Could France fight on from North Africa?

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

Will the Japanese invade in the first place? The Algiers Government of this TL is an ally of Britain and the Dutch Government in Exile. Although the British forces in the area are even weaker than they were in 1941 the Royal Navy hasn't had the heavy loses suffered between July 1940 and December 1941 yet and it has the support of the French navy in the Mediterranean.

Oh, I'd agree that they probably wouldn't invade. I was more saying if they did, I doubted they'd have a difficulty. The only hope for France holding the colony would be British/ANZAC reinforcement and that'd have to come by sea since Thailand separated British and French territory. So more danger of interdiction, etc.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The Kirkland essay is useful, but I'd not cite from it. Have discussed it with a couple of experts on the French AF & there are some core factual errors they identified, which undercut his conclusions. The most important point in it concerns the high portion of the AF that was stood down for aircraft replacement in April-May 1940. Kirkland is on track in identifying that as a critical weakness in May.

I quoted that because the second paragraph gave an indication of how many Armée de l' Air squadrons might have been evacuated to North Africa.

An examination of which units were ordered to North Africa and which were left behind reveals much about the motivation behind the evacuation. The units flown to North Africa were those regular air force squadrons with the most modern and effective aircraft--all of the squadrons equipped with the Curtiss 75A (10), Dewoitine 520 (10), Amiot 354 (8), Bloch 174 (18), Farman 222 (4), Douglas DB-7 (8), and Martin 167 (10), plus most of those with the Lioré et Olivier 451 (12 of 18). Those left behind included all of the air force reserve units--47 observation squadrons and 12 fighter squadrons--and all of the units closely connected with the army (the observation squadrons, the 10 assault bomber squadrons, and 7 night fighter squadrons converted to the ground assault role).

I counted 80 squadrons.

Green and Fricker in The Air Forces of the World said that only 10 groupes de chasse had been ordered to fly to North Africa.

During June 18th-20th the D.520 fighters of GCI/3, II/3, III/3, III/6, and II/7, and the Hawk75As of GCIII/2, I/4, II/4, I/5 and II/5 had been ordered to North Africa, but the remainder of the Armée de l' Air elements based in France at the time of the capitulation awaited disbandment in accordance with the terms of the Armistice.

According to them the Vichy Air force consisted of:

In Vichy France

6 Groupes de Chasse with Bloch M.B.151s, 152s and 155s
2 Escadrilles de Chasse de Nuit, with Potez 631s
4 Groupes de Bombardement with LeO 451s
2 Groupes de Bombardement d' Assault with Potez 63.11s
1 Groupe de Transport with Farman 222s and Amiot 143s​

In North Africa

4 Groupes de Chase with D520s
2 Groupes de Chase with Hawk 75As
5 Groupes de Bombardement with Leo 451s
4 Groupes de Bombardement with DB-7s
2 Groupes de Reconnaissance with M.B.174s and 175s
2 Groupes de Reconnaissance with Potez 63.11s
1 Groupe de Reconnaissance with Martin 167s
1 Groupe de Transport with Potez 54s and 65s​

In West Africa

1 Groupe de Chase with Hawk 75As
3 Groupes de Bombardement with Martin 167s
1 Groupe de Reconnaissance with Potez 63.11s​

In Madegascar

1 mixed squadron of Potez 25s and 63.11s​

In Syria and the Lebanon

1 Groupe de Chasse with M.S.406s
1 Groupe de Bombardement with Martin 167s
1 Groupe de Reconnaissance with Potez 63.11s
6 squadrons with obsolete Potez 25s and 29s​

A number of the above units were below establishment but the OTL Vichy Air Force still had between 700 and 800 aircraft.

 

[Archibald]

The move to North Africa started on June 15 and continued for ten days, until the Armistice. Facing an uncertain future, the Armée de l'air logically flew to safety all of those modern aircrafts build at high difficulty or bought at a cost in the United States. What happened however was there was no logistical support for them waiting in North Africa.
That was an interesting starting point nonetheless for FFO "great move"

 

[Archibald]

Will the Japanese invade in the first place? The Algiers Government of this TL is an ally of Britain and the Dutch Government in Exile. Although the British forces in the area are even weaker than they were in 1941 the Royal Navy hasn't had the heavy loses suffered between July 1940 and December 1941 yet and it has the support of the French navy in the Mediterranean.

Either the Japanese don't invade at all or they go "the whole hog" and take all the British and Dutch colonies they can at the same time. The Japanese Government will know that doing that will bring America into the war 18 months earlier too so the Japanese have to take the Philippines, Guam and Wake while they are at it as well.

