I really hope something good happens to Huntsman, he was the best GOP candidate.
Black This Out- A Ron Paul 2012 Timeline
- Thread starter Zacoftheaxes
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Perhaps he becomes Sec of State to improve diplomatic relations with China?
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
Whoa. That was a really good update and nice map for us to see the situation; things are looking quite swell for the Paul campaign. I'm wondering what are the reactions now by the talk radio hosts and television networks with Ron Paul actually having a realistic chance of nabbing the nomination? I'm guessing Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands probably went to Huntsman while the US Virgin Islands went to Ron Paul?
Now for the next few primaries, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana (and perhaps Arkansas) are going to go to the big social conservative candidate Pawlenty while Huntsman or Romney (I hope it's Huntsman) snags Hawaii. As for Ron Paul, there were very few people in the primary in American Samoa and while it won't make much of a difference, with the momentum that Paul has right now, he could motivate any Paul supporters to come out and end up giving him American Samoa's delegates. Puerto Rico is likely to go to either Huntsman or Romney. Illinois would probably be a close race between Huntsman, Romney and Pawlenty. The remainder of the Northeast is going to either Romney or Huntsman.
Now for the next few primaries, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana (and perhaps Arkansas) are going to go to the big social conservative candidate Pawlenty while Huntsman or Romney (I hope it's Huntsman) snags Hawaii. As for Ron Paul, there were very few people in the primary in American Samoa and while it won't make much of a difference, with the momentum that Paul has right now, he could motivate any Paul supporters to come out and end up giving him American Samoa's delegates. Puerto Rico is likely to go to either Huntsman or Romney. Illinois would probably be a close race between Huntsman, Romney and Pawlenty. The remainder of the Northeast is going to either Romney or Huntsman.
I agree with you for Alabama and Mississippi. However Louisiana appoints over half their delegats at the state convention (The vote has nothing to do with it). Paul did well in Hawaii OTL, It could be a three-way race. If Paul keeps up the mometum and his supporters come at en masse, he might actually win a majority for the delegation. I think Illinois might be a four-way race, again if Paul keeps momentum. I think Paul will rear his head in the Northeast, he might even claim a close second or third in New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Pawlenty will come up in Deleware (Gingrich got 27.08%, and he already dropped out).
What about Kansas and Missouri though? Two caucus states with a lot of delegates. Paul winning and currently in the lead. I think, with the proper organization Paul could take the state conventions and win a plurality of delegates.
“With the most victories so far, we're forced to ask the question, is Ron Paul the frontrunner?”- Anderson Cooper, Anderson Cooper 360, March 7th, 2012
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“Well yeah, that's typically what you refer to the guy who is winning.”- Jon Stewart, The Daily Show, March 8th, 2012, in response
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Kansas Caucus Results:
Ron Paul 29%
Tim Pawlenty 27%
Jon Huntsman 24%
Mitt Romney 20%
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“Ron's win in Kansas was unexpected. We excepted Pawlenty to win the popular vote, and that we'd pick up the delegates at the convention. The Super Tuesday wins gave a massive boost in both momentum and funding. We also managed to pick up the majority of the delegates from the territories holding caucuses on the same day, though Mitt Romney also managed a few delegates. At this point, we were confident. Everyone in the field was waiting until April 24th to try and win it all.”
-Jesse Benton, All The Kings Horses
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“Would you consider Ru Paul as your running mate?”- Stephen Colbert, The Colbert Report, Interview with Ron Paul on March 9th, 2012
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“I'm Dennis Kucinich, and I'm a blue Republican.”- Dennis Kucinich, campaigning with Ron Paul after losing his primary, March 10th, 2012
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“We knew at that point, with Paul and Huntsman leading, if we wanted to win, we'd need to take a step to the left, or we'd risk losing our party base.”- Barack Obama, interviewed on February 18th, 2013
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Obama Endorses Gay Marriage
Drudgereport.com
March 11th, 2012
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“I feel the need now to let it be know, I am gay. I always have been, and I'm not ashamed to admit it.”- Anderson Cooper, Twitter, March 12th, 2012
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“Obama and the democrats now officially endorse gay marriage. Let's make sure the Republican nominee will protect marriage.”- Tim Pawlenty, March 13th, 2012
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“It was after Obama announced his support of gay marriage that Lisa Pericolo created “Truefeministliberation.tumblr.com”. It was a far left webpage that most feminists, myself included, were not at all comfortable with. You could sort of call this blog the left wing counter point to websites like Stormfront. When Pawlenty said he wanted to protect marriage, they sent him a laptop filled with gay porn. When The Amazing Atheist made anti-feminist videos, they actively petitioned to get him off of YouTube for hate speech. They were a minority in the feminist community, but a growing and vocal one until Pericolo's arrest.”
-Lindsey Ellis, interviewed in Online Radicals: A History of Extremism on the Internet
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“The first time I heard about Lisa Pericolo, it was when she wrote and article that said all heterosexual sex was rape. I can't claim to see what she did coming, but I'm honestly not surprised by what she became. What still shocks me today is she had hundreds of loyal followers.... some of them still defend her to this day.”
