercial depots kept the infantry corps moving.
 
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