I said it earlier: Japan doesn't invade, at least not before Pearl Harbor. OTL (limited) invasion of Indochina by Japan happened in September 1940 OTL doesn't exists.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

For comparison with the Vichy air forces overseas in Post 42 this is the French Overseas Air Forces on 10th May 1940 according to Dr. Leo Niehorster's website.

North Africa

2 Groupes de Chasse

G.C. I/6 (Morane 406 ) Oran-La Senia (Algeria)
G.C. I/10 (Morane 406) Oran-La Senia (Algeria)​

4 Escadrilles Régionale de Chasse - Regional Fighter Flight

E.R.C. 571 (Dewoitine 510) Casablanca (Morroco)
E.R.C. 572 (Spad 510) Sidi-Ahmed (Tunisia)
E.R.C. 573 (Dewoitine 510) Casablanca (Morroco)
E.R.C. 574 (Morane 406) Sidi-Ahmed (Tunisia)​

9 Groupes de Bombardement

G.B. II/62 (Glenn-Martin 167F) Meknès (Morroco)
G.B. II/63 (Glenn-Martin 167F) Marrakech (Morroco)
G.B. I/19 (Bloch 210 and Douglas DB-7) Médiouna (Morroco)
G.B. II/19 (Bloch 210 and Douglas DB-7) Médiouna (Morroco)
G.B. II/61 (Bloch 210 and Douglad DB-7) Médiouna (Morroco)
G.B. I/32 (Douglas DB-7) in transit
G.B. II/32 (Douglas DB-7) in transit
G.B. I/25 (Bloch 200) Sidi-Ahmed (Tunisia)
G.B. II/25 (Lioré et Olivier 257 bis) Bougie (Algeria)​

1 Groupe de Reconnaissance

G.R. I/61 (Glenn-Martin 167F) Médiouna (Morroco)​

7 Groupes Aérien d'Observation - Air Observation Squadrons - one at half strength

G.A.O. 581 (Potez 63.11) Marrakech (Morroco)
G.A.O. 582 (Potez 63.11) Fès (Morroco)
G.A.O. 584 (Potez 63.11) Sétif (Algeria)
G.A.O. 1/585 (Potez 25 & 29) Alger-Maison Blanche (Algeria) - G.A.O. 2/585 was in Syria
G.A.O. 586 (Potez 63.11) Tunis (Tunisia)
G.A.O. 587 (Potez 25 & 29) Agadir (Morroco)
G.A.O. 590 (Potez 25 & 29) Gabès (Tunisia)​

2 Escadrilles Saharienne - Saharan Flights

E.S. 588 (Potez 25, 29 & 540) Colomb-Béchar (Algeria)
E.S. 591 (Potez 25, 29 & 540) Toggourt (Algeria)​

3 Escadrille de Police et de Surveillance - Police and Surveillance Flight

E.P.S. 2/583 (Potez 25 & 29) Oran (Algeria)
E.P.S. 2/585 (Potez 25 & 29) Alger & Toggourt (Algeria)
E.P.S. 2/589 (Potez 25 & 29) Meknès (Morroco)​

Middle-East

1 Groupe de Chasse

G.C. I/7 (Morane 406) Rayack (Lebanon)​

1 Groupe de Bombardement

G.B. I/39 (Glenn-Martin 167F) Rayack (Lebanon)​

1 Groupe de Reconnaissance

G.R. II/39 (Potez 63.11) Damas (Syria)​

1 Groupe Aérien d'Observation - Air Observation Squadrons at half strength

G.A.O. 1/583 (Potez 63.11) Alep (Syria)​

5 Escadrilles d'Observation - Observation Flight

E.O. 592 (Potez 25 & 29) Rayack (Lebanon)
E.O. 593 (Potez 25 & 29) Alep (Syria)
E.O. 594 (Potez 25 & 29) Damas (Syria)
E.O. 595 (Potez 25 & 29) Palmyre (Syria)
E.O. 596 (Potez 25 & 29) Deir ez-Zor (Syria)​

Indochina

2 Groupes Aérien Autonome

G.A.A. 41 with one bomber flight and one reconnaissance flighs

E.R. 1/41 (Potez 25) Pursat (Cambodia)
E.B. 2/41 (Farman 221) Tong (Tonkin)​

G.A.A. 42 with one bomber flight and one reconnaissance flight

E.R. 1/42 (Potez 25) Pursat (Cambodia)
E.B. 2/42 (Potez 542) Tan-Son-Nhut (Cochinchina)​

