Considering that he's already the president of the Chamber of Deputies and that the Electoral College favors the opposition, rather than PDS like OTL (so a moderate isn't so necessary), it's pretty likely. The real fight to see will be over who gets to become the PDS candidate, deciding if the party falls under the control of Maluf (as OTL) or under the control of Sarney, Antônio Carlos Magalhães and their Northeast coronel allies.
Birth and Rise of the New Republic: a Brazilian TL
- Thread starter Vinization
- Start date
Yes, and until his retirement OTL he continued supporting Vargas, here:
On this timeline we can expect many new statues coming
Magalhães as in ACM? I doubt he would run for president. He's just too old, too rude (not a Ciro Gomes kind of "rude") and I think he would rather just stay in the shadows, like OTL, where he managed to become Senate president in the FHC years.
Btw are you going to discuss foreign policy in this time period? There’s some interesting stuff going on.
I intend to do some foreign snapshots after the end of Chapter 1, so after the next part. I will warn you though: I know very little about some of the things I intend to write about. Mexico will be my top priority though.
EDIT: I intend to write a chapter on the Iran-Iraq War too. Maybe something in the US too.
Oh, I meant more Brazilian foreign policy, rather than international events exactly. This is a Brazilian TL after all, I wouldn’t expect you to go into detail about the rest of the world.
Well, maybe not the WHOLE rest of the world, but some countries, especially Latin America.
EDIT: @ByzantineCaesar And I'm also a little ignorant of Brazilian foreign of the time. I guess it started as staunchly anti-communist, becoming slightly non-aligned after the dictatorship ended? Are there any specific events you would like me to cover?
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Loving this tl, didn't expect to see one focused on the re-democratization. Hoping to see more of this. Do you intend to show some of this Brazil's foreing policies? Also, can we expect more Brizola?
Part 10: Endgame
And here we go, to finally end Chapter 1!
------------------
Part 10: Endgame
With the end of the movement for direct elections, the focus was now on the negotiations that would happen to decide who would be the candidates for next year's election. For the opposition, this process was very easy: Ulysses Guimarães, now fondly called "Senhor Diretas" thanks to his commitment to restoring the democratic process, was universally acclaimed as the candidate of the coalition called "Aliança Democrática" (Democratic Alliance), composed by PMDB, PTB and PT, with Rio Grande do Sul senator Paulo Brossard as his running mate. The only roadblock they had was Ulysses himself, who repeatedly voiced that he would rather be elected by the people. PT had a few internal issues, because some members believed that taking part in the whole affair was a betrayal of Diretas Já. These few dissidents would leave the party and later found the People's Socialist Party (1).
Senhor Diretas being carried by the people.
For PDS, the inner cracks within the party, growing larger and more numerous after the defeats in the 1982 elections, now made it explode into a civil war. The real objective was not winning the presidency: everyone knew that Ulysses was going to win (2). The real fight was over who would control the party and its formidable machine after the election. The main combatants in this conflict were São Paulo deputy and former governor Paulo Maluf, the one who led the boycott against the Dante Amendment, and the northeastern coronéis (oligarchs) like José Sarney (king of Maranhão), Antônio Carlos Magalhães (king of Bahia) and their allies, like vice-president Aureliano Chaves.
The ambitious (and corrupt) Paulo Maluf. On the right is his ally and successor as SP governor, José Maria Marin.
At first, the dispute was somewhat even. After 1982, the playing field began to favor Sarney and ACM, due to the fact that all of the remaining PDS governors and most of the politicians were in the Northeast, their area of influence. In an attempt to increase his prestige inside PDS, Maluf led the boycott against the Dante amendment. His failure in stopping the law from going to the Senate was disastrous for his candidacy, but he still had some supporters.
After the direct election amendment was defeated, the tensions inside PDS escalated to a feverish temperature. Sarney, national president of the party, proposed to Figueiredo that the presidential candidate be chosen through a primary, to deescalate the situation. This idea was readily supported by ACM and company. Maluf immediatly objected, saying that the primary would give his opponent an unfair advantage, and pressured Figueiredo to revoke it. The president refused (3), and the primary was held in July 5, pitting Maluf against Aureliano Chaves, supported by the coronéis. He was predictably defeated.
