Is there a realistic scenario where the French succeed in defeating Ho Chi Minh and basically eradicating the insurgency? If so, what happens to Vietnam long-term? Limited autonomy to placate the population (there were plans for some kind of federation), and/or subsidies like French Guiana (which is mostly not ethnically French) gets? I could see international opinion turning against them given that everyone else is decolonizing, and definitely so once the USSR collapses and it can no longer be justified by fighting Communism.
Can France win in Vietnam?
- Thread starter QuinnMallory
- Start date
Deleted member 1487
Short of killing Ho and his inner circle, an extraordinarily tough feat, I don't really see them outlasting the people who lived there after what WW2 did to France. I mean look at what happened in Algeria; despite killing something like 1 million people and it being considered part of France with over 1.6 million settlers and not on the other side of the world and they still lost. That even with the experienced gained in Indochina. A serious problem was the Viet Minh were highly motivated and came from a long tradition of Vietnamese resistance to foreign invasion, plus had weapons and training from the US (especially OSS operatives) and all the captured equipment from the Japanese during/after WW2 as well as Japanese defectors who stayed on and helped fight with and professionalize the guerrillas. The French were really just outmatched and the soldiery unmotivated to continue fighting to the point that they had to use a lot of foreign troops to keep up numbers; even with that per the history I read about the conflict (Max Hasting's book is excellent) there was enormous corruption among the French troops who were selling off weapons and equipment, plus getting in on the drug trade, as bad or worse than what the US experienced when using conscripts to fight the war later on. The structural factors against the French were just too much to really overcome without a lot of luck and a greater understanding of the reality of the situation they were in, something French wounded pride after WW2 was not ready to accept.
What about if ROC beats the CCP?My understanding was that a lot of Viet Minh weaponry actually flowed to Indochina through the PRC.
You'd need (at minimum) a WWII era PoD, something like the Japanese not conducting the coup in the spring of 1945 (probably by having the French governor not run his big mouth about planning on double crossing the Japanese when it's convenient).
The coup meant that, come Japan's capitulation, there was a period of no opposition to Ho's movements. Opposition to Ho only picked up when the British occupied southern Vietnam and rearmed the French there. No coup and that crucial gap between imperial presences is eliminated. Additionally, there's a good chance that if local Franco-Japanese relations had remained good the withdrawing Japanese will leave their weapons with the French rather than leaving them for the Vietnamese, or alternatively if the French governor flawlessly pulls off his double cross the Japanese are disarmed by the French authorities.
@SealTheRealDeal is right on the money.Asian independence movements were sparked by the fact that Japan ran its colonies (maybe puppets is a better word?) with native faces, add in the French military failures making it seem possible for Ho Chi Minh to win, especially with america and the soviets clamoring for decolonization... Ultimately i think you'd either want France to be more successful against the nazis (not hard) or if you still want them to surrender, have the navy defect to the fourth republic/the resistance so that the Algierian government can pose a bigger threat to vietnam, and keep DeGaulle's conservative ass out of the government of france. Maybe an admiral could take the helm?
Vietnam is going to gain independence at some point given it's massive and poor population along with it's status as a protectorate however it will remain a monarchy and possible under French influence.
Deleted member 1487
That would certainly help, but I put their chances to win as less than even the French in Indochina.
Under this scenario the French could make a deal for ROC help. In this scenario Vietnam would still be independent (China can't look like it is helping colonialism) but it would probably have to give Most Favored Nation trade status and maybe a couple of concessions here or there to France and China. The story would be that the French merely wanted to crush the Communists before giving independence and China was will to help out with that. It would have to be publicly announced that was the deal. With that I don't see why the Nationalists wouldn't want to help. After crushing the Communists they would hardly want Communists on their border.
Even if the Chinese communists are crushed, I'm pretty sure the Viet Minh would merely be replaced by the VQNDD, who were supported by the KMT.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Việt_Nam_Quốc_Dân_Đảng
A lot of the historiography has claimed that Ho's politburo (kitchen politburo, whatever) gave the French their best chance at successful recolonisiation by simply de-escalating for negotiations to take place in late '45.
Really, the Vietnamese Leftist nationalism that came to fruition out of OTL WW2 is just too strong, well organised a force for weakened France to beat, particularly when Algeria is also going to explode.
Tripartite govt France somehow can align with an earlier triumphant Mao?
Of course, a world in which the French communists have unilateral power over France's government can just as easily be a world where the Workers' Party of Vietnam are on the other side of a schism with said French Marxist-Leninist hegemony (think 1979's throw down between the PRC and unified Vietnam).
If so, back to somehow aligning with strongman Mao to secure Indo-China.
