Germanisation in Poland
Germans begin to march on mass to the Duchy of Pomerania where they enter the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. They march towards the royal duchy of Prussia where they rest before continuing the long walk to the Tsardom of Russia which offers a safe haven. Tens of thousands of Germans settle in Poland in what would become ‘West Prussia’, ‘South Prussia’ and ‘New East Prussia’. The Germans in the Duchy of Prussia also offer settlements to fleeing Germans. Capacity however soon runs out and the region is used as a rest gap for migrating north-east. The Germans and Czechs/bohemians in the kingdom of Bohemia march north into central Poland towards the Duchy of Prussia where the so settle in Poland.
The above image is the population density of Europe in the 1600s.
The above image is the percentage decrease in the Holy Roman Empire during the Thirty Years War. (1618-1648)
This is the proposed German migration movements within the Thirty Years War.
Additional information:
“By 1600, about 25% of Poland's population lived in urban centers (settlements with over 500 people).[9] Major towns in Poland included: Gdańsk (Danzig) (70,000), Kraków (28,000), Warsaw (20,000-30,000), Poznań (20,000), Lwów (Lviv) (20,000), Elbląg (Elbing) (15,000), Toruń (Thorn) (12,000), Sandomierz (4,000-5,000), Kazimierz Dolny (4,000-5,000) and Gniezno (4,000-5,000).
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“In 1618, after the Truce of Deulino the Commonwealth population increased together with its territory, reaching 12 millions that could be roughly divided into: Poles - 4.5m, Ukrainians - 3.5m, Belarusians - 1.5m, Lithuanians - 0.75m, Prussians - 0.75m, Jews - 0.5m, Livionians - 0.5m; at that time nobility formed 10% and burghers, 15%.
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“Urban population of the Commonwealth was low compared to Western Europe. Exact numbers depend on calculation methods. According to one source, the urban population of the Commonwealth was about 20% of the total in the 17th century, compared to approximately 50% in the Netherlands and Italy (Pic. 7). Another source suggests much lower figures: 4–8% urban population in Poland, 34–39% in the Netherlands and 22–23% in Italy. The Commonwealth's preoccupation with agriculture, coupled with the szlachta's privileged position when compared to the bourgeoisie, resulted in a fairly slow process of urbanization and thus a rather slow development of industries.
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The Germanisation of Russia
Tsdardom of Muscovy total landmass equals 1,660,000 km2
It reported that the Tsdardom had 14 million inhabitants
Therefore: 14,000,000, / 1,660,000 = 8.43373494 (Number of migrants divided by the landmass of the principality)
This calculation says there are 8 Russians people per Square Mile. (Presumably inaccurate) This simple calculation is saying that for every Square Mile there are 8 Russian people for one million six hundred and sixty thousand square miles. (1,660,000)
This image represents the Square Mile in comparison to geography.
The disadvantage of this calculation is that it treats towns and cities in 17th century Russia as 8 Russian people per square mile but this is wrong. Despite the disadvantage of this calculation it does seem to represent the vast landmass of Muscovy. There will be a variation in the 8 Russians Per Square mile calculation because of populated towns and cities. However, it cannot be determined how much of a variation but the Muscovy landmass will counteract this because of its sheer size. In conclusion, I cannot see there being 7 or 9 Russians Per Square Mile.
The German-Russian ratio represents the equation of what if a collection of German migrants, migrating to Russia, all migrated to one square mile. If there is 1000 Germans and they migrated to any of the principalities the result will naturally be in decimal places. The problem with this calculation is that migrants are not going to separate and all go to one square Mile. This would actually increase the Germans being russified, because the Germans are separate and not a collective unit. It is also not normal behaviour to separate from your fellow countryman upon fleeing war to find safe haven in another country. (See appendix at the end.)