-Cathy Young, interviewed in Online Radicals: A History of Extremism on the Internet
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Alabama Primary Results:
Tim Pawlenty: 37%
Jon Huntsman: 26%
Ron Paul: 22%
Mitt Romney: 15%
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Hawaii Primary Results:
Ron Paul: 32%
Jon Huntsman: 30%
Mitt Romney: 21%
Tim Pawlenty: 17%
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Mississippi Primary Results:
Tim Pawlenty: 38%
Jon Huntsman: 23%
Ron Paul: 21%
Mitt Romney: 18%
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“Our victory in Hawaii and our delegate victory in American Samoa were sadly overshadowed by Pawlenty's double victory in the south. The good news of the night was Mitt Romney running on fumes. He had the money to stay in indefinitely, but money is nothing without support, and his support hit it's lowest point. He'd end up losing Puerto Rico, an expected win, to Jon Huntsman.”
-Jesse Benton, All The Kings Horses
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Illinois Primary Results:
Tim Pawlenty: 32%
Jon Huntsman: 27%
Ron Paul: 25%
Mitt Romney: 16%
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Louisiana Primary Results:
Tim Pawlenty: 29%
Ron Paul: 29%
Jon Huntsman: 22%
Mitt Romney: 20%
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“Tim Pawlenty was perhaps one of the most corrupt governors of the last decade.” - Rachel Maddow, March 28th, 2012
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“This morning on Good Morning America, questions being raised about Tim Pawlenty's connection to NewTel and Access America.”- George Stephanopoulos, Good Morning America, March 29th, 2012
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Maryland Primary Results:
Jon Huntsman: 43%
Ron Paul: 28%
Tim Pawlenty: 19%
Mitt Romney: 10%
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Washington DC Primary Results:
Ron Paul: 55%
Jon Huntsman: 25%
Mitt Romney: 20%
*Tim Pawlenty not on ballot
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Wisconsin Primary Results:
Ron Paul: 28%
Tim Pawlenty: 27%
Jon Huntsman: 24%
Mitt Romney: 21%
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“Ron Paul is the front-runner.”- Wolf Blitzer, The Situation Room, April 4th, 2012
Superaquaspiderbatman
Banned
Ron Paul...the only guy who'd I pick Obama over.
Good job with this TL - exiting to see where it'll go long-term
Good job with this TL - exiting to see where it'll go long-term
Ok, I'll bite. Huckabee would not do better than Paul if Paul were to get the nomination for one simple reason; ever since 1992 both parties have seen to it that 3rd party candidates are not able to compete. Both Ralph Nader and Gary Johnson had to spend most of their money in legal battles over ballot access as opposed to campaigning, and the Republican Party machine would do the same thing to Huckabee that they did to Johnson (and that the Democrats did to Nader).
But for the sake of argument, let’s say that the Republicans don’t crush a Huckabee third party challenge, or it is countered with Democratic money looking to “split” the conservative vote (much like how Nader’s campaign received a boost from Republicans in 2008, who fought to get him on the ballot in several states). Well, we then have an issue with which party he would run as. The most attractive would be Libertarian since they are the largest 3rd party and they have solid ballot access (nearly every state). But good luck trying to go to the Libertarian party and getting them to nominate you on a platform of “I’m out to screw Ron Paul”. I would be willing to bet the Libertarians would actually back Paul in the election and they would crush anyone who tried to get Huckabee the nomination as a Libertarian. That leaves the Constitution Party, whose politics would align a bit more with Huckabee’s. Well, as we can see on the following map, the CP had full ballot access in only 25 states, and not in Texas or California:
Now if the wheels to get Huckabee on the ballot start turning in late 2011, then yes, I can see them getting ballot access in all 50 states. But in this TL we are already at Super Tuesday with no major Republicans ready to jump ship to the CP. And I am guessing here, but from the tone of the TL, it looks like Paul won’t be the official Republican candidate until the Convention. So now any Republican looking at the CP has a very small window to get on the ballot in nearly 25 states in which the CP does not have ballot access.
But lets say Huckabee, after the Convention, decides, ‘OK, the Christian Conservatives will come out in full support to back me and get me on the ballot’ and runs anyways. Well, he probably would start with high poll numbers (one poll had Johnson at 10% in Ohio, and around 20% in his home state of NM before his numbers dropped). Well, all the Republicans need is to keep him off the ballot in one state to utterly screw his campaign. If he fails to get ballot access in Texas (or hell, even Delaware) it will make the argument that, mathematically he simply cannot win and a vote for Huckabee is a wasted vote (same argument used against Nader and Johnson). Now if Paul picks a mainstream Republican as his running mate, then there are going to be a lot fewer defections, especially if it is for a campaign that is dead in the water.