Really, the Vietnamese Leftist nationalism that came to fruition out of OTL WW2 is just too strong, well organised a force for weakened France to beat, particularly when Algeria is also going to explode.
Tripartite govt France somehow can align with an earlier triumphant Mao?
Of course, a world in which the French communists have unilateral power over France's government can just as easily be a world where the Workers' Party of Vietnam are on the other side of a schism with said French Marxist-Leninist hegemony (think 1979's throw down between the PRC and unified Vietnam).
If so, back to somehow aligning with strongman Mao to secure Indo-China.
Members of the Vichy administration standing up to the nationalists after Japanese collapse?
The closest equivalent to that I can think would be of insuffuciently de-Vichyfied personnel in Syria during the Levant Crisis of 1945. They didn't perform that well, even with Gaullist supervision.
A continuation of the Vichy colonial regime/garrison at Hanoi, until late '45, are they even serving De Gaulle, or their own interests? How bad a shape, physically, are they in?
I feel that the Ho government of the Vietnamese affiliate of the Union contre-impérialiste française could ride the tiger of proletarian and peasant nationalism in Vietnam. Unlike Diem, Giap and Ho are competent negotiators, persuaders, power sharers and—significantly—*intelligent* brutal sods as required. The management of the failure of the land reform campaign is indicative of how a UCIF Vietnam could respond to and manipulate mass public nationalist discontent.
Hell, no war, Soviet and French industrial support, the worst elements of the Northern "reformist" line take hold and you get Korean style "pet" industries in a wasteland. Except unlike Korea the wasteland was not previously heavily industrialised before being deindustrialised by air bombardment and conventional ground warfare.
Can you imagine the self-satisfied, almost Romanian, conceit of a nomenklatura who had French and Soviet support? Their fat, sweaty fingers. Their corpulent masturbatory indulgence. Their almost Gomulkaesque laurel resting?
Noone from such a place could even imagine the lean, vicious fighting of the Duan era; nor, the long term synchronisation and manipulation of a nationalist proletarian movement. It is as incomprehensible as a competent, revolutionary PCF.
Hell, no war, Soviet and French industrial support, the worst elements of the Northern "reformist" line take hold and you get Korean style "pet" industries in a wasteland. Except unlike Korea the wasteland was not previously heavily industrialised before being deindustrialised by air bombardment and conventional ground warfare.
Can you imagine the self-satisfied, almost Romanian, conceit of a nomenklatura who had French and Soviet support? Their fat, sweaty fingers. Their corpulent masturbatory indulgence. Their almost Gomulkaesque laurel resting?
Noone from such a place could even imagine the lean, vicious fighting of the Duan era; nor, the long term synchronisation and manipulation of a nationalist proletarian movement. It is as incomprehensible as a competent, revolutionary PCF.
I don’t have any constructive to add to this discussion, but I just wanted to jump in and say that the imagery evoked in this paragraph made me LOL.
That makes sense. I don't see how France could compete with the ROC in its backyard if they crush the Communists.
The British had first 1 and then 2 Commonwealth Brigades of Elite Jungle fighters that went to remove the Japanese presence and these ended up kicking the shit out of the Viet Kong where necessary but also walking softly where necessary and had proven able to work with Ho Chi Minh in the early days when they first arrived.
When the French forces started arriving they were made up of Green troops and former Marquis so they were not very good jungle troops and did not walk softly - which rapidly turned the population against them while he Viet Kong were able to recover
The British now a Division in Strength seeing the approach the French were using and having been sidelined and ignored by the French decided that their original remit (disarming and repatriation of the Japanese forces) quickly left the AO
So perhaps if they allowed the British to lead the 'pacification' for want of a better word using their carrot and stick methodology and maybe if Ho Chi Minh was able to count on US Government support to pressure the French into setting a date for local rule etc then France can 'Win' but ultimately as everywhere will be on a path for decolonization that satisfies the locals.
When the French forces started arriving they were made up of Green troops and former Marquis so they were not very good jungle troops and did not walk softly - which rapidly turned the population against them while he Viet Kong were able to recover
The British now a Division in Strength seeing the approach the French were using and having been sidelined and ignored by the French decided that their original remit (disarming and repatriation of the Japanese forces) quickly left the AO
So perhaps if they allowed the British to lead the 'pacification' for want of a better word using their carrot and stick methodology and maybe if Ho Chi Minh was able to count on US Government support to pressure the French into setting a date for local rule etc then France can 'Win' but ultimately as everywhere will be on a path for decolonization that satisfies the locals.
The winning move, from French perspective, would be not to play. Grant independence, perhaps keep a military base or two and some economic concessions, and require new Vietnamese leadership not to support Communist China. In long term, Yugoslavia by the South China Sea might be the best outcome.