Bismarck chooses Russia over Austria in 1878

[pls don't ban me]

While the thread should be technically in the pre-1900 section i though that since it covers mostly the changes after 1900 is should belong to the in post-1900 section. Said that:

Hi everyone, i was wondering about the treaty of Santo Stefano and the possibility of Bismarck deciding to support the Russians.
While it's commonly agreed that this would result in a German-Russo alliance.
My real questions are:

1. How Bulgaria Changes in the treaty? it will be surely a bit smaller than the original concept but probably bigger than OTL( maybe is united with Rumelia from the beginning and put in the Russian sphere). I assume Battenberg stays as king( no war with Serbia as OTL; Also the first ruler of free Bulgaria wasn't so dreamer and incautious like Ferdinand so no stupid actions like second Balkan war nor dreams of taking Constantinople(without Russian permission) . What happens with Stambolov(the Bulgarian Bismarck) and the Balkan war( considering Bulgaria will be in a stronger position).
2. Does AH run to Ally France or do they stick to the Germans anyway due to the encirclement fear( Germany and allies on all sides) consider that Serbia had the Pro-Austrian Obrenovic at the time. Without the embarrassing defeat in 1885 they might be able to stay in power and avoid the rise of the karadorcevic
3. Italy will stick with Germany( great relations at the time) or will stay as OTL friendly/ally but then switch sides in the inevitable ww1?
4. Russian economy: Being with Germany will avoid the many defeats of OTL ww1, while it opens new war fronts against the Japanese, Afghani and Ottomans. consider that the influence by the Germans might help with a better Russian army and maybe some constitutional reform to avoid the revolution.
5. other butterflies?

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

#2) I expect France & Austria-Hungary will have to ally, as realistically, there is no great power they could ally with other than each other. Both have fairly recent memories of defeat & diplomatic emasculation by Prussia / Germany, although both may also harbour a grudge that the other party did not step in in 1866 or 1870 when it would have counted.

 

[Athelstane]

I won't make a fuss about it, and I grok what you're saying about post-1900 effects, I do think this belongs in the other forum.

Es Geloybte Aretz has an even later starting point of departure (1888), and virtually all of its updates are after 1900, but it's still in the pre-1900 forum.

On substance, I do have to wonder just how durable or intimate a Russo-German alliance really could have been - even if someone other than the unstable Wilhelm II is Kaiser after 1888. The Austro-German relationship (the Dual Alliance) always had Berlin in the dominant role, and there is just not going to be that kind of dynamic with St Petersburg.

Beyond that, I have to say that it's going to be hard for Austria-Hungary to exist in some way in open opposition to Germany, and not just because a Third Republic ally in 1880 is just not going to be an adequate partner to hold off a Russo-German partnership. Even a heavier tilt by Bismarck to Russia seems to me more likely to leave Franz Josef and Andrassy with little choice but to accept worse terms and swallow their spit; likewise, Bismarck would be loathe to completely alienate Austria . . . and the Drei Kaiser Bund limps along in less pleasant ways.

 

[michael1]

A larger Bulgaria leads to war between Russia and an Anglo-Austrian alliance. Germany stays neutral (see Bismark's quote about the Balkans not being worth....). France may well join in too, but will be at least friendly. Russia is likely to lose. Germany is then isolated. Basically the Crimean coalition is Bismark's worst nightmare, as he said, in a world of 5 great powers the key is to be one of 3. Given French antagonism and British reluctance to commit the 3 has to be Germany-Austria-Russia. Bismark's successors mistake was to attempt an Austrian-German-UK alliance.

Assuming Russia backs down in the face of the Anglo-Austrian alliance with Germany sympathetic to Russia. This is still the Crimean coalition, and we're left with a Russo-German alliance facing an Anglo-Austrian one that France will probably seek to join. This is less desirable from Germany's point of view than a strong tie to Austria and a somewhat weaker one to Russia.

Essentially Russia was strong enough on its own to be a factor whereas Austria was the weakest of the three Eastern European great powers. Thus in a Russian-German alliance it's not clear who is the leading power, whereas in a German-Austrian alliance, Germany gets to decide alliance policy and then the two can clearly overmatch Russia alone. Hence sensible German foreign policy is to be friendly with Russia and Austria, but friendlier with Austria, and to try to divert Russian attention away from the Balkans.

Austria's foreign policy was based around nobody else dominating the Balkans, hence their attitude in the Crimean war and the subsequent half century. The 1887 Mediterranean agreements were designed (amongst other things) to ensure that Britain and Austria would bear the brunt of opposing Russia in the Balkans, thus ensuring Austria wasn't isolated whilst maintaining Russo-German friendship.

Italy was opportunistic but was always unlikely to engage in war with the UK before Mussolini, as they were just too dependent on coal imports and their coastline was just too vulnerable (hence their participation in the 1887 Mediterranean agreements)

No Franco-Russian agreement means no (or much smaller) French loans to Russian, Germany is not in a position to replace them so Russian industrialization is much delayed.

In other words, the effects are unlikely to be favourable to Germany. Unsurprisingly Bismark got it right

 

[Athelstane]

Essentially Russia was strong enough on its own to be a factor whereas Austria was the weakest of the three Eastern European great powers. Thus in a Russian-German alliance it's not clear who is the leading power, whereas in a German-Austrian alliance, Germany gets to decide alliance policy and then the two can clearly overmatch Russia alone.

Yup.