Say Bill Clinton figures Gore is just as capable of being President as he is, and will be more effective as President without a black mark, and decided to resign. How does that change 2000? Does incumbency push Gore over the line in Florida, or does the scandal actually hurt him more? What would the effects be on Hillary in 2008 and 2016?
Clinton resigns after Lewinsky scandal?
- Thread starter QuinnMallory
- Start date
I think the interim Gore's presidency would boost his numbers throughout all country long. First of all, I think Gore would focus on some environment issues, giving more priority for it then Clinton did. That would make Ralph Nader (from Green Party) not campaign too intensely or even consider drop out of campaign (thinking about that, I think his votes on every states would fall by 40-50%, and majority of them go to Gore's candidature). The next step for the democrat is to cut ties a little bit from Clinton's administration, seen that his approval ratings would drop since he resigned, showing some weakness to deal with the scandal (in OTL he distancied a little bit from Clinton in the elections, and that may have cost him the states of Missouri and Arkansas).
Meanwhile, in Florida (the battlefield scenario on the elections), Jeb Bush approval rating was at 55% at that time, against 44% of disapproval. A big part of the disapproval ratings coincidentally came from the Northeast and East Central regions of the state, known for being deeply republican. Governor Jeb lost support in important counties like Duval, Alachua, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Volusea and Nassau. The reason for Jeb's disapproval right there was the disagreement with some mayors from big cities in these regions, which lead to a fall on his ratings and a worry for the Republican Party about the 2002 gubernatorial election (since he was losing heavily support in red counties). Gore known very well about how crucial the state of Florida would be, and started making rallies in undecided counties like Pinella, Hillsborough, Sarasota and Indian River. In these rallies, Al Gore sticked to environment issues, talking also about the economy surplus and approaching his experience as VP, benefiting from the high popularity of Bill Clinton in that state. To make these rallies even stronger, he showed up sometimes with his former coleague of senate and personal friend Bob Graham, Senator of Florida. That helped him boost his popularity in the eastern and southwestern regions.
As a former senator, Gore made real allies on the senate, which helped him a lot on the election and turning some swing states into blue. One of the senators who helped him crucially was John Kerry, Senator from Massachusetts. Kerry helped Al Gore A LOT in the North, specially in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine. Nader's lower force on his campaign meant relief to Gore and the Democrats, showing that they didn't had to be so worried about fighting against two fronts.
The upper-south was a real shootout for both parties. Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri and Kentucky were most-needed states for Bush, and he began campaigning heavily in these states knowing that Clinton's big popularity would be an obstacle for him. Bush ran very negative ads (and even personal ones) about Gore, criticizing his positions at Social Security and some humor stances like "Gore has invented the internet". In response, Bill Clinton has came out in some rallies organized by the Democrat Party and some fundraisings, defending some of the positions and best habilities of Gore as an experienced VP.
Bush not only went to his crowded rallies down south, he ran radio ads on the west, specially on states like Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada. For his bad luck, in that same week he was endorsed by Evan Bayh, Senator and former Governor of Indiana. Being broadly popular not only in Indiana but in the entire midwest, Bayh was a powerful and strong ally for Gore in his campaign. George Bush called for Jeb's help, but was rejected, since he and his brother always had a troubled relationship and Jeb was trying to recover from a fall in his approval rating. That resulted in a confusion, but George ended up convincing Jeb to help him in that state, what reduced even more his approval, since important counties and cities begun leaning blue. With the Dems having more strength and influence in the state, the blue party started running negative ads about George and Jeb, accusing George of corruption (knowing of the ask for help) and calling Jeb a "Do-Nothing" (since Jeb almost stopped caring about the states politics to try saving George's ratings there), at the same time making Jeb come even weaker to his run for reelection in 2002 (which reduced his approval rating to 37%); killing three birds with a stone. George then decided to campaign in the midwest and in western states, letting Jeb do the most he can do in Florida and trying to hold the polls in good results for him.
After some time later, the campaign trail begins to be even more intense and electrifying. Bush invested heavily in volunteers program, texting messages, yard signs and sending emails to associations; trying very much everything he could do. That resulted in a large number of people in midwest and the Four-Corners area coming out to vote for him. The same was done by Gore, but in minor scale and different states. All these efforts by the two of the candidates polarized the country between red and blue, with people really willing to come out and vote. That atmosphere resulted in a primetime televised debate, which ended with Bush considered victorious for a little bit. That didn't meant for Gore a big loss at all, since he was doing great in the battleground states.