Nevertheless, this method of hypothesising migrant ‘flows’ is still useful. There is no data of which I know, which gives the population of towns and cities in 1600s Russia. You can insinuate it and paint and a broad brush. The best way to do this to collect the current populations of those towns and cities in 1600s Russia, this is what I found:
Principality and Land of Novgorod: 151,000 km2
- Luga – 38,593
- Pskov – 19,000-20,000
- Izborsk – (ancient fortress, currently a village)
- Ostrov - 21,668
- Cholm - 3,830
- Novgorod – 25,000 – 30,000
- Staraya Rusa - When Ivan the Terrible ascended the throne in 1533, Staraya Russa was a populous town. During the Time of Troubles, it was held by Polish brigands and heavily depopulated. Only thirty-eight people lived there in 1613.
- Velikiye Luki - 98,778
- Toropez - 13,015
- Borovichi - 53,690. The settlement was first mentioned in 1495. It was granted town status in 1770 by Catherine the Great.
- Slanzy – 33,485 - only a settlement
- Tikhvin - 58,459. In 1613, Tikhvin was captured, ransacked, and burned. Its location at the intersection of trade routes which connected the Volga River with Lake Ladoga and the Baltic Sea ensured its rapid development. At the beginning of the 16th century, it was already a widely known commerce and trade centre.
- Ladoga - Used as a prosperous trading outpost and a multi-ethnic settlement.
Principality of Smolensk: 79,600 km2
- Smolensk - 25,000 – 30,000
- Roslavl - 54,900
- Andrusowo - only a settlement
- Vyazma - 57,101
- Bryansk - 415,72
Principality of Tver: 126,000 km2
- Ostaschkow 18,088 (On the Volga River)
- Rzhev - 61,982 (On the Volga River)
- Tver - 403,606 (On the Volga River)
- Klin - 80,585
- Dmitrov - 61,305. The town suffered further damage during the Time of Troubles, when it was ransacked by the Poles.
- Pereyaslav - 27,945
- Uglitch - 34,507 (On the Volga River)
- Rybinsk - 200,771 (On the Volga River)
- Bezhetsk - 24,522
Principality of Moscow: 297,000 km2
- Moskva - In 1547, two fires destroyed much of the town, and in 1571 the Crimean Tatars captured Moscow, burning everything except the Kremlin. The annals record that only 30,000 of 200,000 inhabitants survived. The Russian famine of 1601–03 killed perhaps 100,000 in Moscow. During the first half of the 17th century, the population of Moscow doubled from roughly 100,000 to 200,000. Numerous disasters befell the city. The plague epidemics ravaged Moscow in 1570–1571, 1592 and 1654–1656. The plague killed upwards of 80% of the people in 1654–55. Fires burned out much of the wooden city in 1626 and 1648.
- Obninsk - 104,739
- Kaluga - 324,698
- Kolomna - 144,589
- Chatoura - 33,491
- Kasimov - 33,491
- Pereeslavl’-Ryazansky (Ryazan) - 524,927
- Murom – 25,000 – 30,000
- Vladimir - 345,373
- Yuryev-Polsky - 19,595
- Arzamas - 106,362
- Yaropolch (Vyazniki) - 41,248
- Suzdal - 10,535
- Starodub Klyazminsky - During the Time of Troubles, the town was completely burnt to the ground by the Polish warlord Alexander Jozef Lisowski, who ravaged the area in March 1609.