Maluf and Aureliano Chaves, pretending that they're not enemies.
That wasn't the end of it. Maluf, instead of conceding, announced that he and his supporters would leave PDS and found a new party, the Liberal Front Party (PFL), and either vote against Chaves in the election or not vote at all (4). He offered his support to Ulysses Guimarães in the election, a proposal that was quickly refused by the peemedebista (5). The split in the government party had already ensured the opposition's victory, and that the election would be a mere formality.
January 15, 1985. Election Day. All of Congress, deputies and senators, were assembled on what would be the last indirect election in Brazil's history. The results and their evolution were displayed on live television, for everyone in the country to see.
The triumphant democrats.
Ulysses easily trounced Aureliano. Finally, after twenty-one years, the dictatorship was over. Brazil had a civilian president, and was free to walk another path.
To create a New Republic.
End of Chapter 1
------------------
Notes:
(1) IOTL, PT refused to support Tancredo with that very argument. Here, they support Ulysses, who's not as moderate and far more prestigious among the left. This makes the far-left petistas leave PT and later found a party full of far-left loons who rant about revolution, like OTL's PCO and PSTU.
(2) OTL, PDS had an Electoral College majority. ITTL, they don't.
(3) IOTL, Figueiredo yielded to Maluf's pressure and vetoed the primary. In the national PDS convention, Maluf defeated Sarney and ACM's candidate, Mário Andreazza.
(4) IOTL, Sarney and ACM were the ones who abandoned PDS after their defeat. Tancredo accepted their support, and Sarney became his running mate. The rest is history.
(5) Since the opposition already has an Electoral College majority ITTL, they don't need the support of the widely and wildly despised Paulo Salim Maluf.
------------------
Part 10: Endgame
With the end of the movement for direct elections, the focus was now on the negotiations that would happen to decide who would be the candidates for next year's election. For the opposition, this process was very easy: Ulysses Guimarães, now fondly called "Senhor Diretas" thanks to his commitment to restoring the democratic process, was universally acclaimed as the candidate of the coalition called "Aliança Democrática" (Democratic Alliance), composed by PMDB, PTB and PT, with Rio Grande do Sul senator Paulo Brossard as his running mate. The only roadblock they had was Ulysses himself, who repeatedly voiced that he would rather be elected by the people. PT had a few internal issues, because some members believed that taking part in the whole affair was a betrayal of Diretas Já. These few dissidents would leave the party and later found the People's Socialist Party (1).
Senhor Diretas being carried by the people.
For PDS, the inner cracks within the party, growing larger and more numerous after the defeats in the 1982 elections, now made it explode into a civil war. The real objective was not winning the presidency: everyone knew that Ulysses was going to win (2). The real fight was over who would control the party and its formidable machine after the election. The main combatants in this conflict were São Paulo deputy and former governor Paulo Maluf, the one who led the boycott against the Dante Amendment, and the northeastern coronéis (oligarchs) like José Sarney (king of Maranhão), Antônio Carlos Magalhães (king of Bahia) and their allies, like vice-president Aureliano Chaves.
The ambitious (and corrupt) Paulo Maluf. On the right is his ally and successor as SP governor, José Maria Marin.
At first, the dispute was somewhat even. After 1982, the playing field began to favor Sarney and ACM, due to the fact that all of the remaining PDS governors and most of the politicians were in the Northeast, their area of influence. In an attempt to increase his prestige inside PDS, Maluf led the boycott against the Dante amendment. His failure in stopping the law from going to the Senate was disastrous for his candidacy, but he still had some supporters.
After the direct election amendment was defeated, the tensions inside PDS escalated to a feverish temperature. Sarney, national president of the party, proposed to Figueiredo that the presidential candidate be chosen through a primary, to deescalate the situation. This idea was readily supported by ACM and company. Maluf immediatly objected, saying that the primary would give his opponent an unfair advantage, and pressured Figueiredo to revoke it. The president refused (3), and the primary was held in July 5, pitting Maluf against Aureliano Chaves, supported by the coronéis. He was predictably defeated.
Maluf and Aureliano Chaves, pretending that they're not enemies.
