Could France fight on from North Africa?

[Archibald]

i'll try to check the website and see what solution they found. The conseil de guerre, held in Tours mid-June, was the place were Free France fought Vichy. And not everybody agrees with the moves to Algiers, the NEF remains in control of the metropole, albeit with far less legitimacy that OTL Vichy.

 

[gallen95]

If France fights on what happens to French Indochina and the Japanese Army occupation which led to the U.S./Dutch East Indies oil embargo and was the Casus belli for the attack on Pearl Harbor?

 

[Some Bloke]

Difficult. On the one hand, an attack on a French colony would be seen as an attack on the allies as a whole.
On the other hand, no one in the allies had the troops or shipping to spare to reinforce said colony.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Difficult. On the one hand, an attack on a French colony would be seen as an attack on the allies as a whole.
On the other hand, no one in the allies had the troops or shipping to spare to reinforce said colony.

Yup, Japan would gain FIC as easily as OTL, but the Pacific war starts months earlier & the US is sucked in sooner.

However the FIC occupation was a considered move by Japan, and with the calculation it would not result in war with France. With a still actively Allied France the Japanese gov. may postpone this move.

 

[Archibald]

Not they wouldn't gain it as easily. Vichy France was a bunch of morons without the will to fight. An Algiers government would be something entirely different. In FFO the Japanese ends bogged down in Vietnam quagmire, guess where ? at fucking Dien Bien Phu (the very same place as in 1954 OTL, except this time French and Vietnamese fights together against the Japanese - and the Epervier forward base does not fall...)

 

[Dave Howery]

one of my what if books on WW2 claims that the French could have built 15 infantry divisions in NA, but they would have had few vehicles and low artillery, and would have been armed mainly with rifles and a few machine guns. The cream of the French fleet and air force would have been there though. No idea if that's true or not...

 

[Archibald]

It is true.

 

[Musketeer513]

French forces largely equipped with American weapons. Similar base deal with America for more weapons.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

French forces largely equipped with American weapons. Similar base deal with America for more weapons.

In 1940 the US had artillery, mortars, & AT guns (37mm) for some 30 National Guard and a half dozen Regular Army divisions. Both the Artillery and mortars were French made or copies therof, so it would not take a lot of training to equip the French with a dozen divisions worth of this kit.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

...Developing a manufacturing base in the colonies is politically and practically nigh impossible, however
early purchases could be used to develop and expand resource extraction efforts. This could mean that France
could pay for materiel with its Gold Reserves for longer than Britain IOTL, or that France grants huge concessions
to American companies...

Except on the 'politically impossible' front, isn't Algeria in 1940 (or at least the part of Algeria closest to the Mediterranean) considered part of the French metropole, and not a colony?

 

[Major Major]

I suspect Lend-Lease could go through earlier and quicker. This isn't backing up the enemy that taxed tea and burned the White House; it's supporting our oldest friend, it's not letting Lafayette down, it's being there for the center of culture and beauty.

 

[James Ricker]

If they can secure American Lend Lease it's a definite yes.

 

[Some Bloke]

I suspect Lend-Lease could go through earlier and quicker. This isn't backing up the enemy that taxed tea and burned the White House; it's supporting our oldest friend, it's not letting Lafayette down, it's being there for the center of culture and beauty.

Perhaps. Or it could lead to longer Cash and Carry with a continued Anglo French purchasing commission. After all with French gold and efforts at expanding the mining industry, the allies (rather than just Britain) have more gold to spend and dollar reserves are stretching further due to an alternative source of supply for raw materials.

Another, semirelated note is the Tizard Mission, where Britain essentially sold its latest technological developments for a song. Perhaps including French scientist and businessmen could help the mission play the Legacy of Lafayette card in exchange for a better licence deal.

 

[Luminous]

Actually, there was a deal proposed for the exchange of French colonies overseas to the US in return for an extremely large (indefinite?) supply of aircraft early during the war (or perhaps before. I can't remember the exact date). It was a similar "colonies for aircraft" deal as "bases for destroyers" was, but would have proposed turning over the Pacific and Caribbean colonies as payment. France didn't really need the aircraft at the time, though, so the deal went nowhere.

So, with France considering the potential handover of colonies for just aircraft, they might be able to get a blanket supply from the US for at least some bases as concessions. If anything, the Free French government can basically use their presence as a pressure, noting that without some kind of support the French won't be able to continue fighting. So, some deal could be arranged.

And, well, if Japan has taken any more expansive moves, the US could be interested in securing the route to Australia, so New Caledonia and Polynesia would be useful, at least.

 

[Archibald]

Except on the 'politically impossible' front, isn't Algeria in 1940 (or at least the part of Algeria closest to the Mediterranean) considered part of the French metropole, and not a colony?

Absolutely. It is a departement, just like Corsica or Brittany.