Now let’s say he runs as an independent and not a third party. Well, now he needs volunteers to get him on the ballot in 50 states, and some of them have very imposing and restrictive ballot access laws. (For example, you must be registered as the party upon which you are going to run on a certain date, or you have 30 days from the date of the Convention to gather 5% of all registered independents to get on the ballot). This is very difficult, and would be next to impossible on the time table we are seeing play out in this TL. Remember, Ross Perot (despite his dropping out and then jumping back in the race) announced in February of 1992 that he was running. He already had his machine in place and his campaign staff set and most importantly, HIS OWN MONEY TO MAKE IT HAPPEN. In this TL we are already in March and no word from Huckabee that he would run, if he (or another social conservative) does choose to run, their window is rapidly closing.
In my opinion, in the scenario listed in this TL, if Huckabee or a mainstream Republican does decide to run I think he does very well for a 3rd party candidate. He might even crack the magical 5% mark to get federal funding. But at the end of the day he finishes a very distant third and does not win a single primary.
The thing is, there were a lot of mainstream Republicans who stated that they would not endorse Ron Paul. Romney and Gingrich and all would probably endorse Huckabee over Paul in the election. This wouldn't be a case of some conservative running against a Paulite establishment, this is a case of Paul seizing the Republican nomination away from the establishment, leaving the establishment with no candidate.
Now, it is getting late to launch a new candidacy, but if it wraps up during the primaries and not the convention, there's still time for a candidate who the majority of Americans will support running as an independent and getting a lot more money and endorsements than any other third-party candidate.
There is a funny saying in politics. "Democrats fall in love. Republicans fall in line." Now I agree, Ron Paul would serious test that theory, but at the end of the day I think Republicans would vote for him rather than a 3rd party candidate. Like I said, Huckabee would explode out of the gate. I could see a Gallup poll right after a Paul nomination and a Huckabee announcment of something like: Obama 45%, Huckabee 25%, Paul 20%, undecided 10%. But those numbers would slowly drop, and once his problems with ballot access emerge they would plummet. Lets just pick one state that he fails to make the ballot. Just one. Then we have an image of a "vote for Huckabee is a wasted vote" and the Republicans are not going to back a sure fire loser. Will many of them stay home rather than vote for Paul? Yes, they will. But at the end of the day Huckabee cannot contend with the "wasted vote" problem that every third party candidate (even Perot) had to deal with.
And keep in mind, Paul has some unconventional views, sure. But he is pro-life (which should get a lot of Christian conservatives to at least hold their nose in regards to his drug platform while they vote for him).
Paul's foreign policy views would sink him worse than his drug platform. The Neocons would vote for Obama over him.
And to be honest, in this scenario a vote for Paul is a wasted vote, because Obama is going to sweep the floor with him.
Nazi Space Spy
Banned
Funny how he tied or even beat Obama in most polls. Paul would win the Youth vote, 90-95% of all Romney voters OTL, and the 1.5% that voted for Goode or Johnson. You also see Paul picking up steam in NH, and Colorado due to his social views. His economic views are extreme, but not as heartless seeming as Mitt Romney made his own views to be. Paul is not going to be saying "I am not concerned with the very poor" or anything of that type.
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
Would Ron Paul really win Washington DC? I would've thought that would be a Huntsman win but otherwise I'm looking forward to the rest soon.
Nazi Space Spy
Banned
Ron Paul won a majority of black Republican voters in the primaries. Question is, are there any black Republicans in DC?
No, even in that case it would be too late given a lot of the states petitioning dates were either already passed, or about to pass. It would have had to be by March at the latest.
Paul V McNutt
Banned
They way I see it:
Obama 60 %
Paul 36 %
Protest Votes 4 %
Obama 463 electoral votes
Paul 75 electoral votes
Obama wins all the 2008 states plus Georgia,South Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Missouri, Texas, Montana, Arizona and Alaska.
Obama 60 %
Paul 36 %
Protest Votes 4 %
Obama 463 electoral votes
Paul 75 electoral votes
Obama wins all the 2008 states plus Georgia,South Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Missouri, Texas, Montana, Arizona and Alaska.
Orville_third
Banned
In regards to Huckabee, you're forgetting how right-wing the Constitution party is. They may dismiss Huckabee as too liberal- and between his pardons and certain of his social statements, he might face ridicule instead of endorsement.
However, should someone bolt the Republicans, there's a big chance a lot of Republicans might back them. And let's not forget 2006, when the Democrats rejected Joe Lieberman in the primary- but the Republicans abandoned one of their own to back Lieberman.
However, should someone bolt the Republicans, there's a big chance a lot of Republicans might back them. And let's not forget 2006, when the Democrats rejected Joe Lieberman in the primary- but the Republicans abandoned one of their own to back Lieberman.
True, but it is much harder to wage an effective 3rd party campaign nationally than it is in a state. Florida and NH showed in statewide races it can be done, but I just don't think Huckabee can run as an independent in the timetable we are working with. He would have needed to take steps to do so in 2011, by March of 2012 he won't be able to get on thr ballot in at least half of the states even if he did have an effective political machine in place
Nazi Space Spy
Banned
The Constitution Party is more for states rights in general then social conservativism on a federal level, and are a non interventionist party as well. Ron Paul is almost a better fit for them than the Libertarians.
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