Communist Germany 1919 and a stronger Comintern.

[Imperial Advocate]

In 1919, thanks to better preparation along with a more divisive Ebert government, the Spartacists seize power in Berlin and bring about a Soviet-style socialist republic in Germany. Of course, the German reds will fight a civil war in Germany against anti-communist factions but for the sake of this timeline, the German reds beat the German whites. With the success of the German Revolution, the Russian Red Army is able to defeat the whites earlier and move into Eastern Europe (i.e. Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland) along with supporting the nascent Hungarian Soviet Republic. With a stronger communist movement in Central/Eastern Europe, Austria is overrun by the German-Hungarian red armies while the newborn republics of Poland and Czechoslovakia are swept aside. The Hungarian-Romanian War ends with a total communist victory and the conquest of Romania by the Hungarian-Soviet Red Armies. The Bulgarians also have a home-grown communist revolution and attack Yugoslavia along with the help of the Hungarian-Soviet Red Army. The Turkish nationalists also de facto allied with the communists due to a common goal to expel the allied armies.

Meanwhile, the allies tried their best to contain communist expansionism. Much like Russia IOTL, the allied would intervene in the German Revolution, occupying the Rhineland, Baden-Wuttermburg, and maybe even the Ruhr like IOTL. The Italian fascists still rise to power (perhaps earlier than OTL due to a more violent 1919-1920 Red Years) and intervene in the Balkans to contain communism. Eventually, the allies and communist armies agree to peace no less than 1922-1923, with both sides mutually exhausted. The allies support 'white' states in the Rhineland and Baden-Wurttemberg along with the Danish annexing all of Schleswig. The Italians are able to support a 'white' Yugoslavia made of Slovenia, Croatia, and Western Bosnia. The Italians also annex Albania earlier than OTL, probably sometime in the early-1920s. The allies also greenlight the Japanese annexation of Russian Outer Manchuria ITTL, which the Soviets reluctantly accept.

So what will borders and alliances be like in this alternate world? Will the allies be able to put up a strong anti-Comintern alliance in the face of a stronger Comintern bloc in an alternate WW2? Will the red Germans and Soviets stick together to make an uber-powerful Comintern? Discuss shall we...

 

[Imperial Advocate]

The world sometime in the 1930s.

Possible alliances of TTL's Second World War.

 

[Beatriz]

How is Persia a British posession?

 

[Imperial Advocate]

How is Persia a British posession?

Not a possession per say, just sphere of influence.

 

[Aubreyyy]

I think the big issue with this is I dont know if France or Britain could actually intervene in the German civil war at a serious scale. There was a serious risk of massive strikes in France and Britain over them potentially just military supporting the Polish during the Polish-Soviet War. People were sick and tired of war and there would be a huge backlash to starting another war with Germany a year after the last one ended. Also I doubt the Germans would need to invade Austria. If the post war treaties are already irrelevant Karl Renner would probably just take the opportunity to get Anchluss 20 years earlier and willingly join the reds.

 

[Imperial Advocate]

I think the big issue with this is I dont know if France or Britain could actually intervene in the German civil war at a serious scale. There was a serious risk of massive strikes in France and Britain over them potentially just military supporting the Polish during the Polish-Soviet War. People were sick and tired of war and there would be a huge backlash to starting another war with Germany a year after the last one ended.

Very valid point. I was debating fiercely in my head on whether or not the Anglo-French would have the will for a prolonged occupation of the Ruhr-Rhine along with Baden-Wurttemberg. Plus, the Brits are going to be busy in the Middle East and their empire (i.e. Arab Revolts, Irish rebellion, Egyptian and Indian troubles, etc...) rather than get involved in another bloody war with the Germans. So this makes it mostly the French along with their Belgian junior partners who are going to seriously intervene.

Though my problem is that the French would want the Germans to sign the Versailles to pay their (tremendous) war debt and damage, plus, seeing a reinvigorated communist Germany taking back their territory (along with Austria and Czechia) would piss off the French (especially the likes of Clemenceau and Foch). Would the French and their allies be able to maintain entities such as the Rhinish Republic and Baden-Wuttermburg or would it be too much trouble to burden and decide to stick with Versailles borders (though this puts the communists right next to the French border).

Also I doubt the Germans would need to invade Austria. If the post war treaties are already irrelevant Karl Renner would probably just take the opportunity to get Anchluss 20 years earlier and willingly join the reds.

Very much true too, the Germans communists ITTL do not sign any Versailles 'imperialist diktats' that forbid unification with Austria. On the other hand, the German reds would love to see their Austrian comrades join their republic. Communist Grossdeutchland!

 

[Aubreyyy]

Very valid point. I was debating fiercely in my head on whether or not the Anglo-French would have the will for a prolonged occupation of the Ruhr-Rhine along with Baden-Wurttemberg. Plus, the Brits are going to be busy in the Middle East and their empire (i.e. Arab Revolts, Irish rebellion, Egyptian and Indian troubles, etc...) rather than get involved in another bloody war with the Germans. So this makes it mostly the French along with their Belgian junior partners who are going to seriously intervene.