That wasn't the end of it. Maluf, instead of conceding, announced that he and his supporters would leave PDS and found a new party, the Liberal Front Party (PFL), and either vote against Chaves in the election or not vote at all (4). He offered his support to Ulysses Guimarães in the election, a proposal that was quickly refused by the peemedebista (5). The split in the government party had already ensured the opposition's victory, and that the election would be a mere formality.
January 15, 1985. Election Day. All of Congress, deputies and senators, were assembled on what would be the last indirect election in Brazil's history. The results and their evolution were displayed on live television, for everyone in the country to see.
The triumphant democrats.
Ulysses easily trounced Aureliano. Finally, after twenty-one years, the dictatorship was over. Brazil had a civilian president, and was free to walk another path.
To create a New Republic.
End of Chapter 1
------------------
Notes:
(1) IOTL, PT refused to support Tancredo with that very argument. Here, they support Ulysses, who's not as moderate and far more prestigious among the left. This makes the far-left petistas leave PT and later found a party full of far-left loons who rant about revolution, like OTL's PCO and PSTU.
(2) OTL, PDS had an Electoral College majority. ITTL, they don't.
(3) IOTL, Figueiredo yielded to Maluf's pressure and vetoed the primary. In the national PDS convention, Maluf defeated Sarney and ACM's candidate, Mário Andreazza.
(4) IOTL, Sarney and ACM were the ones who abandoned PDS after their defeat. Tancredo accepted their support, and Sarney became his running mate. The rest is history.
(5) Since the opposition already has an Electoral College majority ITTL, they don't need the support of the widely and wildly despised Paulo Salim Maluf.
Foreign Snapshot: The (literal) Collapse of the Perfect Dictatorship
A little update on our northern brothers! Also, WIKIBOX TIME!
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Foreign Snapshot: The (literal) Collapse of the Perfect Dictatorship
Brazil wasn't the only ailing dictatorship in Latin America. The continent was, after all, full of them, most of them consisting of military juntas intalled through coups in the 1950s, 60s and 70s. The one exception was Mexico. Ruled by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) since 1929, it was much older and more entrenched than its fellow dictatorships, and its presidents were civilians. This didn't mean it was any less willing to use massive amounts of brute force to suppress dissent, as shown by the 1968 Tlatelolco massacre and the Halconazo ("Hawk Strike") of 1971. It held presidential elections that were mostly a sham, since PRI's power was so absolute that the PAN (National Action Party, PRI's conservative opponent) candidates were lucky if they won 15% of the vote.
The president had the effective power to appoint his successor (the "dedazo", pointing of the finger), who was guaranteed to win due to the reasons already stated. This kind of political system obviously generated huge amounts of corruption, thanks to its excessively centralized nature and overall lack of accountability. Even with these problems, the dictatorship not only survived, but thrived, for a very long time. This happened because the mexican economy kept a steady growth and low inflation from the forties all the way into the seventies (the Mexican Miracle), making sure enough people stayed happy and satisfied with what they had. It seemed so strong that Peruvian writer and future president Mario Vargas Llosa (1) called Mexico the "Perfect Dictatorship".
It would all fall apart.
Literally. Very, very literally.
Ruins of the then famous Hotel Regis.
Mexico, suffering a grave economic crisis since the late seventies, was a rotten, hollow tree, waiting to fall with a decisive blow. That hit came in September 19, 1985, when a 50 second long earthquake struck Mexico City, which was preparing to host next year's World Cup. Hundreds of the capital's buildings, completely unprepared for such an event thanks to years of PRI mismanagement and corruption, crumbled like houses of cards, while thousands more were severely damaged. Thousands of people were killed in what was the single worst tragedy to hit Mexico City in the twentieth century.
International reaction was swift, with thousands of volunteers and billions of dollars being offered to the mexican government. Aid that said government... refused. President Miguel de La Madrid and other high-ranking PRI members and ministers were nowhere to be seen. Not only that, but looting was rampant all over the capital, because the military was not deployed to help in the rescue efforts or guarantee order (2). The leaderless city's population was forced to rebuild their homes by itself, with no aid from the government or from outside. And so they did it. Alone.
Without PRI.