- Rostov - 31,792
- Ivanovo - 408,330
- Jaroslval (On the Volga River) - 591,486
- Kostroma (On the Volga River) - 268,742
- Kineshma (On the Volga River) - 88,164
- Yuryevets (On the Volga River) - 10,210
- Gorodez (On the Volga River) - 30,658
- Nizhy Novgorod - 25,000 – 30,000
- Bui (Buy) - 25,763
- Galich - 17,346
- Scharja - 23,681
- Tsaryovokokshaysk (Yoshkar-Ola) - 248,782
- Cabaqsar – (Cheboksary) - 453,721
- Tchatsk (Shatsk) - 6,561
Severia: 82,700 km2
- Starodub - 19,010
- Novgorod-Seversky - 13,289
- Olgov (Lgov) - 21,453
- Popowa Gora - (Krasnaya Gora) - 5,906
- Souraj - (Surazh) - 11,640
- Poczep - (Pochep) - 17,161
- Glouchkovo – (unable to find)
- Novoselicy – (unable to find)
- Czernihov – 25,000 – 30,000. In 1623 received Magdeburg rights and the coat of arms, and in 1635 became the capital of the Chernihiv province of the First Polish Republic . Place performances nobility province Chernihiv. By a resolution of 1633, the Sejm established a stronghold (castle starosty) and a court of law in Chernihiv, as well as the dignity of the castellan of the Black Sea and the offices of the land. In 1634, a room in Polanówhe eventually left Czernihów to the Commonwealth. Rzeczpospolita lost actual control over the city during the Khmelnytsky uprising and after the war with Moscow began in 1654.
This image is the Population density of the Russian Empire in 1895. Crucially the population density is before World War 1 and World War 2 where the population density had not changed drastically. Notice how the Principality of Moscow area is highly populated around Moscow compared to Principality and Land of Novgorod in the North. Remember St. Petersburg does not exist in the 1600s, its construction started in 1701.
Alternative Partition of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth:
“In the 17th century, first Polish blast furnaces were constructed in Samsonów by Italian engineer Hieronim Caccio. Apart from iron products, used for military purposes, Old-Polish Industrial Region also manufactured charcoal and glass. In 1782, in Poland, there were 34 bloomeries, out of which 27 were located in Old-Polish Industrial Region. Another major industrial area of Lesser Poland is Zagłębie Dąbrowskie, where in the 16th century, lead, silver, and zinc were found. As early as in the 15th century, coal was extracted in Trzebinia – Siersza, and in the following centuries, especially in the 19th century, several coal mines and steel mills were opened in Zagłębie and in Zagłębie Krakowskie (first coal mine in Jaworzno was opened in 1792). In nearby Olkusz, the history of zinc mining dates to the 12th century when Casimir II the Just set up a mining settlement. Also, in the towns of Wieliczka and Bochnia, salt mines were established in the 12th and 13th centuries (see Bochnia Salt Mine, Wieliczka Salt Mine).
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Primary industrial cities were Kielce, Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski, Starachowice, Skarżysko-Kamienna and Radom. Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski, Starachowice and Skarżysko-Kamienna lay directly in-between Kielce and Radom in a triple line. These four cities lay just outside of Prussia’s annexation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1795. These cities became Austrian within West Galicia.
The possible Germanisation of South Prussia is extremely difficult. With a population density of 28 Polish subjects Per Square Mile, it would take an astronomical amount of Germans to outnumber the Poles. 1 million Germans only equalled 18:28, 1.5 million equalled 28:28 but 2 million equalled 37:28. From these numbers, one can see why the Germans found it so difficult to Germanise West Prussia and Posen and why they eventually decided to use ethnic cleansing and genocide to accomplish their aims. One could say the then chancellor was frankly an idiot, its simple math. Polish population dived by annexed area equals 28. The number of Germans subjects divided by the annexed area equals the ratio. New East Prussia population density was much lower at 16.6 per Square Mile. Now it would require 2 million Germans to Germanise the Principality of Moscow but its 297,000 km2, which is 5 times bigger than South Prussia. The ratio though is lower at 6:8.
Having calculated the numbers required to Germanise Russia and South Prussia, one notices the difficulty each possesses but which one is easier. South Prussia was a highly densely populated area that would really require a high migration, whereas Russia has a hypothetical sparse population through its sheer landmass. In this case, sparsely populated areas are easier to populate as long as the migration is larger.
This calls for an alternative partition of Poland, see maps below.