Brazilian WI: Cristovam Buarque is reelected governor of Brasília in 1998?

Elected in 1994, Cristovam Buarque (back then still a member of PT and an ally of Lula) served as governor of the Federal District for four years, from 1995 to 1999. His term was marked by social programs, the most famous of them being Bolsa Escola (the prececessor to Bolsa Família), large investments in public education and the adoption of participatory budgeting. However, despite his popularity, Buarque was defeated in his bid for reelection by his predecessor as governor, Joaquim Roriz.

Given that his margin of defeat was extremely narrow (about 36.000 votes out of a million), what if Buarque defeated Roriz and served four more years as governor? On the short term Brasília's financial and political situation will probably be much better than OTL since Roriz was a corrupt dolt who sold land for votes, creating enormous slums as a result, but what about the long term?

Buarque's position in PT would almost certainly be much stronger if he doesn't spend four years out of office, so would Lula still fire him from the Ministry of Education in 2004? If not, could he eventually succeed him as president?

Calling @Gukpard @ByzantineCaesar @Miguel Lanius @Monter @Guilherme Loureiro
 
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