Fast forward to 1988. The government was now hopelessly unpopular. In the 1986 World Cup, president Madrid was mercilessly booed in the opening ceremony (3). Now, in a general election year, the angry population would try to do what was once seen as impossible: kick PRI from power, and not just for a while either, but for good.
Miguel de La Madrid on the World Cup.
Surprisingly enough, PRI's greatest challenger did not come from PAN, but was rather one of their own: Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, former governor of Michoacán and son of Lázaro Cárdenas, one of Mexico's greatest presidents. He first presented himself as the member of a reformist, left-wing faction from within the party, hoping to become the PRI candidate. His position was clearly superficial, since he was not close to the government at all. When he was predictably brushed aside and the president appointed minister Carlos Salinas de Gortari to be his successor, Cárdenas and his fellow reformists left the party.
Now no longer members of PRI, the Cardenistas allied themselves with several small left-wing parties, uniting them into a single electoral force called the Frente Democrático Nacional (National Democratic Front), and began to campaign across the country. But even with the all the corruption, crisis, poverty and the earthquake, they knew this wouldn't be an easy election. Salinas enjoyed the support of the country's main trade unions, most important politicians, the public machinery, and, in case things got real hairy, PRI could very well rig the election. And PAN candidate Manuel Clouthier was not a non-factor either.
After months of enthusiastic campaigning the great day, July 6, 1988, arrived. People left their homes to vote in what would be the country's first real election in its history. The FDN campaign took the measure of setting parallel vote counts, just in case PRI tried to pull a Brazil on them, with Televisa as their TV Globo (4), which was certainly possible.
Finally, the voting stopped, and people went back to their homes to see the first results. And they were promising: for some time, Cárdenas held a steady ten point lead over Salinas, with PAN candidate Manuel Clouthier in third. Then, on the middle of the night, Interior Secretary Manuel Bartlett announced that the counting would be suspended, since the phone lines that transmitted the results were saturated. For many, there was no doubt of what was about to happen: PRI was going to rig the vote.
Thousands of people in Mexico City and other major urban center took to the streets, chanting "El pueblo votó y Cárdenas ganó!" ("the people voted, and Cárdenas won!"). The confusion lasted around two hours, and the results were once again transmitted through radio and television. To everyone's surprise, Cárdenas still held a three point lead over Salinas. It was over. The opposition's victory was simply too big to steal (5).
The Perfect Dictatorship was dead.
------------------
Notes:
(1) Spoilers...
(2) IOTL, the mexican government did refuse international aid for a time before they yielded, and the army wasn't deployed initially. Here, Madrid and his PRI cronies screw up even more.
(3) Look at this :
(4) From the little I've read about Televisa, it seems like it was/is Mexico's TV Globo. Also, the whole Brazil rigging affair of 1982 became an international scandal, one that wasn't forgotten by FDN.
(5) Cárdenas did win the election IOTL, but he got stolen out of the mexican presidency.
------------------
Foreign Snapshot: The (literal) Collapse of the Perfect Dictatorship
Brazil wasn't the only ailing dictatorship in Latin America. The continent was, after all, full of them, most of them consisting of military juntas intalled through coups in the 1950s, 60s and 70s. The one exception was Mexico. Ruled by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) since 1929, it was much older and more entrenched than its fellow dictatorships, and its presidents were civilians. This didn't mean it was any less willing to use massive amounts of brute force to suppress dissent, as shown by the 1968 Tlatelolco massacre and the Halconazo ("Hawk Strike") of 1971. It held presidential elections that were mostly a sham, since PRI's power was so absolute that the PAN (National Action Party, PRI's conservative opponent) candidates were lucky if they won 15% of the vote.
The president had the effective power to appoint his successor (the "dedazo", pointing of the finger), who was guaranteed to win due to the reasons already stated. This kind of political system obviously generated huge amounts of corruption, thanks to its excessively centralized nature and overall lack of accountability. Even with these problems, the dictatorship not only survived, but thrived, for a very long time. This happened because the mexican economy kept a steady growth and low inflation from the forties all the way into the seventies (the Mexican Miracle), making sure enough people stayed happy and satisfied with what they had. It seemed so strong that Peruvian writer and future president Mario Vargas Llosa (1) called Mexico the "Perfect Dictatorship".