Though my problem is that the French would want the Germans to sign the Versailles to pay their (tremendous) war debt and damage, plus, seeing a reinvigorated communist Germany taking back their territory (along with Austria and Czechia) would piss off the French (especially the likes of Clemenceau and Foch). Would the French and their allies be able to maintain entities such as the Rhinish Republic and Baden-Wuttermburg or would it be too much trouble to burden and decide to stick with Versailles borders (though this puts the communists right next to the French border).

Very much true too, the Germans communists ITTL do not sign any Versailles 'imperialist diktats' that forbid unification with Austria. On the other hand, the German reds would love to see their Austrian comrades join their republic. Communist Grossdeutchland!

I think French intervention is definitely possible, but theyd probably have to be more conservative with it and not take so much land. Even if one isn't likely, I think theyd be very fearful of a revolution happening in France. Four successful communist revolutions would have just happened in the span of a couple years it wouldnt be an unreasonable fear. I think they'd only be willing to do things that have almost no chance of causing a real war with the reds because that could mean actual revolution. As much as theyd be disgusted by Germany strengthening, war is too much of a massive risk in their minds.

 

[CHKeeley]

This scenario has always been something I wanted to write just because of the sheer possibilities internationally that arise from it. At the same time though, I think you might be wanking the success of the red tide too much. Some of the timelines for the proposed PoD don’t line up well. If the divergence is the success of the Spartakist movement in 1919 then we can hardly have a Red Finland because the White Guard crushed the revolution in 1918. I also think the independence of the Baltic states would be secure with this PoD - the Red Army’s offensive into Estonia and Latvia was stalled by the end of January in 1919 and with the withdrawal of the Baltische Freikorps (due to civil war), the states will be in a stronger position. Bolshevik troops will be occupied elsewhere.

Hungary is also probably not saveable, although I’m far from an expert. The Soviet Red Army is in no position to intervene at this point, and the German Reds will be fighting for their survival. Unless there’s some radical butterflies, there’s not really anyone to come to the rescue of the Béla Kun government. Poland falling in 1920 is plausible with the chaos now on both the eastern and western borders. This could allow the Soviet Red Army to assist the German Reds in their civil war and could be necessary to have them prevail in their own civil war.

With that established, I don’t think Austria or Romania or Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia or Bulgaria go red and I don’t see Turkish nationalists allying with this bloc unless absolutely necessary.

 

[Sam R.]

>Sparts
KAPD AAUD

 

[Fries]

Fascism becomes more acceptable across the world, but communism is in a much stronger starting position. If a Second World War does break out (which isn't impossible but I think isn't terribly likely) then I'd assume it actually ends in a negotiated peace. The communists probably have to give some concessions in the Balkans for peace, but it becomes a rallying point for communists worldwide to show that the counter-revolution failed.

I wouldn't be surprised if Stalin still seized power in the USSR. Not only was Stalin influential as the party's General Secretary, but he was also a very popular and charismatic person. Hell, most of his personality cult was held up by popular approval. Trotsky is still laughed out of the Union, and the final showdown likely comes down to Bukharin and Stalin. Assuming that Lenin (wisely) views the peace after the Bulgarian Revolution as a time for the USSR to chill out and gather its strength, then it's probably going to be Stalin. By the end of his life Lenin was growing more and more fond of the idea of Socialism in One Country (originally professed by Bukharin but spread by Stalin). Even though the revolution now spreads much further west, the USSR likely isn't the one sparking the Second World War. I assume that the wish for peace outweighs calls for war in most countries (especially America and Britain --- maybe not so much France and Japan) and the world remains tense but cool for at least a few decades.

Out of all of the nations likely to go to war against the USSR, I think an Italian-Japanese alliance (likely with Chinese help as well considering Mao's People's War campaign damaging Chiang's hold and image) is the most likely. The USSR probably stamps out the Italians and pushes the Japanese out of Manchuria and Korea by the mid-late 40's assuming the war breaks out in 1939 at the earliest.

Japan and Italy alone won't be able to break a world socialist alliance, especially with the might of both the USSR and Germany. The industrial resources of Germany only fuel the massive Soviet war machine, and given Germany and the Balkans have little risk of famine I'd argue the Soviet war machine would actually be even stronger without the Holdomor affecting the USSR, especially Russia --- the USSR would likely still be able to export the grain necessary for continued collectivization and industrialization while importing food from Germany and the Balkans.

If nuclear bombs don't exist, or at least aren't made for a long time, then a war between the West and East is probably inevitable --- likely started by the West due to a perceived provocation, but it's not impossible that the Soviet/German governments think it's time to export the revolution (likely after Stalin dies). In any case, this is a huge launchpad for socialist movements around the world but also reactionary crackdowns. The social democratic government in Mexico is deposed by "popular revolution" which definitely wasn't a military coup by the United States, and I wouldn't be surprised if Labour in the United Kingdom and the Popular Fronts in France and Spain are hindered.