 

[Archibald]

Perhaps. Or it could lead to longer Cash and Carry with a continued Anglo French purchasing commission. After all with French gold and efforts at expanding the mining industry, the allies (rather than just Britain) have more gold to spend and dollar reserves are stretching further due to an alternative source of supply for raw materials.

Another, semirelated note is the Tizard Mission, where Britain essentially sold its latest technological developments for a song. Perhaps including French scientist and businessmen could help the mission play the Legacy of Lafayette card in exchange for a better licence deal.

In FFO the Joliot Curie (Marie's daughter and her husband, Frederic Joliot) helps the Manhattan project.

 

[Archibald]

I've checked Wikipedia to see OTL Japanese / Thai / FIC events between June 1940 and Pearl Harbor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_invasion_of_French_Indochina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Indochina_in_World_War_II
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Indochina_in_World_War_II#1940

1940 is entirely different since France keep fighting from Algiers, including Indochina. The Japanese invasion of September never happens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Thai_War
And this takes a different shape, essentially a one-month-long war that ends mostly on a stalemate.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

Not they wouldn't gain it as easily. Vichy France was a bunch of morons without the will to fight. An Algiers government would be something entirely different.

The Algiers government might have the will to fight, but they won't have the means. The Indochine garrison is still small and underequipped, the Japanese would probably steamroll it pretty quickly...and there probably won't be reinforcements since the first priority of the French would be liberation of the Metropole and they need all the forces they can get.

In FFO the Japanese ends bogged down in Vietnam quagmire, guess where ? at fucking Dien Bien Phu (the very same place as in 1954 OTL, except this time French and Vietnamese fights together against the Japanese - and the Epervier forward base does not fall...)

I agree that there'd be a quagmire, but it wouldn't come until after Indochina was occupied and the Japanese had shown their true colours.

Remember OTL, when the Japanese initially invaded, many in the occupied territories thought they'd liberate those territories from colonial occupation and only learned the awful truth when it was too late. In fact: the Nakano spies had encouraged links with nationalist groups pre-war to smooth the path of any invasion.

Given this early optimism, I really don't see Vietnamese fighting together with the French in an initial invasion. Not after the sheer awfulness of colonial rule (use of effective slave labour, awful conditions on the Michelin Rubber Plantation, the plantations in general...) Now once the country is occupied and they realise the Japanese are as bad as/worse than the French, then there'll be fighting, but initially? Doubt it.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

But in this situation, Spain is more not less vulnerable. Spanish Morocco is liable to be invaded, and even more likely are Spanish Island territories. Her only potential gain is Gib., but while Gib. is put under siege, Barcelona, is shelled by Allied warships off the coast. So, joining the Axis would not be a smart move.

I agree that Spain joining the Axis would not be a smart move.

I think that the only time Franco would have gone into the war is June 1940. That is at the same time as Mussolini and for the same reasons. It has been pointed out in this thread and numerous others that Spain was in no condition to fight a war lasting more than a few months (if that) so once it was clear that the British were going to fight on there was no chance of Franco joining the Axis.

IMHO France fighting on from North Africa would strengthen Franco's resolve to keep Spain out of the war regardless of any extra aid Hitler could give by plundering metropolitan France.

Having written that one military resource that Spain seems to have had in abundance is coast artillery. I found a Spanish website that had maps of the coast artillery deployed along the northern coast and strait of Gibraltar. However, now that I want it I can't find it. Much is made of the British coast artillery at Gibraltar making the straits impassable to Axis shipping, but by the same token the coast artillery that the Spanish had on both sides of the strait (which included two 15" guns near Cadiz) would have made the straits impassable to Allied shipping.

I don't have the information to back it up, but I suspect that Barcelona and Cartagena were defended by substantial quantities of coast artillery too. Then there's the Spanish air force and whatever the Luftwaffe can spare to back them up. Therefore I doubt that Allied warships would bombard Barcelona or any other city on the cost of Spain or at least not in 1940.

Edit

This is the link to the website. The coverage on the north coast is not as thick as I thought it was and the map for the strait of Gibraltar is for 1942.
http://www.elgrancapitan.org/foro/viewtopic.php?f=45&t=17045&start=210

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The Algiers government might have the will to fight, but they won't have the means. The Indochine garrison is still small and underequipped, the Japanese would probably steamroll it pretty quickly...and there probably won't be reinforcements since the first priority of the French would be liberation of the Metropole and they need all the forces they can get.

Will the Japanese invade in the first place? The Algiers Government of this TL is an ally of Britain and the Dutch Government in Exile. Although the British forces in the area are even weaker than they were in 1941 the Royal Navy hasn't had the heavy loses suffered between July 1940 and December 1941 yet and it has the support of the French navy in the Mediterranean.

Either the Japanese don't invade at all or they go "the whole hog" and take all the British and Dutch colonies they can at the same time. The Japanese Government will know that doing that will bring America into the war 18 months earlier too so the Japanese have to take the Philippines, Guam and Wake while they are at it as well.