So, I am taking a look at possibly making an Able Archer 83 timeline, and I just realised. NATO in that time period was EXTREMELY different from the NATO of my previous attempt at such a timeline that had the war break out in the Yom Kippur War. And since there is no way the Soviets could reach the Rhine on this one, compared to ten years prior, how far can they push into Germany in.....say, 36 hours?
Cold War Gone Hot: How far can the USSR push into Germany before the nukes fly?
- Thread starter Ace009
- Start date
Important questions:
1. Do the Soviets use chemicals weapons as they were expected to?
2. How much surprise does their initial attack have?
3. For Able Archer, since the overall targets are the Pershings and GLCM’s, how do they go after them?
4. Does NATO follow through with their plans to use SADM’s to destroy key infrastructure during their retreat West?
1. Do the Soviets use chemicals weapons as they were expected to?
2. How much surprise does their initial attack have?
3. For Able Archer, since the overall targets are the Pershings and GLCM’s, how do they go after them?
4. Does NATO follow through with their plans to use SADM’s to destroy key infrastructure during their retreat West?
1. Yes.
2. Enough that the 11th ACR is nearly wiped out within the first two hours.
3. Not sure, but I will think of something. Hopefully, nothing nuclear (yet).
4. Errr......probably not, if the Soviets are fast enough to stop them. Otherwise, maybe?
So with sufficient surprise and wide usage of persistent and non-persistent nerve agents, there’s a good chance the Soviets could make the Rhine in 1983, especially if they can get a good hit in on the Reforger bases. Even a delay of a couple days to clean up POMCUS sites covered in Sarin residue could buy the Soviets enough time.
The SADMs would actually be a good option to slow them down. The advantage of the SADM over conventional demolitions is that they don’t take a lot of time to prep. You don’t have to wire a whole bridge. Just set the nuke in place, activate the timer, and run like hell.
Still, once the nukes go off, would the Soviets not technically retaliate? And the war could go nuclear? Bonus points for NATO retaliting the minute those chemical weapons go off with nukes.
I highly doubt NATO would go nuclear the instant nerve gas is used. They expected the Soviets to use nerve gas and had nerve gas of their own to retaliate with.
The key part of the use of SADMs is that they are a for certain way of bringing down bridges quickly. That has the chance of limiting the scope of a Soviet advance, especially in the North.
The official line is when the Soviets cross the Rhine, at least if you believe the French.
I think it happens when NATO feels it can no longer fight back effectively without them and it would start with Lance batteries firing neutron warheads.
The question is, how many "on-duty" forces in zero-readiness were in the GSFG and how many troops could be dragged to Germany at the utmost pressure for all one is worth, if, say, a five days ago or a week ago the USSR leadership decided that the incoming attack is inevitable and the last option to prevent it would be to strike first ASAP.
RightHoJeeves
Banned
French nuclear policy states that if the Warsaw Pact crosses the Rhine Moscow gets glassed. But if the WP halts short of the Rhine and demands an armistice it remains to be seen what happens. Reagan and Thatcher will have to decide if Germany is worth a nuclear holocaust.
I am going to guess the war goes nuclear either way. Since, I do not think the Soviets would stop at the Rhine. And I say this because if Seven Days to the River Rhine is any indication, the Soviets really had ZERO regard for what the French thought.
You've basically cited the Ralph Peters's "Red Army". Before the NATO counterattack has a chance to succeed, the West German government asks the USSR for a separate peace and demands the removal of the NATO forces from the German soil. Mostly out of fear that the Americans and the British will use nuclear weapons against Soviet troops located in or near the West German cities.
Why risk the nuclear escalation and surely provoking the initially neutral France if you do have a chance to consolidate the Germany under the red banner and stay on alert while NATO is crumbling under the weight of the prestige, political and moral losses?
Hmmmm. Come to think of it, evidence points in this direction for me. Not sure if it would be actually done. Remember: “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.” - Helmuth Von Moltke the Elder.
I think that if there is no nuclear detonations in the first 36 hours, then, provided that the battlefield is confined to East and West Germany, there will not be any use of nuclear weapons further, at least until someone crosses the Rhine or the Oder.