2 Groupes Aérien Mixte - Composite Squadrons

G.A.M. 595 with one observation flight

E.O. 1/595 (Potez 25) Dong-Hoï (Annam)​

G.A.M. 596 with one observation flight

E.O. 1/596 (Potez 25) Tourane / Da Nang (Annam)​

Commandement des Bases du Sud - Southern Bases Command (Indochina)

Esc. 1/C.B.S. (CAMS 37, CAMS 55 and 55Lioré et Olivier 130) Cat-Laï (Cochinchina)​

French Somali Coast

Détachement Air (Potez 25, 29 and 631) Djibouti​

French West Africa

One fighter flight

Esc. n°6 (Dewoitine 501) Dakar-Ouakam (Senegal)​

Groupe Aérien Mixte - Composite Squadron

G.A.M. 43 (Farman 222, Potez 25 and Potez 542) Thiès (Senegal)​

Madagascar

Groupe Aérien Mixte - Composite Squadron

G.A.M. 555 (Potez 25 & 29) Ivato​

 

[Some Bloke]

Either the Japanese don't invade at all or they go "the whole hog" and take all the British and Dutch colonies they can at the same time. The Japanese Government will know that doing that will bring America into the war 18 months earlier too so the Japanese have to take the Philippines, Guam and Wake while they are at it as well.

Seeing as the Japanese could barely pull off all these attacks simultaneously in December 1941,
I don't see how they could even think of trying in autumn 1940

 

[Some Bloke]

Questions on chronology re: Africa.

Assuming the French try to evacuate their most intact/modern forces to North Africa,
how long will that take with sea lift capacity, ports for unloading, contested airspace etc.

Once these forces (how many) arrive, how long would it take them to reorganise.
Will we see a French offensive concurrent with, or even before Operation Compass.

With East Africa (Somaliland) how long would it take to shift forces from Syria or Madagascar
to reinforce General Legentilhomme?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

These are from some notes I made many years ago from Volume I of The War At Sea.

27,936 evacuated in the preliminary evacuation of Dunkirk
338,226 evacuated in Operation Dynamo itself
191,870 evacuated in Operations Cycle and Ariel including

141,171 British
18,246 French
24,352 Polish
4,938 Czech
163 Belgian​

558,032 Total of which 368,441 were British and 189,541 were Allied.​

Another 10,000 allied troops were evacuated from French Mediterranean ports and AFAIK the French division that fought in Norway was in the UK when France surrendered.

After deducting the 30,000-odd Belgians, Czechs and Poles that leaves over 160,000 French troops. AFAIK all but a few thousand of the French service personnel in Britain asked to be repatriated to France after the Armistice IOTL, but ITTL they initially remain in the UK for the duration of the invasion scare and then subject to enough shipping being available are sent to North Africa.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

From the same source as the French Air Force, this is the order of battle of the French Army in North Africa on 10th May 1940.

Troupes du Maroc

1 infantry division (2nd Moroccan) and another (3rd Moroccan) forming
1 cavalry brigade (5th)
1 tank brigade (522nd GBC)
1 cavalry regiment (2nd Foreign Legion)
1 light infantry regiment (25th BILA)​

Algérie (XIXe Région Militaire)

4 infantry divisions (85th, 181st, 182nd and 183rd African Infantry) and the Front Est Saharien with the status of a division.
1 cavalry regiment (2nd RCA)
1 tank battalion (64th BCC)
1 light infantry battalion (21st BILA)​

Commandement Supérieur des Troupes de Tunisie (CSTT)

5 infantry divisions (81st, 81nd, 84th, 88th and 180th African Infantry)
1 light cavalry division (6th DLC)
1 tank brigade (521st)
1 cavalry brigade (4th)
2 cavalry regiments (1st Foreign Legion and 3rd RCA)​

Of the above 2 infantry divisions, the cavalry division, the tank brigade and one cavalry regiment belonged to the Front Sud-Tunisien.

 

[Archibald]

Questions on chronology re: Africa.

Assuming the French try to evacuate their most intact/modern forces to North Africa,
how long will that take with sea lift capacity, ports for unloading, contested airspace etc.

Once these forces (how many) arrive, how long would it take them to reorganise.
Will we see a French offensive concurrent with, or even before Operation Compass.

With East Africa (Somaliland) how long would it take to shift forces from Syria or Madagascar
to reinforce General Legentilhomme?

I'll try do answer these questions.