It would all fall apart.
Literally. Very, very literally.
Ruins of the then famous Hotel Regis.
Mexico, suffering a grave economic crisis since the late seventies, was a rotten, hollow tree, waiting to fall with a decisive blow. That hit came in September 19, 1985, when a 50 second long earthquake struck Mexico City, which was preparing to host next year's World Cup. Hundreds of the capital's buildings, completely unprepared for such an event thanks to years of PRI mismanagement and corruption, crumbled like houses of cards, while thousands more were severely damaged. Thousands of people were killed in what was the single worst tragedy to hit Mexico City in the twentieth century.
International reaction was swift, with thousands of volunteers and billions of dollars being offered to the mexican government. Aid that said government... refused. President Miguel de La Madrid and other high-ranking PRI members and ministers were nowhere to be seen. Not only that, but looting was rampant all over the capital, because the military was not deployed to help in the rescue efforts or guarantee order (2). The leaderless city's population was forced to rebuild their homes by itself, with no aid from the government or from outside. And so they did it. Alone.
Without PRI.
Fast forward to 1988. The government was now hopelessly unpopular. In the 1986 World Cup, president Madrid was mercilessly booed in the opening ceremony (3). Now, in a general election year, the angry population would try to do what was once seen as impossible: kick PRI from power, and not just for a while either, but for good.
Miguel de La Madrid on the World Cup.
Surprisingly enough, PRI's greatest challenger did not come from PAN, but was rather one of their own: Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, former governor of Michoacán and son of Lázaro Cárdenas, one of Mexico's greatest presidents. He first presented himself as the member of a reformist, left-wing faction from within the party, hoping to become the PRI candidate. His position was clearly superficial, since he was not close to the government at all. When he was predictably brushed aside and the president appointed minister Carlos Salinas de Gortari to be his successor, Cárdenas and his fellow reformists left the party.
Now no longer members of PRI, the Cardenistas allied themselves with several small left-wing parties, uniting them into a single electoral force called the Frente Democrático Nacional (National Democratic Front), and began to campaign across the country. But even with the all the corruption, crisis, poverty and the earthquake, they knew this wouldn't be an easy election. Salinas enjoyed the support of the country's main trade unions, most important politicians, the public machinery, and, in case things got real hairy, PRI could very well rig the election. And PAN candidate Manuel Clouthier was not a non-factor either.
After months of enthusiastic campaigning the great day, July 6, 1988, arrived. People left their homes to vote in what would be the country's first real election in its history. The FDN campaign took the measure of setting parallel vote counts, just in case PRI tried to pull a Brazil on them, with Televisa as their TV Globo (4), which was certainly possible.
Finally, the voting stopped, and people went back to their homes to see the first results. And they were promising: for some time, Cárdenas held a steady ten point lead over Salinas, with PAN candidate Manuel Clouthier in third. Then, on the middle of the night, Interior Secretary Manuel Bartlett announced that the counting would be suspended, since the phone lines that transmitted the results were saturated. For many, there was no doubt of what was about to happen: PRI was going to rig the vote.
Thousands of people in Mexico City and other major urban center took to the streets, chanting "El pueblo votó y Cárdenas ganó!" ("the people voted, and Cárdenas won!"). The confusion lasted around two hours, and the results were once again transmitted through radio and television. To everyone's surprise, Cárdenas still held a three point lead over Salinas. It was over. The opposition's victory was simply too big to steal (5).
The Perfect Dictatorship was dead.
------------------
Notes:
(1) Spoilers...
(2) IOTL, the mexican government did refuse international aid for a time before they yielded, and the army wasn't deployed initially. Here, Madrid and his PRI cronies screw up even more.
(3) Look at this :
(4) From the little I've read about Televisa, it seems like it was/is Mexico's TV Globo. Also, the whole Brazil rigging affair of 1982 became an international scandal, one that wasn't forgotten by FDN.
(5) Cárdenas did win the election IOTL, but he got stolen out of the mexican presidency.
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If Mexico doesn’t join NAFTA there won’t be South American integration. Instead we would see the integration process remain focused on Latin America.
So organizations like ALADI and SELA would get more of a chance if there's no NAFTA?