In a great effort, Gore was able to campaign in Colorado and Nevada states, while Bush was desperately trying everything he could to flip states in midwest and north, like Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Tennessee, Minnesota and Winsconsin. That ended not being sufficient, as Gore popularity there was bigger than Clinton had. IMO, ITTL the election would end this way:
The Election of 2000 (if Gore was President)
Florida Presidential Election map in 2000
New Mexico Presidential Election map in 2000
P.S: I think that's more an alternate election scenario WI than only an answer to a question. Btw sorry if that wasn't what you were looking for, i'm a beginner in the forum 😅
Meanwhile, in Florida (the battlefield scenario on the elections), Jeb Bush approval rating was at 55% at that time, against 44% of disapproval. A big part of the disapproval ratings coincidentally came from the Northeast and East Central regions of the state, known for being deeply republican. Governor Jeb lost support in important counties like Duval, Alachua, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Volusea and Nassau. The reason for Jeb's disapproval right there was the disagreement with some mayors from big cities in these regions, which lead to a fall on his ratings and a worry for the Republican Party about the 2002 gubernatorial election (since he was losing heavily support in red counties). Gore known very well about how crucial the state of Florida would be, and started making rallies in undecided counties like Pinella, Hillsborough, Sarasota and Indian River. In these rallies, Al Gore sticked to environment issues, talking also about the economy surplus and approaching his experience as VP, benefiting from the high popularity of Bill Clinton in that state. To make these rallies even stronger, he showed up sometimes with his former coleague of senate and personal friend Bob Graham, Senator of Florida. That helped him boost his popularity in the eastern and southwestern regions.
As a former senator, Gore made real allies on the senate, which helped him a lot on the election and turning some swing states into blue. One of the senators who helped him crucially was John Kerry, Senator from Massachusetts. Kerry helped Al Gore A LOT in the North, specially in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine. Nader's lower force on his campaign meant relief to Gore and the Democrats, showing that they didn't had to be so worried about fighting against two fronts.
The upper-south was a real shootout for both parties. Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri and Kentucky were most-needed states for Bush, and he began campaigning heavily in these states knowing that Clinton's big popularity would be an obstacle for him. Bush ran very negative ads (and even personal ones) about Gore, criticizing his positions at Social Security and some humor stances like "Gore has invented the internet". In response, Bill Clinton has came out in some rallies organized by the Democrat Party and some fundraisings, defending some of the positions and best habilities of Gore as an experienced VP.
Bush not only went to his crowded rallies down south, he ran radio ads on the west, specially on states like Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada. For his bad luck, in that same week he was endorsed by Evan Bayh, Senator and former Governor of Indiana. Being broadly popular not only in Indiana but in the entire midwest, Bayh was a powerful and strong ally for Gore in his campaign. George Bush called for Jeb's help, but was rejected, since he and his brother always had a troubled relationship and Jeb was trying to recover from a fall in his approval rating. That resulted in a confusion, but George ended up convincing Jeb to help him in that state, what reduced even more his approval, since important counties and cities begun leaning blue. With the Dems having more strength and influence in the state, the blue party started running negative ads about George and Jeb, accusing George of corruption (knowing of the ask for help) and calling Jeb a "Do-Nothing" (since Jeb almost stopped caring about the states politics to try saving George's ratings there), at the same time making Jeb come even weaker to his run for reelection in 2002 (which reduced his approval rating to 37%); killing three birds with a stone. George then decided to campaign in the midwest and in western states, letting Jeb do the most he can do in Florida and trying to hold the polls in good results for him.
After some time later, the campaign trail begins to be even more intense and electrifying. Bush invested heavily in volunteers program, texting messages, yard signs and sending emails to associations; trying very much everything he could do. That resulted in a large number of people in midwest and the Four-Corners area coming out to vote for him. The same was done by Gore, but in minor scale and different states. All these efforts by the two of the candidates polarized the country between red and blue, with people really willing to come out and vote. That atmosphere resulted in a primetime televised debate, which ended with Bush considered victorious for a little bit. That didn't meant for Gore a big loss at all, since he was doing great in the battleground states.
In a great effort, Gore was able to campaign in Colorado and Nevada states, while Bush was desperately trying everything he could to flip states in midwest and north, like Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Tennessee, Minnesota and Winsconsin. That ended not being sufficient, as Gore popularity there was bigger than Clinton had. IMO, ITTL the election would end this way:
The Election of 2000 (if Gore was President)
Florida Presidential Election map in 2000
New Mexico Presidential Election map in 2000
P.S: I think that's more an alternate election scenario WI than only an answer to a question. Btw sorry if that wasn't what you were looking for, i'm a beginner in the forum 😅
I think that incumbent Gore would be in a stronger position in 2000 than candidate Gore in OTL. (If nothing else, he would not return Elian Gonzalez to Cuba--he opposed it in OTL but was still hurt by Clinton's decision.) But remember that if Clinntn reaches a plea bargain and resigns in 1998, Gore will not be eligible for re-election in 2004, having served over 1 1/2 terms.
There is maybe a TL active about this idea right now... 
Accountability: The Fall of Bill Clinton
Accountability: The Fall of Bill Clinton January 25, 1998 It was going to be a relatively nice day, the high near 45. Sunday traffic was lighter in D.C., not that it mattered for the President’s motorcade. But despite having the ultimate right of way, it was still a few minutes behind...
www.alternatehistory.com