Evacuation is decided around June 15, 1940. The fight in Metropole dies out in Banyuls (near the Spanish border on the Mediterranean coast) August 15, 1940. Exactly two months. Whatever floats and flies is used at full capacity, with a stopover in Corsica if needed.

 

[Johannes Parisiensis]

If a pro-Allies government exiles itself in North Africa and install in the sole part of the metropolis out of range of the Axis, they might have more legitimity among the colonial governors than the quislings the Nazis would set up to rule Occupied France, meaning they would put at the Allies' benefit the wealth of their colonies (wood, minerals such as gold, iron or uranium, crops such as rubber and men).

The move to North Africa started on June 15 and continued for ten days, until the Armistice. Facing an uncertain future, the Armée de l'air logically flew to safety all of those modern aircrafts build at high difficulty or bought at a cost in the United States. What happened however was there was no logistical support for them waiting in North Africa.
That was an interesting starting point nonetheless for FFO "great move"

Part of Romain Gary's La Promesse de l'aube is about how he managed to sneak up to a plane he flew from France to French North Africa, where he found several other pilots with whom he went to London.

 

[Archibald]

The Somaliland campaign last nearly a year from June 1940 to May 1941.

 

[Archibald]

Hey Johannes, if you want to contributes to the FTL / FFO adventure, you are welcome. Here http://1940lafrancecontinue.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=14 (it also works for english speaking people that are interested in the project. We all speak english and have good translators).

 

[Logan2879]

I'll try do answer these questions.

Evacuation is decided around June 15, 1940. The fight in Metropole dies out in Banyuls (near the Spanish border on the Mediterranean coast) August 15, 1940. Exactly two months. Whatever floats and flies is used at full capacity, with a stopover in Corsica if needed.

I have a question I estimate between 300,000 - 450,000 french troops could have evacuated from France through the Med, is this possible?

 

[Archibald]

I've just checked. Numbers are
- 885 000 people
of which,
- 520 000 French soldiers
and
- 350 000 metric tons of industrial equipment.

These numbers includes evacuation from Bordeaux and Bayonne on the Atlantic.

The Med' alone has 550 000 people evacuated.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Have a look at this

https://www.google.fr/search?q="france+fights+on"archibald+&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b&gfe_rd=cr&ei=ODMpWY-4H8zHXuWhurgK#q="france+fights+on"archibald+site:www.alternatehistory.com

http://1940lafrancecontinue.org/forum/

Yes they can. Battle of France lasts until August 15, 1940.

First immediate casualty is North African campaign. IOTL it lasted until May 1943. With France helping the British, it is over by October 1940 (OTL the British by themselves very nearly bet the Italian late January 1941, but the Afrika Korps turned the tide).

Per lack of North African campain main fights turns to the Balkans. Bir Hakeim become Kummanovo, and the Afrika Korps should have been the Albania Korps, except nobody cares about Albania, so Rommel decides for Skanderberg (= Alexander the great)

Corsica: it will be invaded in a OTL-Crete-like large paratrooper operation (called operation Herkules). It happens in February-March 1941. Why not earlier? Because Germany is exhausted fighting in France until august 15, 1940, which makes for a worse Battle of Britain. The Luftwaffe suffers a lot more than OTL.

By the way, German paratroopers are decimated in Corsica, making Crete invasion impossible.

The French Air force will start with slightly upgraded D-520Ms until 1941, after they worn out they will go for more Curtiss H-75s, that is, P-40 Hawk 81s and 87s, before stumbling on the NA-73X prototype and loving it and helping to get the Mustang off the ground earlier than OTL.

I'll try do answer these questions.

Evacuation is decided around June 15, 1940. The fight in Metropole dies out in Banyuls (near the Spanish border on the Mediterranean coast) August 15, 1940. Exactly two months. Whatever floats and flies is used at full capacity, with a stopover in Corsica if needed.

IMHO having the Battle of France lasting until the middle of August is too optimistic and the middle of July is more realistic.

According to the map that I am looking at the Germans had occupied about two-thirds of France between 4th and 22nd June 1940. They reached Dijon on the 16th, Lyon on the 20th, Grenoble on the 22nd and were about 150 miles from Marseilles. On the west side of the country the Germans were about 20 miles from Bordeaux by the 22nd and reached St Jean De Luz on the border with Spain on 27th June (admittedly 5 days after the OTL Armistice).

IMHO a conservative estimate is that by 6th July (that is 2 weeks after the OTL Armistice) the Germans would have reached Perpignan (via Bordeaux and Toulouse) and Marseilles (via Lyon).