 

[Simeon]

Okay - for the broader strokes at least - how will the simmering Russian and other Eastern European nationalism develop with these developments? While the Comintern's much more vast resources will help them plug much more of their shortages, an undercurrent of Russian chauvinism can still prove to be popular in RSFSR which will piss off the other republics to no end - especially Poland. And then, that aforementioned Republic - along with some others - will have an independent streak that both the USSR and Germany will be interested to suppress, which will only further colour their relationships, ideologies, and propaganda negatively.

Hence, assume that the Soviet Union still conducts Russification, how will a Communist Germany react to this? And then - how and where will Russia conduct that policy within the Union?

I do think that these questions are the ones that are going to determine the conditions of the European Comintern in the 1920's-1930's.

 

[marathag]

If Germany tries rearming in a serious fashion in the early mid '20s , they will get invaded by the French, no matter if the Government is flying the Red Flag of Communism or not.

 

[CHKeeley]

Hence, assume that the Soviet Union still conducts Russification, how will a Communist Germany react to this? And then - how and where will Russia conduct that policy within the Union?

I believe the reversal of indigenization policies and the emphasis on Russification in the late 1930s was due to the containment of the Comintern to the former Russian Empire. In the context of war scares and fears of a fifth column, the Soviet government declared that bourgeois nationalism was more of an internal threat than Great Russian chauvinism. The fear was that invading powers could take advantage of nationalist sentiments to undermine the USSR and its warfighting capabilities. Without Socialism in One Country and with a stronger Comintern, I’m not sure this reversal takes place. Or at least not to the same extent.

 

[Simeon]

I believe the reversal of indigenization policies and the emphasis on Russification in the late 1930s was due to the containment of the Comintern to the former Russian Empire. In the context of war scares and fears of a third column, the Soviet government declared that bourgeois nationalism was more of an internal threat than Great Russian chauvinism. The fear was that invading powers could take advantage of nationalist sentiments to undermine the USSR and its warfighting capabilities. Without Socialism in One Country and with a stronger Comintern, I’m not sure this reversal takes place. Or at least not to the same extent.

Perhaps. This puts the stability of Central Europe out of the question at least for the majority of the 20th Century either way, with Germany very unlikely to fully align with the West.

That said - clerical corruption, centralisation, and an inordinate focus and expenditure on heavy industries and militarisation can still damn the Soviet Union and make themselves unable to reform like what happened IOTL. Or perhaps - it will be Germany with the last two points since it'll be going to be one of the major frontlines with the alt-Anti-Comintern Pact and the countless wars that will be conducted. Who knows?

A German-Soviet split can also happen over ideological and organisational differences especially after Germany dominates Western Europe. Ditto for China, Iran, South Asia, and the Middle East.

 

[Qalqulserut]

In 1919, thanks to better preparation along with a more divisive Ebert government, the Spartacists seize power in Berlin and bring about a Soviet-style socialist republic in Germany. Of course, the German reds will fight a civil war in Germany against anti-communist factions but for the sake of this timeline, the German reds beat the German whites. With the success of the German Revolution, the Russian Red Army is able to defeat the whites earlier and move into Eastern Europe (i.e. Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland) along with supporting the nascent Hungarian Soviet Republic. With a stronger communist movement in Central/Eastern Europe, Austria is overrun by the German-Hungarian red armies while the newborn republics of Poland and Czechoslovakia are swept aside. The Hungarian-Romanian War ends with a total communist victory and the conquest of Romania by the Hungarian-Soviet Red Armies. The Bulgarians also have a home-grown communist revolution and attack Yugoslavia along with the help of the Hungarian-Soviet Red Army. The Turkish nationalists also de facto allied with the communists due to a common goal to expel the allied armies.

Meanwhile, the allies tried their best to contain communist expansionism. Much like Russia IOTL, the allied would intervene in the German Revolution, occupying the Rhineland, Baden-Wuttermburg, and maybe even the Ruhr like IOTL. The Italian fascists still rise to power (perhaps earlier than OTL due to a more violent 1919-1920 Red Years) and intervene in the Balkans to contain communism. Eventually, the allies and communist armies agree to peace no less than 1922-1923, with both sides mutually exhausted. The allies support 'white' states in the Rhineland and Baden-Wurttemberg along with the Danish annexing all of Schleswig. The Italians are able to support a 'white' Yugoslavia made of Slovenia, Croatia, and Western Bosnia. The Italians also annex Albania earlier than OTL, probably sometime in the early-1920s. The allies also greenlight the Japanese annexation of Russian Outer Manchuria ITTL, which the Soviets reluctantly accept.

So what will borders and alliances be like in this alternate world? Will the allies be able to put up a strong anti-Comintern alliance in the face of a stronger Comintern bloc in an alternate WW2? Will the red Germans and Soviets stick together to make an uber-powerful Comintern? Discuss shall we...

The premise of a Communist Germany and stronger comintern is literally what happens in my space TL. I'm currently writing a massive redux of it, though. Suffice to say, the world is not as on fire as you thought, far more than two-sided, way more dystopian and utopian at once, and basically a Red wank (that is, unless of course you got someone like Bukharin and Rykov in power, which would make the revolution shoot itself in the foot) compared to OTL.