Meanwhile the Italians would have broken through the Alps because the French troops defending them would have been withdraw to prevent them from being trapped by the Germans advancing into their rear and because IMHO they will be needed to form the rear guards for Marseilles and Toulon.

IMHO the French have until the middle of July 1940 to evacuate as many people as possible with priority given to saving technicians such as air force mechanics. However, it is very likely that conditions at the evacuation ports would have been chaotic and prevented an orderly evacuation. Instead it would have been every man for himself.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

...

IMHO the French have until the middle of July 1940 to evacuate as many people as possible with priority given to saving technicians such as air force mechanics. However, it is very likely that conditions at the evacuation ports would have been chaotic and prevented an orderly evacuation. Instead it would have been every man for himself.

Out of conservatism I'd calculate it as NOM. presents it. Tho the German mechanized forces were near the end of their rope in mid June. They started the campaign at 50% strength in tanks & the air forces was reaching 2/3 strength. The infantry were having difficulty keeping up as well. Logistically there is only one major trunk railway through central France to the south. If the French manage to break a couple key bridges on that railroad the Germans will have to divert their primary thrust to the Med coast the long way round via the western coastal region.

The main thing to remember when calculating numbers is the French priority for evacuation was to skilled technicians, and staff. Riflemen can be trained in a few weeks & battalion cadre in six months or a year, but the technical staff & skilled leaders/planners take years or decades to build up. While the numbers for combat forces would look thin in 1940, or part of 41 a million man army is quite possible in 1942.

Another minor point is the surviving Polish code breakers were trapped in Vichy France, where they remained until early 1943. OTL their depth of understanding of how the Enigma machines worked and were used was lost to the Brits. This added months to the British efforts to unravel the entirre system.

 

[Archibald]

ninja'd by Carl S.

You are too pessimistic.
I can tell you this was hotly debated and wargamed altogether, and early August wasn't that optimistic (I've heard some scenarios had a small corner of Southern France holding until September).
It seems the key issue often underestimated is German forces slowing down mid June (around OTL armistice) because they were overstretched, just like the Wallies in the fall of 1944 (except North > South instead of West > East, but France is an pretty symetrical hegaxon).
That's overstretching and slowing down has been discussed a lot, some readers believe it could have happened, others not. Admittedly, it is a critical point in the FTL scenario.

The French government reorganize around Toulouse and Marseille. The Rhone valley is a bottleneck stuck between Massif Central and Alpes, giving a major advantage to defense.
Bordeaux isn't really relevant: it is used as long as possible but given up early July. Most of the Atlantic coast isn't really useful, the main effort is around Marseille and Toulon and the Mediterranean, so Germans are left overstretching on South-West France, the most of the defence being around Toulouse.
Having grown there, I can tell you the land stretching between Bordeaux and the Spanish border is mostly empty space, except if your panzer engines run on sand and pine trees.

For example, there is one squadron left to defend South-West airspace: a dozen of Bloch MB-152s, reinforced by whatever MB-155s they can get their hands on (Bloch = Dassault = Mérignac = near Bordeaux). I wrote their adventures ten years ago.

An example of a the possible German overstretch is Me-109s being limited by range, as usual, and it is not a matter from leaping to a new airstrip southward: they are deliberately destroyed by retreating French troops). From a brief moment late June and early July, escort has to go to the longer ranged Me-110s, with their usual caveats. Even a MS-406 can score against a 110.

Also, from early June French troops and aviation fought much harder, lessons had been learned the hard way, but too late.
(I made a mistake: I thought the fight stopped on August 15 but it actually stops on August 9).

 

[Archibald]

However, it is very likely that conditions at the evacuation ports would have been chaotic and prevented an orderly evacuation. Instead it would have been every man for himself.

Nope. This is no longer Dunkirk madness. The French government takes strong steps to get an organized move (as much as possible of course). By the way, De Gaulle isn't the imediate star of the show. Bar Paul Reynaud growing a spine, the FTL authors collected an impressive number of forgotten strong personalities (such as George Mandel, but there are a bunch of others, such as Pierre Brossolette, Jules Moch, Roland de Margerie...).
Think Jeandebueil Unwanted clairvoyant TL but transposed in 1940. I'm trying hard to get Jeandebueil enlisted in the FTL, but he is too busy )

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Bayonne near the Spanish border is actually the last major French port on the Atlantic coast. It would be useful for last minute evacuation. it was similar in capacity to ports like St Malo, Dunkirk, Ostende ...